Patterico's Pontifications

4/3/2012

Wisconsin, Maryland and DC primary thread

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 4:00 pm

[Posted by Karl]

Polls close in Maryland and DC at 8 ET; Wisconsin’s polls close an hour later.  Here’s your Google Map.  In Wisconsin and Maryland, some delegates are awarded by Congressional District, but on a winner-take-all basis, with another, at-large batch in each state awarded on a statewide winner-take-all basis.  DC looks to be a simple winner-take-all contest.  The party leaders look to be bound to the winner in WI and MD, but not in DC.  That small detail is a springboard for the statistical analysis from The New Yorker, which suggests Mitt Romney will end the campaign on June 26th with 1,122 delegates — 22 short of the magic 1,144 necessary to lock up the GOP nomination.  However, as Joshua T. Putnam, a political scientist at Davidson College in North Carolina (and the author of the Frontloading HQ blog), who helped with the analysis notes, there will be about 598 unbound delegates remaining at this point.  Odds that rick and Newt could lock up all but 21 of them?  Probably long odds indeed.

Update: Romney wins all three, although Santorum may get the delegates for four CDs in Wisconsin.

–Karl

20 Responses to “Wisconsin, Maryland and DC primary thread”

  1. There are Republicans in DC?

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  2. “Santorum is so far behind in delegates that he needs to significantly broaden his appeal to turn things around. But if he loses in Wisconsin and Maryland today, his time will have all but expired.”

    Yeah, I pretty much figured it was over after Illinois. At this point Santorum’s just wasting money.

    crosspatch (6adcc9)

  3. Yea… as a former DC resident, there were quite a few of us. Of course we felt outnumbered by the loud lobbyists, lawyers, and various skeez-oids…

    Book (3c420f)

  4. The WI polls have Romany up 7%, Walker down 5%.

    Obama is butchering Willard by 20%.

    I don’t believe them, but then I’m an incurable pollyanna.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  5. ‘the question is moot’ the game is fixed, although sometimes the raw charisma of Tpaw, overwhelms the contest.

    narciso (5b14a6)

  6. onward, through the fog.

    sickofrinos (44de53)

  7. Perry/Palin 2012: it’s our only hope.

    redc1c4 (403dff)

  8. Around here Mitteh will be a favorite baby name this Spring. At Legal Insurrection they lynching effigies of cracker.

    Weakest incumbent in history and we be up all night counting electoral votes. The 52% deserve abrogated pensions and no visits in the nursing home. Drop dead Granpa.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  9. We made our bed, it’s where we lie.

    They better run a good campaign.

    I truly believe there will be a real third party if they don’t.

    Noodles (3681c4)

  10. “Turn out the lights . . . The party’s over . . . “

    Dandy Don (6c3bce)

  11. So America needs Mittmentom, his v.p. choice will tell me where he stands. If it is a progressive like him, fork him, he is done.

    sickofrinos (44de53)

  12. There are only 3 delegates per Congressional District for the Republicans, so they could only split 2-1 or 1-1-1 in any case.

    Sammy Finkelman (324ec1)

  13. I lived and worked in WI counties of Waukesha, Washington and Milwaukee for 40 years, with family studding Romany-carried counties in SE quadrant.

    Ryan and WI GOP have got their machine oiled and humming. Bodes well for Walker in June.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  14. An open convention should get everyone fired up for a brawl. IF, and that is a big IF, the candidates can make this about the failure of the Obummer Administration then Republicans should win the White House with just about any nominee, and The Senate, and Keep the House. If they make the fight about each other, Obama will likely win.

    GM Roper (a0b04a)

  15. I saw the reference to a “statistical analysis from The New Yorker” and I stopped dead in my tracks. The New Yorker still is being published??

    Tsar Nicholas II (89a442)

  16. It is sad that so many of you can’t grow up. Romney is the Republican nominee. There will be no brokered or open convention or any of that. So if you really mean what you say that you want to defeat Obama, get over your disappointment and work to help that happen by knocking off the anti-Romney stuff and helping him win.

    bio mom (a1e126)

  17. Don’t hold your breath on that one, bio mom.

    Colonel Haiku (dc31a8)

  18. 17, 18. Better not peek at Prof. Jacobson’s tantrums. Holding one’s breath he ain’t.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  19. Doom-It’s whats for supper:

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/04/if-romney-loses-to-obama-it-will-be-because-of-his-supporters-not-his-opponents/

    A race to the bottom for the majors.

    gary gulrud (d88477)


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