Patterico's Pontifications

12/13/2011

Today’s other Iowa poll

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 5:27 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Commenters to my prior post about the PPP poll showing Ron Paul within a point of Newt Gingrich in Iowa pointed to the new Insider Advantage poll also released today:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to hold a strong lead in Iowa, according to a new poll released Tuesday. Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has moved into third place ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Gingrich leads the field with 27 percent support while Texas Rep. Ron Paul comes in second with 17 percent (up from 13 percent in an Insider Advantage poll released in late November). Perry has 13 percent, up from 7 percent in the November poll, and Romney has 12 percent.

What to make of two polls concurrently showing Gingrich +10 and Gingrich +1?  And Romney in third or Romney in fourth?  Not as much as you might think.  Both polls are of a little over 500 likely GOP caucus voters, with corresponding margins of error of 4% or more.  Looking at differences between the two polls, Insider has Gingrich +5 from the PPP number, Romney -4, Paul -4 and Perry +4 — so the two polls are broadly consistent.

At the NYT, Nate Silver has posted his first polling-based projection for Iowa, including these polls — and has the order as Gingrich, Paul, Romney, Perry.  FWIW, he finds Newt and Mitt losing momentum, while Paul has some, though not as much as his rivals have lost.   Even so, unless paul overtakes Newt, it’s bad news for Mitt.  Regarding that point, Silver notes that he stuck purely to polling; on Twitter, he noted that “If looking at subjective factors I might consider Paul almost a co-favorite.”

I don’t know if I buy Silver’s methodology just yet, but I am intrigued with this comment (at the NYT):

What’s a little different about these forecasts is that one of these factors — how recently the poll was conducted — really dominates everything else. We’ve analyzed literally thousands of primary and caucus polls dating to 1972, and what we’ve found is that you optimize forecast accuracy by being extremely aggressive about trying to identify the current trend. In the late stages of a primary or caucus race, a week is an eternity and even a couple of days can be meaningful.

Moreover, he has become convinced that momentum matters in primaries (but not in general election polling).

–Karl

34 Responses to “Today’s other Iowa poll”

  1. Ding!

    Karl (e39d6b)

  2. Remind me again when the IA GOP Caucus is, so I’ll know when the “real poll” is being conducted, one outside the margin of obfuscation by the question writer.

    AD-RtR/OS! (21429a)

  3. Romney has called himself a “progressive”. It shouldn’t be too surprising that he’s not going to be the GOP nominee.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  4. Amen! to that, Brother.

    AD-RtR/OS! (21429a)

  5. This blog has become so damn boring since Aaron Worthing left. At least he seemed to have a bit of a personality and didn’t just post on the same subject over and over and over again. I’m giving this place one more week, and then I’m finding something new.

    Enquiring Mind (5b303f)

  6. Who has the KY, the door knob needs an immediate application.

    AD-RtR/OS! (21429a)

  7. Well, that is one way of looking at the numbers, but RMS is really the way you combine error bars of equally weighted datasets.

    Given those two well separated sets, the likelihood is that Gingrich is up about 5.5% over Paul (+/-6%). Which could have Paul leading, but that’s not the way to bet. And I’m not sure how I weight the PPP data, since they have an interest in rat**cking the GOP.

    Kevin M (563f77)

  8. Rick Perry is now blaming his poor debate performances on his decision to undergo surgery in July instead of delaying it.

    “I shoulda had a bottle in front of me, instead I had a frontal lobotomy”, lamented the Texas governor.

    In other news…

    Colonel Haiku (601b7b)

  9. I admit I am not a fan of reality shows in general and even without a Kardashian involved this whole team R. debate/primary/poll drama is starting to feel like a really bad reality show to me.

    elissa (9d9d19)

  10. momentum matters in primaries (but not in general election polling).

    Which makes intuitive sense–part of the primary/nomination dynamic is not merely people trying to pick the candidate who they feel will do the best job in the White House, but also people trying to pick the candidate who has the best shot at winning in November–and in picking a winner, getting on the bandwagon of a guy who looks like he’s a winner plays more than a little part.
    Comment by AD-RtR/OS! — 12/13/2011 @ 5:34 pm.
    Amen, amen, amen.

    JBS (cc1ec4)

  11. Romney campaign in shock and dismay – national inside polls show support is very weak, perry gaining momentum in super tuesday states Newt campaign not getting funding having trouble hiring

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  12. This blog has become so damn boring since Aaron Worthing left. At least he seemed to have a bit of a personality and didn’t just post on the same subject over and over and over again. I’m giving this place one more week, and then I’m finding something new.

    Feel free to leave right now.

    Patterico (f724ca)

  13. Comment by Patterico — 12/13/2011 @ 7:10 pm

    See my #6!

    AD-RtR/OS! (21429a)

  14. That said, Aaron is having a lot of fun at his blog, and while I don’t want to lose readers here (Enquiring Mind aside), I’d love to have him gain readers there.

    Patterico (f724ca)

  15. Oh, I believe momentum is very important in these early primaries.

    What I don’t believe is IA caucus-goers sign up for a dozen surveys a week over the Holidays.

    Who are these people?

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  16. Romney is beating Obama in national polls despite the daily drubbing he gets from his own party during this primary season. This is the season (especially this one) when we get to vent, shove candidates to the right, chastise them for past sins against true conservatism, and flip the middle finger to the “Republican establishment”. I’m hoping this is reflected in the polls and statements by conservative pundits but I hope we consider who can actually beat an incumbent left wing president in a country that has devolved to the point there are almost as many “takers” as there are “producers” before we actually pull the lever.

    Dave B (982f20)

  17. When will Bloomberg say, “Okay, I’m going to run.”? The GOP is in BIG trouble.

    Anita Busch (a025dd)

  18. Uh you eon’t vote for them anyways.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  19. won’t*

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  20. Anita, Bloomberg is not a Republican. He has never been one, and he will never be one. And if he’s the GOP candidate I will not vote for him. Not that there is the slightest chance in the world of him ever getting the GOP nomination.

    Milhouse (ea66e3)

  21. 16.Oh, I believe momentum is very important in these early primaries.

    The GOP has plenty of ‘Moe’ these days. And a lot of Larrys, Curlys and Shemps as well. ‘Disorder In The Court’ aside, the big question at these debates remains open: ‘Who threw that pie?’

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  22. Pollsters are as much trying to move public opinion as journos at this point in the election.

    Honesty will be in abeyance until the last weeks before the general.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  23. IMP’s act is the same, every time.

    Anita – who do you deem to be an acceptable Republican?

    JD (8edcef)

  24. 26. I’m thinkin’ the GOP can either have Anita’s vote or they can have mine, but not both.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  25. Romney campaign in shock and dismay – national inside polls show support is very weak, perry gaining momentum in super tuesday states Newt campaign not getting funding having trouble hiring
    Comment by EricPWJohnson — 12/13/2011 @ 7:02 pm

    — Mister Meister, your spin has arrived.

    Icy (38a225)

  26. A) Bloomberg is NOT going to run
    B) The GOP is not in “big trouble”

    Why all this kvetching?

    Icy (38a225)

  27. The democraps have their moes larrys and curlys.

    Why don’t you leftys take a hollaback vacation er I mean holiday.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  28. From Monty’s daily Doom a link to Mish and chartfu:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/dollar-soars-vs-all-major-currencies.html

    Dollar will rise curtailing imports to about March when all hell breaks loose as Europe disintegrates. So all our paper is just kindling.

    We get recession Winter, Spring and Summer. All the empty tankers are filled with oil and parked in the Indian Ocean. Then inflation starts to roll by election time.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  29. The GOP has plenty of ‘Moe’ these days. And a lot of Larrys, Curlys and Shemps as well. ‘Disorder In The Court’ aside, the big question at these debates remains open: ‘Who threw that pie?’
    Comment by DCSCA — 12/13/2011 @ 11:08 pm

    — Oh good! Shemp is here.

    Icy (38a225)

  30. do you hack rocks in your head DCSCA?

    😀

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  31. have*

    😯

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  32. Comment by Anita Busch — 12/13/2011 @ 10:43 pm

    When will Bloomberg say, “Okay, I’m going to run.”? The GOP is in BIG trouble.

    I think Bloomberg might run if, say, Ron Paul gets the Republican nomination, and Barack Obama takes a policy turn Bloomberg finds totally unacceptable – AND polls show he could win.

    Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb)


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