Patterico's Pontifications

1/12/2013

Jerry Brown: California Will Have Surpluses

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 1:44 pm

That’s what he says:

After years of red ink, Gov. Jerry Brown said on Thursday that California’s $96.7-billion general fund is now poised to end next year with a surplus, thanks to years of deep budget cuts and billions in new taxes approved by voters last year.

“We achieved the position we’re in because of tough cuts … and then the people voted for taxes,” he said. “We broke the logjam by going to the people.”

Schools will be the big winner in the governor’s new spending plan, receiving $56.2 billion in state funds, an increase by $2.7 billion over the last year. That funding is set to jump to more than $66 billion by 2016.

The budget also dedicated an additional $350 million to the state’s public insurance program, Medi-Cal, to help implement President Obama’s healthcare law.

Brown’s budget predicts only the second budget surplus in the last decade, with an $851-million surplus projected at the end of the 2013-14 fiscal year — if all his proposals are approved by lawmakers.

Jerry Brown says we will have surpluses. I say we will not.

We’ll see who is right.

51 Comments

  1. We’ll come back and revisit this and see.

    Comment by Patterico (8b3905) — 1/12/2013 @ 1:44 pm

  2. I read the State Comptroller’s report, Dobyii no Provyii (trust but verify).

    Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 1/12/2013 @ 1:46 pm

  3. president food stamp’s huge tax increases are gonna make failifornia’s rosy growth projections look terribly silly in a matter of mere months I think

    Comment by happyfeet (ce327d) — 1/12/2013 @ 1:58 pm

  4. Obama’s failing economy will put paid to Moonbeam’s projection.

    Comment by SPQR (768505) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:03 pm

  5. They may compromise. They will claim a surplus, but a careful reading of the balance sheet will show that the California debt will “unexpectedly” increase.

    Comment by Tregonsee (12c9d9) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:14 pm

  6. I guess one could come to that conclusion, from this, but I would tend to doubt it:

    http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/01-13summary.pdf

    Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:15 pm

  7. It depends on what the meaning of “surplus” is.

    Comment by askeptic (2bb434) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:20 pm

  8. This is a likely LA Times headline we will see later this year:


    Unexpectedly California has Budget Shortfall

    Comment by Mattsky (c97938) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:24 pm

  9. Jerry Brown says we will have surpluses. I say we will not.

    I believe you misunderstand him. Thanks to him, next year, there will be a surplus of bovine excreta, which he figures Cali can sell to balance the books.

    Yes, that will take one HELL of a lot of bovine excreta for that to happen, but he’s confident he’s the man to make it happen.

    Comment by Smock Puppet, 10th Dan Snark Master and Misapprehension Correction Specialist (98ae1f) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:32 pm

  10. NYT says CA Dem libs are now insisting that the po’ be given “dental rights” et cetera, et cetera. I will place my bet on the BULLSHIT spot.

    Comment by Dirty Old Man (0c7e45) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:37 pm

  11. Also, I hear to tell that California is poised to be THE leader in reinforced umbrella production.

    They estimate that, since the budget will be balanced about the same time that pigs fly, the people will need protection from the aerial porcine droppings, and the surplus will come from the massive influx of revenues on umbrellas.

    I hear he even has a plan in place to wipe out the surplus the following year by offering free umbrellas to the poor, that is, essentially anyone making under $1,000,000 a year, as per current liberal standards.

    Comment by Smock Puppet, 10th Dan Snark Master and Misapprehension Correction Specialist (98ae1f) — 1/12/2013 @ 2:38 pm

  12. Totes nonsense from Moonie. Spending increases, revenue decreases. Continued malaise.

    Comment by JD (840c05) — 1/12/2013 @ 3:27 pm

  13. I see Rico’s not a betting man.

    This is as sure a thing as death and more taxes.

    Comment by gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 1/12/2013 @ 3:46 pm

  14. Credit rating agencies said last Feb. Cali appeared to be mending its ways and might be revised upward:

    “The last time the rating agency gave California a positive outlook was June 2007, when it had an A-plus rating. It now has a rating of A-minus. California’s outlook improved from negative to stable last July after the last budget was passed.

    Revenues, however, remain a concern. Last week, the state controller’s office released its latest monthly report showing tax collections came in $528 million below the January projections in the governor’s proposed budget.”

    What sort of fools were they? My thesaurus fails me.

    Comment by gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 1/12/2013 @ 3:59 pm

  15. If there is an honest surplus for the next two years, I’ll vote for Brown’s re-election. OTOH, if there is not, he should hang ‘em up.

    My prediction: The anticipated “surplus” will go to a public employee raise and then we’ll find out that it unexpectedly didn’t materialize, leaving us another $9 billion deficit.

    Comment by Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 1/12/2013 @ 4:38 pm

  16. How about an initiative requiring budgeting and state financial reports to follow GAAP, and applying Sarbanes-Oxley rules and penalties to all public accounting within the state?

    Comment by Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 1/12/2013 @ 4:42 pm

  17. With all that surplus, L.A. could get a football team.

    Comment by mg (31009b) — 1/12/2013 @ 5:07 pm

  18. The only surplus Cali has is illegal aliens.

    Comment by Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba) — 1/12/2013 @ 5:15 pm

  19. And, since they want more of them, they’ll never tax them.

    Comment by askeptic (2bb434) — 1/12/2013 @ 5:16 pm

  20. So….

    What was cut from the budget?

    Comment by Xmas (03c476) — 1/12/2013 @ 5:16 pm

  21. Cuts….cuts….we don’t need no stinkin’ cuts.

    Comment by askeptic (2bb434) — 1/12/2013 @ 5:49 pm

  22. When enrollment is dropping, why does education need more money?

    Oh yeah, pay raises and union dues/campaign donation raises!

    Not to mention the money for unfunded pension liabilities and money we owe to the Feds (but that’s not real money).

    Leave it to Grampa Moonbeam!

    Comment by Patricia (be0117) — 1/12/2013 @ 6:01 pm

  23. Jerry has kids?
    OMG!

    Comment by askeptic (2bb434) — 1/12/2013 @ 6:37 pm

  24. Jerry’s Kids are in charge of the Legislature…

    which explains everything.

    Comment by redc1c4 (403dff) — 1/12/2013 @ 7:17 pm

  25. In Failifornia, the surpluses will be divided amongst the peasants.

    Forward to our glorious green future, comrades!

    All Hail the wisdom of our wise leader!

    Happy Days Are Here Again!

    Comment by redc1c4 (403dff) — 1/12/2013 @ 7:22 pm

  26. All Glory to the Soviet Five Plan!

    Comment by SPQR (768505) — 1/12/2013 @ 7:24 pm

  27. Brown’s budget predicts only the second budget surplus in the last decade, with an $851-million surplus projected at the end of the 2013-14 fiscal year — if all his proposals are approved by lawmakers.

    Let’s see here, predicts, projected, and if. Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

    Comment by Tanny O'Haley (12193c) — 1/12/2013 @ 7:27 pm

  28. Yeah, and Obama was gonna cut the federal deficit in half by the end of his first term.

    Don’t you believe it!

    Comment by Icy (ea8768) — 1/12/2013 @ 8:22 pm

  29. Greetings:

    Even if there is/are yearly surpluses, what about those more than several billion dollars in state debt. How long will it take these “surpluses” to retire all that debt on their magic books.

    And, of course, how much of that 2.7 billion education funding will flow back to the Democratic party through the various and sundry teachers’ unions.

    Comment by 11B40 (6ec91a) — 1/12/2013 @ 8:49 pm

  30. Well, it had to happen. I mean, they cut $25 billion from the $90 billion budget year after year, you’d expect that at some point it would balance.

    /snark

    Comment by Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 1/13/2013 @ 12:33 am

  31. I guess this as good a place as any;

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/01/america_the_kardashian_years.html

    Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 1/13/2013 @ 5:41 am

  32. California following the Illinois model. Raise taxes 6 billion dollars, raise spending 6 billion dollars and the budget surplus magically appears.

    Comment by Dancrane (b52677) — 1/13/2013 @ 8:47 am

  33. 31. Otra vez, the Dark Age envelopes once again.

    BTW, I did not know he was slumming here:

    “Narciso, the Just One Minute unofficial historian, adds:

    The Germans didn’t run out of Reich marks, either, they just lost all value,

    Posted by: narciso | January 11, 2013 at 10:26″

    Comment by gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 1/13/2013 @ 9:08 am

  34. MFM dutifully reports CA has a surplus, much like Clinton’s projected surplus.

    Comment by JD (840c05) — 1/13/2013 @ 9:10 am

  35. What happened to the High Speed Empty Rail project?

    Comment by daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 1/13/2013 @ 10:43 am

  36. I’m pretty sure Jerry meant to say that California will have circuses …….meaning Sacramento won’t be the only show in the state.

    Comment by East Bay Jay (a5dac7) — 1/13/2013 @ 10:55 am

  37. BTW if anybody is in Orange County, the Grand Jury is taking applications.

    Comment by Patricia (be0117) — 1/13/2013 @ 2:12 pm

  38. Weren’t the tax increases the voters approved supposedly temporary tax increases? If that is the case, wouldn’t the Pyrite State fall back into the black once they expire?

    Comment by The questioning Dana (f68855) — 1/13/2013 @ 2:25 pm

  39. I think you mean the red.

    Comment by Milhouse (c64d93) — 1/13/2013 @ 4:00 pm

  40. Everything is all better now. Honest.

    Comment by Dirty Old Man (0c7e45) — 1/13/2013 @ 8:59 pm

  41. OTOH, if there is not, he should hang ‘em up. be hung.

    I think it reads better than way, n’c'est pas…?

    Comment by Smock Puppet, 10th Dan Snark Master and Misapprehension Correction Specialist (98ae1f) — 1/13/2013 @ 9:11 pm

  42. I’m pretty sure Jerry meant to say that California will have circuses …….meaning Sacramento won’t be the only show in the state.

    Hey, don’t short change him, he’s also noting there will be bread. And sometimes, a beverage.

    Comment by Smock Puppet, 10th Dan Snark Master and Misapprehension Correction Specialist (98ae1f) — 1/13/2013 @ 9:12 pm

  43. We’ll see who is right?

    Patterico, I love you, but I don’t think you thought this through.

    What is right today is what the people want to be right. Therefore I already know that you will be wrong.

    Comment by Amphipolis (d3e04f) — 1/14/2013 @ 5:39 am

  44. In case of any argument between Jerry Brown and anyone with an IQ expressed in triple digits to the left of the decimal point, Jerry loses.

    Comment by Bar Sinister (664312) — 1/14/2013 @ 7:29 am

  45. The man is delusional.

    Comment by mojo (8096f2) — 1/14/2013 @ 8:56 am

  46. The Wall Street Journal’s Political Diary reported last Friday that because of Proposition 30 (which increased the sales tax and top income tax rates) and Proposition 39, requiring corporations to pay taxes based on their sales in the state, there will be around $8 billion to $11 billion extra going to Sacramentoi each year ($2 billion of that from Prop. 39)

    Now the state of California has borroiwed $25 billion over the past decade from special funds, schools, and local governments; $10 billion from the feds for unemployment benefits; and $73 billion from capital markets for infrastructure improvements.

    Governor Brown says he’s got $2.7 billion in additional funding for schools, $500 million for universities and a $1 billion reserve fund.

    But local governments want billions in reparations to redevelopment agencies, which the governor looted to balance his budget a couple of years ago.

    The California State Teachers’ Retirement System has requested a $3.5 billion annual infusion to keep the teachers’ pension fund solvent. State universities and colleges are clamoring for an additional $600 million. Labor unions aim to renegotiate their relatively austere contracts, and Democrats plan to stuff their budget with sundry provisions such as middle-class college scholarships and dental benefits for low-income individuals.

    Meanwhile, Medicaid providers have sued the state for slashing their payments by 20% in the last four years and will want to be re-compensated now that the state has cash to spare (at least in theory) and a Democratic supermajority. The budget proposes $670 million in taxes and fees on hospitals and Medicaid managed-care plans to help fund the ObamaCare Medicaid expansion, which will cost an estimated $350 million this year and grow over time.

    Note, though, that $350 million is merely a “placeholder for the costs” until a more “refined estimate can be developed” once Washington provides more guidance on rules.

    Comment by Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 1/14/2013 @ 12:53 pm

  47. Comment by Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 1/12/2013 @ 4:42 pm

    How about an initiative requiring budgeting and state financial reports to follow GAAP,

    A low information voter might endorse that. GAAP isn’t really any good, it’s quite artificial in places, and governments have a different set of accepted accounting principles than corporations.

    As long as it’s only reports, it can’t do any harm, but it might not be useful. Maybe something allowing or requiring five different ways f reporting things, in the hopes that one of those ways will be good?

    and applying Sarbanes-Oxley rules and penalties to all public accounting within the state?

    Everyone knows Sarbanes Oxley is no good, but it’s really bad for smaller corporations, because things matter according to how great a percentage of revenue or expenditures they are.

    No – have an unlimited number (anyone who meets certain conditions can apply) of groups doing financial reports. They’d get access to data. Perhaps for a fee.

    Comment by Sammy Finkelman (5b43a3) — 1/15/2013 @ 5:33 am

  48. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/01/15/ap-fact-checks-obamas-claim-that-social-security-checks-veterans-benefits-will-be-delayed-if-debt-limit-isnt-raised/

    Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 1/15/2013 @ 5:36 am

  49. I predict that the CA tax increases will under-perform. As will California’s economy. While the out-migration of producers from California continues a pace, if not increses.

    Comment by LarryD (3df552) — 1/15/2013 @ 4:45 pm

  50. This is a likely LA Times headline we will see later this year:

    Meanwhile, the liberal business columnist in today’s LA Times has an article in which he warns that the US risks becoming another Argentina. But he places the onus of blame — not on spendthrift liberals/Democrats — but on Republicans, for their toying with the idea of refusing to raise the debt ceiling, thereby causing the US to become a deadbeat nation. Or a country chased by debt collectors in a way similar to what’s happening to Argentina right now.

    But that’s okay. Because the US (in the era of Obamaville) and Argentina are both run by so many compassionate, wonderful, tolerant, big-hearted, generous, populist, honest, reliable, non-racist, non-bigoted politicians and the voters who put them into office.

    Don’t cry for us, Argentina.

    Comment by Mark (4401ef) — 1/15/2013 @ 9:22 pm

  51. Mark Mills: California Could Be the Next Shale Boom State / Thanks to the Golden State’s dire fiscal situation, don’t be surprised if the governor were to proclaim: ‘There will be oil.’ Jan 15 WSJ

    If they won’t drill off the Continental shelf, maybe they can try fracking. Only New York State is going slow on that.

    Comment by Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 1/16/2013 @ 12:56 pm

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