There are polls out showing a bounce for Obama. Allahpundit has some cautionary words about that:
Why not go full eeyore in honor of the occasion, then? Four reasons. One: O just took a roundhouse from that terrible, terrible jobs report. That’s bound to temper some of the new, Clinton-fueled enthusiasm for him. Two: Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s surveys are based for the most part on interviews conducted before O’s own widely panned speech last night. If the public was as underwhelmed by it as the commentariat, the bounce may well deflate early. Three: Gallup’s poll is of registered voters, which always skew Democratic. A 48/45 Obama lead among registereds is a de facto tie among likelies, which is precisely what Rasmussen’s finding. O’s back to even, not out to a lead. And four: Romney’s finally beginning his massive attack-ad offensive against Obama in eight key swing states today. When push comes to shove, it doesn’t much matter how O’s doing in the national daily trackers. It’s the swing-state polls that count.
. . . .
Update: A few readers have e-mailed to note that Gallup’s job approval number is based on a sample of adults, not registered voters. Right; it’s the head-to-head with Romney, where O now leads by three, that’s based on a sample of registereds. Apologies if that wasn’t clear. The point is, if we’re seeing his job approval rise among adults, that’ll probably have some similar but lesser effect among registereds and then a similar but still lesser effect among likelies. Not a huge bounce, but a little something.
Bottom line: Give it a few days and let’s see where we are.
P.S. Just idly wondering here: is Gallup the only polling company that the Obama Administration has attempted to intimidate?