Patterico's Pontifications

10/23/2012

Make Your Election Predictions

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:44 am

The debates are over, and the time has come to make your predictions. I ask all readers, even lurkers, to weigh in on the following questions:

1) Who is our next president, and what will be the breakdown in the Electoral College?

2) Will we win the Senate, and what will be the numerical breakdown?

3) How many seats will we gain in the House?

I’m terrible at this stuff, but that’s no excuse for not playing, so here goes:

Romney will win, narrowly, with 272 electoral votes, squeaking out Ohio.

We fail to take over the Senate, 49-51.

The House stays the same.

Mock away, but make your own predictions!

307 Responses to “Make Your Election Predictions”

  1. Ding!

    Patterico (8b3905)

  2. Romney loses by squeaker
    we win the senate 52 48
    We gain 3 seats in the house
    We also get a new speaker

    EPWJ (4380b4)

  3. a new peaker would be most welcome

    happyfeet (a1806d)

  4. a new speaker would be very welcome

    happyfeet (a1806d)

  5. Romney wins ~290 electoral votes
    Republicans win 51 Senate seats, McCaskill survives.
    Democrats win 5 House seats.

    Chris Matthews asks whether nation is too racist to re-elect a black president.
    Andrew Sullivan suffers nervous breakdown.
    MSDNC ratings skyrocket for one night as conservative and independent viewers tune in for the trainwreck.

    aunursa (7014a8)

  6. Romney-Ryan win big, 339-199.

    The GOP gets 49 in the Senate, 50 if we’re lucky.

    The GOP picks up a couple in the House.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  7. Romney wins big with 290 electoral votes
    We win Senate with 52 seats
    We pick up 4 seats in House
    We need a new speaker

    dickmcd (fb342b)

  8. Obama wins 281-257 (incl. Ohio)
    Dem Senate 52-48
    Republicans gain 2 in the House

    Kman (5576bf)

  9. Romney by at least 350
    at least 10 house seats
    55 Republican senators

    Ca Refugee (89bb7a)

  10. Exec: Incumbent takes 201, leaving winner at 337?

    Senate: Ends at 55 R, 43 D, 1 I, 1 S.

    House: GOP loses 4 seats.

    Playing safe per usual.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  11. Romney wins popular vote 55% to 45% Obama
    Romney wins 320 to 340 electoral votes.
    Pennsylvania goes Romney by 51% or 52%.
    Romney takes FL, NC, VA, OH, PA, IA, WI, NM and probably NH as well as all of the McCain states.

    I’d like to say Romney takes MI, too, but I just don’t know the mechanics of the state well enough to say that.

    T (13d0fd)

  12. Obama 281-257 (Obama takes OH, MI, PA, IA, WI, NM, NV and NH: Romney takes VA, FL, CO)

    Senate ends up 52D – 48R

    Republicans gain 3 in the House

    Kman (5576bf)

  13. 1. Pres. Romney, 291-247
    2. 291-247
    3. +9 in the House

    shipwreckedcrew (59011e)

  14. Obama in a squeaker
    Tie in Senate. No power sharing this time.
    Team R picks up 2 in House. Ryan Speaker.

    JD (8a1df4)

  15. Romney wins 300, popular vote and EC, including IL. Wouldn’t that be great.
    Rs get to 51 in Senate including MO
    Rs pick up 4 in House

    May as well go for the gold, right?

    PatAZ (9a59ce)

  16. Romney wins 318-220, winning IA, WI, NV, MI, NH and ME’s district 2

    GOP gets the Senate 51-49
    Loses 2 House seats

    Memories (b00ac1)

  17. Romney wins, no idea of the electoral votes, but the win exposes just how irrelevant both the mainstream media and the polls are.

    Outraged shrieks of shocked Liberals are audible in Tibet.

    C. S. P. Schofield (4feea2)

  18. Sorry, that should have said Rs pick up 4 in House. Having trouble commenting and I screwed up.

    PatAZ (9a59ce)

  19. Romney 284 to 254; first GOP winner to not carry Ohio.

    GOP picks up 2 Senate seats, 6 House seats.

    Bugg (234f77)

  20. Romney 284 to 254. GOP picks up 2 Senate seats and 6 House seats.

    Good interactive EC map here-http://www.270towin.com/

    Bugg (234f77)

  21. Prediction:

    President: Obama 277-261. Romney gets NH, CO, and VA; Obama gets IA, NV, and OH. The Johnson vote in Colorado is larger than the difference between Romney and Obama.

    Senate (counting Angus King as a Democrat): 54 D, 46 R

    House: the Dems pick up 3-4 seats but there’s no real change.

    aphrael (5908d3)

  22. Romney 344-194
    Popular vote 55-44% for a mandate
    53 Senate seats
    House + 6

    Of course, it’s a bit early yet and everything in the House and Senate will depend on turnout and momentum. Above based on a mild wave and +3 turnout. May revise and extend.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  23. Romney 318 to 220. (See map link. PA, OH and MI go to Romney)

    Senate flips 52 to 48 GOP

    5 House pickups.

    Psycotte (077749)

  24. Romney will win, with a commanding popular vote lead, the electoral vote total above 290.

    I’ve not studied the Senate races much but would expect to see a 50-50 split with Ryan putting the Senate into GOP hands. The House will gain a half dozen GOP seats net (locally I’m seeing some safe Democrat congressional districts suddenly become in play).

    SPQR (768505)

  25. Romney 318 to 220. (See map link. PA, OH and MI go to Romney)

    Senate flips 52 to 48 GOP

    5 House pickups.

    Psycotte (077749)

  26. 1. Romney wins, 303 electoral votes, 52 to 47% in popular vote.

    2. Senate goes barely GOP, 51 votes. This is the prediction I am least sure of. We could get only 44, if current polling holds (see RCP today), or we could get up to 53 if Brown, Akin, McMahon and Mack manage to pull it off. (I can’t believe Nelson is ahead of Mack by 6 in a state that is leaning so far to Romney that Obama appears to be pulling out.) So 51 is sorta in the middle.

    3. House stands pat at 241 GOP.

    Mitch (341ca0)

  27. Romney wins with 330+ electoral votes. Senate flips to GOP with 55 seats. GOP gains 5-10 in the House.

    peedoffamerican (3f1b28)

  28. 1- RR, 320+;
    2- GOP, 52-48;
    3- Draw, +/-5.

    AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92)

  29. R-Squared gets 300 EVs
    Republicans gain majority in the Senate, 55-45
    Republicans add 10 seats to their House majority
    Republicans add more Governorships to their majority
    Republicans add more Legislatures where they hold a majority position

    Romney proves to be the debilitating squish he is, nominating disastrous SC justices

    John Hitchcock (d1b9fb)

  30. I predict the Bears 92, the Panthers -4, and Michael Jordan will be held to under 100 points.

    Also, no matter who wins the election America will continue to decline into the theft and slavery of socialism.

    CrustyB (69f730)

  31. Romney, with about 290EV, because that’s how many Nate Silver expects Obama to get.

    GOP will not retake the Senate. It will be 52/48

    Dems will pick up 2 house seats.

    Daryl Herbert (438c99)

  32. Romney 350 to 190

    Senate R 51 to 49

    House R plus 5

    Robbo (5aa2b9)

  33. Obama takes OH (and the election) due to fraud. Romney wins popular vote.

    Senate will be 50-50.

    No house prediction.

    FYI I stink at political predictions but I’m pretty good at sports predictions. Giants win the series.

    Gerald A (f26857)

  34. Romney, round about 275-280
    Pick up 2 in the Senate, several in the House.
    The Usual Suspects file lawsuits, lose.
    GM goes bankrupt, finally, assets bought by Ford and Toyota.

    Space Cockroach (8096f2)

  35. Robbo, i’m curious how you get to 350. I mean, assume Romney carries all the swing states plus Pennsylvania and Michigan. That still only gets you 347.

    aphrael (5908d3)

  36. Romney wins 320 electoral votes.
    Repubs win Senate 52-48.
    Repubs win an additional 2 seats in the House.
    It’s not close, but Dems riot in the streets anyway.

    Zoltan (015445)

  37. Romney EC 362-176……GOP 57 Senate seats, +21 GOP in House; assuming that neither Gloria Allred nor Donald Trump October surprises amount to nothing. What I’d like is Jimmuh Carter type 1980 stomping.

    Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8)

  38. Romney, Electoral College 321 to 217, Popular Vote 53 to 47.

    Bored Lawyer (a0043c)

  39. Here’s a great interactive electoral map that allows you to construct several different scenarios for the electoral vote and see how they would come about.

    The scenario where the two candidates tie at 269-269 appears to be Romney winning CO, FL, VA, NC, IA and NV, and Obama winning NM, OH, PA, WI, NH, and all four electoral votes in ME. If Romney can win one of the four Congressional Districts in ME and get that one electoral vote, he would be the 270-268 winner.

    The best case scenario for Romney, in which he sweeps the midwest with the exception of IL and turns NM red, leaves him with a 353-185 win.

    The best case scenario for Obama, in which he pretty much wins everywhere that he did in 2008 with the exception of IN and this time around wins MO, leaves him with a 357-181 win.

    My prediction will be somewhat bullish for Romney. He wins CO, OH, IA, FL, NC, and VA for a winning margin of 281-257. Under that scenario, Romney could afford to lose CO or IA, but not both.

    JVW (f5695c)

  40. aphrael, here’s 350:

    Working from the RCP baseline: add FL, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, CO, & NV. Give Obama NH. Then add OR and MN as might happen in a big wave.

    I trade MN and NH to get 344. I think that Oregon is in play with a medium wave and good R turnout.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  41. It’s not close, but Dems riot in the streets anyway.

    Well, we’ll have a use for those bayonets that don’t exist in our “changed world”.

    AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92)

  42. landslide 344 for Romney
    Popular Vote: 55-45
    52 Republicans for Senate
    245 Republicans in House

    Comcast announces SNL and MSNBC are swapping on-air “talent”

    NYTimes/WP/LAT form one big newsroom…editing is shipped overseas to India. 80% newsroom is fired.

    jks (1af2dc)

  43. Further prediction:

    gay marriage passes in Maine and Washington but fails in Maryland, and the ban passes in Minnesota.

    pot legalization passes in Colorado and Washington.

    aphrael (5908d3)

  44. Romney can lose Ohio and still eke out a 270-268 margin if he can win Nevada and one of the electoral votes in Maine.

    JVW (f5695c)

  45. One of my friends who just happens to be retired, and who is working the early voting in Austin this week and next, just told me that there are two main tables where voters first check in, in order to obtain ballots; one table with a red tablecloth, the other with a blue tablecloth. Lovely.

    He says that the majority of voters on Monday went to the blue table to begin the voting process and he suggests that this means something. I have no idea what it really means. Maybe Dems vote early and often or something. Or maybe something as simple as a higher number of last names being after the letter “L”.

    Anyway, I predict a tie and a lawsuit with the SC deciding our future. Am I jaded or what?

    felipe (70ff7e)

  46. The important thing here, folks, is for each person to list how they did in the past, predicting Presidential races. Otherwise, just wish fulfillment.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  47. In the spirit of the hour, another prediction.

    The size and scope of the Dhimmi defeat will end BHO’s political career, because his comprehensive failure will be accounted the cause of setbacks for his core constituencies.

    Affirmative action, Green Shoots, Defined benefit, Bending the curve, etc., will all remind former Obots of his failure.

    Whatever the GOP does with this opportunity, we will be digesting the result of the last four for decades, much as Vietnam.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  48. A truly funny scenario I read somewhere has the election tied at 269, and the new Senate also tied at 50-50.

    The House quickly picks Romney, but the Senate, with Biden casting the tie-breaking vote, picks Biden.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  49. When the first recounts are over Romney has an EC win (>290?), but the Dems want full recounts (in some areas of some states) in an attempt to throw it into the House. They also whine that 0 may have won the popular vote, which appears tied at 49-49.

    New Senate, 50R, 45-1-1

    New House R picks up 5

    htom (412a17)

  50. Simon Jester:

    The important thing here, folks, is for each person to list how they did in the past, predicting Presidential races. Otherwise, just wish fulfillment.

    I don’t recall making picks in the past but, if I did, I’m sure it was horrible.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  51. I know I picked Bush to win in 2004 and — duh — Obama to win in 2008. I think that the 2004 electoral map was so well set that virtually everyone had Bush’s winning scenario down, with the exception of maybe New Mexico and Iowa. I confess that I did not expect Obama to win North Carolina and Indiana in 2008.

    JVW (f5695c)

  52. For those who see Romney winning the election, who would you like to see appointed as his Cabinet members and for which department would you want them Secretary of?

    Dana (292dcf)

  53. In 1976, California, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, and New Jersey all went Republican (Ford), while the entire Confederacy — with the exception of Virginia — went Democrat (Carter). My how times have changed.

    California voted Republican in every Presidential election from 1968 to 1988.

    And I had forgotten how huge an electoral clobbering GHW Bush laid on Dukakis in 1988.

    JVW (f5695c)

  54. Dana,

    I don’t care which binder he picks his Cabinet from but, as you might expect, I hope there is a Texan in there somewhere.

    He might pick Rob Portman, Ed Gillespie, and maybe Mike Leavitt. He will probably also pick some women but I have no idea which ones. Kay Bailey, perhaps, in some lesser role?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  55. The important thing here, folks, is for each person to list how they did in the past, predicting Presidential races. Otherwise, just wish fulfillment.

    Comment by Simon Jester — 10/23/2012 @ 10:47 am

    I predicted Kerry would win in 2004. Of course everyone knew Obama would win in 2008. I didn’t have a clear idea about who would win in 2000, which actually means I was right.

    Gerald A (f26857)

  56. For those who see Romney winning the election, who would you like to see appointed as his Cabinet members and for which department would you want them Secretary of?

    Defense — John McCain (opens the way for a conservative to be appointed to his Senate seat)

    State — Joe Lieberman (a bipartisan pick, would enrage Islamofacists)

    Commerce — I would have loved to see Herman Cain there, but with his lady scandals it will probably have to be some other businessperson

    Education — who cares, close the department down; Michelle Rhee if someone is absolutely needed

    Treasury — some financial whiz who pays his or her taxes

    Homeland Security — Rudy Giuliani

    Attorney General — John Yoo (watch liberal heads explode)

    Interior — Sarah Palin, of course, but I would also accept a western politician who wasn’t an environmental ninny

    Energy — shut it down

    Veteran’s Affairs — perhaps a key officer from the Afghanistan or Iraq wars — Tommy Franks maybe?

    Transportation — Antonio Villarigosa, so he can be rightly ignored

    Housing & Urban Development — If (God forbid) Scott Brown loses, give him this office; otherwise, find some moderate Northeastern Republican or a Democrat who isn’t nuts

    Agriculture — get Maine’s biggest blueberry farmer, or the Cheese Curd King from the Wisconsin State Fair

    Labor — whoever was Elaine Chao’s chief deputy during the GW Bush Administration

    But I don’t want to put the cart too far ahead of the horse — let’s elect Romney first!

    JVW (f5695c)

  57. Romney wins by landslide; riots ensue but quickly extinguished.

    Senate split; Akin win to Reps chagrin.

    House about where it is now as to split.

    Boehner still a compromiser but now has no excuses.

    chris matthews has aneurysm on set and eyes bleed as broadcast cuts to a rerun of 2008

    On morning Joe (rino), joe tries to claim he was always rooting for Romney. Mike beats him to a pulp on set as broadcast is cut to Andrea Mitchell shown weeping in her chair then cut again to test pattern.

    diane sawyer passes out from alcohol poisoning in the middle of a maudlin ramble about how “we tried to get him reelected but it’s almost like he was sabotaging us” Bassett hounds vote her face as the new logo for the breed.

    All black guests on all talk shows cry “RACISM”.

    UN poll watchers get mugged in philly while New Black Panthers “election facilitators” watch.

    Andrew Sullivan (bent over already too far) contorts just a little further and disappears up his own A$$. (it’s rumored that at the last moment, he had a whimsical smile on his face)

    Axelrod is arrested hanging out by some playground in a trench coat and nothing underneath. “I’ve been suppressing the urge for 4 years now. After today, what’s the point.”

    Valerie Jarrett was whisked away to the airport and a flight (by Iranian military jet) to Tehran.

    Bibi Netanyahu is reported to be walking around with a grin on his face from ear to ear mumbling something about “now we’ll see how those persians like having missiles shot over their border”.

    All the European leaders call Romney claiming they had to pretend to like the “schwartze” for political reasons.

    Winston Churchill bust is returned to the Oval Office.

    Stock market up by +750

    When I day dream, I get very detailed.

    Jcw46 (b4329c)

  58. Comment by JVW — 10/23/2012 @ 11:38 am

    I assume Romney would want a couple of Democrats. Joe Lieberman still sort of qualifies as one. He might go to DOD or Homeland Security. Maybe Panetta would be kept on.

    Of course I’m not predicting Romney wins…

    Gerald A (f26857)

  59. States may not vote in relation to each other as before because some have a lot of early and absentee voting.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  60. In Iowa, people still want to vote for Not Romney.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  61. Erskine Bowles would be another possible Democrat.

    Gerald A (f26857)

  62. It’s not a Cabinet position but I think Romney would be more likely to keep Petraeus at CIA than Panetta at Defense.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  63. All of the double and triple posting is lame!!

    Trying to pump up the number of posts is both sad and childish!!

    It’s been awhile since I’ve posted here but it reminds me of the obnoxious JHarp posts where he would just post anything in order to be the first on the thread.

    Like I said… Lame!!!!

    As far as the topic,

    Given the trends and Barry’s poor performance in the debates I see this as a bit of a blowout and a continuation of the 2010 election results!

    Romney 290+

    Senate 51

    House +3 Dems!!

    God save our great Republic!!

    SacTownMan (2a89ae)

  64. Sammy has his finger on the pulse of flyover country.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  65. The Obama campaign pushes back against Paul “the Forehead” Begala’s claim they were abandoning North Carolina:

    ““I’ve heard a lot of gossip about which states campaigns are staying in or leaving,” Messina said. “We are tied or ahead in every battleground state, and we’re not leaving any state where we’re tied or ahead.”

    … Asked specifically about North Carolina, Messina said the ground operation remains “huge,” and he noted that the youth vote is bigger in North Carolina than four years ago — and than in other swing states.”

    Sounds right, after all, they would not have had their first team of Debbie Wasserman Schultz campaigning in the state a few days ago if they were abandoning it, would they? Would they?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  66. I’m utterly pants at predictions, but here goes: Romney takes Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania. Dingy Harry delivers Nevada to 0bama; indictments follow some time in 2014.

    In Ohio, Cuyahoga County delays reporting until after the rest of the state is done; State AG raids the county elections board and catches them red handed trying to come up with the number needed for 0bama. He declares all ballots found in that room to be tainted and therefore uncountable, thus giving a landslide win to Romney and Mandel; county officials challenge this decision, and it ends up before the Supreme Court.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  67. When Romney/Ryan win, kfap will hang itself!

    Media Mutters (721840)

  68. Romney wins with 286 EV.

    Senate 52D – 48R

    House R+1

    AJD (6b3632)

  69. 1. Romney wins easily in the electoral college and by 9 million popular votes.

    2. Republicans will control the Senate with 6 pickups

    3. Republicans gain 30 house seats.

    This prediction is brought to you by a liberal Democrat, originally from Massachusetts but now in California, who sees the turkeys coming home to be roasted.

    Lorenzo (58bb69)

  70. Comment by Kevin M — 10/23/2012 @ 10:54 am

    A truly funny scenario I read somewhere has the election tied at 269,

    That might not hold. 269 might stay 269.

    We might also get Romney at 270, but one or two faithless electors, who vote for the Libertarian or Ryan or something, carrying him below a majority.

    Every other election seems to have 1 faithless elector.

    and the new Senate also tied at 50-50.

    The vote might not go strictly by party line, and some would want to wait for the House.

    The House quickly picks Romney, but the Senate, with Biden casting the tie-breaking vote, picks Biden.

    The House may not be so quick to vote. States with delegations evenly divided do not cast a vote, and 26 (not 25) votes are needed.

    In the next Congress, 24 states will have an even number of Representatives, and can be divided.

    If the House as a whole is evenly divided between parties, this may mean that no candidate will get 26 states.

    Pressure will be put on key individuals: Single Representatives from an entire state, like the Congress members from Delaware, Alaska, and North Dakota (there are 6 of them) or wavering members in an evenly divided, or closely divided, state.

    But in the Senate, individuals vote and there are only two choices.

    Sammy Finkelman (a1f34f)

  71. Every other election seems to have 1 faithless elector.

    Electors are only faithless when they can afford to be — i.e., when they know the election will not swing on their vote. In 2000, everyone was worried that a faithless elector might swing the electoral college to Gore, but they all held. It makes sense, as the electoral college voters are all generally party hacks anyway.

    JVW (f5695c)

  72. Obama wins by 4 percentage points.
    Dems keep Senate.
    House majority stays GOP; Dems pick up seats
    Boehner ousted as Speaker
    Hillary runs; wins presidency, 2016; re-upped, 2020
    Ryan runs; wins WH, 2024
    Atlas shrugs, 2025
    USA ‘managed bankruptcy,’ 2026
    47% fired; 9 states liquidated, 2027
    China reaches moon; finds Pete Conrad’s car keys, 2028
    Cubs lose World Series, 2029
    Law & Order cancelled; CSI:New Delhi premieres, 2030
    Cubs lose World Series. Again. 2031; vow a win by 2035
    Secret Reagan clone revealed; plans WH run in 2036
    Iran gets nuke, then nukes self in accident, 2032
    God tired & irritated; hurls asteroid; obliterates civilization; vacations on Jupiter, 2033
    mass extinction, 2034
    Cubs start spring training; cockroaches rebuild w/find of bayonets, saddles & Spam, 2035

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  73. IMP is bugfacknutz

    JD (8a1df4)

  74. President Romney 321EV or more
    Senate 51 GOP
    House gain of 7 seats (several in Illinois)
    Speaker Issa will gavel in the new House.

    If Obama is still campaigning in NC he is a dunce. He’s down by nearly double digits here. NC is set for an R wave election. R President, R Governor, R State House.

    Carmelita (ffe07e)

  75. Dr. Larry Schwiekart of U of Dayton, historian, says OH goes with any candidate receiving in excess of 0.5% of the popular vote nationally, without fail.

    Gallup and Rasmussen have Willard up by 10 times that margin. Even PPP has Romany up by 2.

    Urkel’s team believes tires and cars will carry the day, one in eight Buckeyes are so employed.

    That and $3.70 will get them a cup of java at Dunn Bros.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  76. Romney 53-47 EC 312, give or take

    Senate 50-50 (McCaskill wins)

    House Dems pick up 1-5 seats.

    Ed from SFV (4a2220)

  77. ___________________________________________

    Obama in a squeaker
    Comment by JD — 10/23/2012 @ 8:47 am

    Perish the thought.

    Even if Obama loses (God willing) by a small fraction, that very fact all by itself (ie, the tightness of the win of a fairly decent, conventional candidate over an extremist “Goddamn America!” rival) will show just how debased the country has become.

    Mark (8b953a)

  78. Prediction – MFM calls at least one State for Barcky, prematurely, based on egregiously flawed exit polling.

    JD (8a1df4)

  79. Prediction – MFM calls at least one State for Barcky, prematurely, based on egregiously flawed exit polling.

    Yep, and there will be a state like Virginia where they will continue to delay and delay calling it for Romney, who will eventually win it by 8 points.

    JVW (f5695c)

  80. JVW – that is a virtual certainty.

    JD (8a1df4)

  81. The Dems still think the IN Senate race is in play.

    JD (8a1df4)

  82. Mitt needs to learn to keep his stupid hands on his side of the aisle until the tram comes to a complete stop I think

    happyfeet (9011eb)

  83. JD – Dems think BHO is gonna win, that money grows on trees, and that you are a racist.

    Ed from SFV (4a2220)

  84. I think this will be a wave election like 1994 and 2010. I expect Romney to win big; over 300 electoral votes. I expect the Senate to go GOP and no losses, maybe some gains in the House. Then NO EXCUSES after that. We had that ability to get spending controlled in 2002, even with Iraq in the offing.

    Mike K (326cba)

  85. We went into the Iraq war without our LA times coupons is what happened

    happyfeet (9011eb)

  86. Doc, if Boehner can’t reel-in the spenders within his own caucus, the TEA Party types will find us a new Speaker who can.
    Plus, with a GOP majority in the Senate, I envision new power residing within two office suites:
    Those of the Junior Senator’s from South Carolina, and Kentucky.
    The Senior Senator from Kentucky will have his priorities re-sharpened, I think.

    AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92)

  87. Romney wins electoral, BHO wins popular, large USA cities go up in flames, hundreds die.

    gp (0c542c)

  88. I’m pretty sure Tyler Perry would step in before the death toll got that high

    happyfeet (9011eb)

  89. The Dems still think the IN Senate race is in play.

    According to the Mourdock fundraising emails I keep getting, it is.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  90. 1. Romney wins popular vote 49.5% – 49.0%
    2. Obama wins electoral vote 280 – 258
    3. Senate tied 50R to 50D, Joe Biden suddenly becomes important.
    4. Republicans add 5 seats to majority in House.

    Chuck Bartowski (11fb31)

  91. *The Cubs will win the WS in 2013.
    *The Fighting Illini will win the BCS in 2013. (that’s for JD)
    *Obama will be reelected and the MSM will consider him to be the greatest president of all.
    *The US will default on all debt and cease to exist in 2013.

    Ipso Fatso (1e3278)

  92. Romney – tight but decisive enough.

    House as per now. Senate close victory to Republicians with a couple of suprise victories.

    Speaking from outside the US, the tone coming from conservative blogs I’m reading is pretty good – not overwhelming but confident. Quite different from recent elections where the Republicians lost.

    scrubone (e7e0ea)

  93. “will show just how debased the country has become.” I don’t need politics to show me that. I see it personally everyday in the shameless behavior of our fellow citizens. This is what End Of An Empire looks like. It’s going to get worse, no matter how the election turns out.

    gp (0c542c)

  94. #116, #119, #122! Happy is on a comedy roll. You made me laugh, anyway.

    Felipe (3243af)

  95. Ha ha, DC’s timeline is ridiculous; preposterous!!!

    He actually thinks the Cubs will get into the World Series!

    Ha ha, moonbat!!

    kinlaw (2fb87c)

  96. a long time coming
    president pissy peevish
    soon a long time gone

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  97. Romney wins in a veritable rout… Republicans narrowly miss winning the Senate and gain 6 seats in the House.

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  98. If you’re trying to take JD’s mind off the Cardinals, bringing up the eternally non Fighting Illini is not the way to do it, Ipso..

    elissa (8d73e3)

  99. hey, Barcky… Americans called and we want our country back.

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  100. Sorry, for OT but I saw something today that really ticked me off. While visiting a middle school, a school program began airing over the classroom TV. Much to my shock a group of students began reciting pro-Obama slogans and then announced nasty comments about Mitt Romney and Republicans over this televised program to the entire school. I ended up being able to visit the “communications” classroom where this program was produced. The class was working on a huge project: they were the Democratic party running Obama’s presidential campaign. While questioning the students, none of them had done any research on the Republican candidates. For instance, the campaign’s speech writer was busy typing out a speech that attacked Romney for advocating sending arms to rebels in Syria because terrorists could get hold of them. Their teacher had explained this “Fact” them. Breathtaking isn’t it? Is there anything I can do about this outrage?

    Blowing_Smoke_Out_of_My_Ears (4d75ab)

  101. *The Cubs will win the WS in 2013.
    *The Fighting Illini will win the BCS in 2013. (that’s for JD)
    *Obama will be reelected and the MSM will consider him to be the greatest president of all.
    *The US will default on all debt and cease to exist in 2013.

    Comment by Ipso Fatso — 10/23/2012 @ 3:21 pm |Edit This

    1. I would rather #3 happen
    2. This would bring me great joy, but less likely than #1
    3. I see this as a grim likelihood
    4. Even Barcky ain’t that dumb

    JD (8a1df4)

  102. Having said that, if #1 happens, all bets are off. The end of the world is the only next logical step.

    JD (8a1df4)

  103. hey, Barcky… Americans called and we want our country back.

    Comment by Colonel Haiku — 10/23/2012 @ 3:45 pm

    Clint answered.

    He’s a genius.

    Steve57 (c8ac21)

  104. And I had forgotten how huge an electoral clobbering GHW Bush laid on Dukakis in 1988.

    Comment by JVW — 10/23/2012 @ 11:23 am

    If you think that was a clobbering, look at this map Mondale v Reagan or this one where Reagan ran against the former worst President in US history.

    After losing the election, Obeyme issues 720 Presidential orders which Romney cancels. Obeyme comes out of the closet on January 21 and admits that he is a homosexual muslim. Numerous fatwas are issued by various islamic clerics and Obeyme has to go into hiding. Michelle admits that Sasha and Malia are actually the love children of Reverend Wright.

    The entire MSNBC network is put on suicide watch after two jump under moving buses. Numerous Obeyme voters claim they were disenfranchised due to the fact that they thought R-O-M-N-E-Y spelled Obama.

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  105. Chrissy Matthews committed to Bellevue after endlessly roaming the halls while singing,I’ve Lost That Tingly Feeling”.

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  106. I am terrible at these things, as well. I will adopt DRJ’s predictions.

    nk (875f57)

  107. Is there anything I can do about this outrage?

    Comment by Blowing_Smoke_Out_of_My_Ears — 10/23/2012 @ 3:48 pm

    Get involved. Do you have an LSC, PTA or PTO? Volunteer. Get on the board if you can stand being around a table with a bunch of women for three hours. Be a library volunteer. School play volunteer. Ice cream social volunteer. Book sale volunteer. Fun lunch volunteer. This way you will become a familiar face and voice to the principal and the teachers, and more importantly to the other parents, and your voice will be heard.

    nk (875f57)

  108. I predict there will be tears.

    Pious Agnostic (2c3220)

  109. I predict there will be a tsunami of teeth gnashing, hysteria and rending of garments… the likes of which the world has never seen.

    And that’s just in the People’s Republic of the Greater Bay Area.

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  110. Will some people eat crow?

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  111. OT: Where is President Obama on this issue? Does Autumn remind the President of his daughters??

    http://www.nj.com/south/index.ssf/2012/10/brothers_considered_suspects_i.html

    Rodney King's Spirit (9ce6d4)

  112. Pious – I would love to see that, on-air @ MSNBC

    JD (8a1df4)

  113. Tears, Pious? I’d like to see them bleed from their eyes and every orifice.

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  114. Okay… that was just mean…

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  115. Actually, I am filled with anxiety. I’m hoping for tear of joy (my own).

    Pious Agnostic (2c3220)

  116. Otherwise, just wish fulfillment.
    Comment by Simon Jester — 10/23/2012 @ 10:47 am

    I agree that a lot of the predictions look like that.

    As usual, I will repeat my over-used comment that I still don’t see how Obama got close to the WH in the first place (but his last hurdles being a prior First Lady and Sen. McCain are big parts) and how Kerry ever got picked let alone come close in 2004.

    So, with hope more than analysis, I think Romney wins convincingly including Obamaphone Ohio and Scott Walker’s Wisconsin. Maybe even PA.
    The enthusiasm that was for Obama in 2008 is no longer widespread, enthusiasm to get rid of Obama and get Romney in much greater than apathy over McCain in 2008.
    Hoping that Senate is at least 50-50, and House up a few.

    But that is just the beginning. There needs to be serious decision making and I don’t know if the press and public will be up for it even if DC is. The nation may not yet be like Greece, but there are plenty of people who think they are owed the gravy train and can demand it. It seems utterly ridiculous to me to think that people in one country can demand that another country pays for their excesses.

    In one way, perhaps it would be good for Obama to go so berserk with lame duck executive orders and pardons and such that only the “far left fringe” has any like for him by the time he is gone, and Rep. Issa gets an assistant to knit while his hearings continue. (No blood, just locked up in that prison in Ill. that Obama opens when he closes Gitmo in December.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  117. This dismissiveness about the size of the fleet, both in its details and in its tone, put Virginia and Florida beyond reclaiming for the president and probably won George Allen his Senate seat back. It also first astonished then ticked off every veteran who was a sailor or a marine, and their families. The president ducking responsibility for the sequestration –which he signed on to and which came about because he double crossed John Boehner in the first place– is just the latest episode of the soon-to-close “Not My Fault Presidency.”

    It will also not help the president to have everyone, led again by Jen Rubin, revisit his infamous “apology tour,” which he simply cannot wish away. It happened. Jen Rubin has the audio and the video. The Brief Against Obama has the expanded version and all the footnotes.

    Again and again the president tried, with increasing desperation and evident frustration on his face, to get Mitt Romney to grow angry or flustered so that his Chicago Gang could then push out a “not ready” meme. Romney’s disciplined responses and his command of the answer –there is not one gaffe, not one flub on which the left can fasten– left the president and all his friends on sets everywhere to proclaim victory without any evidence save a snap polls that matter zip to the real polling that will continue to show Romney polling away.

    Today the after-debate analysis of the talkers and the cable chatterers will catch up with the conclusions of Charles Krauthammer, Sean Hannity, Rich Lowry, Powerline’s bigs and a band of others who saw the key exchanges and understood the result last night on air and on Twitter. The significance of the CBS focus group in Ohio will sink in and eve the president’s die-hard fans will get the sinking feeling back. Very soon distance is going to appear between the president and his “friends” in the Beltway media who know they have to buikd relationships for the next four years and that David Axelrod’s cell number will be as useful as Bob Schrum’s.”

    http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/0ed5ae63-cbe9-42d1-8a74-c4d0110be62b

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  118. The president ducking responsibility for the sequestration –which he signed on to …is just the latest episode of the soon-to-close “Not My Fault Presidency.”

    Yes, Colonel, I thought his “The Congress did that” was another pathetic statement of passing the buck- especially when he is just happy as a clam with the sequestration and an ever decreasing military.

    I remember at the time that was passed that a lot of people said they were not too worried about it because “it will not be allowed to happen”. I knew I should have put a wager on that one.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  119. Yep… roasters coming home… to roost.

    Colonel Haiku (1bc882)

  120. _______________________________________

    http://www.hughhewitt.com

    There’s a link in Hewitt’s column that goes to another column from today, from Jennifer Rubin at the washingtonpost.com:

    President Obama is right that fact-checkers routinely declare it to be a “myth” that he has apologized for America. The fact-checkers are wrong, however. I am hardly the first to compile lists of apologetic utterances from Obama

    The only reason the following can’t be added to that list is because the host country (ie, Japan), no less, apparently thought it would be politically unseemly or peculiar for Obama to bring a “Blame America First” spiel across the Pacific.

    abcnews.go.com, November 2011:

    In September 2009, US Ambassador to Japan John Roos reported to the Obama administration that the Japanese government did not think it was a good idea for President Obama to visit Hiroshima to apologize for the US having dropped an atomic bomb on that city, a secret cable published by Wikileaks revealed.

    Roos wrote the cable after his August meeting with Vice Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka, reporting to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the Japanese government felt “the idea of President Obama visiting Hiroshima to apologize for the atomic bombing during World War II is a ‘non-starter.’ While a simple visit to Hiroshima without fanfare is sufficiently symbolic to convey the right message, it is premature to include such program in the November visit.”

    A senior White House official asserts to ABC News that there was never any plan for the president to apologize for Hiroshima. The cable does not state that the idea was from the U.S.

    ^ Previously, I would have given Obama a smidgen of the benefit of the doubt for not actually dreaming up such an inappropriate presentation. But in the hindsight of the full past 4 years, in the shadow of recent controversies like Benghazi, I’d say it’s very likely that if Obama had had his way, the Official Apology Tour would have included a stop in Hiroshima. (I guess his bowing like a servant in front of Emperor Akihito and his wife had to suffice.)

    Mark (4de17c)

  121. Republican sweep, but a squeaker in the electoral college.

    Chance Obama tries to foil the election: 90%. Terms will not be favorable to him.

    DJMoore (89aba0)

  122. Gah. Comment form badly garbled my post.

    Republican sweep, but electoral college squeaker.

    Chance Obama tries to foil the election: Less Than 5%, given he’s sick of the whole thing. He’d retire to Hawaii tomorrow if his handlers would let him.

    Chance Michelle divorces him within five years if he loses White House: greater than 90%. Divorce terms will not be kind.

    DJMoore (89aba0)

  123. Romney wins landslide, 330 electoral votes, Senate 54/46 Republican, Houst Republicans gain 6 seats net

    Dave Walk (1754a6)

  124. I like the thought of McCain as SecDef. If there is one area that conservatives actually agree with him on, its national defense.

    Lieberman would be a solid SecState, but Bolton would be better.

    Energy – get a respected electrical engineer or electric power executive to run the company, and tell him that all loan guarantees come out of his salary and pension.

    EPA head – get someone with business experience who is rich enough not to get bribed by lobbyist cash. Should be skeptical of climate change.

    Labor Head – Find a businessman with a track record of working out labor disputes and/or reducing safety violations.

    OmegaPaladin (f2d931)

  125. Comment by Colonel Haiku — 10/23/2012 @ 5:44 pm

    I’d like to think Obama messed up with his Navy remarks but it seems to me any current or former military who are upset enough about that to change their vote would already not be voting for him. Maybe a handful of them are just starting to pay attention.

    Gerald A (f26857)

  126. Gerald A,

    It might make a difference with Navy personnel and civilians who live in Navy towns like Norfolk who like Obama, but hear this and realize they might not be able to re-enlist or keep their civilian jobs if the Navy downsizes.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  127. Could go either way, but I’ll guess Obama in a squeaker.

    Senate: D-52, R-48.

    House: Unchanged.

    Some of the predictions here are hilarious. There sure is a lot of hope* triumphing over reason for people so derisive of “hope and change.”

    (* with a healthy dollop of deranged paranoia)

    leo marvin (45619c)

  128. Axelrods’s cell number? 4731, D Block.

    phunctor (a24163)

  129. The important thing here, folks, is for each person to list how they did in the past, predicting Presidential races. Otherwise, just wish fulfillment.

    I was way off in 2008, but I called 2004 exactly, to the state and electoral vote.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  130. No matter who wins, on the morning after the election, about half of the people in the country will breathe a sigh of relief. The other half will wonder why anyone would vote for the idiot who won.

    I knew four years ago who I would vote against in 2012 and HOPE going FORWARD to breathe a sigh when the incumbent is defeated.

    Dave (6cafbc)

  131. OT: I see Lowry got his wish granted. Mann has filed his defamation/libel suit against NR and CEI. All you lawyers here might have fun discussing it in a thread. Lowry publicly promised to discover the p!ss out of Mann if the suit was filed, so maybe that will be fun; or maybe now that the sh!t got real, NR will decide they really don’t want to incur the legal costs. Probably wasn’t a good idea to give Mann a heads-up they intended to anal-probe him.

    http://www.foxnews.com/science/interactive/2012/10/23/michael-mann-vs-national-review-competitive-enterprise-institute/

    gp (0c542c)

  132. Defense — former General Petreaus

    State — John Bolton

    Commerce — Bill Gates

    Education — Michelle Bachmann, if only to get added Dem votes to close it.

    Treasury — Bet you Romney has a guy

    Homeland Security — Can we get rid of this? Parcel it all back out to where it came from and close the TSA and anyone who whines about a budget cut?

    Attorney General — Rudy Giuliani. We’ll need a good prosecutor as we jail Obama’s Cabinet.

    Interior — Sarah Palin

    EPA — Newt Gingrich

    Energy — shut it down

    Veteran’s Affairs — Colin Powell, so he can let out his inner Democrat

    Transportation — a old freeway guy. Too bad Pat Brown is dead.

    Housing & Urban Development — close it down

    Agriculture — one of Romney’s old downsizing guys. Too bad Sanford Sigiloff is dead.

    Labor — close it down, or combine it with Commerce

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  133. I’ll ditto your picks, Patrick, except that I think the electoral college vote won’t be that close. My map has Romney at 291

    Beldar (f02820)

  134. _____________________________________________

    The other half will wonder why anyone would vote for the idiot who won.

    In the context of 2012, that’s a scary thought. Scary because it should never be so close in the first place. Scary because never before in this nation’s history has a person as marginal and tarnished as Obama ever gotten into the White House to begin with.

    And never before — and unlike the razor-close race of November 2000 (ie, in which even oddball Al Gore didn’t come with all the noticeably cruddy, anti-US baggage of Obama) — has such an extremist been on the ballot competing against a mainstream person like Romney, with the populace fully — fully — aware (after 4 long years) of what Obama is all about.

    Obama is not your grandma’s (or granddad’s) liberal Democrat.

    Mark (4de17c)

  135. Homeland Security — Can we get rid of this?

    Provided we find a way to keep the left from erecting another Gorelick wall between agencies… why not get rid of it?

    Dustin (73fead)

  136. I’ll ditto your picks, Patrick, except that I think the electoral college vote won’t be that close. My map has Romney at 291

    Yeah, you’re giving Romney Wisconsin and Colorado. I didn’t. I think that is the difference: 19 electoral votes. Your version is not impossible. Heck, very little is impossible with the momentum we have seen.

    Patterico (8b3905)

  137. Homemeland Security — Can we get rid of this?

    Provided we find a way to keep the left from erecting another Gorelick wall between agencies… why not get rid of it?

    Comment by Dustin — 10/23/2012 @ 8:09 pm

    Das Vaterlandsicherheitdiesnt verlassen? Nie!

    nk (875f57)

  138. The GOP will pick up a few House seats and win five Senate seats (giving us a 52 seats).

    Romney will beat Obama with 316 electoral votes.

    ——–

    Kevin’s on the right track for a lot of his cabinet picks. Some of these need to go unfilled, and the departments shuttered ASAP.

    I don’t want a General as Sec Def. I’d prefer someone who pulled a single tour of duty and then found success elsewhere that he could bring to bear.

    I’d love to see Sarah Palin as Secretary of Interior, John Bolton as UN Ambassador (another change), and Rudy as the AG.

    Dustin (73fead)

  139. Never say never, nk!

    Dustin (73fead)

  140. I have said for a long time that this election will be anything but close …

    If people get to see the real Pres’ent Obama and the real Governor Romney (as we have during the debates) without the MSM filters, Obama goes down big, and with significant coat-tails … Obama/Reid/Pelosi policies are reversed/removed/remedied, and the economy recovers in a couple of years …

    If the MSM manages to demonise Romney while hiding Obama (which they have failed to do), Obama wins a bit better than 2008, with a few coat-tails … the copycat of Hoover policies gets followed to Roosevelt’s policies – and Great Depression II sets in for a decade or more …

    Since the former has happened, I am optimistic for a significant turn-around by the end of 2014 …

    I don’t see Obama issuing lots of Executive Orders as a lame duck … I see him being way too busy issuing pardons for “donations” to his Swiss Bank accounts …

    Alasdair (4ab712)

  141. Yes, Romney, with over 300. I’m mystified as to the other categories.

    Do we really need to take the Senate to repeal Obamacare? Won’t some Dems be grateful to be gently coerced into that?

    Patricia (e1d89d)

  142. Will some people eat crow?

    If Obama wins crows will cost too much.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  143. Romney wins big. PA is too close to call very late which puts dems on edge. Early reports out of OH, MI, WI compound it. Dems start freaking out before polls close on the west coast, NV flips Romney, Oregon too.

    Riots in LA like the Lakers won a championship.

    I introduce my balls to a cup of pudding in honor of ace.

    bskb (7be5cf)

  144. The big question is who will get to be WH press secretary- somebody that will just make the libs go apoplectic…maybe Beck and Rush can take turns a week at a time…

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  145. Rush wouldn’t take the paycut!

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  146. But, he might do it a couple of times for free just to get under the LSM’s skin!

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  147. Re-watching the 1980 debate between Reagan and Carter. Amazing! Dems still hung up on more govt spending, investing in bio-fuels, solar energy, blah, blah, blah ad infinitum. Crap didn’t work then and ain’t agoin to work now. Here’s the link

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8YxFc_1b_0

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  148. Do we really need to take the Senate to repeal Obamacare? Won’t some Dems be grateful to be gently coerced into that?

    It is certainly possible. Recall that Dems had a great showing in Senate elections back in 2008, so in 2014 they will be defending 20 seats versus the GOP’s 13 seats. There will probably be vulnerable Democrat Senators in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Virginia, so they may have reason to cut a deal with a President Romney and undo the major parts of Obamacare. Even if the GOP ends up capturing the majority, some of those Senators might want to be part of the majority for repeal.

    JVW (f5695c)

  149. How about Greg Gutfield for WH Press Secretary? He would be a lot funnier — and yet more serious — than Robert Gibbs or Jay Carney.

    JVW (f5695c)

  150. I do not think Obama-Biden anticipated that two weeks before the election, they’d be reading things like this:

    Democrats say they remain skeptical of Mr. Romney’s chances in Maine, Pennsylvania and in Michigan.

    From the same article:

    The battleground for the last weeks of the campaign may now be growing from nine to as many as a dozen states, as Republicans consider whether to try to capitalize on signs that the tightened race, shown to be deadlocked in many polls, is bringing the party new opportunities.

    Again, an incumbent President is in trouble if this many states are legitimately in play. One can argue about exactly which, and how many, are in play, but the Dems are obviously worried that electoral votes they’ve long counted on for 2012 are now in serious dispute.

    The new consensus message from the Dems — one not very thoroughly confined to subtext, but instead one that’s becoming increasingly explicit and shrill — is “Okay, we might actually lose, so now’s the time to panic!” The leftie talking heads right now put me in mind of someone trying to consciously will him- or herself into an adrenaline-fueled act of superhuman strength, like doing a clean-and-jerk on the front end of a dump truck. “Yes, we are going to duplicate our turnout from 2008, and this will not feel like the tsunami for which 2010 was a foreshadowing, because … ummmm … things really aren’t so very bad, and, ummm, Buuuuuush! Racists!”

    Beldar (f02820)

  151. DRJ, I’d be interested in knowing what your map looks like too, and others’ as well.

    Regarding the possibility of a Texan serving in a Romney cabinet office, I hear that Gov. Romney has already sounded out Rick Perry about a job as Secretary of either Commerce, Education, or ….

    Damn! What’s that third one?

    Beldar (f02820)

  152. Comment by Beldar — 10/23/2012 @ 11:27 pm

    Agreed, Beldar. One of the moments when I started to accept that McCain/Palin were doomed four years ago was just about at this time when we started reading reports that the Obama/Biden campaign was starting to target North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana. That’s when I came to grips with the idea that it was over. If Romney/Ryan are serious about Maine, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, then Obama/Biden are probably toast.

    JVW (f5695c)

  153. Predictions, eh?

    Romney wins in a moderate walk, neither a squeaker nor a landslide.

    GOP narrowly retakes Senate, say 52-48.

    GOP retains control of House, even picks up a few seats.

    AND YET…

    Despite the GOP in firm control of all three branches, they do NOTHING to reduce or abate immigration, let alone end it entirely as they should. Modified amnesty is passed for illegals, with sham fig-leaf of fake border control for cover, which will never be enforced. Legal non-white immigration actually increases. Chain migration among newly amnestied illegals goes through the roof. GOP fails to notice, celebrates betrayal of its own base as “progress” against “racism”. Homeland Security explicitly targets whites as the new prime suspects for “domestic terrorism”.

    The slow death of the historical American people through the soft genocide of mass non-white immigration continues apace. Whites continue to remain silent and submissive about their own destruction as a people. Blacks, sensing the numbers continuing to change in favor of non-whites, increase their “random” violent attacks against whites, especially against women and children. Latinos and Asians become increasingly vocal about getting their “fair share” of the racial spoils, which, they realize correctly, is all that American politics will consist of henceforth, with whites too timid to claim their own share overtly as whites. Brandy and cigars in Tel Aviv.

    Short-term prediction: Moderate Romney win.

    Long-term prediction: White Americans become a persecuted and despised minority, a laughingstock which may be kicked at will without consequence, in the country which their forefathers built.

    Alexander Hamilton replaced on the $10 bill by Harriet Tubman. Printed language on all US currency includes a Spanish translation. Islamic dates appear alongside “CE” dates on all currency. No one remembers who those guys on Mount Rushmore are.

    up the junction (5a9950)

  154. #153, up his arse. Go jump in the lake, you f—ing Nazi. This is not st0rmfr0nt.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  155. Attorney General — Rudy Giuliani. We’ll need a good prosecutor as we jail Obama’s Cabinet.

    No. The AG is not a prosecutor anyway. And what we desperately need is an AG who gives a damn about civil liberties, as Ashcroft did, and as Giuliani most assuredly does not. The man is a — I don’t want to use the F-word, especially of an Italian, so let’s say he’s an authoritarian. In temperament he’s Eliot Spitzer’s clone. How about Eugene Volokh? Or, getting more realistic, Michael McConnell. Ken Blackwell? Chip Mellor? I really like the earlier suggestion of John Yoo, just to see the Ds’ faces. Maybe he can be a deputy AG for something or other.

    In any event, there’s no question who needs to head the Voting Rights Division: J. Christian Anderson.

    I like Palin for Interior, though maybe she should first be given the task of winding up Energy and folding it into Interior. But Royce Lamberth should be asked to be Assistant Secretary for Indian Affairs. He’s 69, so it’s not as if he was going to be on the bench that much longer anyway. And he should have a chance to fix the mess.

    And speaking of fixing messes, Foggy Bottom is such a jungle that it will take an extraordinary tough person to tame it, and that has to be a job for Bolton. Mass resignations are needed, and he will know how to get them.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  156. “Go jump in the lake, you f—ing Nazi. This is not st0rmfr0nt.”

    Wow. So, when encountering speech which you disagree with, your first instinct, and indeed the entire substance of your response, is to try and silence that speech.

    But I’m the Nazi.

    I find that interesting.

    Why, it’s almost as if you’ve got a guilty conscience or something.

    up the junction (5a9950)

  157. Romney by a landslide.

    Senate goes R.

    House stays R.

    Big Robert (a39c8a)

  158. 94. Comment by Felipe — 10/23/2012 @ 3:35 pm

    #116, #119, #122! Happy is on a comedy roll. You made me laugh, anyway.

    This is #82, #85 and #88 now. I don’t understand any of that. Mitt’s hands and the tram? What’s that? LA Times coupons? Well, I know the story about the LA Times telling people take the paper, it has coupons, but I don’t get the joke. Tyler Perry?

    Are these all references to some comment and the joke is that it doesn’t make sense – just uses some key words?

    Sammy Finkelman (a1f34f)

  159. Regarding the possibility of a Texan serving in a Romney cabinet office, I hear that Gov. Romney has already sounded out Rick Perry about a job as Secretary of either Commerce, Education, or ….

    Damn! What’s that third one?

    Comment by Beldar — 10/23/2012

    Perry has done a lot for education reform, so that’s interesting to hear, but I personally hope he stays as Governor.

    Dustin (73fead)

  160. Via Ace, WH plan without OH:

    “[E]ven if Obama loses Ohio, his campaign sees another pathway to the presidency by nailing New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.”

    Earth to Il Douche, CO was gone weeks ago, NH and NV are no better than OH, only IA in this group is a decent get.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  161. ____________________________________________

    Long-term prediction: White Americans become a persecuted and despised minority

    But not if they’re liberal, not if they’re “progressive.” After all, mindless left-leaning sentiment overall is at the core of the problem, not the particulars that pertain to race or ethnicity, or, for that matter, “GLBT.”

    In light of how political correctness has reached the height of absurdity in no less than the US military, and apparently was the origins of Nidal Hasan and the Fort Hood massacre, I think anyone who allows the idiocy of left-leaning sentiment to get the better of them deserves to feel guilty. In effect, they have blood on their hands.

    BTW, the FBI and CIA are currently actively promoting job openings to applicants who are GLBT. They’re also participants at Gay Pride events in places like DC.

    Ya can’t make this s*** up. So what is sarcasm and glibness today (including the way that US currency might be modified in the future) may be reality tomorrow.

    Mark (4de17c)

  162. I’m going conservative:

    Popular Vote:
    Romney 52%
    Obama 45%
    3rd Party 3%

    Electoral College:
    Romney 301
    Obama 237

    Romney wins the Southern swing states as well as New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

    Robert (72d248)

  163. As far as Congress goes…

    House: Republicans net 11 seats in the House, but more importantly hold all four of the currently endangered Illinois house seats.

    Senate: Republicans pick up 5 seats in the Senate with upset victories, the notables being:

    Missouri – Todd Akin may be radioactive, but Missourians really don’t like Claire – if they did she’d be winning by 20 points.

    Florida – Connie Mack is winning Republicans and Independents, in Florida that means he’s winning, period. BTW, a sign that the Nelson camp knows it’s in trouble? How about they said so themselves: ‘”The only poll that counts, of course, is on Election Day,” said Dan McLaughlin, a spokesman for the Nelson campaign.’ When an incumbents campaign says this, they’re losing.

    Connecticut – McMahon will pull out a squeaker in this wave election. This race has been a statistical tie for weeks and this year a tie goes to the Republican.

    Massachusetts – Fauxcahonta needs to be ahead by two to win this year, because in a Republican year Massachusetts voters will have to have a reason to remove a non-threatening incumbent like Scott Brown, and she’s yet to give them one.

    Robert (72d248)

  164. Gerald A,

    It might make a difference with Navy personnel and civilians who live in Navy towns like Norfolk who like Obama, but hear this and realize they might not be able to re-enlist or keep their civilian jobs if the Navy downsizes.

    Comment by DRJ — 10/23/2012 @ 7:20 pm

    I think the Obama campaign isn’t really counting on VA at this point anyway.

    Gerald A (f26857)

  165. Romney wins by landslide. Gain in senate is 7 seats, gain in house is 24 seats.

    Bar Sinister (664312)

  166. “up the junction”, your incompetent troll attempt is a failure. Go back to DU and report that you are too stupid to make a convincing racist.

    SPQR (644d79)

  167. Here is the Iron Law of American Presidential Politics:

    Bugs Bunny _always_ defeats Elmer Fudd.

    (The corollary is that Bugs always defeats Yosemite Sam, too; that happened in ’08, but Yosemite Sam is not running in this election, Elmer is.)

    Romney has succeeded in turning Obama into Elmer Fudd. Or maybe Obama did it on his own, I can’t tell.

    Nevertheless, in this election, Romney is now Bugs Bunny, and Obama is Elmer Fudd.

    Romney’s wife can start picking out the color of the White House drapes.

    Gojira, King of Monsters (5a9950)

  168. The only prediction I have is that I expect the media to barely pull SCOAMF across the finish line.

    Dawnsblood (fbd76c)

  169. Beldar,

    My map and longer argument.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  170. In any event, there’s no question who needs to head the Voting Rights Division: J. Christian Anderson.

    No argument. OK, we can put Giuliani in at Homeland Security as others have suggested. As much as I’d like someone like Randy Barnett or Chip Mellor as AG, I think we’re going to get a pretty straight-forward Republican, not a libertarian. My litmus tests have got to be continued opposition to the Constitutionality of Obamacare and a willingness to uncover gross wrongdoing by Obama’s folks, particularly at Justice and Treasury.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  171. “OK, we can put Giuliani in at Homeland Security as others have suggested.”

    The only place we should put Giuliani is in a lunatic asylum. Listen, I have the utmost respect for what he did in NYC in the 90s, but these days the guy is just a nut. If you say you want Giuliani, then what you really mean is that you want William Bratton, and that’s a different kettle of fish.

    What we really need in charge at Homeland Security is Ned the Skeptic. As we do in virtually all the other cabinet positions.

    Gojira, King of Monsters (5a9950)

  172. Putting Giuliani in Homeland Security would be throwing the 2nd Amendment out the window.
    He is the one who began the out of state gun dealer lawsuits that everyone gets upset about when Bloomberg refuses to let them lapse.
    He also clamped down on the out of control carry permits being issued in NYC. Thousands of non-police being allowed to carry guns? Inconceivable!
    He is also the person who made the perp walk such a work of art that the courts had to actually step in and prohibit them, and then of course he just ignored the court order when he felt like it. I’m sure that attitude will work well with unreviewed wiretaps and unlimited detention.

    As for the election:
    Romney with a Popular Vote 56/44 or so and Electoral Vote 308/230 or thereabouts, also one big Blue state no one expects will flip
    Senate 50/50
    House 5-10 R pickups

    Sam (133e2f)

  173. Romney wins in an unexpected landslide. Chris Matthews charges news media with racism, since so few African Americans are mountaineers and thus seldom encounter landslides.

    The Sanity Inspector (79aa38)

  174. Romney/Ryan win with 307 EV.

    Republicans hold House, lose approx. 6-8 seats net.

    Democrats hold Senate, with two seat majority (51-49).

    Diogenes' Lamp (9d523d)

  175. Yes, Sanity Inspector, predictions of racism accusations from the left are safe predictions.

    I just hope we can avoid bloodshed and riots when Obama loses.

    Dustin (73fead)

  176. Any prediction Mr. Finkleman?

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  177. Sorry, Finkelman.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  178. Ryan on WI:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/23/paul_ryan_i_feel_very_good_about_winning_wisconsin.html

    Voter ID sets Dhimmis waaay back, but currently awaiting Appeals Court action.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  179. BTW, the FBI and CIA are currently actively promoting job openings to applicants who are GLBT. They’re also participants at Gay Pride events in places like DC.

    What’s your objection?

    Milhouse (78a277)

  180. Wow. So, when encountering speech which you disagree with, your first instinct, and indeed the entire substance of your response, is to try and silence that speech.

    No, when I encounter white supremacist sh*t my first and only response is to denounce and silence it. Because that is the only response it deserves. You are scum and have no right to show your face among decent people.

    Milhouse (78a277)

  181. Putting Giuliani in Homeland Security would be throwing the 2nd Amendment out the window.

    Yes. As I said, he is not a person to whom the phrase “civil liberties” means anything.

    Milhouse (78a277)

  182. “You are scum and have no right to show your face among decent people.”

    Who told you that you were ‘decent people’?

    “my first and only response is to denounce and silence it.”

    So you admit you are a brownshirt thug. Thanks for that, Decent Denny.

    Again, who told you that you were decent? Who told you that you were a person?

    up the junction (5a9950)

  183. Trying to exchange your own brownshirt, up the junction? You failed.

    And we all know you are nothing but a DU troll trying to plant racist comments on conservative sites. Its an old form of agent provocateur and no one falls for it. Go back to DU and report your failure.

    SPQR (768505)

  184. #154 and others

    Thanks, Milhouse, SPQR. I was aghast.

    Felipe (3243af)

  185. Felipe, the false flag ops are easy to spot.

    SPQR (768505)

  186. Dustin:

    Perry has done a lot for education reform, so that’s interesting to hear, but I personally hope he stays as Governor.

    One thing you, Beldar and I have in common (other than Texas) is that we tend to be serious, earnest, and not sarcastic. However, this one time I think Beldar was being sarcastic. Remember in the GOP primary when Perry said he wanted to eliminate three departments and then couldn’t remember the third one? I think Beldar was riffing on that.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  187. I may have been opaque. I don’t think Gov. Romney and Gov. Perry are ever likely to be, ummm, drinking buddies, nor is Gov. Perry interested in leaving his current job for a cabinet seat.

    But I also thought I detected in Dustin’s comment a winking acknowledgement of my attempted joke before his more serious point.

    I’m pretty sure the only thing that could tempt Gov. Perry to accept a cabinet seat for Education would be if it came with the promise that he could abolish the department on the day of his Senate confirmation (which would itself be a process I don’t think Gov. Perry would much enjoy).

    Beldar (a5a1b4)

  188. Actually, one of the more interesting comments I read about the debates is that Obama should have studied Rick Perry’s performances in the GOP debates, because Perry did the best job of any of the other candidates of getting under Romney’s skin and pushing his buttons. That’s clearly what Obama was desperately trying to do during the second and third debates, generally without success.

    Beldar (a5a1b4)

  189. Beldar:

    But I also thought I detected in Dustin’s comment a winking acknowledgement of my attempted joke before his more serious point.

    I’m sure you’re right. I’m the one who misses the sly and wry comments.

    But, seriously, I don’t think Romney wants anything to do with Perry. Except to welcome him when he invites the Governors to the White House.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  190. And as for sarcasm, I am as much a stranger to it and its cousin, snark, as Winston Churchill was to alcoholic spirits!

    Beldar (a5a1b4)

  191. I’m the one who misses the sly and wry comments.

    — writes she who routinely generates sly and wry comments.:)

    Beldar (a5a1b4)

  192. (“Generating” not in the sense of prompting, but of writing herself, prolifically. I can’t quite get the knack of expressing myself today!)

    Beldar (a5a1b4)

  193. #184 “I was aghast.”

    Well strictly speaking this is an election predictions thread so I really don’t want to further disrupt it by dwelling on my own point; so this will be the last out of me.

    But I would like to remind you good people (and I mean that, except for Milhouse) of a very simple idea which you seem to have forgotten: “I am aghast” is not an argument. “You are a troll” is not an argument. “You are a white supremacist (zero evidence for this, btw)” is not an argument. And, most importantly, “Shut up” is NEVER an argument. Such a stance is anathema to the very basis of America. I think you all know that but have forgotten it in your temporary fit of pique; I would remind you that that is exactly the most important time to keep it foremost in mind though.

    What I wrote was a satirical extrapolation of existing and observable trends, intended to shine a light on what I think you can really expect from these elections. It is perfectly possible to disagree with my view, though no one here did so with honor. If you would prefer not to think about any of these things, well that is your prerogative. My own opinion is that in that case, your children will not thank you.

    “I was aghast.” Well ain’t that special. Myself, I’m aghast about a lot of things, too.

    But as I say, this thread doesn’t seem to be an appropriate place for me to argue further. You folks have a good evening. Not being snarky when I say that. A tout a l’heure.

    up the junction (5a9950)

  194. I hope this guy knows what he’s talking about. Also on Free Republic someone who claims to be able to figure out what’s going to happen by analyzing absentee/early voting is confident Romney wins OH.

    Gerald A (f26857)

  195. I read an interesting analysis (forget where) about what election outcome would be best for actual conservatives, viz. as opposed to GOP establishment. The thought went like this:

    Romney is not a true conservative, so if he is elected, the GOP political structure will rally around him out of party loyalty, as he attempts to pass a number of highly non-conservative measures. Given that Obama and Romney are more similar than they are different, the optimal outcome for actual conservatives is a hobbled Obama with a strong and principled congressional opposition. Therefore, the best outcome for conservatives, ironically, is this:

    1. GOP keeps the House and takes the Senate.
    2. Romney wins the popular vote, but is narrowly edged out in the Electoral College vote.
    3. Obama re-elected on a technicality, but in the face of an angry electorate who grant him zero mandate, and a united GOP congress determined to check him at every step.
    4. Nothing much gets done in DC for 4 years, but this is good, because:
    a) Romney’s agenda is substantially similar to Obama’s, and now both are thwarted, and
    b) In reality it isn’t within the president’s power (and certainly not within his brief) to “fix” the economy. This will have to happen of its own accord. With the government paralyzed, the economy stands a better chance of recovering.

    It won’t play out that way exactly, of course, but I found the whole thing interesting.

    Thoughts?

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  196. ==I read an interesting analysis (forget where) about what election outcome would be best for actual conservatives…
    Obama re-elected on a technicality,…
    Romney’s agenda is substantially similar to Obama’s,…
    In reality it isn’t within the president’s power (and certainly not within his brief) to “fix” the economy This will have to happen of its own accord. With the government paralyzed, the economy stands a better chance of recovering
    Thoughts?==

    That you’re not really a Raconteur OR a conservative? Am I close? Do I get a prize?

    elissa (274efd)

  197. Rocky, we can’t stand 4 years of nothing getting done except executive orders, presidential appointments and foreign affairs decisions by Obama, even if the Congress was 100% Tea Party approved.

    And even if we did survive that, the Dems would blame all of the problems on an oppositional Congress to get another Democrat elected president in 2016.

    Not even Hillary Clinton has the same agenda as Obama, let alone Romney.

    The only point of all of that that rings true is that the more conservative elements in Congress and those who voted Romney into office need to make it clear that 4 years of Democrat-Lite will mean he also will be a one term president.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  198. DRJ does sometimes miss some of the snarkier sarcasm. I think she is more disciplined (or by her nature) focused on getting worthwhile things accomplished than some of us who lapse into delusions of Woody Allen-esque conservativism (referring to his early comedic movies, not any other part of his persona or biography).

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  199. MD in Philly –

    Well you know at the moment I’m not really sure I believe in what I recounted here myself, which is why I posted it in an ambivalent voice. But, in the interest of trying to tease some sense out of the matter further, let me reply to your objections (note that I’m not backing a position, I’m just trying, as Sherlock Holmes would say, to “eliminate the impossible” so that the plausible emerges more clearly.)

    1. “we can’t stand 4 years of nothing getting done except executive orders, presidential appointments and foreign affairs decisions by Obama”

    But maybe we can. A Congress with a stiff spine and some proper political street-smarts (it’s a big ask, I know) could stare down the executive orders through powers of subpoena, de-funding, and, if necessary, impeachment; same thing for appointments; and in my lifetime (roughly 4 decades), foreign affairs have never been less significant than they are right now, so who cares.

    2. “the Dems would blame all of the problems on an oppositional Congress to get another Democrat elected president in 2016.”

    This is also what is otherwise known as “politics”. This is like saying “We can’t possibly play the Yankees! If we play the Yankees, they’ll use their superior roster to beat us!” Guess what, this is the game, learn how to win, it can be done. The big problem with the GOP is that they’re such p@ssies and they never even try to win.

    3. “Not even Hillary Clinton has the same agenda as Obama, let alone Romney.”

    This is a fair point. I think what the argument I quoted was trying to say, is that a principled and determined opposition can neutralize the malignant Obama agenda, whereas, politics being what it is, a vaingloriously triumphant GOP will unwittingly enable a half-Obama agenda, via Romney. So I guess it comes down to, choose your poison: half a dose, or less.

    4. “those who voted Romney into office need to make it clear that 4 years of Democrat-Lite will mean he also will be a one term president.”

    But you know as well as I do that they will never do this. Exhibit A: the evil leftist @ss-clown George W. Bush. Actual conservatives need to stop fighting on the chosen terrain of the liberals, which they are always suckered into doing. Until they grow a pair and define the world in a way which they themselves approve of, and use their own definitions rather than those which the Left foists upon them and which they passively accept, nothing much will change.

    elissa — oh, for pete’s sake.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  200. I rest my case.

    elissa (274efd)

  201. btw, note that the proposition I’m discussing (viz. weak Obama, strong Congress) is not something that can be willed into being through strategy: the voters are going to do whatever it is that they do, and we’ll all just deal with the ensuing landscape. There isn’t a plausible “Vote Obama and R down-ticket” strategy whose outcome is assured, so it isn’t what I’m advocating. (IOW, hi elissa! I’m not a troll!) My point is more to consider what the theoretical implications of various outcomes really are, or would be; and what does a principled conservative thought consensus look like.

    Am I a conservative? No, but only because I no longer no what the word means (what, exactly, do you folks believe you are trying to ‘conserve’?). What I am is a non-leftist, and in many respects, an anti-leftist, because I think leftism and left-liberalism are actively corrosive and destructive, whereas conservatism is mostly just being silly.

    But mostly I’m not a big believer in labels. I understand that in mass politics they are sort of necessary in order to get anything done; but that doesn’t mean I cozy up to them.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  202. elissa — What case? Making an actual argument rather than a bit of facile one-sentence snark would be kind of, ya know, more persuasive.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  203. He doesn’t obey the law, re the drilling moratorium, or ACORN funding, or the whistleblower law he’ll be empowered to be even more brazen, as Van Jones has counseled.

    narciso (ee31f1)

  204. #203 — quite true. But if we had a strong and stiff-backed conservative congress (sci-fi scenario, I know), then they could stare him down, make his life uncomfortable, and things could get interesting. Not saying it will happen, but it’s what I’d like to see, just to generate precedent and example.

    Long term, whether Dem or GOP, the power of the presidency is somehow going to have to be severely curbed. Or else we should just give up the idea of a republic, and transition to an imperium. Many think we already have.

    Taxonomically I believe something else, rather different than either, has happened, but it would be a lot easier to dial back to a republic, than try to squirm out of an emperor’s grip.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  205. Rocky, Obama is much worse than Romney.

    Romney is indeed not a conservatives perfect pick, but we urgently need the foot taken off the gas pedal of spending. Romney is an inherently more skilled leader than Obama, as well.

    Plus, these races all tend to effect eachother. We aren’t taking the Senate without enthusiasm for our presidential candidate, IMO.

    We should talk about holding Romney’s feet to the fire after the election.

    Dustin (73fead)

  206. And Narciso is right. We haven’t seen the worst Obama is capable of, because he’s been concerned about Reelection.

    Next term, things like single payer might be on the agenda. A reckless president can do a lot of damage with EOs, too.

    We need Romney to win. It’s very important.

    Dustin (73fead)

  207. quite true. But if we had a strong and stiff-backed conservative congress (sci-fi scenario, I know), then they could stare him down, make his life uncomfortable, and things could get interesting. Not saying it will happen, but it’s what I’d like to see, just to generate precedent and example.

    Nothing short of impeachment with success in throwing him out of office will deter Obama. How many times already has he ignored the Congress, ignored the courts, ignored the Constitution, ignored anything but his leftist’s hate American power hate American prosperity? Even if Congress had the will, I don’t think the propaganda machine will give enough info to the American people to see it that way.

    If I didn’t know better, I’d say you were a plant trying to undermine enthusiasm for Romney. ;-)

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  208. Rocky – since a Congress with a spine is an admitted pipe dream, wouldn’t removing the wannabe Emperor from his position of power be logical?

    JD (8a1df4)

  209. 1. … A Congress with a stiff spine and some proper political street-smarts (it’s a big ask, I know) could stare down the executive orders through powers of subpoena, de-funding, and, if necessary, impeachment; same thing for appointments; and in my lifetime (roughly 4 decades), foreign affairs have never been less significant than they are right now, so who cares.

    4. “those who voted Romney into office need to make it clear that 4 years of Democrat-Lite will mean he also will be a one term president.”
    But you know as well as I do that they will never do this. Exhibit A: the evil leftist @ss-clown George W. Bush. Actual conservatives need to stop fighting on the chosen terrain of the liberals,

    I didn’t take the time to read your post thoroughly the first time.

    foreign affairs have never been less significant than they are right now, so who cares.
    That is a huge bit of BS, actually more like PigS, because it stinks a lot more

    Second, I assume you must think #1 and #4 are alternative scenarios, because if you try to pretend a Congress that is that strong and that weak at the same time your head should explode

    No thanks for insulting our intelligence and wasting my time. Go away.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  210. “If I didn’t know better, I’d say you were a plant trying to undermine enthusiasm for Romney.”

    No, my issue is, I don’t much like Romney* but I’m voting for him anyway, in a defensive posture, for the reasons you and others above have stated. And besides, this isn’t a forum where people are likely to waver or switch at this late date, so if I were a plant it would be wasted time.

    I’d like to see someone make a strong case for the offense posture, so I’m poking a beehive with a stick to see what happens, that’s all.

    * — technically, I like Romney as a person, I think he’s at his core a good man. But the problem is, what he’s putting forward is damaged goods, it’s just that they’re less damaged than Obama’s. I can’t tell if Romney is smart enough to know he’s peddling damaged goods but simply thinks it’s the best way to win the election; or if he’s clueless enough to not realize that half the sh#t he’s talking about is nonsense.

    Obama, of course, is talking close to 100% nonsense, so there’s that to consider.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  211. JD, I admire your brevity and wiser use of time than I.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  212. I take it RR that 210 was written before you saw 209.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  213. “Second, I assume you must think #1 and #4 are alternative scenarios”

    You assume wrong. And you know what they say about assume…

    In #1 I addressed the notion of a particular type of sitting Congress, viz. the elected representatives of the People.

    In #4 I addressed what you called “those who voted Romney into office” i.e., the voters, the People themselves. Therein lies a distinction, and a difference. So take your smug superior attitude and stuff it until you have better reading comprehension.

    “That is a huge bit of BS”

    Assertion is not persuasion. Make your case, like a man.

    “No thanks for insulting our intelligence”

    CAPTAIN WILLARD (to COL. KURTZ): I don’t see… _any_ intelligence… sir.

    “Go away.”

    How courageous.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  214. “I take it RR that 210 was written before you saw 209.”

    As I’ve stopped paying attention to your cowardly drooling, it hardly makes a difference now, does it.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  215. Your concern is touching, Rocky.

    JD (8a1df4)

  216. I believe the consensus opinion is that foreign affairs are important, whether “less significant than ever” doesn’t matter much, and that it is on you to prove your assertion (which came first, BTW) that 4 more years of President “I’ll have 4 years to be more flexible, lead from behind, apologize for America, and gut our military” is a matter that “no one cares” about.

    I usually save my smugness for when it is indicated.
    Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, feel free to offer whether I have been inappropriate in my treatment of Mr. R. Raconteur.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  217. We are trading comments on a blog site without even knowing each others identity. How can that be either brave or cowardly?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  218. obama is setting himself up to rule the u.n. with unprecedented power. Vote R.R.

    mg (31009b)

  219. “How can that be either brave or cowardly?”

    As usual, you have misunderstood the premise. It has nothing to do with identity.

    “Go away” (or in the vernacular, “Shut up”) is of its essence the posture of an intellectual coward.

    “I believe the consensus opinion is that foreign affairs are important”

    That still isn’t a case.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  220. Great, another concern troll.

    SPQR (0af796)

  221. __________________________________________

    Given that Obama and Romney are more similar than they are different, the optimal outcome for actual conservatives is a hobbled Obama with a strong and principled congressional opposition.

    I strongly disagree with that, if only because Obama is an ultra-liberal. Or if you or others deem that Romney is liberal, then that would make Obama an ultra-ultra-liberal, if not an ultra-ultra-ultra-liberal (Hello, Jeremiah Wright’s buddy!). An ultra-ultra-liberal who as president will have further sway over the ideological slant of the Supreme Court should he (God forbid) have another 4 years in the White House.

    BTW, I do agree with the assumption that Romney is philosophically squishy, and I can envision moments when I’ll want to holler at him. But when it comes to President “Goddamn America,” just about every moment — every second — of his presidency has made me want to yell at him.

    Mark (4de17c)

  222. “Great, another concern troll.”

    Pfffft.

    Now is the time on Sprockets when I invite you to say something substantive! Otherwise…

    Your story has become tiresome!

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  223. ___________________________________________

    Since the following, Hillary versus Barack?, makes for good gossip, I wonder if it’s going to eventually be linked at the drudgereport.com?:

    theblaze.com: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ordered additional security for the U.S. mission in Benghazi ahead of the terrorist attack but the orders were never carried out, according to “legal counsel” to Clinton who spoke to best-selling author Ed Klein.

    Those same sources also say former President Bill Clinton has been “urging” his wife to release official State Department documents that prove she called for additional security at the compound in Libya, which would almost certainly result in President Obama losing the election.

    Appearing on TheBlazeTV’s “Wilkow!” on Wednesday night, Klein told host Andrew Wilkow that Bill and Hillary Clinton have been having “big fights” for “two or three weeks” about the issue, according to his two sources on Clinton’s legal counsel. While Bill Clinton wishes his wife would “exonerate” herself by releasing the documents that show she wasn’t at fault for the tragic security failure in Libya, the secretary of state refuses to do so because she doesn’t want to be viewed as a traitor to the Democratic party.

    On Glenn Beck’s radio show earlier on Wednesday, Klein said his information comes from two “very good” sources.

    Mark (4de17c)

  224. That still isn’t a case.
    Comment by Rocky Raconteur — 10/25/2012 @ 8:15 am

    Since this conversation has devolved into name calling and other childishness, I’ll point out that you begged the question first with the claim that foreign affairs are currently not important as a reason to get Obama out of the White House. Since you were the first to beg the question, I’ll let you take first responsibility for giving evidence for your position.

    “Go away” or “Shut up” may be a statement of an intellectual coward, but I suggest it can also be the statement of someone who doesn’t want to be bothered with a disingenuous discussant. If you think my opinion of your arguments are in error, how about defending them instead of attacking me and resorting to name calling? I did not start with ad hominem attacks, I started with commentary on your claims.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  225. “I’ll point out that you begged the question first”

    Irrelevant. I stated something in passing, and you tagged it with the aggressive assertion “pig shit”. The begging therefore, I am happy to say, is all yours, beggar.

    Nevertheless I’ll be happy to oblige.

    From 1945 to 1989, America and her allies were under continual threat from a nuclear-armed international intercontinental superpower, the USSR, along with its satellite states including (from time to time) the People’s Republic of China, with combined forces of over a billion people and two or more well-equipped combat-seasoned transcontinental armies full of energy and ambition, spanning the whole of the Eurasian mother continent, and with strong ambitions every place else. What’s more, they had a fully stated and fully articulated ideology which proclaimed explicitly its intent to encircle and engulf the capitalist West.

    Sounds like a bit of a bear to deal with, don’t ya reckon?

    When the Soviet Union fell in 1989, we faced the interesting foreign policy challenge (and moreover had an EPIC FAIL) to bring the crumbled Russian superstate onside with us, to thereby avert all sorts of future mischief — after all, they weren’t our blood enemies, merely our ideological enemies; they were and are communicants in the Christian West via their European heritage and the glorious Eastern Orthodox Church. They no longer had the will nor the means to invade or nuke the West and slit our throats. Ideology was a dead issue. There was no reason at all why there should not have been a pan-American pan-European alliance stretching from the Rockies to the Urals, and from Anchorage to Vladivostock. Oh, except that we let Russia slip away just when we had it in orbit, and allowed it to be plundered and economically raped by those conveniently-named “oligarchs” which elides a great deal from their actual identity; and thus we caused a ruckus of resentment where none was necessary (except necesarry for certain interested parties) and allowed Euro continental affairs to become more futzed than they otherwise might be.

    You may argue the details of the above, but my point in this post is, that post-1989, foreign affairs for the US still had an aura of Utmost Importance, it’s simply that we botched the job.

    What do we see today? A Pax Americana which nobody really has much firm interest in up-ending (the Chinese make noises, but they know which side of their bread is buttered). Europe is at peace, Russia is at peace, Asia is at peace, South America is at relative peace, both our ocean flanks are well guarded from invasion.

    Africa… well except for the Chinese locking up their resources, who gives a flying f#ck? The only foreign policy objective w/r/t Africa is to keep them from coming here en masse.

    The Subcontinent is a nuisance but it is manageable, and in any event it is ultimately not our affair. If the Indians and the Pakis finally decide in the face of all reasonable deterrents that they want to nuke each other, there is precious little we can do about it.

    What does that leave? Our two bullshit non-vital wars in the Middle East, a confusion over the government of Syria (who cares?) and another dustup over an Iranian atomic bomb.

    Are you kidding me? An Iranian Flintstones-era bomb? After we had the nous to face down the nuclear USSR and the nuclear PRC? You think Iran is a problem? Do you know what an actual problem looks like?

    What has been the big “foreign policy” issue in the headlines? A guerrilla attack in Libya on an unguarded US embassy that resulted in…. four deaths?

    Look at a map. Where is Libya? Oh, that’s right, it sits on the Mediterranean, which is an American lake. What is its population? What are its military assets? How on earth can it pose a credible threat to a nation of 300 million with nuclear arms and the world’s mightiest air force, which in a worst-case scenario is nevertheless capable of taking casualties of thousands per day in battle (which btw won’t happen) without its vigor being diminished?

    Compared to the vital political and existential and nuclear questions posed by international Communism in my youth, what on earth would you say are the comparable foreign policy issues today, in which we negotiate about our debt to our chief rival, China, and our main international foe, the Dar-al-Islam, is a disunited and technologically backward bunch of primitives whose chief threat can be shut down by a bureaucrat’s pen ending their ceaseless immigration into our sphere? Absent that, what are they going to do — throw an atomic falafel at us?

    Your turn, champ. Prove me wrong.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  226. I don’t get why they have to call people to get opinion for poll results anyway:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/24/time-produces-most-worthless-poll-of-2012

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  227. Romney and Obama tied in Michigan

    If Michigan is this close, Obama is toast.

    Chuck Bartowski (11fb31)

  228. 195.I read an interesting analysis (forget where) about what election outcome would be best for actual conservatives, viz. as opposed to GOP establishment. The thought went like this:

    Romney is not a true conservative, so if he is elected, the GOP political structure will rally around him out of party loyalty, as he attempts to pass a number of highly non-conservative measures.

    This is to vague to require response. Any mandate Willard will have pertains 1. to create jobs 2. reduce spending and 3. undoing anything Dog has done, e.g., any and all executive orders. Please be specific on initiatives you allude to, to wit, Cap and Trade?

    Given that Obama and Romney are more similar than they are different, the optimal outcome for actual conservatives is a hobbled Obama with a strong and principled congressional opposition.

    The same? Have we moved on to Afghanistan or Syria? Give examples please.

    Therefore, the best outcome for conservatives, ironically, is this:

    1. GOP keeps the House and takes the Senate.

    agreed

    2. Romney wins the popular vote, but is narrowly edged out in the Electoral College vote.

    nonsense

    3. Obama re-elected on a technicality, but in the face of an angry electorate who grant him zero mandate, and a united GOP congress determined to check him at every step.

    see above following 2.

    4. Nothing much gets done in DC for 4 years, but this is good, because:
    a) Romney’s agenda is substantially similar to Obama’s, and now both are thwarted, and

    what are you talking about, ‘substantially similar’. Can you articulate?

    b) In reality it isn’t within the president’s power (and certainly not within his brief) to “fix” the economy. This will have to happen of its own accord. With the government paralyzed, the economy stands a better chance of recovering.

    ok, this I get, ‘government is the problem’. You are looking for no new legislation. Most of us are looking for repeal and reform. You are more likely to be satisfied. Such is life.

    It won’t play out that way exactly, of course, but I found the whole thing interesting.

    Thoughts?

    Comment by Rocky Raconteur — 10/25/2012 @ 5:10 am

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  229. 226. Carbonized toast.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  230. Just wanted to tiptoe back in here, because this thread went stale for a while, to remind the despicable Milhouse that he is in fact despicable.

    Scroll back up to #193. There’s my position.

    Ciao.

    up the junction (5a9950)

  231. I suppose it would be nice of me to point out to RR all the many “tells” in his very first post which advertised to me in bright neon what his real purpose was here this morning. But I won’t. :) Obviously, Rocky really really really wanted to engage and share his concerns and thoughts with the folks on this thread. Several of you even attempted to be nice to him and reason with him– which is your style and shows you’re a far better person than I. I’m glad to see that most everyone eventually reached the same conclusion about our helpful little raconteur that I did.

    elissa (274efd)

  232. and shows you’re a far better person than I.

    Not necessarily.
    If you are talking about me, since I did try to engage him, I confess to needing new glasses ’cause sometimes I just joust at windmills.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  233. For MD in Philly (not that I care)….

    Just so you know, I wrote you a rather lengthy and (for good or ill) cogent analysis/reply to your question concerning foreign policy, and someone seems to have deleted it. I’m not sure, but I believe some of my other comments explicating my position have been deleted as well.

    Now that just ain’t cricket.

    If you guys are going to play dirty pool, then that’s it, I’m gone. Addio.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  234. Ah no, there it is again, back at #225. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me.

    Anyway, ball in your court, dude.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  235. Mr. R Raconteur:

    Apparently you have not been here often. Our host and those who have access to running the blog have an extremely high threshold for what intentionally gets censored. Literally, one almost has to include threats of violence along with giving a home address for the victim to show they are serious. There are many more pleas for someone to be censored than people who do get censored.

    On occasion something gets caught in the automatic filter and it may be hours or the next day before it is caught, since all the people that have access to do that have full time employment other than tending this site.

    So, with that said, I will see what Patterico, JD, and others can find stuck in the filter and tend to the problem so it can be made visible.

    And yes, I don’t think anyone that frequents here plays cricket.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  236. Nobody deleted anything. Having said that, the rules around here are pretty clear, and right now you are commenting under at least 3 names – Rocky, Gojira, and up the junction. No mas. Pick one, and quit being a d-bag.

    JD (318f81)

  237. thanks for changing your name from Pat Tillman, assuming (as I do) that you’re the same guy, Mr Rocky.

    and someone seems to have deleted it. I’m not sure, but I believe some of my other comments explicating my position have been deleted as well.

    This site definitely doesn’t practice viewpoint discrimination, but it does have a strong filter against spam that gets some false positives that take a little while to pull out of the filter. It happens to me all the time, and I’m a friend of the host. Don’t take it personally.

    Dustin (73fead)

  238. It is not Illman, Dustin.

    It did use repeated words that trigger the filter, in the released novella above.

    JD (318f81)

  239. As I said, me hearties, I once again saw it re-appear, and as of this post it remains extant. Can’t tell if it was a scrolling error on my part, or whether it got caught up in spam and was later restored. In any event, I take your avowals of good faith in, well, good faith.

    And no, I’m not p.tillman if you’re wondering.

    Well, MD in Philly, I hope you can now see my views about the relative importance of foreign policy. I don’t mind saying that I’m a neo-isolationist and somewhat of a neo-protectionist, with necessary modifications to avoid utter insanity.

    Now to you.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  240. Nobody deleted anything. Having said that, the rules around here are pretty clear, and right now you are commenting under at least 3 names – Rocky, Gojira, and up the junction. No mas. Pick one, and quit being a d-bag.

    Just in case you missed it.

    JD (318f81)

  241. The thing that happened on 9/11/2001 made it clear that with the technology of today a country does not need to be concerned with only nation states capable of launching a credible traditional military attack. Glad to see you think Reagan was incredibly successful at making the world a safer place.

    For myself, I’m not sure how to calculate and compare the risk of a Soviet missile hitting Philadelphia in 1985 (random date) and the risk of an attack in Philly tomorrow from a terrorist group that kills one or more of my family members.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  242. JD — nobody likes a nark.

    Rocky Raconteur (5a9950)

  243. 234. Re: 225. “Ball in your court”.

    But what about 195? There is no chance of #2 & #3 of your scenario to come true. Sean Trende had a post not 2 weeks back indicating the improbability of a redo of 2000.

    Again, how are Romany’s and BootBlack’s proposals similar? First the economy. Show us you have anything at all.

    Or don’t bother.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  244. JD — nobody likes a nark.
    Comment by Rocky Raconteur — 10/25/2012 @ 1:49 pm

    Actually, around here we not only say we like transparency, we actually practice it.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  245. JD — nobody likes a nark.

    Comment by Rocky Raconteur — 10/25/2012 @ 1:49 pm |Edit This

    I am not the least bit concerned with your opinion of me. The rules are simple, and clearly stated.

    JD (8a1df4)

  246. Are you kidding me? An Iranian Flintstones-era bomb? After we had the nous to face down the nuclear USSR and the nuclear PRC? You think Iran is a problem? Do you know what an actual problem looks like?

    The big difference between the USSR and China from Iran is; The USSR and China didn’t have a crazy megalomaniac with a death wish in control of their nukes. They didn’t want to die. They did not threaten to nuke Israel off the map. They did not believe that the destruction of Israel would usher in the return of their Mahdi. They didn’t believe that by sacrificing themselves they would be rewarded with 72 virgins apiece in Paradise.

    If Iran gets nukes, be afraid, BE VERY AFRAID CAUSE THEY WILL F*CKING USE THEM!

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  247. Clean sweep. The awakening of America.

    Bill (2ff847)

  248. Predictions? Obama wins and Romney throws a tantrum and won’t even congratulate the president on his reelection. Obama wins. Sorry folks. I saw it in a vision around May. :)

    The Emperor (03864d)

  249. Quit popping those ‘shrooms and the visions delusions will stop.

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  250. Yeah, chimp. Romney is a tantrum throwing kind of guy. You should be embarrassed.

    JD (8a1df4)

  251. November will tell. My dreams happen.

    The Emperor (03864d)

  252. I think “chimp” is racist.

    The Emperor (03864d)

  253. That’s right, you are racist. Agree 100 percent.

    peedoffamerican (ee1de0)

  254. Really? Chimp is racist? I do not have any idea what race you are, nor do i care. Nor does it really matter. I suppose you can show us where you objected to Bush being called chimp. We will not hold our breath waiting.

    JD (8a1df4)

  255. More predictions. Obama wins and oversees the best economic recovery in history. Unemployment hits an all time low of 5.1. America takes back her place of power as the greatest nation on earth: economically and otherwise. 4 yrs of prosperity. Obama helps get a Democrat into the White House when his tenure ends. :)

    The Emperor (fc6588)

  256. I wouldn’t call you or anyone chimp. There’s a reason people have names; so you know what to address them by. Here your handle is JD. And that’s what I call you.

    The Emperor (3db71b)

  257. You are a silly, silly little Emperor, aren’t you?

    Pious Agnostic (2c3220)

  258. That is significantly different than calling someone racist, lovie.

    JD (8a1df4)

  259. And by the way I think it’s juvenile to seek to justify a behaviour by saying “but they started it”. Two wrongs don’t make a right. I never called the 43rd President Chimp or any derogatory name. To me he was George Bush.

    The Emperor (fc6588)

  260. JD — nobody likes a nark.
    Comment by Rocky Raconteur —

    He’s a moderator, and he’s asking you to stop breaking well stated rules so that it’s easier to have a conversation. Commenting under many names is unnecessary if your arguments make sense.

    It’s really just a matter of being an adult.

    Dustin (73fead)

  261. And I think it is hypocritical of you to call people racist for a word now, expressed at you, when you aired no such objection when directed at those you oppose. Goose gander, and all.

    JD (8a1df4)

  262. JD. I think you get the point. I think within you is the ability to maintain civility. No need to resort to name calling.

    The Emperor (3db71b)

  263. Coming from the person that tried to insinuate I was touching on children, that is rich.

    And though I do understand your point, I in no way think you understand mine.

    JD (8a1df4)

  264. Mitt wins with 271 electoral votes and gets 53% of the vote. That leaves Obama with the infamous 47%.
    Mitt losses Ohio. Wins all of the south, NH, WI & CO.

    Mattsky (f32444)

  265. Comment by The Emperor — 10/25/2012 @ 4:52 pm

    Sarah Hoyt, guest blogging at Instapundit, writes far more believable science fiction.

    SPQR (768505)

  266. I’ve decided this election reminds me most of Clinton-Bush ’92. It had incumbent President Bush who was known for his calm demeanor, strong military action (Desert Storm), and a weak, struggling economy. Clinton, the challenger, portrayed himself as a moderate focused on a strong economy. The conventional wisdom says the 2012 election will be close but 1992 wasn’t.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  267. Apparently I’m not the only one reminded of Bush 41.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  268. But Clinton-Bush was decided, I think, by having Perot in it. I think Clinton had significantly less than 50% of the popular vote.

    President Bush-I actually lead from the front.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  269. Emperor, the lowest annualized peacetime unemployment rate in recent memory was 2000: 4.0. Of course it was the end of a bubble, just like the previous record of 4.2% in 1928. There have been lower rates (e.g. 1.2% in 1944), but they had do do with large military “employment”

    So, your “record” of 5.1% is, like the rest of it, full of it.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  270. Clinton won with about 43% of the vote. Perot took 19% and his absence would have transformed the race.

    Most of his voters were protesting deficit spending, the national debt and DC’s corrupt ways.

    Wonder what happened to people who felt that way?

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  271. Kevin, not only is our unemployment rate historically high, but the major thing keeping it from being higher is the horde of people giving up on employment or simply working part time jobs (a problem greatly exacerbated by Obamacare).

    Democrats who scoff at this being a problem at all are the reason Romney will (and must) win.

    Dustin (73fead)

  272. John Ellis gives his analysis as follows: (still the top entry in his blog)

    http://johnellis.blogspot.com/

    He gives North Carolina, Virginia and Florida to Romney, and Pennsylvania to Obama.

    Also Colorado to Romney,although close. He’s not ready to make a prediction about Nevada. The mormon vote si too much an X factor.

    Wisconsin is too close to call.

    Obama is slightly ahead in Ohio and the race may be decidxed by 25,000 votes or less. My comment: That means it may be decided by what voters do after November 6. Decisuions made after else has voted.

    As follows: There will a good number of provisional ballots. These virtual votes can turn into real votes if voters return to the polls with ID. That will depend on what those voters feel afetr November 6. They may have voted for Obama and then decide not to make their votes real. Both campaigns will be trying to get their provisional voters to make their votes real. They will have I think until November 17. Absentee votes have to be postmarked before election days, but a decision as to whether to make avirtual vote real can wait till later.

    There can be litigation dealing with availability of ID and whether votes cast at the wroing precinct should count.

    Iowa and New Hampshire are stone cold tossups, he says.

    He does not expect Maine to split – maybe because thinbgs are just simpler that way.

    Omaha will go for Romney.

    Iowa and New Hampshire = 10 Electoral votes. With Wisconsin, 20 Electoral votes.

    If Obama gets Ohio and Iowa but loses New Hampshire and Wisconsin he has 262. With Nevada 268. (with Wisconsin 278)

    If Romney gets Wisconsin but NH and Ohio and Nevada and Iowa are undecided he has 262.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  273. I’ve been saying this for well over a month.

    Romney wins, beating Obama at least as bad as Obama beat McCain.

    Republicans increase control of the House, and take control of the Senate.

    Even Aiken wins in Missouri

    gahrie (acbb2d)

  274. romney by +3.

    joelund (4e9726)

  275. I predict that the actual results of the election will take a week to tally, during which time accusations of voter fraud will fly in both directions. Shades of 2000.

    CrustyB (69f730)

  276. ______________________________________________

    The conventional wisdom says the 2012 election will be close…

    It will be outrageous if it is, considering how dogmatic and disreputable Obama is. Never before has a person with such a radical “goddamn America” history, along with displaying utter incompetence and deceit right up to the end (ie, Benghazi), occupied the White House.

    Mark (66bba6)

  277. #230, “up the junction”, who JD informs us is also Rocky and Gojira, is still a white supremacist piece of sh*t.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  278. Five Scenarios (Bob Krumm)

    I link to #5, although I think #4 is more likely.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  279. I predict I’ll be voting for Republicans, and voting against any proposition that gives the state government more power or more money.

    Same as I always do.

    Dave Surls (46b08c)

  280. President – Romney get 335
    Senate – GOP gets 51
    House – GOP gains 5
    First campaign ad for 2016 come on Nov 8, after a day off for resting.

    Roger (da2ca2)

  281. Democrats rejected nationwide. The near universal rejection of of Dem candidates in 2010 is repeated in 2012. GOP wins both Houses of Congress and the Presidency along with most governorships and majorities in most state legislatures.

    Democrats use today’s phony polling data as a basis to claim the GOP stole another election. Yada, yada, yada!

    ropelight (4bedce)

  282. The Republicans (hopefully Conservatives) have a REAL chance to increase their House seats and take over the Senate by several seats.

    Worthwhile reading for the day before the presidential election 2012:

    Romney for President
    The Obama record is unimpressive.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332484/mitt-romney-president-editors

    AdrianS (6bcbdf)

  283. Romney – 300+

    Bill M (e0a4e5)

  284. The election will come down to Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and the 2nd district of Maine.

    Romney will need only 8 Electoral votes to win and 7 to tie.

    Winning either Ohio or Wisconsin will put him over the top, or, if he has New Hampshire, any one of the others will put him over the top.

    And without New Hampshire either Iowa or Nevada plus the 2nd district of Maine will tie.

    We won’t know the winner on November 7. Obama will probably have to run the table of the undecided states to win.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  285. Some douche-bag is going to become president.

    jorgeborges (762830)

  286. Romney 279 Obama 259

    Senate Dems 51 Repubs 49

    House Repubs 242 Dems 193 a gain of 1 for R’s?

    phaedruscj (dc2574)

  287. Romney by a surprisingly comfortable margin-about 52-47 in the popular vote, about 315 EC votes. Romney wins almost all the swing states.

    GOP picks up 3-4 seats in the House.

    Senate breaks 50-50, with Paul Ryan in position to cast the tie-breaker.

    Hayabusa (d3a02c)

  288. Intrade has Romney at 2-1 against. Just sayin’

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  289. Romney with 53% PV; 324 EV
    House +3 Pickup for Republicans
    Senate 51-49 R Majority

    Brian Closs (ffdeb7)

  290. Romney 291 EV
    Dems hold Senate 51-49
    Republicans pick up 9 seats in house.

    Rich Horton (3ef32b)

  291. CNN’s latest poll shows that Romney is up among independents by 22 points. In 2008, Obama won that group by 8 points. In 2008, we were D+8 nationally, 39% to 31%. Now, we’re anywhere from R+3 to R+6, and the Republican tends to win anything R-0.5 or above.

    So, with that in mind: 53-46 Romney.

    Electoral College: 317-221, with Romney taking Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and the usual suspects.

    I’ve been predicting a MI win for over a month; the latest polls show a dead heat.

    Senate: we win 14 of the 33, and we take over the Senate. That happens. That said, I think we’re going to have a Sen. Donnolly.

    Senate: 51-49 GOP.

    House: not sure we gain or lose. I’ll guess up by 6, to account for redistricting since 2010.

    bridget (862c19)

  292. Election day prediction. The MFM has already gotten their “Dewey Beats Truman” propaganda written up:

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/early-election-results-via-msnbc-148500.html

    [Headline] Early election results, via NBC

    Seems a test-page for tomorrow night’s results has gone public. Claire McCaskill has already won.

    Steve57 (320590)

  293. (The popular vote could be a bigger spread – I wouldn’t discount 55-44 or so – but I’ll err on the side of caution since everyone thinks it’s a squeaker. But no one has explained how the raw numbers translate into anything but a solid Romney win, so I say “at least by seven”.)

    bridget (862c19)

  294. Not an election day prediction but an inauguration day prediction.

    When Romney is sworn in, all of a sudden the homeless will come back.

    Has anyone seen them for the past four years? I haven’t. The local rag hasn’t had an article on them. Neither have I seen anything about them on TV.

    Obama must have fixed the problem, what with his booming economy and full employment and all.

    But just swearing Romney in will undo everything the “lightworker” did.

    Steve57 (320590)

  295. Romney 381 – 157

    Ken Finney (9d1344)

  296. I read Stephen Green’s electoral wargaming. His [url=http://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2012/11/05/wargaming-the-electoral-college-the-final-edition/]current set of maps[/url]. I confess one minute I think its going to be a 271-267 squeeker and the next I think its going to be Ronald Wilson Romney (see his maps for the reference).

    The enthusiasm gap seems very large but its easy to be caught up in that. That’s why I can’t really make a prediction – because I write on down and then go back and erase it and write down the opposite. I’m confident of a Romney win but don’t know if it will be close or a wave.

    But just for the record, I think I’m closest to Stephen’s “Smart Republican Money” (page 3 of the link above) but I think Romney will pick up Michigan for Romney 301 Obama 237 electoral votes.

    SPQR (768505)

  297. Aaarg, I botched the url.

    SPQR (768505)

  298. When Romney is sworn in, all of a sudden the homeless will come back.

    Of course. This is an old phenomenon, and well-studied. Homelessness is caused by Republican administrations. I can only assume it’s because D presidents set up a massive shelter in the White House basement, and incoming Rs kick them out. It happened with Carter and with Clinton and again with 0bama.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  299. Though if you want to find homeless people now we’ve got plenty of them here in Brooklyn. I got a notice that my polling place has been moved, because my regularly assigned one is full of refugees.

    Milhouse (15b6fd)

  300. Electoral College Obama 315 Romney 222
    Popular vote Obama 50.9 Romney 48.2
    Senate Dems 52 Repub 48

    Matte Email (f23836)

  301. I think it was the CNN poll today had the race tied and that is with a D+9 sample.
    Just based upon that info, I predict Romney by a landslide.

    MSL (5f601f)

  302. I previously predicted Obama wins with 50.5% of the vote. At this point, that’s probably low. For the official roll, I’ll go to 50.9%, and about 330 electoral votes.

    Dems hold the Senate.

    JRM (cd0a37)

  303. Romney wins by more than anyone has predicted, because all the numbers have been so ridiculously weighted it’s criminal.
    The Dems scream “foul”
    The mindless minions of OWS will respond to “said foul” by taking to the streets
    Chaos ensues.
    The one declares martial law and calls for a “commission” to investigate “allegations of impropriety”… he hires a former ACORN chairman to head this “commission”.

    All hell breaks loose.

    I really HOPE I’m wrong here.

    Smock Puppet, 10th Dan Snark Master and Aviary Enthusiast (8e2a3d)

  304. .

    ================
    ===Nov. 6, 2012===
    ================

    The day we Hope to Change
    The One”
    to
    The Last One”

    .

    Smock Puppet, 10th Dan Snark Master and Aviary Enthusiast (8e2a3d)

  305. Romney 331
    Obama 207

    Senate 52R 48D(Including Sanders)

    House +5R

    This elections biggest losers:

    1. Obama
    2. Obamacare
    3. The MSM
    4. Nate Silver

    RWBuckeye (4d519c)

  306. Romney gets 315 and Gary Johnson gets the rest!

    RecklessProcess (b3a1f5)

  307. I have fun with, lead to I found just what I was having a look for.
    You have ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man.
    Have a great day. Bye

    Papasolgirona.Com (07daa7)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 1.0149 secs.