[Posted by Karl]
Polls close at 7 p.m. ET. Although Nate Silver claims there is still considerable uncertainty about the outcome, the most likely result is a win for Newt Gingrich. If so, as GOP fundraiser/consultant Nathan Wurtzel remarked on Twitter, a number of “rules” will be broken, e.g., that South Carolina is the “tiebreaker” between the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, or that South Carolina kills the insurgent candidate and lifts up the establishment one, pointing the race toward a swift and sure conclusion, and possibly the “rule” that the Palmetto State selects the eventual nominee. As Wurtzel later noted, historical trends must be discounted for the small sample size.
Tonight, the GOP may enter terra incognita. We live in interesting times. That may be a Chinese euphemism for a curse. Then again, iirc, it’s the Chinese who see crisis and opportunity as two sides of the same coin.
UPDATE BY PATTERICO: It appears Gingrich has, as expected, carried the day. An hour ago, the WSJ had Gingrich up 40% to 27%.