My biggest blogging error in 2011
[Posted by Karl]
I think it is a healthy development that more bloggers are taking the slow news period at year’s end to audit their own work. It is a practice that ought to be adopted more by those in the establishment media who are actually paid for the opinions and predictions. Thus, it seemed only fair that I promote the trend by auditing my own 2011 blogging.
First, I will note the task of scanning an entire year’s worth of blogging — even my relatively modest output — helped show me why more people do not audit their work, quite aside from not wanting to revisit one’s own errors.
Second, my preexisting awareness of and annoyance with establishment punditry’s lack of self-awareness has meant that I am generally careful to couch my own analyses in terms of what is likely or probable. On the plus side, this means I rarely went out on a limb and embarrassed myself. On the minus side, it could be argued that not freely offering bold opinions is itself a blogging error. At the very least, it turns out that a list of my outright errors turns out to not be entertainingly embarrassing.
The vast majority of my minor errors tend to exhibit a common sin of political punditry — the straight-line projection from the current situation. For example, in “Destination Florida,” I think the basic point that the GOP nomination may be decided in the Sunshine State holds up, but in making that point, assuming that Bachmann would remain the frontrunner in Iowa, just as Rick Perry got into the race, was obviously a mistake several times over.
Speaking of Rick Perry, his candidacy is the focus of my biggest blogging error in 2011. Although I am not a supporter of any of the GOP candidates, my bias for a more conservative candidate than Mitt Romney caused me to discount the potential for gaffes to derail Perry’s campaign (perhaps because I thought Romney supporters were overstating that argument). Thus, “Why Rick Perry is the likely GOP nominee” still works as an academic exercise in political science, but I should have added the obvious caveat that the actual candidate matters above and beyond record and regional factors. I ultimately addressed the issue, but should have been on it much sooner.
I have considered the related issue of whether I was wrong about the impact of the GOP debates this year, but still believe the answer here is “yes and no.” Yes, insofar as Perry’s debate performances helped knock him out of the top spot, both because he insulted base voters in his defense of Gardasil vaccinations and in-state tutition for children of illegal immigrants, and in his seeming lack of debate preparation. Indeed, I may have underestimated the degree to which those stumbles reminded Perry of George W. Bush. Both consciously and subconsciously, GOP voters may have recoiled against a candidate who could help strengthen Obama’s near-inevitable attempts to blame Bush for his own failures and remind people how much they grew to disapprove of the prior GOP administration.
On the other hand, even upon further reflection, I believe it is fair to say that this was not a function of debates mattering per se, but largely a function of Perry’s splashy, late entry to the race. That late start meant the debates — and the media coverage of them — became the way most outside Texas formed their first real impressions of Perry (fairly or not). There is other circumstantial evidence for my point here. A look at Google search volume for Perry and the subsequent poll average (see the charts here) tends to suggest that people were losing interest in Perry even before he started debating. Perry’s rise may have been even more of a hype-driven bubble than even his critics believed. (Of course, lest I fall into the straight-line projection error again, I must add that if ever there was a cycle where someone like Perry could pull out of a campaign ditch, it would be this cycle.)
In sum, my biggest blogging error in 2011 was failing to recognize how easy it is to make the basic mistakes of punditry — straight-line projections and letting one’s personal preference color one’s analysis — even when consciously trying to avoid them. These are lessons establishment pundits could take to heart without auditing their work each year — but it helps.
–Karl
Ding!
Karl (5a613f) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:21 amPerry’s demise was aided by the pain medication he was forced to use after undergoing back surgery.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:27 amCol.,
Possibly, although the fact that Perry previously avoided debates suggests a general distaste for and possible lack of ability in the format.
Karl (5a613f) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:31 amI thought it was Perry too. Until… oh my goodness.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:36 am…also, note that Perry has a rep as someone who does not shy away from harsh attacks on his opponents. In TX, that worked because his targets were either Dems or more moderate Republicans. The Gardasil and TX Dream Act gaffes are a product of not being used to being criticized from the right.
Karl (5a613f) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:37 amHis immigration thinkings were never a bother to me. Romney shamelessly staked out the I hate mexicans more than you do ground.
But there’s very little proof that Romney will oppress brown people as much as he brags he will. But I have to admit his gestapo-looking sons look raring to go on it.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:41 am” the straight-line projection from the current situation.”
I think I’m trapped in a chaotic attractor.
gary gulrud (d88477) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:41 amfeets!
Thing is, Perry still has a generally good record to run on, and being from the South or West would ordinarily help. But the candidate matters, particularly in a process driven by retail politics in small states and the media obsessions of political junkies. Both of those things I understood in the abstract, but failed to fully apply them to Perry out of my underlying preference (or wish) for a stronger NotRomney candidate.
Karl (5a613f) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:41 amMr. Karl! For reals I thought Mr. Perry should’ve made more of the EPA’s war on Texas and tied it to the hyper-regulatory malaise America is mired in.
And his jobs story.
Together that’s a narrative for governance none of the other candidates can match, especially not Mr. let’s-force-everybody-to-buy-healthcares-at-the barrel-of-a-gun Romney.
But that’s not the road Perry chose. he chose the social con pander road. Which was dumb cause the social cons are dead set on splitting their vote into irrelevance.
They’re very strategic people.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:51 amHappy… to see what Perry-style immigration policy would hold in-store for America, one need look no further than California.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 9:57 amRomney is no better by the way on illegals.
Wow violating Godwins law Crappyfeet?
I hate illegals of all races.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:03 amNonsensical balderdash I say!
For Wall Street Romney to demagogue this issue so shamelessly betrays his misapprehension of the truly truly horrendous state of fail the American economy is in.
If silly silly squandery food stamp America is ever going to free herself of the debt spiral of debt in which its trapped, immigrants are going to have to be a HUGE part of that story. And Romney’s shameless anti-mexican demagoguings make that harder.
Whatever you want to call it, it’s not leadership.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:04 am
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:05 amitsshe’sand that should’ve been debt spiral of death I’m a go make coffee
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:07 amIn other words your trying to deflect from the fact you compared Romneys sons[By the way I’m no Romney fan] to a bunch of Jew hating marxist goose stepping pigs.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:09 amone of Romney’s lil goose-steppers really stepped in it to where they already had to apologize
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:11 amKarl, as a Texas Republican — from a rare multi-generation Texas GOP family, one that never liked Al Gore — I had watched Rick Perry’s career pretty closely for the last 20+ years, and I’d blogged about him quite a bit in the last ten.
Based on his performance in every previous race he’d run in Texas, including against some opponents who are quite sharp and accomplished themselvers, nobody predicted that Rick Perry would be as gaffe-prone on a national stage as he turned out to be. I thought I had a pretty good handle on his strengths and weaknesses, and while I’ve happily supported him in the past (including in the 2010 Texas GOP gubernatorial primary against the sitting senior U.S. Senator from Texas, Kay Bailey Hutchison), those weaknesses rose up to “seize the narrative” (if I may be forgiven for employing that leftie cliche) for his entire campaign.
Those who have long hated Perry — and that’s not a small club; he’s stepped on many a toe and his elbows are plenty sharp, and he has a long memory for friends and opponents — will say that they expected him to collapse all along. Maybe their perceptive powers are greater than ours, but I think that if they were candid with us and themselves, they’d admit that even they didn’t predict the rapidity or thoroughness with which he blew up his own “instant front-runner” status.
You’re right, then, in reminding yourself — and us all — that “the actual candidate matters.” But the “actual candidate” who showed up for the 2012 GOP presidential campaign wearing Rick Perry’s clothes and surrounded by his family and friends has performed very differently as a campaigner than the one who’d showed up for all those previous primary and general elections in Texas.
Beldar (bd62f3) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:11 amExcellent post, Karl, and I think I had a similar blindness.
I really like Perry, but more than that, I really like the idea of a conservative with a real conservative record, and a GOP that practically requires one to have this record (as a governor) so that other Republicans who crave more power at least try to go that route.
I also hoped the TEA party was transforming the party (And it obviously isn’t).
Talking to a lot of folks over the past few weeks, it’s clear to me that Perry just isn’t connecting with many people. That’s important for a politician, and my knowledge (And yeah, it’s a fact) that he’d be a better president than others doesn’t mean anything because I don’t think he can win.
I can (And will) complain about what this says about our country. I think some of the Romney fans have been hysterical about Perry and also deeply hypocritical and knowingly dishonest.
But that makes perfect sense, as there really is no argument FOR Romney. Tear down the other guys, and he’s the last one standing because he doesn’t stand for anything.
Newt is my guy at this point. The least bad option. I’m not passionate about it (how could I be?) but anyone but Romney.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:11 am____________________________________________
Romney shamelessly staked out the I hate mexicans more than you do ground.
You, happyfeet, truly are a “limousine liberal” when it comes to at least the social issues of same-sex marriage and illegal immigration. You support the idea of two guys or two women getting hitched to each another, but I notice you often using the word “gay” pejoratively.
And if you had kids (I’m assuming you don’t), and if you had to select the school they’d attend, the campus that was predominantly Latino compared with the one that was not would *likely* factor into your decision. But even if you truly wouldn’t respond that way, far too many folks who share you POV would act very much like this…
“Well, kids, be wary of pols like Perry, Romney or Gingrich, or the laws passed not long ago in Arizona, because they’re RACIST!! But we — daddy and mommy — have to admit to being unsure about Mexicans because we’re not sure you should attend classes full of them. But we’re still good progressives, so please overlook how we talk out of both sides of our mouths.”
[The parents then get into their car (for symbolic reasons, let’s say it’s a limousine) and drive away, happily waving bye-bye to all the people and places (or certainly schools) they’d rather not have their precious children spend too much time in.]
Mark (411533) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:12 amAnd I agree with Beldar. While Perry isn’t the perfect politician, he seemed to be an excellent politician for many years. He’s never lost a race and he campaigns hard and with discipline.
His performance as a national candidate is a stunning change. Those who claim they knew he would always be this way are probably just poor winners.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:14 amKeep it up with calling Romneys kids goose steppers honestly you deserve to be kicked in the nuts.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:22 amMark it’s deeply dehumanizing for Wall Street Romney to point at a Texas kid who’s a guest in our little country through no volition of his own – who speaks no meaningful amount of spanish – who is as American as me or you – and to say to that kid it’s wrong for you to go to college and if I were governor of Texas there’s no way no how a filthy illegal mexican like you would pollute our colleges.
That’s just NOT the way we treat people. It’s not who we are. Someone should hand Wall Street Romney the clue phone.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:24 amIf silly silly squandery food stamp America is ever going to free herself of the debt spiral of debt in which its trapped, immigrants are going to have to be a HUGE part of that story.
Immigrants (and controlled immigration) are important contributors to the USA. People who willfully don’t recognize the damage wrought by unfettered illegal immigration and find it convenient to poor-mouth those who stand against it are less than honest (e.g., happyfeet) or have an agenda (e.g., MECHA, MALDEF, etc.) that promotes the soft-conquest of Aztlan and expanding political power.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:27 amI recall Romney being asked about his kids serving their country, with reference to military service, and Romney explaining their service to the country was helping Romney win elections.
I do not think everyone should serve. There are many ways to contribute, with valor even. But what a repellent comparison.
I also know that one of Romney’s kids has financially gained from daddy’s political connections, asking donors to fund his investments, which is surely how Mitt got his start in business too (And why I largely write off his success, since the guys making the smart business calls continue to in Romney’s complete absence… he was just the political dynasty name to bring in cash from those seeking that kind of political connection).
It’s basically everything that is wrong with the GOP all rolled up in one convenient person.
It’s best to leave family out of it (not that Romney’s fanatics do, and not that Romney personally has… he’s an ugly mudslinger who will bash Newt’s wife’s shopping habit or even call a candidate dumb). But Romney’s kiddo is a politician himself (I guess every Romney has to be a politician).
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:28 amPropinquity…
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:31 amKarl, you must share wavelengths with Dan Neil at the WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204553904577102842167917740.html?mod=WSJ_Autos_LS_Autos_4
And remember those illegals Romney had doing his lawn care? They also did Mitt’s kid’s lawn card.
Weird.
And illegal.
These people do not respect our laws, but transform into die hards (for example on the TX dream act) if they see it as a political advantage. And Romney’s fans will ignore Romney signing into law free health care for illegals while pretending they find the TX Dream act to be a disqualifier.
That’s dishonest.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:31 amBeldar/Dustin
I do take some comfort in the fact that no one really foresaw how poorly Perry would perform on a national stage. However, given my general blogging bent toward political science and history, I still think I underestimated the value of experience running a national campaign, although I caught up to that point eventually.
Karl (5a613f) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:33 amHas there ever been a candidate that came out of the gate in a more rip-snorting fashion, only to fade in the stretch?
Rick Perry: stallion to gelding in less than 6 months.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:34 amWall Street Romney has done nothing whatsoever to advance a narrative the immigrants are important contributors to the USA.
He’s done quite the opposite.
Wall Street Romney’s gone out of his way to say that people what treat even the most productive and Americanized illegal immigrants as human beings in any way have no business seeking the presidency.
And that’s unhelpful.
Illegal immigrant engineers and technicians are just as useful in pulling America out of the muck as American ones… to say nothing of the plethora of useless food stampy trash America produces in abundance at home.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:42 amKarl,
The thing is, I don’t think Perry’s debate performance would have been particularly relevant if he had merely kept up with the others. But he’s the exception that proves the rule.
It takes Perry’s level of messing up in a debate for debates to become very relevant. Anyway, I appreciate you just frankly discussing this, which isn’t something readers get from most pundits who need a bit of recalibration here and there.
Perry has such a conservative record. It’s a shame our elections don’t come down to that sort of thing (in my opinion), but I think Newt could turn out to be a very good president (though there’s plenty of risk he won’t).
—
Romney really is the ultimate partisanship test. We’re taking a self professed progressive with a record to the left of the vast majority of democrat politicians, particularly democrat governors, and stamping him with an (R). Thus he’s now ‘conservative’ somehow.
Perry has a largely consistent conservative record, but Romney’s fans note he supporter a democrat!!!!! a quarter century ago so he’s now not really ‘conservative’. Not that there’s much reason to defend Perry at this point, but there’s an idea in there that we must stick to Team R no matter what, which I think is quite stupid and designed to exploit voters and screw this country.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:43 amImmigration…
On the Left, all Conservative hate outsiders, which is BS.
What we hate are ILLEGAL outsiders.
We sort of have this silly reverence for an odd concept called “The Rule of Law”,
where people avail themselves of the system, and stay within its’ boundaries –
you know, it’s that thing they tried to teach you in Pre-school:
Coloring within the lines.
When we find the lines offensive, we ask our elected representative to alter them to the changed conditions and mores the currently exist – if practicable.
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:44 amThat is how a Republic is supposed to work.
Think “The Double Nickel”.
Illegal immigrant engineers and technicians are just as useful in pulling America out of the muck as American ones… to say nothing of the plethora of useless food stampy trash America produces in abundance at home.
Sunlight may not be strong enough to disinfect that statement.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:44 am“..mores
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:45 amthethat currently…”Mr. AD the kids in questions are by and large naturalized – their parent brought them over. And guess what the for reals reality that is real is?
These kids are in our elementary schools and in our middle schools and in our high schools.
And Wall Street Romney feels it’s of high importance to say to these kids: there is NO future in America for worthless impure filth like you.
And that is not necessary. Build a wall. Build it high. Illegal immigrants are only here because America is too weak and too poor and too cowardly to defend her borders.
But that’s no excuse for Wall Street Romney to drag America into the fascist muck where we don’t even treat people like people.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:50 am*parents* I mean
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:51 amAnd now that the “illegal” immigrant has graduated college on the taxpayer’s dime… How are they supposed to move ahead and “repay society” since it is still illegal for them to work in the US.
I agree that the “kids” are effectively stateless now (non-functional, plus perhaps even undocumented, in the land they were born and not legal to work/vote/etc. in their current country)–But that has been the policy of politicians for a long time now (turning a blind eye to boarder enforcement and ambiguous laws concerning illegals.
-Bill
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:53 amSure are some nasty things being written today. There is a difference between free speech and using free speech to reveal a lack of class.
Simon Jester (28fb33) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:53 amWell said, AD.
I think the rule of law is important. I want immigrants, but I want them to follow the rules.
I disagree with the TX dream act, but I can accept it, because it benefits people who were brought here as kids. They didn’t break our laws… their parents did. All we’re doing is taking the money they paid (TX’s tax system is smarter than other places and if you live here, you’re probably paying your share) and letting them go to school. It’s a much better outcome than forcing these people into a life on welfare.
It’s the kind of solution that is imperfect because there is no perfect solution. The feds have to fix the larger problem, and won’t, so Texas had a heart. Perry handled this issue atrociously and stupidly, but a good explanation was available.
The rule of law is an issue Romney suffers with, knowingly employing illegals even a year after he was shown his lawn care company had no respect for the law, even rudely scoffing at documenting employees. Or offering free health care to people who actually did knowingly break our laws.
Finally, I think we need to fix our immigration laws to make it a lot easier for law abiding and productive people to come here. Also, I would love to eliminate those who are just sucking up welfare in its various strains… (the best way is to just stop paying welfare, food stamps, etc).
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:53 amThe problem is that the current campaign model, doesn’t serve the purpose, of actually showcasing
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:53 ama candidate, that would defeat Obama. This was the conclusion I gathered from the 2007-2008 effort. It seems in the intervening four years no lesson was learned,
For once I agree with you Colonel still not a fan of Romney.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:54 amAnd then I think: how would people react to similar nasty and unfair name calling toward posters who. Just. Can’t. Help. It.
That’s free speech, too. Right?
Simon Jester (28fb33) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:55 amAnd now Perry begins the groundwork of laying blame at the feet of others…
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/12/31/its-never-too-early-to-play-the-blame-game/
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:55 amHappy Feet, why do you keep trying to do drag Romney into your National Socialist dreams?
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:56 amAnd now that the “illegal” immigrant has graduated college on the taxpayer’s dime
texas law only says that the illegal kids have to pay what all the other kids in their high school class they graduated pay… it has nothing to do with especially subsidizing them
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:57 amJust some rude scoffing, Simon…
Cry him a river.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:59 amAnonymous sources, yes I’ll buy their story, we usually know they have an agenda to peddle, if they exist at all.
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:59 amIt’s regrettable, but Romney’s well funded campaign has had so many ugly attacks on his competitors that it has reduced the discussion. Just read Rubin’s endless BS. Just watch all of those Romney ads he pulled (they are still out there, and many are extremely negative).
When this negativity is naturally turned back around, yes, that inspires a lot of regret from classy people. But it’s also inevitable.
There never was an ideological argument for the candidate with no actual ideology (his own wife complains she doesn’t know if Mitt actually believes in what he’s arguing for), so it was bound to be a mud slinging contest.
Most of Romney’s supporters on this blog have stooped so far as to call people homosexual and liar and a hundred other trashy things. Respond, and the ensuing mess leads many to falsely equivocate because they don’t have the time to sort it out.
That’s the GOP today.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 10:59 amand he continues to lick his wounds…
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:01 amMay the best candidate with an actual chance of beating Obama win the nomination!
Save the tears and recriminations for later. Man up!
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:02 amHappy Feet, then you are not aware that, in California, that about 1/2 the state budget is paying for “education” (I think, by law, it is 48% right now)? You don’t think going to public school is on the taxpayer’s dime?
Let alone if they happen to get one of those government financed educational loans… The ones that are essentially indentured servitude (loaning $100,000+ to somebody with now financial education, no job, no financial history, and of questionable ability to pay back the loan in this job market)?
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:03 amAD (25),
Actually, a growing number are auditing their work. I was mostly thinking of Nate Silver, who was thinking of Weigel.
Karl (5a613f) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:04 amI think Romney learned the lesson. The primary is about being the last man standing, not about being the one anyone believes in. People will rule out those closest to them ideologically, if the attacks are done right, and then after the dust settles, we are left with someone obviously less acceptable.
Thus, Bob Dole, John Mccain, Mitt Romney (he hopes).
Oh, and democrat in the white house… that’s a fairly consistent feature of a more moderate GOP candidate.
It’s probably no use. The fanatics do not care. They are pretending we’re talking about free college, when really we’re treating people whose families paid sales and property tax (if renting, indirectly) just like normal citizens. They still have to pay for school. They are treated the same as a student from another US State who lived in Texas for a few years, actually.
The impact has been a minor number of very intelligent people who intend to become citizens also becoming net tax payers instead of welfare recipients. I disagree on principle, but of the reasons someone would come to the USA (such as being hired to mow Mitt Romney’s lawn) this probably isn’t something to get too animated about.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:06 amBut we’re talking taxpayers. The beneficiaries of the TX Dream act are taxpayers.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:06 amAnd it sounds like some are actually saying we should keep illegals out of public gradeschools and high school.
That would be counterproductive, to say the least. Their parents came here for jobs. The reason we provide education is because it’s good for society at large. Even those with no kids at all are getting something for all those property taxes they pay.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:09 am“It’s best to leave family out of it”
Dustin – It’s nice of you to add that right after you finished trashing Romney’s family.
Also I note you add the class warfare schtick you claim is not important, but you can’t help bringing up. You have not provided a scintilla of evidence that Romney’s family connections helped his career at BCG or Bain, yet you continue to advance the smear.
Both smears, leaving family out of it and the class warfare show something about your character and it’s not nice.
Keep going with the no reason to support Romney theme. It never gets old, day after day, after day.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:14 amKeep illegals out of the country, let alone public schools. Illegal immigration is a drain on limited resources and a continued influx – coupled with unceasing efforts to loosen voter registration – will virtually guarantee a liberal Democrat stranglehold on federal and state governments.
The politicians who aid and abet this destructive force need to be shown the door and kicked in the asses on their way out that door.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:16 amHow does it benefit anyone? The high school/college graduate still has no “papers” (work permits, residence status, or citizen ship).
The only time I ever had to prove my citizenship was during foreign travel and getting a job.
Believe it or not, I really am worried about the “children”.
We already went through one amnesty (Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986–And the problem is probably 5x worse now.
Becoming like prohibition or the war on drugs… More corruption and creating new criminal classes.
I don’t pretend to know what the answer is–The act of 1986 will strict enforcement thereafter should have been the “magic bullet”–But it failed (because of government). Applying another government solution is probably not going to work either–Unless government changes (i.e., enforcing the tens of thousands of pages of laws already on the book, or revoking the laws that are not being enforced).
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:16 amand to say to that kid it’s wrong for you to go to college
You know as well as I do that, if anything, someone as squishy as Romney not only wouldn’t say BS like that, but in the long run probably, and regrettably, will be far too permissive about decades of blatant illegal immigration. And those living outside this country know that, will continue to exploit that, and will be comfortable in assuming the US (and modern Western society in general) will remain a big pushover.
Illegal immigrant engineers and technicians
But you’re being disingenuous if you’re claiming that a large portion of the immigrant community, particularly if it involves the “undocumented,” falls into that category.
In my case, I will be honest to admit that my irritation about decades of unfettered illegal immigration is not just based on the huge number of people involved, or on how when I peer at a country like Mexico and become worried that more of what’s there (ie, generations of poverty, crime and corruption) may become more of what’s here, but because of the looming nature of this intractable dilemma:
Mark (31bbb6) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:16 am“It’s best to leave family out of it”
Dustin – It’s nice of you to add that right after you finished trashing Romney’s family.
~~~~~~~~~~~
It’s amusing that he thinks he’s clever, daley.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:17 amand Dustin talks of “slimeballs” and the dishonesty of others… lol.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:20 amBeldar – I think Karl’s description of Perry’s appearance as a “hype-driven bubble” is a good one. At the time people were looking for Palin or Christie announcements and Perry filled the void. From my perspective he was not well known nationally. He went negative early. Many of his claims were distorted or required convoluted calculations not normally associated with them to understand, raising suspicion about his overall truthfulness.
The ardor of his acolytes in defending him from legitimate criticism has been a complete turn off.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:21 amSo, Romney is in trouble for not discriminating but following the law? The one that holds the employer liable (or not) for hiring?
If Romney demanded to see every brown person’s papers he met–that would be a better how?
When renting in California, it is illegal for a landlord to ask immigration status or to deny their application based on such status.
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:24 amYes. I disagree with the policy anyway.
They are supposed to swear they are intending to become a citizen. That’s not really good enough, in my opinion.
Still, teaching a man to fish beats giving him fish over and over. And there’s always some douche ready to employ illegals like Mitt Romney repeatedly did, so I guess they can still get a job if they don’t become citizens.
I do think educating those paying taxes is a pretty dependable concept, though.
This is also a good argument for tax systems that are more difficult to escape. I think this is an argument against income tax, for example.
Exactly. Honest folks know this solution kinda sucks, but also don’t know of a solution that doesn’t kinda suck. Especially at the state level, since RINOs and democrats have conspired to prevent the federal government from doings its job, forcing the states into the position Texas is in, where we are going to have these kids one way or the other, and can choose to pay for some school or alternatively, some prison and/or welfare.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:25 am?
No, he was informed, with proof, that he had illegals working on his lawn. In fact, that proof showed Romney’s church friend (how the paper explained their relationship) scoffing at the law. Romney continued using these guys, even jokingly saying ‘buenos dias’ when he saw his lawn care crew. He knowingly employed illegals. Yes, via an intermediary, but there is no question Romney knew what was going on. In fact, his own excuse we can’t do this since I’m running for office ‘for pete’s sake’ is illuminating.
Romney showed zero respect for the law. In no way was he ‘following’ it. Knowing you have illegals working on your lawn is not following the law.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:28 amVictor Davis Hanson writes about the conditions brought about by unfettered illegal immigration. A very sobering read:
http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/286354/vandalized-valley-victor-davis-hanson&sa=U&ei=MGL_TsvZHarXiAKul9zCDg&ved=0CAYQFjAB&client=internal-uds-cse&usg=AFQjCNFHlwr_n2za7y5UWtPkTFIvAWbnxg
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:29 amThe refusal to assimilate, the rejection of the dominant culture and utter lawlessness are what these illegal immigrants have brought to California.
It goes well beyond “biting the hand that feeds”.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:33 amNot really the same thing as employing them, in my opinion.
Romney is supposedly a leader. He’s supposedly a very skilled manager. He was told, point blank, in some very effective news stories, and he was unable to manage this problem because he rather obviously didn’t respect the law.
The governor should have stopped employing illegals, used a different company, and verified. It was bad enough that he was caught once. That shows a lack of common sense (if you think he innocently erred with people who were not English speakers working lawn care). But to do so repeatedly? No, that’s just plain disrespect for the law.
Which fine… a lot of people don’t respect immigration laws. Romney is a bleeding heart liberal democrat in the wrong political party and I don’t expect him to handle the issue any differently than he did. But THEN he pretended to be a hardass on immigration. THAT’S why this issue came up. To point out Romney’s complete lack of seriousness on the issue he pretended to be a leader on.
No, Romney is not a leader on immigration enforcement. He can’t even keep them from working at his mansion after he was told about it for over a year.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:33 amthe kids in questions are by and large naturalized – their parent brought them over.
If their parents entered illegally, after the registration period for the ’86 Amnesty expired, then the parents, and by extension their children, are in the country illegally, and can’t be “naturalized” without IIRC returning to their country of origin and beginning the proper process, which would entail joining-up at the back of the existing line for legal immigration to El Norte.
Your grasp of this problem is underwhelming.
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:35 amLOL.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:36 amit has nothing to do with especially subsidizing them
Unlike the CA Dream Act which does subsidize their tuition, in all or part.
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:37 amNo? Renting to somebody (with background/credit/document checks/security deposits) is certainly a lot closer than using a business that employs “illegals”.
I am all for “teaching a man to fish”–But then make it illegal for them to fish is stupid (unless you are teaching them to break/ignore the laws on purpose.
Who knows, perhaps you will end up with 5 buses full of 250 High School and College age kids with over a pound of pot, alcohol, and probably other illegal substances in Elko Nevada–And the local Police Chief just gives then a stern talk. Because, you know, there is no way that he could hold 250 “children” for breaking the law.
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:48 am“Wall Street Romney has done nothing whatsoever to advance a narrative the immigrants are important contributors to the USA.”
Mr. Feets – Are you talking about illegal immigrants or legal immigrants cuz I don’t want to accuse you of that nasty progressive habit of confuzzling the two in conversation.
I do not think now is the time to ignore the rule of law and invite more illegal immigrant to come or stay in our beautiful socialist country to enjoy the fruits of our shores, potentially increasing our national debt and taking jobs from our lazy greasy azzed American workers so you may cancel my subscription to your newsletter at any time.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:49 amthat was a bad word choice yes
but the point is that lots of these kids are just as american as you and me
The fuhrer of the uber-white, Wall Street Romney, spits on them for political advantage.
It’s wrong.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:53 amMr. daley once you’ve jazzed up the nativist white trash element of Team R, the distinction between legal and illegal fades away to nothingness.
We see that time and again. This is why even as she declines into the economic gutter, America remains miserly with legal legal legal H1-B visas.
It’s cause of there’s still a pervasive sense, mostly on the right, and nurtured by bigots like Wall Street Romney and his ilk, that those people simply don’t belong here.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:59 am______________________________________________
since RINOs and democrats have conspired to prevent the federal government from doings its job
Beyond those two groups, and because money and one’s interest in nurturing personal comfortability can easily corrupt, there’s also a not-small number of prosperous people of generally solid rightwing orientation who, behind closed doors, don’t mind a very easy approach to illegal immigration. That’s because they employ and depend upon “human machinery” that is made up largely of immigrants—either here barely legally or here in a blatantly illegal way. The upper-echelon people I’m referring to reflect the views of the Wall Street Journal’s editorials on immigration, and, in essence, are like a variation of those involved in the slave trade of generations ago. So while they live fat and happily today, they’re leaving behind the remnants of what they’ve sewn for future generations to grapple with.
Combine those feeding off of “human machinery” with all the people on the left and those into political-correct “centrism,” and you end up with one big unholy mess, one big screwed-up trio. Call them “Enablers R Us.”
Mark (31bbb6) — 12/31/2011 @ 11:59 amAnd then there’s Romney’s nauseating choice of environmental adviser . . .
A Dec. 7, 2005 memo from the governor’s office announcing the new policy listed among the “environmental and policy experts” providing input to the policy one “John Holdren, professor of environmental policy at Harvard University.”
This is the same person who wrote that a “massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States.” . . .
Holdren has spoken in favor of such things as forced abortions, confiscation of babies, mass involuntary sterilization, bureaucratic regulation of family size, and a planetary regime to enforce climate regulation and population control.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (1936c6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:00 pm“While Perry isn’t the perfect politician, he seemed to be an excellent politician for many years. He’s never lost a race and he campaigns hard and with discipline.”
After hearing all the hype and seeing Perry become the instant front runner I was amazed to find out that Perry consistently polled in the low 40s approval in Texas. I figured normally when a governor runs for President people want to add a tagline like “popular Texas governor” or “popular Alaska governor” to introduction. With Perry you couldn’t do that. Polls also showed not even potentially winning the primary in his home state.
I kept wondering who advised him to run and whether it was purely ego driven and ill advised.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:03 pmthe distinction between legal and illegal fades away to nothingness.
with a mindset like this, little wonder the country is going down the tubes.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:03 pmMom always said Perry was useless as tits on a nun.
Had absolutely no use for the man.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:05 pmMr. Colonel, inept incompetent America has no border security policy. It has no immigration policy what’s grounded in strategy or thinkings. And it’s picking its nose wondering what to do with the illegals that are here.
America is going down the tubes because she’s at best a functionally retarded country anymore.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:07 pmSo, Romney, who actually let “illegal” immigrant workers actually “fish for a living” (do work that Americans won’t do) is a “NAZI”? Or are you just commenting that he and you know how to speak German.
I know he speaks French (to some degree)–You want to insult another language group by calling him a cheese eating surrender monkey too?
Boy, did you ever write for the Ron Paul newsletter?
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:08 pmHmm… I must have misted your Mormon slurs too.
Giving Progresses a “good name” one post at a time.
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:10 pmBusted. Yes I wrote for the Ron Paul newsletter for many years, taking ground-breaking positions advancing marriage for gay peoples and urging America to assimilate its illegal guest peoples, and well as penning many a column about the futility of the silly silly war on drugs.
Ron and I finally parted ways in the early 90s cause of he wouldn’t stop playing Mariah Carey cds in the office.
Mostly it was that you’ve got me feeling emotions deeper than I ever dreamed of song.
God bless America.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:13 pmUg, spelling and punctuation–Got to pay more attention:
Misted->Missed
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:13 pm*as* well as I mean
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:14 pmMormons are nice people Mr. BfC, generally speaking.
Plus they have very nice teeth.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:17 pmMy biggest error in 2011 was reading Patterico.com comments by Romney fanatics. In the past, I was willing to support Romney as the Republican nominee but I remained concerned that he would not be a reliable conservative. However, after weeks of reading his supporters’ mocking and insulting comments, I find myself unwilling to support Romney at all.
I’m going to stop reading the comments and hope that feeling goes away.
DRJ (a83b8b) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:18 pm__________________________________________
I was amazed to find out that Perry consistently polled in the low 40s approval in Texas
I recall glancing at an article awhile back that noted that bit of information, but wasn’t too sure what to make of it. I think because I’ve been so shell shocked by having a person with the disreputable qualities of Obama sitting in the Oval Office since 2008 — and too much of the electorate allowing that — that I’ve generally perceived public sentiment in general, even in Texas, as unreliable, confusing and contradictory. That’s even more the case since I read not long ago that at least a few Republican governors in generally red states are rating even lower in opinion surveys than President “Goddamn America.”
Mark (31bbb6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:20 pm” daleyrocks has a point.
BY EPWJ’s standards of evidence, Perry is a flaming homo. Probably listens to Lady Gaga and everything.
Why did Perry choose to make that public? By EPWJ standards.
Comment by Dustin — 9/19/2011 @ 10:53 pm”
The wound that will never heal.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:21 pmYes yes yes DRJ person I too wrassle with the odiousness of Wall Street Romney.
But I am resolved to support the Team R nominee, however inadequate they may be.
But I must say I find the prospect to be … demeaning.
Vote for Wall Street Romney? I’m better than this a wee small voice protests.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:22 pmIt probably will. I hardly read the comments here and while not thrilled with Romney, I am willing to live with him. I have a feeling, though, that reading annoying comments from his supporters could well put me off.
Romney supporters, if you’re putting off DRJ, you might want to re-think your approach.
Patterico (1c6e81) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:24 pm“Mr. daley once you’ve jazzed up the nativist white trash element of Team R, the distinction between legal and illegal fades away to nothingness.”
Mr. Feets – Only if you ignore the law, which is what you want to keep doing.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:24 pmAmerica inherently ignores the law by ineptly failing failing failing to muster up the courage to defend her borders.
Mostly America just like to whine.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:26 pmIt’s a darned shame that there is seemingly not a politician out there who is smart enough and brave enough to deal with and explain the immigration dealio honestly: Heap praise on the immigrants from around the world who have built and invigorate this country. Acknowledge that most American citizens alive today are from immigrant stock whether eight generations past or two. Burnish the pride of studying US history, learning civics, obeying laws, becoming proficient in the English language and standing in line to take the oath of citizenship because it truly means something.
The pol who figures out a way to articulate and glorify our long history of managed immigration and the attendant duties/obligations/privileges/blessings of citizenship while differentiating that from the resource drain of recent illegal immigration which has massively contributed to criminality, violence, along with health, education, and housing issues will resonate with voters and citizens both old and new. Law abiding taxpaying people do not appreciate being called heartless, racists or worse just because they happen to understand that massive unplanned uncontrolled illegal immigration has been a disaster for the United States over the past 30 years. The numbers of people who say in polls that the country is going in the wrong direction (among other things) have this firmly in mind.
Happyfeet, it’s not all about sweet Marisol and the “innocent wee ones” and everybody knows it. I think deep down you do too.
Oh, and having said all that, “may the best candidate with an actual chance of beating Obama win the nomination”.
elissa (75bd9b) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:30 pmRomney is way down on my list too–Not sure he will follow conservative values.
But I get tired of people with the “uber” this and “fascist” that slurs that only seem to get attached to Republican–Whom were not (in general) the ones supporting those policies in the US.
BfC (2ebea6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:31 pmit is a shame I agree
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:32 pmAnd isn’t it ironic that Hitler was considered a conservative when he was a socialist who used stalinist purges to kill off other rival socialists.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:34 pmhow is that ironic when Romney is a statist what embraces forcing people to participate in a market so heavily regulated it’s not functionally different than a government-owned and -operated enterprise
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:36 pm“Romney supporters, if you’re putting off DRJ, you might want to re-think your approach.”
Patterico – DRJ and I have had several discussions over the past month and I know she is not pleased with the tone of many of them. Some aspects of the conversations involved Romney and some involved Perry. I believe we both tried to support our positions with facts where appropriate over extended threads, but we were generally arguing different sides of issues when we are more accustomed to being on the same side.
I have no personal animus toward DRJ and hope she has none toward me. The temperature of my arguments may get raised by some of the completely unsupported BS like that you see being thrown around on this thread today.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:37 pm__________________________________________
I hardly read the comments here
I don’t know about you, but in my case I find myself often whipping through lots of postings in this forum not because of their content, but because this message board’s graphic format is unfriendly. I’ve yet to see any other forum anywhere on the Internet designed without the use of visual “handrails.” Whoever configured the HTML for this space should have his (or her, or their) eyes poked out.
Mark (31bbb6) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:39 pm“how is that ironic when Romney is a statist what embraces forcing people to participate in a market so heavily regulated it’s not functionally different than a government-owned and -operated enterprise”
Mr. Feets – Another misconception. Romneycare does not force you to buy insurance. You have a choice. You can pay a fine instead.
Ha – You believed all that nonsense about forcing you to buy something you did not want to buy, didn’t you?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:40 pmI have to pay a penalty to the Glorious Fatherland to exercise my free will?
That’s Wall Street Romney’s America!
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:41 pmI like how each comment is individually numbered plus it has the name of who made it attached.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:42 pmIt would seem a shame that a voter(s) can be swayed from individual principles of candidate support of by the rhetoric of others. Why give undue influence to the foolish? If one is supportive of a candidate’s platform upon which they are running, sees them as representative of some level of conservative values and can support them with a clear conscience, then why on earth would one give the mockers the power to influence a vote?
elissa, most sensible comment of the thread.
Dana (4eca6e) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:43 pmI’m trying to think of superlatives for your blogging, Karl, that really captures the full sense of how good you are and how your emphasis on details, background, history, trends is so valuable to season a story, a prediction, a post-event analysis- how you so often reveal the deeper structure within what appears to be the chaos of current events.
I think I foisted my intuitive declarations upon you a time or two (Bachmann, Cain, Perry) and if I happned to be on target about the three – I know I could never have formed any sensible opinion without your work and your more informed opinions. You are a top drawer, first rate fact whisperer and I think you need a prize
Sarahw (b0e533) — 12/31/2011 @ 12:44 pmDRJ… re: post #87… some folks have the same feeling about pro-Perry “fanatics” explicit animus toward other candidates, usually Romney.
Again, may the best candidate with an actual chance of beating Obama – whoever it ends up being – win the nomination! Much is at stake.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:04 pmHappy Feet, why do you keep trying to do drag Romney into your National Socialist dreams?
Comment by BfC — 12/31/2011 @ 10:56 am
— happyfeet’s National Socialist dreams revolve around a torture scene in which, roped & tied and bent over a chair, he pleads, “Thank you, mistress, may I have another?”; his torturer — wearing 6-inch spike-heeled leather hunting boots, black lace bustier/miniskirt and smart glasses — responds by drawing back her 3-line moosehide whip and, in a husky Canadian-tinged accent, responds, “YOU BETCHA!”
Whap!!!!
Icy (826c59) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:08 pmthat image will remain for a long, long, time.
Damn your eyes, Icy!
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:11 pmhe insulted base voters in his defense of Gardasil vaccinations and in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrants
For several weeks an issue that was on par with these two was Mr. Governor Perry’s administration of the state’s Emerging Technology Fund….
But the propaganda whore media decided to back off on that story when it was revealed that their preferred candidate Wall Street Romney had technology fund issues of his own.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:11 pmyou have to wonder though when you think on how screechy so much of the base were about Perry’s foibles (and Gingrich’s) how they’re liking their boy Romney
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:20 pmDamn your eyes, Icy!
“Too late!”
Icy (826c59) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:23 pm— Marty Feldman
Re: post #105… I don’t usually agree with you, SarahW, but certainly do about Karl. Every post of his is a must read in my house!
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:48 pmHappy feet, those screechy ones are still stuck on Santorum.
It took along time to sink In that Bachmann and Cain were done before they had begun, if it ever did. Perry was my big hope but my irrational fears about the sloping forehead / Bush reminding came true…nd then the other day all hope ended for good and all.
I’m in the Bill Whittle zone right now….
Sarahw (b0e533) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:48 pm“I have to pay a penalty to the Glorious Fatherland to exercise my free will?”
Mr. Feets – If you think about it, you probably already are.
The courts to health care providers they must treat people who show up on their doorsteps even if they could not pay, citizen, legal or illegal immigrant or not.
The cost of such uncompensated care has risen to very significant levels in many. many areas. The State of Texas runs a significant hospital system, which DRJ was kind to point out, which already taxes the people of Texas $1.9 billion for that uncompensated care, which is not nearly enough according to the State Comptroller of Accounts. In Massachusetts, the state was already levying a tax on people prior to Romneycare.
Maybe you can tell me what they do in California. I don’t know.
So now comes Romneycare. You want a policy and can afford it you buy one. If you want one and can’t afford it or qualify for Medicaid or Medicare, you get a subsidy.
You don’t want a policy and can afford a penalty, you pay a fine, or a tax, to exercise your free will, to help pay for the decision imposed on society by the courts, just like before Romneycare.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 1:56 pmRomneycare is not conservative you looly moron.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 2:23 pmPure gold from Newly Skeptical Newt::
“I’m an amateur paleontologist,” Gingrich said. “I spend a lot of time looking at the Earth’s temperature for a very long time. I’m a lot harder to convince than just looking at a computer model.”
If you don’t like Newt’s opinion on global warming, wait a minute.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (35eeb9) — 12/31/2011 @ 2:24 pmI don’t recall any insults about this. Link?
I believe he actually admitted he handled this wrong. If you found it insulted, adjust accordingly. This is, of course, about a zillion times less oppressive than Romneycare. It even had an EASY opt out.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 2:49 pmI agree.
Happyfeet has a good point, and I’ve learned to read his comments adjusting a bit as he tends to bash politicians on principle (can’t blame him). I note he never seems to bash other commenters. He only gives grief to politicians.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 2:52 pmYou know you just can’t make an universal healthcare omelette without breaking a few socialist eggs-Joker Romney.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 2:54 pmWell said.
I simply installed Milhouse’s little filter and am ignoring the three worst ones, and I think that will be a considerable help if, God forbid, I do have to vote Romney in the general (which I would). Romney is not the guy screeching that I’m gay or calling me a liar (and then admitting they meant I was making an ‘unconscious error’ in not supporting Romney yet, which is just plain douchey) and then laughing that I just don’t get their sense of humor. Romney would be an improvement in skill over Obama, but not a change of direction, generally, which I urgently want.
I appreciate Elissa’s comments (as usual). I think the best candidate who can beat Obama is probably Newt Gingrich.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 2:56 pmIn California, have a couple of hospital visits with family members. They appear to be charging $10,000 per hour for outpatient and emergency care.
Even tried to get a quote for out patient surgery and they refused saying it was too complicated. They had no problem billing $30-40k for less than 2 hours of surgery, including charges for pre and post op.
So over pay for insurance and fees. Or just walk away if you have not saved your money and post for your own insurance.
BfC (bf8e88) — 12/31/2011 @ 3:31 pm“I’m an amateur paleontologist,” Gingrich said.
— More like ‘amateurish’, as he should have said “paleoclimatologist”.
Then again, perhaps he sat on the couch with Pelosi in order to determine the origin of her species.
Icy (826c59) — 12/31/2011 @ 3:33 pmComment by happyfeet — 12/31/2011 @ 12:07 pm
Our basic immigration policy as codefied in the Immigration Act of 1965 was written by Ted Kennedy.
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 3:46 pmFigures.
Anything Ted Kennedy collaborated on is an absolute disaster and the opposite of reasonable.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 3:51 pmTed found that the Irish were charging him too much for work as groundskeepers in Hyannisport, so he opened the floodgates to Latin America.
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 3:56 pmCNN has confirmed that Perry will be skipping New Hampshire and heading to South Carolina after his candidacy is rejected by Iowa caucus voters.
Probably a smart move on his part.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:03 pmDr. Charles Krauthammer predicts a Romney-Rubio ticket in 2012. We’ll see.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:07 pmMcCain-Palin…Romney-Rubio…does anyone see a trend here?
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:12 pmSounds like someone doesn’t think America is very intelligent.
And Rubio? He has zero executive experience. Choosing someone based on their demographics is stupid. Though Newt is more likely to pick Rubio than Romney is. Romney’s VP would probably be Bachmann. That’s how bad the deja vu is.
After the first few primaries, it will be time for the big guns to start endorsing Newt.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:17 pmNot talking about Drew, obviously.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:17 pmGingrich-Palin in 2012… Perry-Gardiner in 2012!
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:17 pmDr. Krauthammer will be
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:21 pmsaddenedcrestfallen to hear he’s fallen from Dustin’s Pantheon of Big Thinkers.Palin/Gingrich I could vote for. Not the other way around.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (f5ff99) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:28 pmThough Newt is more likely to pick Rubio than Romney is.
Actually, Dustin, Newt acknowledged Palin as a possible running mate, and Rubio has publicly stated a number of times, if given a call for veep, he would decline. He says that he can get far more done being a Senator.
Gingrich [when asked if he would consider Palin as a running mate]: She is certainly one of the people you would look at. I am a great admirer of hers and she was a remarkable reform governor of Alaska, she’s somebody who I think brings a great deal to the possibility of helping in government and that would be one of the possibilities. There are also some very important Cabinet positions that she could fill very, very well. I can’t imagine anybody who would do a better job of driving us to an energy solution than Gov. Palin, for example. Tell her that she would certainly be on the list of one of the people we would consider
Of course, his desperation might be showing… likely pandering to the TP voters.
Dana (4eca6e) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:34 pmRomney\McDonnell
uncle sam (44de53) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:36 pmBob will continue to do the dirty work.
Yes, you’re right. And good for Rubio.
Palin was more qualified for the oval office than the other three guys on either ticker in 2008, but that is faint praise. Palin is one of the good guys, but she too probably would accomplish more in the Senate. Of course, this is up to her, and she seems content with being a pundit instead of putting her family through hell (no surprise).
Newt is a little tricky for me to support. Those who insist on supporting Perry even now are basically saying ‘I have to have at least some standards, dammit’ and I respect that.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:41 pmPalin-Gingrich…has a nice ring to it.
And, can you imagine Newt as President of the Senate.
There will be multiple cranial implosions in The Other Body if that happens.
For the historians, when was the last time an ex-Speaker became President of the Senate (if ever)?
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:41 pmI believe it’s never happened, AD.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 4:49 pmWell then…
Let’s Make Histooooorrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!
AD-RtR/OS! (652c93) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:03 pmRubio or Ryan would be excellent picks as VPs, as they are eloquent advocates for conservative principles. Any of the potential nominees would be blessed to have either of them.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:17 pmjust like Romeo and Juliet, AD…
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:17 pmActually look closer at James K. Polk, almost a dozen years before he became President. As for Santorum, he’s ok, despite what Ericson says, then
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:21 pmagain. I don’t much care for that weasel. Let it be noted that while Romney was trying to hide Masscare
under a bushel basket and Newt was flacking for Freddie and AGW, one prospective candidate was actually xhallenging the bogus EPA interior decision in Court, but that doesn’t really matter
does it, just like another candidate’s actual targeting of Chinese boomers.
Yeah, we could do a lot worse than Santorum, and we probably will, Narciso. Same for Perry.
That’s just how the GOP functions. The party practically just represents itself, not us.
Dustin (cb3719) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:26 pmHave a safe and Happy New Year, all! The wife and I are heading to Carmel for a few days of R and R.
Colonel Haiku (760682) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:27 pmHappy new year, rest assured you think of the most absurd thing, and they top it;
http://legalinsurrection.com/2011/12/saturday-night-card-game-i-give-up-colorblind-ideology-is-a-form-of-racism/
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 5:36 pmActually look closer at James K. Polk, almost a dozen years before he became President.
True, but he became President of the United States, not President of the United States Senate, which is what AD was talking about.
There are two almost POTUSes in the list of Speakers: Henry Clay and James G. Blaine, whose place in history is now mostly linked to the fact that his opponent(Grover Cleveland) came up with a very catchy slogan to use against him–“James G. Blaine, continental liar from the State of Maine”.
Happy New Year to everyone. And if the Mayan Apocalypse does come, try to have some fun with it! 🙂
JBS (827a72) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:23 pmKarl: common sin of political punditry — the straight-line projection from the current situation.
That is always wrong,, but it is especially wrong this year in Iowa, where a straight line projection lasts about 10-15 days.
A dynamic projection would be that Rick Santorum will come in first in the Iowa caucuses with about 22% of the vote.
The Des Moines register poll, released at &PM central time (8 PM eastern time, 5 PM Pacific time but several days old) has:
Romney 24%
Paul 22% – you can tell right away, it’s outdated
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 12%
Perry – 11%
Bachman – 7%
which adds to 91% and I think Huntsman has about 3% so I don’t know where the res of it is going (Don’t Know?)
However the results for the last tw days of polling show Santorum coming in second This is probably oistly a drop by Ron Paul, who should finish at around 10% – maybe a little more if his people turn out more.
The thing about Romney is, if he gets even 1/5 of Gingrich’s votes, he tends to gain in the lead.
ISantorum is second, and there are five more days or so to go from he last days of the poll, let’s take 5 from Bachman and Perry and put him at 20%. If the only thing that happened now was Paul losing 10 points, it would have to slit 7-3 Romney-Santorum for Paul Santorum to be in the lead. But it is liable to split more ways. On the other hand Romney should lose some too from that poll and go back down to 21% or 22%.
I don’t know. I think if Santorum gets to about 22% he will come in first.
Then comes the Sarah Palin/John McCain endorsement, which should boost him like the Ted Kennedy endorsement of Obama, although Sarah Palin might also decide to do nothing. Huntsman is somewhat stronger in New Hampshire, as is Romney.
Rmney shold really start dropping as the Virginia ballot situation becomes a big issue. I don’t think he can imagine how big an issue it can be. There are two debates – no more – in which it can be brought up. It can destroy Romney, if he doesn’t handle it well, and he probably won’t.
But he’s not on the ballot in many states.
Sammy Finkelman (b17872) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:25 pmUPDATE UPDATE UPDATE
There have actually been two men who have served as Speaker of the House and Vice President of the United States/President of Senate:
JBS (827a72) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:26 pmSchuyler Colfax and John Nance Garner.
Blaine who was really torpedoed by the good REverend Burchard, was the man behind the odious
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:27 pmanti Catholic Blaine amendments, was involved in
the infamous Credit Mobilier, and subsequently as Secretary of State, earned a pretty noxious reputation,
Comment by AD-RtR/OS! — 12/31/2011 @ 3:46 pm
Our basic immigration policy as codefied in the Immigration Act of 1965 was written by Ted Kennedy.
What he did is he placed a numerical quota – for the first time ever – on Western hemopshree immigration.
Sammy Finkelman (b17872) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:27 pmhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/if-i-were-campaigning-for-president/2011/12/30/gIQAP1oERP_story.html
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:30 pmRmney shold really start dropping as the Virginia ballot situation becomes a big issue. I don’t think he can imagine how big an issue it can be. There are two debates – no more – in which it can be brought up. It can destroy Romney, if he doesn’t handle it well, and he probably won’t.
How so? He’s not the one who ruled Gingrich and Perry not eligible (unless there is some manipulation or intrigue on the part of his campaign, of which so far we haven’t any evidence).
He only needs to make two points: that, since he and Ron Paul managed to do it, getting on the ballot is certainly possible if you organize properly, and that, whatever share of the blame does not go to the candidates who did not properly organize and prepare, it lies rather squarely with the legislature and GOP of Virginia, who came up with the rules and enforced them.
JBS (827a72) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:33 pmSometimes your naivete is amazing, you probably think all those folks were confused into voting
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:35 pmfor Buchanan, in 2000, as well.
Even tried to get a quote for out patient surgery and they refused saying it was too complicated. They had no problem billing $30-40k for less than 2 hours of surgery, including charges for pre and post op.
What we need is a system where – without asking – you get told the price by many providers (where it is in their interest to advertise a price, not where this is a question never asked and never answered)
Sammy Finkelman (b17872) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:36 pmNot quite sure what you mean there. Not even sure if it was me or Sammy you were addressing. However…
If your point is that Romney’s campaign had a hand in getting Perry and Gingrich thrown off the ballot, or that the local GOP manipulated things to his benefit–well, that’s entirely possible. It’s certainly plausible. But at the moment, I know of no actual evidence to support the idea.
JBS (827a72) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:43 pmcause we’re living in a world of fools what are breaking us down
when they all should let us be
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:54 pmBee gees, seriously pikachu;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezKJBE6ttyY
narciso (87e966) — 12/31/2011 @ 6:58 pmDaleymoron impugning others because they oppose Romney.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 12/31/2011 @ 7:37 pmIt is racist not to support Rick Perry for President.
Happy New Year!
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 7:40 pmHere’s hoping Dohbiden follows through on his resolution to complete the lobotomy in the New Year!
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 12/31/2011 @ 7:41 pmComment by elissa — 12/31/2011 @ 12:30 pm
It’s a darned shame that there is seemingly not a politician out there who is smart enough and brave enough to deal with and explain the immigration deal honestly: Heap praise on the immigrants from around the world who have built and invigorate this country…while differentiating that from the resource drain of recent illegal immigration which has massively contributed to criminality, violence, along with health, education, and housing issues will resonate with voters and citizens both old and new.
The reason nobody does that is that it doesn’t make sense: it’s a contradiction in terms or divorced from reality. If immigration is good then you can’t say illegal immigration is bad. If illegal immigration is bad, then legal immigration is also bad. Indeed those people who want to go after illegal immigrants also want to restrict legal immigration even more.
Do you want to say it’s different immigrants? Even if it is so, the actual distinction between what you find good and what you find bad is not between who is legal and who is illegal but between different types of immigrants.
A position praising legal immigration but opposing illegal immigration (and not wanting to solve it by making many illegal immigrants legal) is not only a contradiction it is also divorced from reality. There is not too much rhyme or reason in what Congress has made legal and not made legal. Therefore it is not possible to say that the typical legal immigrant is good and the typical illegal immigrant bad. It won’t stand up to critical examination.
Shall we say, well, immigration is much better when it is managed? There is an argument for that but it is not not an argument against amnesty and it is not an argument against immigration and certainly not an argument for having numbers in a law. Managed immigration means something that regulates the situation – for example maybe, a law saying almost nobody should move into South Central Los Angeles, or any county with a high murder rate, if they comefrom a foreign country. That would give Los Angeles the same fate as Detroit, but maybe it’s deserved. It is not argument for forbidding it altogether, rather you are trying to channel it and make people better prepared..
It is not argument against and amnesty not just today but for those will arrive tomorrow. With people who have been here for some time you no longer have to guess how it will turn out. So you can say, this worked out, so OK.
As for the idea of criminality, that is simply not true. You will find this to some degree among people who were brought here after birth but before the age of about 10 or 12 but very rarely among people who came at a higher age. And of course it is nothing like the concentration of criminality among an ethnic group that has been here since 1619, especially those with pure ancestry that way since 1865..
The problem is some people are assimilating into that kind of culture.
Whatever the economic effects, talking about them puts the wrong thing first. First you deal with the people then you figure out how you deal with health education and housing issues. I should point out that someone who attends only 8 grades of school in the U.S. obviously costs less to educate than someone who attends for twelve. You could be getting a high school graduate for less money. But whatever the government effects, the ecnomony benefits. Everything else is a fallacy.
One thing is true, the illegal immigrant is poor. If more immigration were allowed it wouldn’t be the case that the average immigrant was so poor.
But higher immigration for college graduates is being held hostage to a crackdown against illegal immigration to a degree which cannot and will not happen and/or a change in family reunification laws which will not be passed.
Law abiding taxpaying people do not appreciate being called heartless, racists or worse just because they happen to understand that massive unplanned uncontrolled illegal immigration has been a disaster for the United States over the past 30 years. The numbers of people who say in polls that the country is going in the wrong direction (among other things) have this firmly in mind.
Happyfeet, it’s not all about sweet Marisol and the “innocent wee ones” and everybody knows it. I think deep down you do too.
Oh, and having said all that, “may the best candidate with an actual chance of beating Obama win the nomination”.
Sammy Finkelman (b17872) — 1/1/2012 @ 4:12 pmSF: Romney should really start dropping as the Virginia ballot situation becomes a big issue. I don’t think he can imagine how big an issue it can be. There are two debates – no more – in which it can be brought up. It can destroy Romney, if he doesn’t handle it well, and he probably won’t.
Comment by JBS — 12/31/2011 @ 6:33 pm
How so? He’s not the one who ruled Gingrich and Perry not eligible
He’s justifying it. If Romney was just quietly trying to take advantage of it it would be OK, but to justify it will get him into a lot of trouble. And he has already justified it especially with that crack about a chocolate factory. Romney is going to be put on the spot. he’s going to have to call for a change in the law or not call fr it – most likely he will avoid it and then finally give in.
He’ll be very lucky if this doesn’t come up in the WMUR ABC debate on January 7 or the NBC Facebook debate on January 8.
(unless there is some manipulation or intrigue on the part of his campaign, of which so far we haven’t any evidence).
That’s indeed a possibility. Where did that person who collected some forged 1,500 signatures for Gingrich come from? He was supposed to be paid.
He only needs to make two points: that, since he and Ron Paul managed to do it, getting on the ballot is certainly possible if you organize properly,
Would Mitt Romney be willing to bet $10,000 that, if his petitions were examined the way Rick Perry’s and Newt Gingrich’s were, he would still qualify?
There was this 15,000 (as popposed to 10,000 needed) and 700 per county (as opposed to 400 needed) “safe harbor: but there is a good question as to whether anybody understood what that meant.
Anyway is he saying this should all be the private business of the candidates?
and that, whatever share of the blame does not go to the candidates who did not properly organize and prepare, it lies rather squarely with the legislature and GOP of Virginia, who came up with the rules and enforced them.
And does he want to change the rules now, or does he not? And what are his feelings about such rules? He won’t be able to escape.
Sammy Finkelman (b17872) — 1/1/2012 @ 4:29 pm“If immigration is good then you can’t say illegal immigration is bad. If illegal immigration is bad, then legal immigration is also bad.”
Sammy – Complete gobbledygook.
If we have a functioning system of legal immigration, the country can select the number of people to admit each year, the skill sets if any it is looking for, screen backgrounds, etc., etc.
In the case of illegal immigration, there is no control over any aspect of the process.
Case closed.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 1/1/2012 @ 4:47 pmLegal Immigration is not the same as Illegal Immigration you nativist knave.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 1/1/2012 @ 4:50 pmComment by daleyrocks — 1/1/2012 @ 4:47 pm
Sammy got his degree from DeVries in Gobbledygook!
AD-RtR/OS! (8798b0) — 1/1/2012 @ 5:13 pmhttp://legalinsurrection.com/2012/01/the-ethos-of-legal-insurrection-is-much-more-subtle/
narciso (87e966) — 1/1/2012 @ 5:18 pmSammy – A simple question.
Do you have a preference for knowing who is entering and leaving our country? Yes or no.
I can answer yes easily.
If you can as well, there is no reason not to oppose illegal immigration in favor of legal immigration.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 1/1/2012 @ 5:22 pmthere should be a sheet where you sign in and out
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 1/1/2012 @ 5:23 pmWhat thread count?
AD-RtR/OS! (8798b0) — 1/1/2012 @ 5:25 pmMr. Feets – There are, they’re kept at places called legal border crossings.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 1/1/2012 @ 5:46 pmThe reason nobody does that is that it doesn’t make sense: it’s a contradiction in terms or divorced from reality. If immigration is good then you can’t say illegal immigration is bad. If illegal immigration is bad, then legal immigration is also bad. Indeed those people who want to go after illegal immigrants also want to restrict legal immigration even more.
Pure unadulterated BS, Sammy. Does your head hurt when you type that kind of nonsense?
JD (a19d68) — 1/1/2012 @ 6:34 pmHow does one call themselves an enviromental crusader when they want to transform us into a 3rd world dystopian?
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 1/1/2012 @ 7:04 pmI don’t know about his, but mine is going ballistic.
AD-RtR/OS! (8798b0) — 1/1/2012 @ 7:09 pmI didn’t correct a lot of the errors I made – the threads end too fast. The worst was not getting a gemorah in Sanhedrin 45 right. I was only half viewing a translation on teh Internet and half remembering it.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 1/3/2012 @ 4:42 pm