[Posted by Karl]
The Pelican State votes today, but the polls do not close until 9 ET, which may limit the media impact (which is the main impact they would have). Here’s your Google Map. According to the rules, only 20 of 46 GOP delegates are selected tonight, proportionately with a 25% threshold (unlike many of the March contests, this is an overall contest, not by Congressional district). If the polls are accurate (a not-insignificant if), Santorum should win most delegates, but Romney will win a share as well. Nate Silver suggests it could be a 12-8 split, which would not be bad for Romney. Silver also contrasts this primary with the upcoming Wisconsin contest, which — taking place in April — has more aggressive, closer to winner-take-all delegate rules. A Romney win there would boost Romney’s odds of winning the nomination outright. Based on the contests to date, Romney can get by with only 25% of the South… so long as he does 33%+ in the Midwest.