Patterico's Pontifications


Kansas caucus thread

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 1:07 pm

[Posted by Karl]

Mitt Romney romped in Guam and the Northern Marianas; the Virgin Islands also vote today.  But most of the attention is on Kansas caucuses.  Here’s your map and the rules.  As I write this, Santorum has an outright majority and the others may fail to hit the 20% threshold needed to get any delegates.

Update: Romney has edged above the 20% mark.  Fundraiser/consultant (and Newt fan) Nathan Wurtzel seems to think Romney will stay above the threshold.

Update 2: Looks like Santorum will get 33 delegates, Romney 7 delegates.  In 2008, Huckabee swept ’em, iirc.


34 Responses to “Kansas caucus thread”

  1. Ding!

    Karl (6f7ecd)

  2. what in God’s name is the matter with Kansas I ask you

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  3. Wait wait wait, Guam gets to have a say in the primary before the rest of the continental US? How the hell does Guam get to vote before Kansas? A lot of states don’t get to vote until may. I mean, Guam could capsize at any moment, and they get to vote before me.

    Man, that blows.

    Ghost (6f9de7)

  4. feets!

    Ask Thomas Frank. Or better yet, don’t.

    Karl (6f7ecd)

  5. Mr. Karl that was a very impressive outcome for Mr. Romney. With these 7 delegates in his pocket, Romney moves that much closer to victory, and Rick Santorum moves that much closer towards the stinging rebuke of fail.

    Congratulations Mr. Romney on your hard-fought victory clinching these exotic and prized Kansanian delegates.

    See you in the winner’s circle!

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  6. More children of the corn

    JD (318f81)

  7. Enjoy the victory, Mittens. March 20 is a long time between victories. Go Newt, you intra stellar fella.

    working class craftsman (44de53)

  8. Romney is not as close delegate wise as people say. He will lose most of those Florida and some of those Arizona delegates because they must be pro-rated rather than winner take all according to GOP rules.

    Romney pundits want to keep the narrative that Romney is a shoe in. I am sure the MSM prefers it also. So despite outspending Santorum 5 to 1, Romney is struggling to carry key states like Michigan and Ohio.

    Wayne (40ce91)

  9. Romney is having a hard time but that’s mostly just cause people don’t like him, but they like him better than Obama, and overall they seem to like him better than Santorum or Gingrich

    he’s like the fat Kardashian sister – he’s nobody’s first choice but he still has high name recognition and gobs of money

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  10. I would Romney is more like John Mc Cain.

    Wayne (40ce91)

  11. For a candidate to gain access to the KSGOP caucus ballot a Republican Presidential candidate must be registered as Republican Presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission, file a declaration of candidacy with the Kansas Republican Party, and pay a filing fee of $10,000 no later than 5p CST 13 January 2012. “Uncommitted” appears on the ballot. Write ins are not allowed.

    Well, that pretty much nails it that Rick Perry should have accepted that bet * He paid $10,000 just for the right to be in the Kansas caucus. It was surely a gamble that he’d still be in the running on March 10.

    * Provided, of course that there would be some honest way of determining the winner.

    Sammy Finkelman (63b67e)

  12. Whoever is the Republican nominee should use this chart every single day up to the election in November:

    Colonel Haiku (28008a)

  13. 8. Comment by Wayne — 3/10/2012 @ 4:15 pm

    Romney pundits want to keep the narrative that Romney is a shoe in.

    Shoo-in. And it’s “toe the line” not “tow the line.”

    The first comes from horseracing (what happens at the finish line) the second from track and field (what happens at the starting line – it’s what the racers do before before “on your mark”

    Neither has anything to do with shoes or with ropes.

    Sammy Finkelman (63b67e)

  14. The whole process this time around was that NO candidate could “close the deal” early. Florida lost 50% of their delegates already, as did Arizona as RNC “punishment”. Don’t hold your breath for them to do anything different with those remaining. Romney is leading in every conceivable category from number of votes, victories, or delegates. His “losses” have been by a matter of a few votes in Iowa and for the most part have been second place finishes. His ACTUAL home state gave him 72% of the vote.

    Gingrich and Santorum can’t mathmatically close the deal by August, nevermind now. I don’t hear anyone complaining that Santorum or Newt “can’t close the deal” because conservatives don’t like them or they’re not “charismatic”. Obviously many conservatives haven’t bought the argument that the “conservative” candidates are Santorum or Gingrich. Romney’s been consistently to the right of both of them since 2008.

    This “pipedream” of a brokered convention is ridiculous if you think the RNC is going to disenfranchise everyone that’s voted already, submit an unvetted candidate, or choose anybody but Romney who is beating Obama in the polls.

    Dave B (982f20)

  15. Kansas was one of Santo’s biggest delegate wins so far….yet he till fell behind in the delegate count today.

    Today, Santorum won Kansas. Romney won Wyoming, Guam, Virgin Islands, & Northern Marianis Islands.

    Romney grew his delegate lead. Romney now has 454 delegates to Santo’s 217.

    It’s not going well for Santorum.

    koam @wittier (88a9fd)

  16. Am I paying taxes for these islanders? What in hell are they voting for? We don’t need no stinking island welfare. Courtesy delegates for islands that bring very little to the party. Our system needs to be blown up. Oh wait, Romney will have success in destroying the republican party.
    Newt is the best choice, and besides he is no stinking lawyer. Lawyers in d.c. should be found under a big oak tree.

    sickofrinos (44de53)

  17. People on Guam pay their own taxes

    Icy (a5eb14)

  18. Romney took 39 delegates, Santorum 33 on Saturday.

    Colonel Haiku (a61ccf)

  19. 3. Comment by Ghost — 3/10/2012 @ 1:26 pm

    Wait wait wait, Guam gets to have a say in the primary before the rest of the continental US? How the hell does Guam get to vote before Kansas? A lot of states don’t get to vote until may. I mean, Guam could capsize at any moment, and they get to vote before me.

    Man, that blows.

    According to he New York Times, this is the way it worked in Guam:

    Mr. Romney, who had 431 delegates going into Saturday’s caucuses, more than all of his rivals combined, picked up an additional 9 in Guam on Saturday by a unanimous show of hands among all 215 people eligible to vote at the convention

    Further deponent sayeth not.

    It adds that he got 9 in the Northern Marianas, 7 from the Virgin Islands, and got 49% of the vote in the wyoming caucuses as of Saturday evening.

    In Kansas, it went:

    Santorum 51%
    Romney 21%
    Gingrich 14%
    Paul 13%

    Meaning Santorum won at least 32 out of the 40 delegates from Kansas.

    Santorum also wants the delegates in Florida and Arizona to be apportioned, as RNC rules say instead of being awarded all to Mitt Romney, as the state parties want to do, but that would probably only be possible if the convention upheld a credentials challenge.

    Sammy Finkelman (63b67e)

  20. Is Dave B paid to be such a shrill shill?

    JD (d246fe)

  21. The Greenpapers says:

    The nine delegates are all technically unpledged. There are 215 registered Republicans in Guam, and 207 (not all 215) showed up at the convention. Mitt Romney had sent his son Matt to Guam to round up delegates.

    These people obviously, could all switch, but they are not likely to, unless Romney’s support collapses. If Romney gets less than 20% in the California or Texas primary, for instance, and polls show him doing badly in the general election, too. They are soft pledged.

    Sammy Finkelman (63b67e)

  22. Don’t let the Jane Fondas silence you, Dave!

    Colonel Haiku (30a10b)

  23. I see that Drudge picked up on my analysis that it was Romney who won the day by growing his huge delegate lead on Saturday – on the day of Santo’s supposed big KS win, it was really Mitt who won overall.

    It was a little late for the Saturday news cycle but good, I guess, for the Sunday Shows.

    koam @wittier (2478cd)

  24. Dave B, I agree with you that Romney’s got this, but did you have to make your point so . . . jerkily? Even if one accepts the premise that Massachusetts is his ‘actual home state,’ what is so significant about winning big there? He did what he was supposed to do?

    BTW, Romney’s “losses” have all been real; and that includes Iowa. And unless his rivals run out of money he will continue to lose states while maintaining an overall lead in delegates. Not a slam dunk by any means for the candidate that has “been consistently to the right of” Gingrich and Santorum for the past 3 years & 3 months.

    Icy (a5eb14)

  25. Romney’s losses are 100% evangelical. All contiguous states in the evangelical belt.

    Those evangelicals prefer Santorum because he leads with conservative social issues. He’d lose badly in the general because of that.

    The evangelicals are not going to vote for Obama. They may not be mobilized in Nov for Romney so their turnout may not be outstanding…but they will still support him overwhelmingly. Most of their states are Red states. In the swing states they are a big factor in the GOP primary but not nearly as big in the general.

    If the mainstream blue collar voters aren’t satisfied with Obama, many will come out just to vote against him in November.

    koam @wittier (2478cd)

  26. 25. “Romney’s losses are 100% [in]evangelical [strongholds].

    Evangelicals are not particularly strong here in MN and the upper Mid-West, at least not in any sense understood by Evangelicals.

    I think you’re really seeing ‘honest’ Amerikkka, those that are and expect their neighbors to be honest are voting against McBain.

    On the three coasts people live with more corruption than the heartland. People don’t lock their doors and leave their keys in the car in the Rural flyover country.

    Guns just reduce crime on the South coast.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  27. listen up here y’all
    and you might be a Romneck
    if Jeff gives you call

    Colonel Haiku (1f8994)

  28. Dead heat in IL McBain 35, Potatohead 31, inside margin of error.

    Looks to be repeat of MI. Most corrupt county north of Mexican border edges remainder of state, per usual.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  29. Andy at Ace on Sino model love from McBain:

    OTOH the post-literate reassure us its all just an empty pander to the Right knuckledraggers. He doesn’t mean it.


    gary gulrud (d88477)

  30. Never forget what VanDer Leun said of the GOP, based on his experiences in the NorthWest, and subsequent; ‘they thirst for death’

    narciso (87e966)

  31. 28. Who is Potatohead, and why? Sounds like it has to be Santorum, but what’s the allusion, McBain I guess is Romney because I guess the idea is:


    Sammy Finkelman (63b67e)

  32. 31. “Potatohead”? Just an impression of Santorum, shape of the face, plumped cheeks, sweater vest, mein of perpetual concern.

    People are implanting virtues on this candidate only half-seriously, they hate lying sack McBain so thoroughly.

    Unity post nomination? Forget about it. Sanctimonious moralists on every side has blown unity out of the water.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  33. I find Santorum, excessively earnest, and maladroit, in most of these exchanges. Newt is much better at the dialogue, but the template seems to be to tune him out,

    narciso (87e966)

  34. *mien, BTW where’d Doh go?

    Gingrich is fine, but unloved, could he be the least objectionable resort in a contested convention? I’d be shocked, but reasonably satisfied.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

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