Patterico's Pontifications

3/24/2012

The Louisiana primary

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 4:30 pm

[Posted by Karl]

The Pelican State votes today, but the polls do not close until 9 ET, which may limit the media impact (which is the main impact they would have).  Here’s your Google Map.  According to the rules, only 20 of 46 GOP delegates are selected tonight, proportionately with a 25% threshold (unlike many of the March contests, this is an overall contest, not by Congressional district).  If the polls are accurate (a not-insignificant if),  Santorum should win most delegates, but Romney will win a share as well.  Nate Silver suggests it could be a 12-8 split, which would not be bad for Romney.  Silver also contrasts this primary with the upcoming Wisconsin contest, which — taking place in April — has more aggressive, closer to winner-take-all delegate rules.  A Romney win there would boost Romney’s odds of winning the nomination outright.  Based on the contests to date, Romney can get by with only 25% of the South… so long as he does 33%+ in the Midwest.

–Karl

20 Responses to “The Louisiana primary”

  1. Karl – Is anybody voting? Are we going to be subjected to the low turnout, depressed electorate narrative once more?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  2. daleyrocks,

    Probably so.

    Karl (6f7ecd)

  3. Karl, why don’t you analyze the voting turnout after everything is over instead of wondering what we will be subjected to? Are you curious as to whether turnout will be low or high or normal?

    Jeremy Wolcott (cc46e9)

  4. Thoughts, prayers and get well soon, Dick Cheney!

    https://twitter.com/#!/jaketapper/statuses/183689174375858176

    Colonel Haiku (bd479c)

  5. Stacy McCain:

    “We have exit polls via Fox News and it looks like an easy double-digit win for Santorum. He beats Romney 54%-22% among evangelicals, 46%-30% among Tea Party supporters, 47%-30% among conservatives.”

    Doesn’t matter, Willard wasn’t supposed to win.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  6. Jacobson has CNN calling it for Santorum.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  7. Evangelicals were already voting in record numbers in the GOP primaries, even prior to today’s election:

    According to the Faith and Freedom Coalition, headed by longtime evangelical political activist Ralph Reed, evangelical Christians account for just over 50 percent of the turnout so far in the Republican primaries, the highest rate ever and a significant increase over the 44 percent evangelical voting rate in 2008.

    Moreover, Santorum has won a third of those votes, compared to Mitt Romney’s 29.74 percent and Newt Gingrich’s 29.65 percent.

    Faith and Freedom based its analysis on the entrance and exit polling data from 16 primaries and caucuses. The data show that some 4.29 million evangelical Christian voters have cast ballots so far — or 50.53 percent of the 8.49 million total votes cast.

    That’s a lot of evangelicals. The article also notes evangelical turnout isn’t only in the South.

    ABC reports there aren’t as many evangelicals in Louisiana as other Southern states, but I think there are a significant number of Catholics in Louisiana and some of them may favor Santorum.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  8. 7. I’d hazard that’s all ‘anti-antiChrist’ fervor.

    Certainly not identity politics.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  9. Maybe, gary gulrud. Evangelical voters are clearly motivated in the GOP primary. I hope they will be equally motivated in the general election to oppose Obama because of his decision on contraceptives, as well as his ObamaCare duplicity with Catholics on abortion.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  10. Jake Tapper:

    Jake Tapper ‏ @jaketapper

    ABC News projects that Rick Santorum will win the Louisiana primary.

    9:06 PM – 24 Mar 12 via Twitter for BlackBerry

    ABC must have made the projection based on exit polls.

    So Dick Cheney finally had the heart transplant. That’s not good news. They were trying to postpone that as much as possible. Now he’ll have to take anti-rejection drugs. Cheney has had heart trouble since 1978, when he was 37 years old.

    Jake Tapper is now at the DeMilitarized Zonein South Korea. The DMZ is also known as the world’s largest bird sanctuary. There’s a very bad place on the other side.

    Sammy Finkelman (ea9037)

  11. Again the Willard/Potatohead swing in Razzie’s polling about 10.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  12. 9. Not to push my own spin, but with turnout down all over(signal representative Mormon turnout decline in NV) might be Evangelicals are overrepresented.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  13. Not to push my own spin, but with turnout down all over

    Check your facts… that is not true.

    Colonel Haiku (0ee692)

  14. Jeremy,

    I don’t analyze the the turnout because primary turnout historically is not predictive of general election turnout. And I did analyze exit polls for some of the earlier races, but we’re not really learning anything new in the later exits.

    Karl (6f7ecd)

  15. gary gulrud,

    I’m not sure what your “spin” (position) is, but I’ve missed some of these discussions. Can you clarify it?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  16. 16. My spin, my polemic, is that the overwhelming majority of Indies perceive themselves disenfranchised in our two-party system.

    The most practicable remedy is to usurp the weaker of the two. The weapon of main resort is to vote against candidates that do not represent progress to this end.

    14. Consider the source. MI for example was barely above 2008 but 30% off of 2000. IL, while having no ticket on the Dimmi side was the lowest turnout in 70 years.

    At least I caution readers about my bias.

    gary gulrud (d6fd35)

  17. York on the road forward:

    http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/santorum-plans-block-romney-then-woo-delegate/448026

    Good for Santorum, but I hope another of several benefits.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  18. After last weeks Razzie WI poll showing Willard up by 13, remarkably reversing Santorum’s steady lead over a couple months of 17 today Marquette U has Romany up by 8.

    This would seem to mean Romany has a slight lead since Rasmussen has been off by 10 for a while between the two on election night.

    gary gulrud (d88477)


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