Patterico's Pontifications

9/10/2012

Our Republican Candidate Is Toast

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:45 pm



Via Ace comes this depressing assessment of the presidential race:

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows Romney leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Barack Obama leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Obama leads by an average of five points. It’s fashionable at this stage to caution that “anything can happen,” that Romney is “retooling,” and that the numbers can turn in Romney’s favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can’t. The numbers are moving toward Obama because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. . . .

Yes, in principle, Romney could win. The stock market could crash. Obama could be caught shagging an intern. Romney could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Romney will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. . . . [L]ook closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you’ll realize why it’s practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Obama doesn’t just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.

Depressing, right? Well, maybe not so much.

See, if you click the link, you’ll see that my quotation is not quite accurate. I substituted “Romney” for “Bush” and “Obama” for “Gore.” Yes, the quote is from William Saletan, during the 2000 presidential election, explaining why Bush couldn’t possibly win.

I’m sure Saletan is out there making confident pronouncements even today. Gotta pay the bills somehow. But every so often it’s good to look at recent history for perspective.

As Ace says: “So we’re behind. We’ve been behind before.”

And how are those individual factors looking? I mentioned them before but it’s worth revisiting:

  • Unemployment: 7.8% then, 8.1% now
  • Median income: $54,983 then, $50,964 now
  • Gas prices: $1.85 per gallon then, $3.78 now
  • National debt: $10.6 trillion then, $16 trillion now

When a guy is making things worse and says he hasn’t had time to finish the job, maybe you don’t want him to finish the job.

53 Responses to “Our Republican Candidate Is Toast”

  1. Racist

    mg (44de53)

  2. Your list of individual factors neatly sums up the core of this election for me. It’s precisely what they are hoping we don’t focus on. It’s damning.

    And one simply need ask: If this is where his on-the-job abilities and skills have gotten us, what reason have we to believe the downward trend will not continue if he stays on the job?

    Dana (292dcf)

  3. The Slate author was basically right. Gore won the popular vote by a healthy margin, and historically the electoral college follows the popular vote (with something like 2 exceptions, besides the 2000 race.) What happened in 2000 was that Bush got damn lucky. So Ace’s bit does not cheer me up.

    Americans were effing morons to elect Obama the first time, given how obvious is was that the guy was a committed Leftist. I’m hoping we all the got wisdom in 4 years, but I’m not sure how that works.

    Brian (8d0329)

  4. If I may, a bit a good news. According to Gallup Romney should win, history is on his side. http://macsmind.com/wordpress/2012/09/according-to-gallup-romney-should-win-the-election/

    Jack Moss (676136)

  5. if america gets obama’d for four more years she’ll get it good and hard she will

    but then of course she won’t really be america anymore will she

    happyfeet (f3ee52)

  6. If people really think the reality of the President is better than the possibility of Romney, well, sometimes you get what you deserve.

    I have more hope than that. But, you do have to take into consideration just how many people invested their hearts and souls into a cipher.

    I don’t know how, but Romney has to somehow defeat the lap-dog press and a complacent people who think that what they do really does not matter.

    Ag80 (b2c81f)

  7. Brian – Gore won the popular vote by a healthy margin?? He won by 0.5%, and that’s after the networks gave FL to Gore, which, IMHO, affected voter turnout for Bush. Why continuing voting when everyone knew the Bush MUST win FL. In fact, many feel that FL would not have been close if the panhandle was not told that “it was all over” before voting closed.

    JFH (da9245)

  8. JFH beat me to the punch.

    Exactly…out of almost 102 million votes cast, Gore won by about 500,000, or .5%.
    That’s not a healthy margin.

    And the networks depressed the Florida panhandle (which is in the central time zone) vote by deliberately calling the electoral votes for the entire state too early. Later on, a study was done in an effort to determine how many GOP votes may have been depressed by that early call, and it was determined to be in the tens of thousands, when one considers the GOP turnout of prior and ensuing elections.

    I wonder how many GOP voters stayed home upon learning of that Bush DUI (from the 1970s) that was conveniently reported during the campaign’s final weekend.

    Elephant Stone (65d289)

  9. Bush was Bush and Obama God save him is Obama but Romney is infinitely malleable

    he might could be an amazing president in n number of possible Romney permutations

    happyfeet (f3ee52)

  10. “Gallup polling today put Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 4 points after the godless DNC Convention.”

    “Back in 1980 Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid to late September… And, Carter was up 8 points in October. In fact there was a published Gallup poll showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27.”–The Gateway Pundit

    The polls mean dick.

    Dave Surls (46b08c)

  11. Given the uneven Convention coverage, with the Republicans splitting time with a hurricane and the endless references to Katrina, this isn’t much of a surprise.

    Give it a week.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  12. “I’m sure Saletan is out there making confident pronouncements even today”

    Wiki says he’s a Republican?! Living in Bethesda, MD. Right.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  13. I would love to find gas at $3.78 a gal. I had to pay $4.21 for regular 2 days ago.

    Sara (e8f5d4)

  14. Romney is going to win and I predict he wins big. Remember that in ’88 after the Dem convention, Dukakis was up 17 pt. over Bush 41. And that was the year that Clinton gave that interminable speech and wouldn’t leave the podium.

    Sara (e8f5d4)

  15. WaPo/ABC News poll out this evening, Obama up by 1 in a D+10 poll. Reasons why I don’t think Obama can win:

    1. Democrats are hemorrhaging voters. Current number of registered Democrats is -200,000 from 2008 in FL and -100,000 in NC. In swing states, Democrats are down 800,000 voters from 2008 (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania).

    New Democrat registrations are running 10% of 2008 numbers in 2012 nationally. Republican registrations are running 200% and Independent registrations 400 percent. In Florida alone, new Democrat registrations are down 96% from 2008 while Republican registrations are up 25%.

    Ok, so we have fewer Dems and we don’t seem to have a lot of enthusiasm. Now, Obama won by 7 points. Looking at various polls on his key demographic affinity groups, he seems to have lost more than 7 points from them. Women, black, hispanic, youth, all down more than 7 points from last year. Romney is also pulling more crossover Dems than Obama is pulling crossover Reps, about twice to three times as many depending on the poll.

    The WaPo poll is a D+10 poll and there was only a D+7 turnout in 2008. I don’t know what the turnout was nationally in 2010 because the offices up for election varied so much. 2004 was pretty much a dead even turnout. 2012 will probably be somewhere between 2008 and 2004. Split the difference, be generous to the Dems and call it a D+4 turnout in 2012. That number is rectal extraction but probably not too far off the reality.

    2008 was a very motivated Democratic base. 2012 shows Obama unable to draw the crowds he did in 2008, unable to pull in the money he pulled in 2008, many of his major 2008 donors have defected to the Republicans. Romney has had some success raising money in “blue” areas. So we see a somewhat less motivated Democratic Party than we saw in 2008.

    There are a lot of pissed off unemployed people out there. I don’t know how many of them are responding to polls. If their phones are disconnected or they have bill collectors chasing them, they probably aren’t answering. There might be a pool of several million unemployed folks out there who voted for Obama last time who aren’t going to vote for him this time but that is speculation on my part.

    But just the combination of loss of support from key demographics, loss of Democrat voters in key states, and lack of apparent enthusiasm makes a D+4 turnout seem realistic and might be a little high.

    With D+4 turnout, Obama loses. I am still calling the election Romney +5 points.

    crosspatch (6adcc9)

  16. When the guy you hired to remodel your kitchen doesn’t show up half the time, has overspent on the budget, been unable to effect the simplest tasks, blames all his problems on whoever did the kitchen the first time, has installed misaligned and badly finished cabinets and now wants more time to finish the countertop?

    It’s time to let them go.

    Otherwise it’s called throwing good money after bad.

    Jcw46 (b4329c)

  17. Yup.

    Polsters always select the perfect 1,000 or so sample.

    And they always get the perfect 1,000 or so to respond.

    And the ones who respond from the perfect 1,000 or so sample always tell the truth.

    nk (875f57)

  18. Where is gasoline only $3.78 a gallon?’Twas $3.999 this morning at the Turkey Hill in Jim Thorpe. 🙁

    The Dana in Pennsylvania (3e4784)

  19. Examiner.com does an analysis of CNN/ORC poll that has Obama ahead of Romney 52 to 46, but thinks it is skewed to dems and unskewed would be Romney up 53 to 43. The sample of registered voters was 397 Republicans and 441 Democrats, so no more than 37 Independents? Clearly poll undersamples Rep. and Independents.

    Also wonder what impact axelrod and various obama fellating functionaries have on the pollsters when the Obots are putting pressure on the pollsters.

    As above I recall Gore-lover Dan Rather calling 2000 election in Florida early for Gore. Thank god at least that elderly Jewish voters were confused by that butterfly ballot designed by a dem Theresa Lapore, since thrown under the bus. And who really knows how honest those subjective judges were with hanging chads, etc. And you generally don’t here how liberals went to nursing homes and got Gore votes from Alzheimers patients.
    Or more recently how apparently only 31% of black voters from ’08 in a certain area of Milwaukee can not be found now.

    Dana in Pa….Jim Thorpe indeed. Its namesake was in the news recently. Now there was an injustice done to a native American, robbing him of honors. Been there- quaint tourist town. Recall some maps had it as Mauch Chunk. Must have been something in its day with all the millionaires, including Asa Packer.

    Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8)

  20. This election comes down to “Do You Want 4 More Years of Obama?”

    If enough Moochers go out and Vote, he likely wins.

    Rodney King's Spirit (aeda60)

  21. The ABC/Washington Poat poll, with a +10 D, has it within one point, so just get your towel

    narciso (ee31f1)

  22. Or, all the attempts by Republicans to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, by requiring specific voter ID’s, under the guise of preventing an insignificant amount of voter fraud, could work.

    tadcf (77cf5c)

  23. How appropriate it is that you stopped by, tadcf. Would you like to see the latest headline? Here ya go:
    “The Democratic Party candidate for Maryland’s Congressional District 1 seat, Wendy Rosen, has just withdrawn from the race amid allegations of — wait for it — voter fraud.”

    Icy (ae1d87)

  24. Funny how that works, isn’t it Icy,

    narciso (ee31f1)

  25. Or, all the attempts by Republicans to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, by requiring specific voter ID’s, under the guise of preventing an insignificant amount of voter fraud, could work.

    Comment by tadcf — 9/11/2012 @ 6:24 am

    What’s an “insignificant amount” of voter fraud?

    Gerald A (f26857)

  26. What’s an “insignificant amount” of voter fraud?

    Any fraudulent votes that go to Democrat candidates. You should know better than to ask a question like that.

    Chuck Bartowski (3bccbd)

  27. Just enough to put Stuart Smalley in the Senate, to keep Rossi out of the state house in Olympia, to keep Murkowski in the Senate

    narciso (ee31f1)

  28. What’s an “insignificant amount” of voter fraud?

    The amount of fraud necessary to get the win for the Democrat.

    Roland (5ff18d)

  29. tadcf,

    It is so easy for anyone to obtain a proper form of photo ID. This silly premise that minorities and poor people don’t have a voter ID is simply untrue.

    Poor people use a photo ID to cash their entitlement checks at the bank, they use a photo ID to purchase alcohol, they use a photo ID to rent a car, they use a photo ID to get a library card, they use a photo ID to get a passport, they use a photo ID to get on an airplane, and they use a photo ID to get access to the Justice Department as well as the Democrat National Convention.

    And poor people with bad credit are more likely to have a checking account than an authorized credit card, so they’re asked to provide a photo ID when they write a check at a store.

    Of course, we could solve the “problem” of poor people allegedly “not having” proper photo ID by providing them with a proper photo ID so they can take it to the polls on election day, but you lefties would oppose that because you know it would defeat your “but they don’t have photo ID meme” once and for all, and that would take the fuel out of your organized Democrat voter fraud machine.

    Elephant Stone (65d289)

  30. Tadcf is so cute. Same old, same old.

    JD (0b7085)

  31. Everyone keeps talking about the economy and saying its all about the economy. Is it? Are you sure? A democrat by the name of FDR managed to win 4 straight elections amidst the terrible economy his policies created, but that didn’t stop a majority of voters from being duped into reelecting him.

    I disagree that this election will be all about the economy. And I think the Obama campaign strategists agree. I don’t think we should put all of our eggs into one basket. This thing has got to be fought on different fronts.

    School Marm (aac638)

  32. To clarify, Wendy Rosen wasn’t accused of being the beneficiary of voter fraud; she actually committed voter fraud herself, personally.

    In 2008 she voted in the presidential primary in two different states (Maryland and Florida). She voted for governor in the general election for both states in 2006.

    Boy, what I wouldn’t give to vote against Gov. Moonbeam from over here in AZ!

    Icy (ae1d87)

  33. __________________________________________

    but that didn’t stop a majority of voters from being duped into reelecting him.

    A similar dynamic of that in today’s era would be far worse because the middle ground has shifted to the left — a good deal further to the left — than where it was back when Roosevelt was alive and well. That’s best symbolized by many Democrats at their convention last week resisting the idea of putting the word “God” back into their party’s platform.

    Or it’s best symbolized by today’s culture no longer being one where, say, interracial marriage is deemed illegal (and, if I’m not mistaken, that entire controversy never was hotly debated in the public arena), but whether “GLBT,” including same-sex marriage, should be raised and saluted.

    Finally, the Great Depression has long been attributed to the failings of Republican Herbert Hoover. But almost no historian that I’m aware of has ever made the simple, plain observation that Hoover pretty much initiated the tax-and-spend policies — the garden-variety liberal approach — that FDR took to the next level. And yet Hoover got all the blame—and, in a way, rightly so, but not for the reasons that folks on the left would gladly crow about.

    Mark (5a66fe)

  34. In other equally unshocking news, the Mayor of Trenton, New Jersey has been arrested for accepting $119,000 in bribes. In their story about the arrest, the Dog Trainer ‘forgot’ to mention that the mayor is a Democrat. What are the odds that if the mayor was a Republican that “Republican Mayor” would be the first two words of the article?

    Icy (ae1d87)

  35. Okay, I feel better now. Thanks.

    Really, I fear a one-party GOP government almost as much as I fear the one-party rule of Pelosi/Reid/Obama.

    We will not be able to rest when they take over. The army of lobbyist locusts will descend upon them too, and we have to keep them honest.

    Patricia (e1d89d)

  36. 31. The ‘Undecideds’, however they are determined, amount to just 4 or 5% according to pollsters of all stripes.

    Look to them to ascertain what issues will count.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  37. “When a guy is making things worse and says he hasn’t had time to finish the job, maybe you don’t want him to finish the job.”

    The last thing we want is for him to finish the job.
    He needs to be told that his time in this job is finished.

    AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92)

  38. Rasmussen’s 3-day likely voter poll has dropped from +5 Obama to +3, which is what you’d expect from a Convention bump. Gallup’s 7-day registered voter poll moved a point toward Obama (+6). IF this is a short term bump, Gallup should start moving down by Thursday.

    The WaPo poll is encouraging, since it implies that even with a thumb on the scale Obama has serious problems. We’ll know more by the end of the week.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  39. Comment by Mark — 9/11/2012 @ 8:22 am

    I think you’ll find that accusation in “The Forgotten Man”, by Amity Shlaes.

    AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92)

  40. Icy, the media also forgot to mention that the mayor was a member of Bloomberg’s anti-gun group MAIG – a group that has a much higher rate of crime that gun owners.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  41. tadcf, another Democrat was caught in voter fraud. Not a Republican.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  42. If Urkel were to become a lame duck, one might wonder just how much damage he would wrought. I don’t mean Mooochelle emulating sHrillary either by looting the white house. How many Marc Richs could he pardon, executive orders be issued or vetoes of any legislation? Not too mention the army of lawyers he’s likely to unleash in battleground states to dispute the votes.

    Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8)

  43. The first pardon written will excuse any and all actions of Holder from prosecution.

    AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92)

  44. The polls generally are tilted up to about 8 points toward the Democrat. They may get a bit closer to the result right before the election as it is then easier for someone to say whether or not they will definitely vote.

    Rep leaning people are less likely to answer polls since about 1968.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  45. One poll in Massachusetts (granted, Romney’s home state) showed Obama with a mere 11 point lead – down from the 26 points by which he took the state in ’08. Another poll shows Connecticut within single digits, despite a similar 2008 blowout.

    Other state-by-state analyses show that Wisconsin and Michigan are swing states.

    I went to a Romney event in NH that filled a (small) baseball stadium to capacity. With a few day’s notice, on a Friday night, in a routine campaign stop, the crowd was on the order of magnitude of Obama’s DNC crowd.

    But we’re supposed to believe that $4.19/gallon gasoline, almost double-digit unemployment rates, trillion dollar deficits, and four years of comments about Republicans sitting in the back of the bus, etc., that Obama’s winning?

    bridget (862c19)

  46. Polls, in general, suck. If they don’t publish the breakdown of D/R/I and the questions, then they can be disregarded.

    JD (8f8df3)

  47. 45. Bunny Bane JEC has uncontrollable giggling fits by the time he drains his OJ in the AM 9/12.

    ‘Malaise, in your face MF, not your daddy.’

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  48. I am late to this post but I thought I’d repeat this pertinent comment initially made over at Neoneocon.com (in the thread “Whatsamatter Don’t You Like Rollercoaster Rides?” on 9/10/12 @9:41 pm).

    Begin Comment]
    (Apologies for the length.)

    Unemployment has been over 8% for 43 months and Obama is still sitting pretty? (KL Smith @3:47)

    I think Obama should only poll about 25% by now. (Neoneocon @ 4:02)

    What I can’t get is how any of the Democrats could have gotten any sort of a “bounce” from that ridiculous convention. (Kurt @4:57)

    What do these three observations have in common? They all assume that the polls are accurate and unbiased. Why so? Even the most accurate poll in the 2008 election (Rasmussen) wasn’t on target until right before the election.

    There is another facet to these polls and Rich Lowry notes it in the quote by MJR @ 5:47: “. . . it’s not just an ideological thumb they’re putting on the scale for [Obama], it’s a business interest.”

    Although Lowry mentions the pundits from area code 202 (the stronger the central govt, the more influential DC pundrity remains and the more money they make) this is also true of polling. Imagine if all the polls showed a runaway election with Romney winning, or a runaway election with Obama in the lead. If the outcome were already decided why would any campaign or news organization pay Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP or any pollster? These organizations make their living when the apparent results seesaw back and forth because you now have a reason to wait for and examine the next poll.

    Now I’m not suggesting fraud, although some of that may exist [the oversampling of Republicans by PPP regarding Todd Aikens comment], but does anyone doubt that these pollsters have a vested interest in close but constantly changing polls and if so, like the inherent liberal bias in the MSM, could such an inbred bias actually influence the poll results?

    How can one unconsciously (or surreptitiously) influence one’s own poll? Take PA for example. PA is predominently a Republican state except for the Southerastern quadrant around Phila (and to a lesser extent around Pittsburgh). Now the polls themselves show that ~9% of Republicans support Obama (assume that’s accurate for the sake of discussion). If an organization is polling overwhelmingly in the southeast, one is more likely to find Republicans and Independents in Dem territory who support Obama. If one is polling in the interior of the state, one is more likely to find Democrats and Independents who oppose Obama; New York state is similar to this although more overtly Democrat. We never see the geographic distribution of the poll, just the D/R/I distribution.

    Pollsters earn their “street cred” by being correct at election time, they earn their income by polling in the months leading up to the election.
    [End coment]

    T (b9f3b5)

  49. Look I can’t to speak to any accuracy of the polls, but I CAN speak to the very real possibility that those folks who like the idea of more government aren’t exactly put off by the woes of the economy and massive debt.

    I think it is folly for us, and especially for the Romney campaign to believe that the economy and Obama’s poor performance on the economy will be the major focus of this election. And I’m not the only one; Thomas Sowell agrees:

    http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/12/depending-on-dependency

    Romney has GOT to open up the campaign to other issues, namely how the guy fails to lead and puts his own ego first. And Romney needs to go on the talk show circuit and not repeat the mistakes of the Bob Dole campaign.

    School Marm (aac638)

  50. According to Ben Stein (at the American Spectator) what Romney should have said upon hearing the news of the attacks on the U.S> Embassy in Cairo and consulate in Benghazi, Libya, the subsequent U.S. apology issued in Cairo, and the refusal of President Obama to schedule a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    It would have been a little bit hasty. The casus belli was actually a movie and not an e-mail, and the U.S. official killed in Benghazi was none other than the U.S. Ambassador to Libya.

    It’s pretty obvious appeasement.

    I think that either the movie was not really needed as a excuse or a means to gin up the crowd, or….

    Florida pastor Terry Jones is a double agent.

    The thought has occurred to me the Islamicists can’t just wait for something to happen – they have to make it happen, and they’re using Terry Jones every time.

    Is he working for the enemies of the United States? Or maybe somebody he trusts?

    It just cannot be a coincidence they use him every time.

    This should not confused with thinking that whatever he produces really matters.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  51. Comment by T — 9/12/2012 @ 7:15 am

    Now I’m not suggesting [polling] fraud,

    It’s not necessary. the whole thing has become an art much more more than a science.

    There is a tremendous refusal rate in telephone polling.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  52. Hi, i feel that i saw you visited my blog so i came to go back the want?.I’m trying to to find issues to improve my web site!I assume its ok to use some of your concepts!!

    inverted table (b9abf4)

  53. Because it always bears repeating: the price of gas you’re pointing to was artificially low due to the financial meltdown. If we go back to July 2008, gas was well over four dollars.

    nedlum (92c1f6)


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