Patterico's Pontifications

1/21/2012

South Carolina: The Undiscovered Country; UPDATE: Gingrich Wins

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 3:01 pm

[Posted by Karl]

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.  Although Nate Silver claims there is still considerable uncertainty about the outcome, the most likely result is a win for Newt Gingrich.  If so, as GOP fundraiser/consultant Nathan Wurtzel remarked on Twitter, a number of “rules” will be broken, e.g., that South Carolina is the “tiebreaker” between the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, or that South Carolina kills the insurgent candidate and lifts up the establishment one, pointing the race toward a swift and sure conclusion, and possibly the “rule” that the Palmetto State selects the eventual nominee.  As Wurtzel later noted, historical trends must be discounted for the small sample size.

Tonight, the GOP may enter terra incognita.  We live in interesting times.  That may be a Chinese euphemism for a curse.  Then again, iirc, it’s the Chinese who see crisis and opportunity as two sides of the same coin.

–Karl

UPDATE BY PATTERICO: It appears Gingrich has, as expected, carried the day. An hour ago, the WSJ had Gingrich up 40% to 27%.

Chris Dodd intimidating lawmakers on SOPA, PIPA

Filed under: General — Karl @ 12:00 pm

[Posted by Karl]

Consumer group Public Knowledge makes the accusation about the former Senator-turned-MPAA head’s activities on behalf of the controversial anti-piracy bills:

“Those who count on quote ‘Hollywood’ for support need to understand that this industry is watching very carefully who’s going to stand up for them when their job is at stake. Don’t ask me to write a check for you when you think your job is at risk and then don’t pay any attention to me when my job is at stake,” Dodd said on Fox News on Thursday.

Hollywood moguls are also pulling out of Obama fundraisers over the issue.

In general (unlike many), I do not have a big issue with lobbyists; I have a problem with a government large enough to make them a virtual necessity.  However, after Dodd announced his retirement from the US Senate (rather than face a campaign centered on his involvement in the subprime mortgage crisis), he promised, “No lobbying, no lobbying,” as if there was something wrong with it.  He became head of the MPAA — the Hollywood lobby — weeks after retiring.   But openly issuing veiled threats on national television probably doesn’t count as “lobbying,” so this is really more about Dodd’s general sliminess and hypocrisy than a legal problem.

Now that widespread opposition from the tech sector and the public has forced Congress to table SOPA and PIPA, Dodd has regrets.  He regrets they didn’t ram these bills into law before the opposition grew, that the debate was focused on Hollywood and… that his own lobbying efforts were hampered by the law he backed.  Dodd previously voted for the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007, which among other things increased the “cooling off” period for Senators lobbying their former colleagues from one to two years. 

–Karl

Hamageddon!

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 5:00 am

[Posted by Karl]

Did you think it was all over but the vote counting in South Carolina?  That the cablenets would just be filling time with all that live coverage today?

Not quite.

Gingrich and Romney are both scheduled to hold 10:45 a.m. events [today] at Tommy’s Country Ham House in Greenville, to make a final push for victory in the surprisingly-competitive primary.

Could there be a more fitting climax to this saga?  The Man America Hates vs. The Man Bleeding Support — mano a mano at the Ham House!  To paraphrase Chuck “Cutman” Kimmel” “I’m not much on predictions, but I will say this: one of these fighters is gonna win this bout tonight, and the other will almost surely not.”

–Karl


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