Patterico's Pontifications

12/5/2011

Does organization matter in Iowa?

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 7:14 am



[Posted by Karl]

Contra Matthew Dowd, the answer is that political organization has mattered very much in the Iowa caucuses, even on the GOP side (where the rules are less arcane than those for Democrats).  However, the answer may be different this year.

First, Dowd on the “myth of organization”:

What is needed in the Iowa Republican Caucus is energized voters and momentum going into that day. If you have those things, an organization is not a real necessity.

For example, by nearly every account, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty had the best organization around going into the Ames Straw vote, but he didn’t have momentum or energy. So he finished third, and dropped out of the race the next day.

And let’s take a look back at history. In 2000, George W. Bush had the best organization in Iowa, tons of endorsements, spent gobs of money and led Steve Forbes in the polls by more than 20 points. If organization matters that much, then the one holding that hand should exceed their poll numbers at the caucus and those without staff and resources should underperform their poll numbers. Bush ended up beating Forbes by only 11 points. And Alan Keyes, who had zero organization, more than doubled his polling numbers going into Caucus night.

In 2008, Romney had spent the most money in Iowa and had an extensive and experienced political organization. He led nearly every poll going into the Caucus. He ended up equalling his polling numbers but lost the Caucus to Mike Huckabee, who had energy and momentum behind his candidacy, by nearly 10 points.

In 1996, the same was true of Pat Buchanan, who had very limited organization and staff, but who ended up nearly beating Bob Dole in the caucus because of his momentum and the energy of his voters.

Note Dowd’s questionable yardstick: outperforming pre-caucus polling.  He does not cite a single instance where a candidate with poor oganization won Iowa over a candidate with good organization.  Moreover, many of his examples are misleading.  In 2000, Forbes was well-organized.  Alan Keyes did well that year, but not as well as Pat Robertson did in 1988 by organizing the same basic bloc of religious conservatives.  Keyes 2000 came in third; Robertson 1988 came in second, beating a sitting Veep and losing only to the well-organized neighbor from Kansas, Bob Dole.

In 2008, Romney did not lead nearly every pre-caucus poll; Huckabee led the vast majority of them for a month before the vote.  Huckabee won in no small part by harnessing the “miniature political machine” of he homeschooling movement in Iowa.  The fact that homeschoolers don’t politically organize for money makes them no less an effective political organization (as many Iowans — and Michelle Bachmann — would tell Dowd).

However, this year, that movement is split.  Moreover, this year GOP candidates have minimally organized their Iowa campaigns — if  at all — fueling what is already one of the most unpredictable, nontraditional caucuses in recent history.  The prospect of candidates trying to throw together their ground games in a month may make Dowd correct this year, if only by accident.   Or it could turn into 1980, when Reagan failed to organize Iowa because he thought GHWBush would have the advantage; GHWBush’s ground game turned out to be not all that great, but enough to beat Reagan and perhaps alter history in the process.  In the land of the unorganized, the one-legged footsoldier may rule.

–Karl

227 Responses to “Does organization matter in Iowa?”

  1. Ding!

    Karl (e39d6b)

  2. Organization matters — caucuses are supposed to test that — but fervor may matter more. Ron Paul always does well is straw votes for this reason, and can be expected to do well in caucus states. Ronulans can be expected to trudge through the snow in bare feet if that’s what it takes.

    On the other end is a Romney. All he’s got is organization (and money).

    Kevin M (563f77)

  3. Yes it does.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  4. The answer-smells like a yes.

    Why?

    The guys with very little in funding or ground game-have all said yes to the Trump Circus.

    Mitt, and Perry are still waiting it out.

    The very fact that Gingrich is saying yes to about any and all televised events seems to be a signal that he isn’t doing very well in the more rational area of campaigning.

    Funds from sober donors, political endorsements-and both of those things have a more significant effect on his ground game.

    One more point, the two candidates that in the beginning everyone took the least seriously-Ron Paul and Gingrich are now ahead in the polls-perhaps precisely because no one took them seriously.

    It’s the Bizarro Primary.

    MItt Romney's Mother (89a442)

  5. We defeat the Ronuleans by holding multiple keggers that night-plus a boy band concert or two…

    MItt Romney's Mother (89a442)

  6. you should put you main ideas on index cards

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  7. Romney has been unable, at this early date, to seal-the-deal,
    as the “base” (Read: TEA Party/Main Street) does not trust the Olde Establishment – Country-Club – Rockefeller Republicans,
    to correct the course the ship-of-state is careening along;
    and, if nothing else, Romney is from the segment of the Party that “Main Street” has little use for.

    The establishment IMO is now extracting their pound of flesh from Newt for what he did to them in taking over the House in ’94 (Bob Michel, who had been Minority Leader and a poster-boy for the Go Along to Get Along philosophy that ruled the GOP on the Hill for fourty-years, was essentially pushed aside and forced into retirement going into that election).
    Now, the Poohbahs of the GOP (George Will, I’m talking about you) are taking this opportunity to deny Newt what he has wanted for a long time because he didn’t “play nice”.

    Personally, having this go all the way to the Convention without having a nominee would not be a bad thing,
    and could clarify in which direction the GOP will proceed,
    or if it can survive at all.

    AD-RtR/OS! (4308e6)

  8. The nutless Tom Coburn was crying like a little girl about Newt on Sunday.

    But did anyone ask for an establishment-whore Team R senator’s opinion?

    No. No they didn’t. Well, unless you count the whore-infested Fox News Channel.

    Now if you recall, Coburn endorsed Meghan’s coward daddy.

    So take the whiny okie whore with a grain of salt I think.

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  9. yeah all my index cards say “whore”

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  10. And all my index cards say: Ignore ‘feets!

    AD-RtR/OS! (4308e6)

  11. yeah all my index cards say “whore”
    Comment by happyfeet — 12/5/2011 @ 10:43 am

    — Yeah, we know.

    Icy (9fa38d)

  12. that’s not very nice to say either of you

    at least when I bring the word “whore” I bring enough for the whole class to share

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  13. You can’t get mad at someone for agreeing with you

    Icy (9fa38d)

  14. indeed Mr. Icy, and I’m not mad at all

    just disappointed

    but the other thing I want to say, if I may, is that people increasingly understand that Iowa Republicans are a lot what are dominated by a bunch of weirdos who are out of step with the rest of the party

    so I’m not sure Iowa matters so much in terms of who wins, but it’s a useful tool to get some of the gag candidates like Santorum out of the race

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  15. But we have a gag President, happy

    Kevin M (4eb9c8)

  16. Is ‘feets a sockpuppet for Tom Daschle or Harry Reid?
    They seem to have been “disappointed” quite a bit in their lives, and used that word to distraction.

    AD-RtR/OS! (4308e6)

  17. hah you got me!

    Yes I am Harry Reid.

    Gosh this has been fun.

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  18. “Iowa Republicans are a lot what are dominated by a bunch of weirdos who are out of step with the rest of the party”

    Mr. Feets – I’m not sure it is Iowa Republicans or you what are out of step.

    All I know is bacon is important in Iowa and bacon never goes out of style.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  19. they all have mike huckabee posters on their bedroom ceilings Mr. daley

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  20. that’s not normal

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  21. Dowd’s an idiot, a RINO whose career consists entirely of whining that the Republican party is drifting dangerously toward common sense and away from his lefty agenda. Every week he delights his handlers in the mainstream media by issuing a bunch of dire warnings about impending cataclysms that will soon befall conseratives if they stick by their principles, and of course the opposite always happens: We prosper by ignoring Dowd.

    Kevin Stafford (abdb87)

  22. Personally, having this go all the way to the Convention without having a nominee would not be a bad thing,
    and could clarify in which direction the GOP will proceed,
    or if it can survive at all.

    Comment by AD-RtR/OS! — 12/5/2011 @ 10:37 am

    Maybe you’re right.

    I don’t think this will happen, but there really does appear to be a huge problem. A lot of the people trusted with leadership seem to want a Michael Steele party or a Romneycare party, and yet the voters who did the trusting want something entirely different. Not that they want what I want… it appears that actual performance is only so important to the party. Newt is the only non-failure contender recently who has even a mixed record of success as a leader.

    I think Romney’s outburst in one of the debates (I’m running for office for Pete’s sake) and his inability to handle a tough interview with follow up questions shows that I was mistaken to fear he would divide and conquer the GOP. Romney can come across like a Clinton triangulator sometimes, but he’s not. He’s wavered in support of everything he’s ever supported, but this isn’t necessarily a sign of being too clever a politician like Bill Clinton. I think his thin skinned performance shows what the real issue is.

    So Perry’s not going to rebound… his performance appears to be only enough to win a state level election, and Cain’s gone, and Romney’s got feathers where his spine is supposed to be, so Newt is winning by process of elimination, much as Mccain did. Only I like Newt more than I ever liked Mccain.

    But I still think you’re touching on something very important. What is the GOP all about? Is the country better off with this party? As far as I’m concerned there is only one factor: will the GOP get spending under control, and the federal government reduced in relevance, or won’t it?

    Dustin (cb3719)

  23. Mr. Feets – The Children of the Corn move in mysterious ways.

    But you can eat bacon after Labor Day.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  24. I imagine the mix will change owing to fractious campaign organization in IA. Suspect it will hurt the so-cons most.

    That said one has to have something to sell before the customer can buy.

    I think we’ve dodged any chance of brokered convention.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  25. speaking of bacon here is a tuneful song from Ms. Skylar Gray about how hard it is to be a young lass in this world most cruel

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  26. *grey* sorry

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  27. Skylar = Breaking Bad reference = allusion to doing drugs = subtle insult to Ron Paul fans.

    /not really

    Dustin (cb3719)

  28. that’s on netflix now I’m a watch it maybe after I get Elena and Stefan safely through season 2

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  29. It’s probably the best thing on Netflix, Happyfeet. I’ve really enjoyed it, and that’s how I found it.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  30. Democrats supporting payroll tax cuts=ok.

    Republican supporting payroll tax cuts=evil republicans and proof they want to protect the wealthy.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  31. Dustin

    I think Perry has this one if Gingrich’s momentum stalls – what the pundits are not realiing after these forst few states – which all moved up early – created essentially a second complete race for the nmination as super Tuesday – is 9 weeks later

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  32. I think Perry has this one

    I like Perry the best, and think Texas is obviously a lot better at picking leaders than the nation generally is.

    But I think Perry has an asset (stellar record) that is of limited worth in national politics, and lacks something (slick silver tongue) that is supremely important.

    I think what I said to you on this blog years ago, that Perry is not the sort of politician who can expect to succeed outside Texas, was unfortunately correct.

    This second race you’re speaking of: why would Perry do better there than the first? He’s just going to say he wants to cut stuff that the baby boomers want increased. He’s just going to talk reducing dependence on government. No one will be fooled into thinking he will be trying to protect them from every problem in their lives.

    People are so dependent on government that they fear a government that isn’t run by a hyper aware promise of solutions to all things. Even ‘conservatives’ need to present this illusion of ubermenschen. A part time congress and a balanced budget amendment are crude solutions (That work if done right). Boomers need daddy to hold them with 1000 page technocratic answers. The pathetic generation.

    They want a leader they can put on a poster. I do not predict this is going to change until the boomers are gone and we’re left with the costs.

    Anyway, so long as the candidate hasn’t used the state to control economic choices like ‘will I force enough wealthy and healthy people to buy insurance that I can promise free insurance to voters?’ (which is nearly communism), the candidate passes my low bar. Such is the extent to which the GOP is a failure, that this is actually considered a high standard by some.

    These days, sophists will fight hard to prove there is no difference between Romney and a conservative, and in thirty years I think we’ll be able to move forward. It’s all a matter of the nation surviving that long, or perhaps some states going their separate ways peacefully.

    The notion of this country actually electing a man like Perry president seems naive, though I too was pretty naive. Social security a ponzi scheme? But so many voters are on the right side of the scheme, dummy!

    Dustin (cb3719)

  33. It’s going to go down in history books 1,000 years from now that the cleverest Ponzi scheme is the one where all the losers haven’t been born when you oblige them to it.

    A democrat idea that would have failed had Nixon and many other RINOs not seen the political advantages as outweighing their obligation to the future. Robbing your own grandkids… indecent

    Dustin (cb3719)

  34. I’m an Iowan who has been to every caucus since I was old enough to vote. I’ve met them all several times as the legend goes in Iowa. So has almost everyone who goes to caucus.

    We already know how to do it and how to get there and how to vote (process part). We don’t need the degree of organizing it took prior to Algor inventing the internet.

    The organization which is referred to relies on an out of date model that relies primarily on phone calls to landline phones (don’t use anymore) direct mail (keeping the post office alive) and endorsements from the elite who think we need to wait for them to tell us for whom to vote.

    We don’t.

    Organization is overrated and is used mostly to justify high salaries.

    Remember McCain’s implosion early on? Iowans did that.

    Remember Gingrich’s early implosion this time? Iowans did that.

    Spoiled rotten Karl Rovian bitches really. they keep using the same ole same ole and it doesn’t work anymore – thus, the split amongst all the old gangs of influence. We can figure it outfor ourselves now.

    [note: released from moderation. –Stashiu]

    Nancy Drew (ff1a59)

  35. Hillary Clinton compared Israel to Iran.

    Anyone surprised?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  36. did any of you pay attention to the video produced by the clinton folks which detailed the cheating Obama did during the caucuses? It was accurate. I saw it. The Dems and the Pubs often meet in the same location (schools). The Obama dems cheated openly. They shut the doors to keep people out. They flooded the place at the last second to create chaos (their standard M.O.) They just took over and intimidated the clinton people kind of like we see the OWS folks are behaving.

    The local OWS – Occupy Des Moines has put out a call to the world’s profesional protestors to descend on Iowa and try to Occupy the Caucuses. They had a training over the weekend on getting arrested. Nice.

    Should be fun.

    Nancy Drew (ff1a59)

  37. animal rights activsts protest new jersey’s bear hunts………honestly I hope one of the bears tears these animal rights douschebags to pieces.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  38. you don’t mean that

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  39. Palin don’t need no organization in Iowa.

    IOWANS FOR PALIN!

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  40. did any of you pay attention to the video produced by the clinton folks which detailed the cheating Obama did during the caucuses? I

    It was amazing.

    We’ll see what happens, but they will obviously have plenty of stunts to pull as the election gears up. They are inherently anti-democratic despite their Orwellian “we are the 99%” moniker.

    They aren’t to be underestimated. The Obama fans who plotted to bomb the GOP convention in Minnesota in 2008 were (cough… allegedly) linked to the burning of the Texas Governor’s mansion in June 2008.

    Their Jeep was seen taking surveillance of the GOP convention location, and then someone realized that same Jeep had been taking surveillance of the Governor’s mansion just days before the mansion burned.

    One of these people can even be placed in downtown Austin on the night of the fire.

    Here’s what two of these activists look like.

    They call themselves anarchists, just like the OWS liberals do, and I’m sure they are a sign of things to come.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  41. I don’t mean it but their own protesting will lead to that.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  42. “did any of you pay attention to the video produced by the clinton folks which detailed the cheating Obama did during the caucuses?”

    ND – Without that cheating in caucus states, I don’t think Obama would have gotten the nomination. He was trained in the Chicago thug political style.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  43. Nancy Drew,

    Who do you think most Iowans will support in the GOP primary and in the general election?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  44. dustin

    Perry’s success is actually – outside of Texas, I respectfully differ and offer this too you, the Texas fomula perry put in place was te same that the Republicans forced on Roosevelt in the late 30’s and early 40’s – reduction of non military spending, reduction of taxes and regulations

    Perry is creating positive investment environment for manufacturing which is receiving nationwide accolades from CEO’s

    Not just Texas accolades

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  45. the Texas fomula perry put in place was te same that the Republicans forced on Roosevelt in the late 30′s and early 40′s – reduction of non military spending, reduction of taxes and regulations

    I agree this is the best way to beat the democratic agenda.

    I think Perry’s plan is exactly right. It’s just that we don’t select leaders, as a country, in an optimal fashion. At least in my opinion.

    Without that cheating in caucus states, I don’t think Obama would have gotten the nomination.

    Yep. Democrats are, as usual, getting treated as badly as they allow themselves to be.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  46. Newt is badly lacking a plan … he needs to have something to focus on so he’s not all over the place

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  47. Oh really?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  48. So Perry’s not going to rebound… his performance appears to be only enough to win a state level election, and Cain’s gone, and Romney’s got feathers where his spine is supposed to be, so Newt is winning by process of elimination, much as Mccain did.

    LOL… baby steps re: Perry, who has limburger cheese where his brain should be. The guy who now says he never wanted to be president, asks for our support and vote in his next sentence…

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  49. All I know is bacon is important in Iowa and bacon never goes out of style.

    Comment by daleyrocks

    Damn straight!

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  50. The real question is why election after election, conservatives everywhere else in the country continue to permit the same small handful of states to have wildly, grotesquely disproportionate impacts on the selection of GOP presidential nominees. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and, yes, Florida should be put at the very back of the pack for presidential primaries for at least three decades; indeed, Iowa and New Hampshire shouldn’t have another early primary until we’re comfortably into the 22nd Century.

    The current nomination system is dreadfully broken and needs a radical re-design — radical in order to restore it to something rational, not a complete return to the days of nominations being brokered by party bosses in smoke-filled rooms at the convention, but something other than this charade we’re currently involved in.

    Beldar (65378a)

  51. It has gotten truly insane Beldar in 1980, there was famously one debate in Iowa, before the primary,
    by 1988, it had expanded to 8, the process is more frontloaded, and more cost prohibitive, can’t say
    we’ve gotten better candidates since then.

    narciso (87e966)

  52. So let me get this straight we criticize Obama because he is black even though he is bi-racial.

    But the left trotted out these white trash women to take down Herman Cain.

    How do these leftys live with themselves?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  53. Without meaning to pick on Iowans, what exactly would the process be to restore sanity and fairness to the larger nominating process as Beldar mentions? The caucus really seems to be a relic from another time, for instance, regardless of whether it is held early or late in the campaign season.

    elissa (2b76d3)

  54. You are correct about the bacon. Don’t forget our other contribution is butter..butter cow and fried butter at the state fair. Mmm..butta..yum

    With respect to the caucuses. The only thing I am sure of is that a huge majority of us are anti-romney. Pay attention to our discontent. We know Mitt and his mittens very well. We have rejected him.

    I rejected him because he won’t participate in the current discussion. If you won’t lead me now, why should I trust you will lead me later?

    I’m revisiting Newt because he’s boldly going where others fear to tread. We need some fearlessness right now.

    Current example is his willingness to debate anyone anywhere on any terms. Mitt runs away. I don’t care if he’s the biggest asshole in the world. Someone like that might deal with Iran instead of apologizing and resetting and bowing and all that crap.

    Don’t care about the marriages or affairs. Do. Not. Care. Do. Not. Care. OK?

    nancy drew (ff1a59)

  55. How do these leftys live with themselves?

    usually in small apartments that reek of beef n’ vegetable soup.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  56. Iowa is a relic from another time and they’ve seized upon this to elevate themselves to a level not commensurate with reality.

    It’s past time for them to get over themselves a little.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  57. Iowa is the state that Christopher Guest should have used for the backdrop of “Waiting For Guffman”.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  58. Iowa is the only state where we vote after seeing people up front, eyeball to eyeball. We see them slogging through, eating the rubber chicken, dealing with the public. We can tell a bit of their character. they have to walk in parades, they shake hands, kiss babies, go the rotary lunches, the breakfast clubs, the civic groups, the chambers, homes of normal people.

    Large states must rely more on spin, marketing, ads, commercials, and other impersonal ways. We have 3 million people. Seems like it could be considered a statistically valid sampling. If they can’t make it in Iowa, they can’t make it.

    It’s good for the parties and the candidates because they can do it on a shoestring. They don’t already have to be funded by special interest groups or mega millionaires, or self funded – like trump to get a fair hearing (huckabee, carter).

    We got rid of Howard Dean – the scream was in Des Moines.

    Trump wouldn’t be able to buy his win. Romney couldn’t buy his win – as much as he tried. It’s good. We are nice and generally honest people. We take it seriously. We graciously listen to them all and don’t write them off just because the Karl Rove bitches tell us they ain’t cool.

    nancy drew (ff1a59)

  59. haiku – you like this era so much better do you? Seems like old times might not be so bad. The 60’s generation have f’d up this whole world and I’m dang sick of it. Bring back disco ok? Life was better then.

    nancy drew (ff1a59)

  60. and don’t get me started on ivy league educations. talk about uneducated baffoons. I’d never ever hire anyone from the ivy league. Those geniuses destroyed the world economy. But, they are soooo cool and intellectual like.

    nancy drew (ff1a59)

  61. The real question is why election after election, conservatives everywhere else in the country continue to permit the same small handful of states to have wildly, grotesquely disproportionate impacts on the selection of GOP presidential nominees. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and, yes, Florida should be put at the very back of the pack for presidential primaries for at least three decades; indeed, Iowa and New Hampshire shouldn’t have another early primary until we’re comfortably into the 22nd Century.

    Hear, hear! Instead the party organization punishes anyone who dares to interfere with these jumped-up villages’ sacred right to lead the country around by the nose.

    Milhouse (f8511c)

  62. What William Goldman, admitted about film, seems to hold true for politics, no one really knows anything’ It was assumed that Romney would have
    a lock on NH, similarly Perry, was assumed to be
    the best challenger, because of his record, that turned out not to be so,

    narciso (87e966)

  63. Nancy Haiku loves Romney not disco.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  64. and don’t get me started on ivy league educations. talk about uneducated baffoons

    The word you were looking for is “buffoon”.

    buf*foon: 1: a ludicrous figure : clown. 2: a gross and usually ill-educated or stupid person;
    See: Bill O’Reilly… buf·foon·ish \-ˈ fü-nish\ adjective.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  65. Speaking of the “disco era”, word on the street is that doh biden employed a summer sausage, strategically placed in his polyester pants.

    But the damn thing always gravitated to the back of his pants.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  66. Where’s that video about Obama’s Iowa tactics?

    koam @wittier (3156c4)

  67. The fact that O’Reilly has a degree from the Kennedy school is incidental to how foolish he is.

    narciso (87e966)

  68. O’Reilly turned into SuperBuffoonMan roughly around the same time as his infamous luffa incident. I remember watching Laura Ingraham on his show asking him, “what happened to you?”.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  69. I employ a sausage dildo between my legs for when I get hungry.

    I didn’t know that Colonel.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  70. O’Reilly’s been a populist bully for a very long time, probably longer than he’s been on FOX; did you only recently discover it?

    Milhouse (ea66e3)

  71. Stick to Mormon-bashing, milhouse. It suits you well, it’s a good fit.

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  72. Stick to mormon-bashing[which means critcizing Romney.] It suits you well,it’s a good fit.

    Grow up you egotistical baby.

    Nice to know Palin calling out Big Oil is bad to O’sycophant but he can do it on his own crappy show.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  73. Narcisco

    Those are vanity degrees, you attend a few weekend power seminars write a paragraph ot to and get a fancy smansy enormously expensive parchment

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  74. Well what was I thinking;

    O’Reilly also earned a Master of Public Administration from Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. At Harvard, he was a student of Marvin Kalb.[28]

    narciso (87e966)

  75. But the left trotted out these white trash women to take down Herman Cain.

    Why on earth?

    Herman Cain has the greatest gift to the Democrats since Michele Bachman announced her candidacy. Now Hermans gone we’ve got Newt to kick around again. I assure you, the Democrats want the clown show to continue as long as possible and wouldn’t dream of knobbling any one of them. Not when y’all are doing such a bang up job of it yourselves.

    Spartacvs (86b677)

  76. The Moronic Convergence begins.

    Simon Jester (4c7374)

  77. Plus, I suspect you know alllllll about knobs.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that.

    Simon Jester (4c7374)

  78. It’s fine till they cross the streams, Simon, like I say, everything was inevitable until it wasn’t. Bachmann, Perry, Cain, all rose up, and then crashed to the ground,

    narciso (87e966)

  79. You write quite well for a 6th grader Simon, do your parents know you are up this late?

    [Bye now! — Ed.]

    Spartacvs (86b677)

  80. Good bye.

    Newt Gingrich is a dumbass.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  81. He is the reason why the GOP are accused of being like China.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  82. I employ a sausage dildo between my legs for when I get hungry.

    I didn’t know that Colonel.

    yeah you can’t make this stuff up

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  83. I’m going to try to pay a little more attention to the comments here. Obvious trolls will meet with a similar fate to that which just happened to Spartacvs.

    Patterico (f724ca)

  84. Aww, don’t kick my Sparticles off the playground!

    Icy (9fa38d)

  85. that Yelverton, the musical theorist, or is there another.

    narciso (87e966)

  86. I bet Yelverton is EricPWJohnson…………….oh wait he has his moments of lucidity so that can’t be true.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  87. That couldn’t be him, he didn’t have his obligatory piece of Sorosturf

    narciso (87e966)

  88. Who are all these people that are complaining about Romney supporting? Gingrich?!? Seriously what is the alternative at this point? I was for Gingrich briefly until I realized he’s even more of a chameleon than Romney and then there’s the “baggage” and the fact many people just don’t like him.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  89. Those who whine about income inequality support Michael Moore making more money than us because he is better than us.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  90. LOL… baby steps re: Perry, who has limburger cheese where his brain should be. The guy who now says he never wanted to be president, asks for our support and vote in his next sentence…

    Comment by Colonel Haiku — 12/5/2011 @ 4:31 pm

    Meh. If governing like Perry has were easy, more large states would have done it by now. Perry isn’t trying to be the ubermench solving all our problems. I can’t recall him ever trying to control economic choices like whether I must buy health insurance, so as to subsidize the ‘free’ healthcare offered to poor voters.

    I do understand the Romney fanatic’s particular hatred of Perry, even now when Perry’s not really a threat at all. Perry is everything Romney isn’t. Steadfast, wise, stoic self made success vs a corrupt silver spoon biting imbecile who sent his state towards bankruptcy with his harvard educated pen. Oh, but Romney spent six long years running for President, which to the Romney fan is not pathetic, but rather proves he’s ready for prime time. Perry has never done nothing productive for even six months, let alone six years.

    Oh, but the Romney fan is insistent that Romney is so brilliant due to his rehearsed answers, and anyone lacking that kind of phoniness has no brain at all. This doesn’t work when you ask Romney a good follow up question… why Romney’s head turns red as a tomato when that happens.

    BTW, I’m not seeing any immediately apparent reason to complain about ‘Mormon bashing’ in this thread. I see everyone rejecting Romney for much better reasons than bigotry against a good group of steadfast gun friendly and pro life people.

    BTW, supporting Romney mainly because the anti gun pro choicer is Mormon is just as bigoted as rejecting him because he’s Mormon, don’t you agree, Haiku?

    If Romney were a democrat Buddhist with the exact same background and record in office, would you really support him with this fervor? I would support Perry if he were a democrat Buddhist or a third party Zoroastrian.

    I know a tree by their fruit, and Perry produces what I like in government, and Romney produces nothing I like in government. Newt is a mixed bag, but I think he could be a great president.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  91. Who are all these people that are complaining about Romney supporting? Gingrich?!?

    I prefer Perry, but beggars can’t be choosy.

    And I disagree that Newt is worse than Romney. Like I said, you know a tree by its fruit. Newt wasn’t the only reason the 1994 GOP succeeded, but he was part of that. He’s imperfect, but there’s some sane reason he’s up there. It’s not 100% pizzazz and lies about his new-found conservatism just after he no longer needed to be a liberal.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  92. So 17 year olds can’t work after they graduate because the laws don’t allow it?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  93. Why not tell Donald Chump to go run as a democrap so they can be pegged as the party of millionaires and billionaires.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  94. So 17 year olds can’t work after they graduate because the laws don’t allow it?

    Comment by Dohbiden — 12/5/2011 @ 8:38 pm

    I’m sure they can mow you-know-who’s lawn and he’ll pretend not to notice years after he’s notified, and then laugh that he would want to honor the law at least when he’s running for office ‘for pete’s sake’.

    All this while aspiring to lead our country through very troubled times. An unserious demagogue flip flopping every time the polls feel a gentle breeze.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  95. Why not tell Donald Chump to go run as a democrap so they can be pegged as the party of millionaires and billionaires.

    Comment by Dohbiden — 12/5/2011 @ 8:39 pm

    I’m united with The Donald in his hatred of Obama, but little else. He is a big government guy, at the end of the day.

    There’s nothing wrong with being super rich, or being born super rich. There’s nothing particularly presidential or impressive about the latter, though… compared to serving in the military to pull one’s self up, it’s downright lame.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  96. Sub-tle, Dustin

    Icy (9fa38d)

  97. LOL

    Dustin (cb3719)

  98. But honestly, I’m neither that upset about the prospect of Romney or that defensive about Perry.

    Both seem to be toast to me.

    With Romney, it’s just the idea of using government that way, to control our free choices, that I want to argue against. And mainly that it’s not what I want the GOP to stand for any longer.

    Romney sucks, but at this point Ron Paul is beating him in the polls in some states. Maybe some candidates could overcome that, but everyone has seen Romney. No one can be convinced to support him by anything in Romney’s background.

    EPWJ is right to latch onto the idea of Newt falling on his ass… that truly is the only way things are going to change, and personally, I don’t think Newt is unaware of this or unable to avoid it.

    So Perry also is screwed, but fair and square, by his own failure in debates, and by the people’s free choice to consider that as more important than his record. I’ll send him another donation anyway.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  99. Did you hear that the catholic church wants 10 year olds to have children.

    /Sarcasm off

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  100. David notaman is so funny.

    Yeah questioning the right’s patriotism is so hilarious………..not.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  101. Rich people suck.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  102. Reuters seems to think Romney is hiding something:

    Romney’s spokesmen emphasize that he followed the law and precedent in deleting the emails, installing new computers in the governor’s office and buying up hard drives.

    However, Theresa Dolan, former director of administration for the governor’s office, told Reuters that Romney’s efforts to control or wipe out records from his governorship were unprecedented.

    Dolan said that in her 23 years as an aide to successive governors “no one had ever inquired about, or expressed the desire” to purchase their computer hard drives before Romney’s tenure.

    The cleanup of records by Romney’s staff before his term ended included spending $205,000 for a three-year lease on new computers for the governor’s office, according to official documents and state officials.

    In signing the lease, Romney aides broke an earlier three-year lease that provided the same number of computers for about half the cost – $108,000. Lease documents obtained by Reuters under the state’s freedom of information law indicate that the broken lease still had 18 months to run.

    As a result of the change in leases, the cost to the state for computers in the governor’s office was an additional $97,000.

    The ‘shredding’ was not just electronic:

    State officials and a longtime Romney adviser have acknowledged that before leaving office, Romney asked state archives officials for permission to destroy certain paper records. It is unclear whether his office notified anyone from the state before destroying electronic records.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  103. Now Gary, ‘whose being naive’ there’s no margin for transparency, haven’t we learned that by now, The most ethical person we can imagine, maybe too Jimmy
    Stewart for the world of politics, and it didn’t matter, in fact it was a hindrance, that probably
    kept her out of the ‘Great Game’

    dimitri mayakovsky (87e966)

  104. Detail from the PPP IA poll with:

    Gingrich 27%
    Paul 18%
    Romney 16%
    Bachmann 13%
    Perry 9%

    “One reason Gingrich is moving ahead of Romney in Iowa? 42% of voters say they would have major concerns about a candidate who supported an individual mandate for health care to just 34% who say they’d have major concerns about a candidate who cheated on his spouse. Romney’s health care plan is a bigger liability than Gingrich’s marriages. There’s also not much evidence that Gingrich’s immigration stance will prove to be an issue. Only 29% of caucus voters think illegal immigrants who have been in the country for 25 years and paid their taxes and obeyed the law should be deported, to 44% who think they should not be. Something may sink Newt’s campaign in the next month, but it’s not likely to be that issue.”

    Perry steady, Romney cratering.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  105. Stick to Mormon-bashing, milhouse. It suits you well, it’s a good fit.

    What the F$%K are you talking about? When have I ever bashed Mormons? Why would I want to do so? Is pointing out that they are polytheists “bashing”?

    Milhouse (ea66e3)

  106. 42% of voters say they would have major concerns about a candidate who supported an individual mandate for health care to just 34% who say they’d have major concerns about a candidate who cheated on his spouse. Romney’s health care plan is a bigger liability than Gingrich’s marriages.

    I don’t get that last sentence. It sounds as if there are people who would hold his marriages against him, when in fact it’s his breaking of (two of those) marriages that’s the problem. I don’t know why anyone would be upset at him for being married!

    Milhouse (ea66e3)

  107. Paul is leading among Democrats and Indies that are expected to caucus with Republicans.

    I predict the Plain Folk are underpolled and Bachmann, who’s the third candidate surging, will edge Paul for second.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  108. 107. Is pointing out that they are polytheists “bashing”?

    You’re a sly one.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  109. There’s nothing particularly presidential or impressive about the latter, though… compared to serving in the military to pull one’s self up, it’s downright lame.

    This man deserves your vote!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6_1Pw1xm9U

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  110. You’re a sly one.

    How so? I’m puzzled by Haiku’s accusation. Why would I be bashing Mormons? And why would I care whether a candidate was a Mormon or a Protestant or a Catholic or a Hindu?

    Milhouse (9a4c23)

  111. It’s an unproductive field of inquiry, beckoning back to the bloody 19th century, can we focus on
    the big picture;

    http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/report-un-tax-americans-green-climate-fund/237466

    narciso (87e966)

  112. And I disagree that Newt is worse than Romney. Like I said, you know a tree by its fruit.

    What is an issue on which Newt can be seen to be more reliably conservative than Romney? Sorry I just don’t see one.

    And Romney didn’t take at least $1.6 million from Freddie Mac for “consulting” and then implausibly claim he advised them to stop doing what they were doing.

    I figure whatever he polls currently against Obama overstates how well he’d do in the general because there are probably a number of women who aren’t aware of the infidelity etc. but will be by next election day.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  113. Don’t be an ass, Milhouse, your use of polytheism to describe Mormon doctrine is meant as a pejorative. The LDS are no more polytheists than other Christians who believe in the Trinity.

    WTF are you even bringing the subject of religion up for?

    Colonel Haiku (fd5ca4)

  114. Is it ignorance or malice, does it really matter anymore;

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/5/federal-rewrite-of-labor-laws-causing-a-flap-down-/

    narciso (87e966)

  115. The LDS are no more polytheists than other Christians who believe in the Trinity.

    Christians believe in one God in three persons. One way of saying it is if you asked God “WHAT are you?” He would say “God”. If you asked WHO are you He would say “Father, Son and Holy Spirit”.

    There’s a good deal of evidence for the Trinity in the the Old Testament.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  116. I should add that Mormons DON’T believe in the Trinity. They also believe God was once a man and lives on a planet somewhere.

    Anyway back to politics.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  117. Milhouse, I tried to respond to Haiku’s accusations… I was also shocked when he started doing it (he called me a liar and I asked him what in the world he was referring to… he replied he would tell me in a day, then after a day he laughed and said I didn’t understand his sense of humor, and when pressed admitted he just didn’t want to give Perry favorable credit for something I claimed he did… but I wasn’t lying at all to say Perry did it).

    Here’s what’s going on: you’re being invited to roll around in the mud with a pig. At the end, you will both be covered in mud, and the pig will be delighted. Many who don’t bother to read the entire exchange will equivocate because you’re both fighting (and perhaps they would be largely justified).

    We see Haiku crying about Mormon bashing with a ludicrous standard where he’s reading 100% of it into your comment, basically saying if you even mention Mormonism, you must be a bigot. But when Haiku actually espouses the nature of nastiness he’s pretending you show, he laughs that he’s just joking. The clown nose is tossed on for those comments, and then ripped off for the anger and crying that is only occasionally sane.

    Just look at how he responded to my saying I am more impressed with someone being self made via the GI Bill than someone being born a millionaire. He dismisses this with that old liberal canard that soldiers are morons with a Gomer Pyle reference. This isn’t the first time he’s used that meme. It’s ugly and it’s a real form of bigotry I’ve noticed from Haiku.

    And he’s even bashed Methodists as I defend Mormons because his hypersensitive ear reads my defense as a passive aggressive attack (in all honesty, I would support Perry and reject Romney if their faiths were reversed and think their faiths are not relevant pro or con).

    Haiku: Perry’s military service is a good and impressive thing, and even those who don’t support him should be capable of admitting that. This kind of argument brings discredit even to you. But I know, clown nose on, right? Ha Ha Ha.

    What is an issue on which Newt can be seen to be more reliably conservative than Romney? Sorry I just don’t see one.

    Every issue. Romney? Are you serious? Romney is reliably liberal in practice. He left a 1.3 billion dollar deficit and then papered it over with lies. He had myriad tax increased that he papered over by calling the ‘closing the loop hole’ or ‘fee’. He had enormous spending increases… Romneycare alone cost twenty times more than the deficit Romney inherited. Romney has screamed that he will allow jobs to be forfeited for environmental hysterics. He’s pushed cap and tax. He’s pushed global warming. He’s promised never to waver in support of abortion. Granted, as soon as he realized he was running for the GOP nomination, he flipped on many issues, but in practice, this guy is 0% conservative. Zero. Nothing. He is a technocrat with government solutions to all our problems. You can look at Romney and see that he would be more competent than Obama at using government to solve problems. He really should be running as a democrat with his record.

    Is Newt 100% conservative? Hell no. He’s been wrong on many issues. But his flip flops are not so shameless to my eye (how could they be?), and Newt has borne some limited government fruit. I never thought Newt was THE leader of the 1994 movement, but he was part of it.

    Do I think Newt is the best guy running? No. Will I vote for him in the primary? Only if I think it’s needed to stop Romney, the liberal who will obviously flip again just as surely as Arlen Specter or Lindsey Graham. The nanosecond Romney is nominated, he will move left. Then again, he’s not going to be nominated. Ron Paul is doing better in some states. No one voting is unfamiliar with Romney, so he’s never going to overcome his liberal record.

    The man who forced people to buy health insurance even if they didn’t want to is not conservative enough for me, to put it very mildly.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  118. It’s ironic in light of their support for Occupy;

    http://rt.com/news/moscow-troops-protest-election-139/

    dimitri mayakovsky (87e966)

  119. Gerald, I didn’t meant to be evasive and should have offered a specific issue.

    I think Newt would be more reliable on spending, which is issue #1.

    His stupid comment about Ryan’s plan (as stupid as Perry’s stupid comment about heartlessness) was actually justified if you read into it. I support Ryan’s plan, but it is not perfect. Newt arrogantly handled the issue instead of praising the good in it (indeed, the bravery of it) while offering some constructive criticism.

    But Newt is largely pretty good on spending. He also understands the issues. He didn’t just memorize 1000 answers. He won’t freak out if you throw him a curveball follow up like Romney does (or my favored guy Perry does). He’s probably be pleased, actually.

    There is a risk that Newt will stray. A strong risk. But he is capable of being a great president, and I think at worst would be a good one. I also think contrasted with Obama, he would come across as ready for serious leadership. Romney looks smart if you only get moments to analyze him, but that veneer is so thin, and no one would miss this if he were the nominee. I actually think Perry is the opposite. If you only get a momentary glance at Perry, he makes a poor impression, and the more you learn about how hard he’s fought to cut spending and institute tort reform and stand up against liberal government and secure the border, or the more you understand how Perry’s solutions are actually things that Perry has seen work very well in practice, he comes across better.

    But that doesn’t seem to be working.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  120. Did I mention OWS whackos earlier?

    That IRS building in Austin that whiny communist Joseph Stack crashed his plane into, killing Vernon Hunter is very close to being completely fixed. It’s taken a long time, but that scar on my drive through Austin is healing and I thought I’d let y’all know.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  121. Dustin

    Ryan’s plan was a joke, it was so polarizing that it had zero point zero chance of passing and including breathtaking surges in taxes an realistically cut very little spending

    It was at best a fraud at worst a naked grab to be speaker or a senator

    Ryan didnt mean well, people who mean well dont put in divisive political capital evaporating plans meant more for publicity than for public policy

    Lets get off the Cain Fantasy Train and Ryan’s Express and get back to the task of:

    Lowering Taxes and regulations

    Slowly reducing spending

    Repealing Obamacare and means testing all entitlements

    Losing one of the houses or the preidency forever by suggesting draconian plans with hidden America ending tax acceleration in later years is a recipe for suicide

    Remember – Ryans a democrat – he ran as a republican only because he cant afford the taxes

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    EricPWJohnson (8a4ca7)

  122. Comment by Beldar — 12/5/2011 @ 5:11 pm

    The real question is why election after election, conservatives everywhere else in the country continue to permit the same small handful of states to have wildly, grotesquely disproportionate impacts on the selection of GOP presidential nominees.

    It’s not just “conservative” or Republicans, to be more exact. The Democratic Party has the same thing.

    Why? The first reason is that the states set the dates of the primaries.

    The Republican Party tends to abide by state laws – the Democratic Party, ever since 1972, when Jesse Jackson challenged the elected Mayor Daley delegates – not on political grounds, but on racial quota grounds, which had the effect of changing the Presidential candidate they were for [!] and they were seated, and it went into court even though it was sort of moot, and then the Supreme Court upheld that on the grounds that a party convention was a private, non-government matter and a political party could do whatever they wanted, the Democrat Party as not considered itself bound by state law. This has especially mattered with regard to winner-take all states. The Democratic always disregarded it – the Republican Party considered itself was bound by that.

    In 2008 McCain won several winner-take-all for the Republican states, like New York, and that won him the nomination. This year the Romney forces wanted less of that because they thought Romney’s biggest chance of losing was some candidate winning a few winner-take all states. they figured the non-Romney vote would be divided, and the way the politicians have been doing this since about 1972 is they don’t combine delegates for different candidates. One effect of that also is to make the first the first 20% or less of the delegates selected the most important.

    Now with states leapfrogging over each other, the key primaris moved earlier. (The only thing that stopped the selection of delegates from moving into the previous year was a rule, passed by the Democratic Party after 1968, that delegates could not be selected before January 1, which I guess still holds)

    The New Hampshire Primary, which was the first primary in the nation, used to be in early March – on Town meeting Day – I think the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. It’s been going on since 1952. At that time, most delegates were selected in caucuses but primaries were used by candidates to argue support. Kind of like the straw polls this year. The New Hampshire primary is now in January. We also have had the Iowa caucuses since 1972 – originally I think only by the Democrats. The Democrats collect the totals of delegates for the next level by candidate – and 15% is needed to select a delegate – the Republicans take a non-binding straw poll with no changing of votes to reach 15%

    In 1988, the important primaries were still held in early March. By 2008 important primaries collected on February 5. The Illinois primary, which used to be held at the same time they held their regular primaries which was always in early march – way too early for Congress and the state legislature, unless you are a political machine candidate, was moved up to Feb 5 to help Barack Obama. Local state parties would move primaries ahead and back depending on whether or not they wanted the state to influence the presidential race or whether they preferred that not happen, and if it didn’t happen, all the big people in the party could become delegates to the convention by running as delegates for the sure winner. Actually since after 1980 the Democratic Party has had “super-delegates” – people who are delegate by virtue of their political or party office or the votes they collected in previous elections. The republicans also I think can fill in the names of actual delegates somewhat later than the primaries. Caucus states pick actual delegates pretty late.

    The parties last time tried to punish states that held early selection of delegates. The states that already had started selected delegates were grandfathered in.

    In the last go-round, the political parties attempted to punish early voting states. The Democratic Party went the most far. It denied delegate to any state that selected delegates too early. Michigan and Florida defied them. This could not actually be carried out. They were too afraid they would lose the state in the general election. Hillary Clinton, honoring the party’s request, did not campaign in Florida and Michigan, Barack Obama did. Of course there was national spillover and the campaigns disagreed as to how to count the delegates and in the end when it didn’t matter delegates were assigned I forgot how.

    The Republican party cut the number of delegates in half. That threat or promise was kept in 2008

    But still this year, when the cutoff date for losing delegates was February, Florida, just for the sheer hell of it(?) decided to hold its primary on January 31 – II guess because it’s a Tuesday.

    Michigan by the way has been in a very bad situation for years. Delegates have not really been selected Democratically (with a small d) since 1988. I think in 1988 only paid up members of the Democratic Party could participate in caucuses. Michigan may have no party registration. The whole thing is bad there. Almost as bad as Puerto Rico maybe.

    Sammy Finkelman (424c7b)

  123. There is a logic to starting small. Candidates need time to raise money and campaign. If you have a small state you an have a real campaign.

    Now this year, and this was also true in 2007, we have had a real early national campaign with lots of time and ups and down, because there have been so many debates. They start around May or earlier and really intensify around September.

    But people interested in the Presidential race didn’t count on that, and if it didn’t start small we wouldn’t have enough lead time. If we had a national primary maybe we wouldn’t get debates and debates so far ahead.

    By the way, even with a lot of time, we still have a bad system as nobody can jump in later, and nobody, it seems, can organize a draft. Adlai Stevenson was drafted in 1952. Eisenhower did not have to decide in early 1951 to campaign. Robert F Kennedy jumped in after the New Hampshire primary in March.States put candidates on the primary ballot even if they didn’t file for it. Nelson Rockefeller tried to avoid some primaries and the thrust of legislation in many states was not to let candidates do that.

    Fortunately, this year, the Republicans recognized that one of the candidates already in the race, who in any other set of circumstances would be written off as a has-been, was a perfectly acceptable candidate – it’s almost like he jumped in late.

    1968 was the last year candidates didn’t have
    ave to worry about money more than votes and 1972 was the first year candidates started dropping out because of money and not votes. Maybe mistakenly. If Edmund Muskie hadn’t quit after the Florida primary maybe he’d have staged a comeback. we’ve just never seen that that’s all. This year maybe we have but it is all before any votes are cast. We’ve had virtual primaries.

    Eugene McCarthy was funded by just a few people. and this did not cause a problem. Our problems come from too few candidates. This is a very big problem.

    The last sort of attempt at a draft was in 1976. People were desperate to stop Jimmy Carter. And if things had worked like in previous elections before 1972 he wouldn’t have become he nominee. he only collected I think 37% of the delegates. People were no longer thinking of going beyond the first ballot.

    In 1976 it came down to 3 big primaries in June: California, New Jersey and Ohio. Jimmy Carter looked at the polls and got Mayor Daley of Chicago to agree that if if he won the Ohio primary he should be the nominee.

    He lost California. That’s where Jerry Brown was from. In New Jersey there was an uncommitted so-called “Humprey-Brown” slate running. This was an organization slate. They said they were for Hubert Humphrey as President, Jerry Brown as Vice President. They betrayed the voters in the end.

    In Ohio, Jimmy Carter’s campaign essentially went like this:

    1) Only someone who ran in the primaries shold get the nomination.

    2) Jerry Brown isn’t so good.

    3) Hubert Humphrey is not running in the primaries.

    Therefore, vote for Jimmy Carter. Q.E.D.

    Now maybe the biggest reason Hubert Humphrey didn’t run was that he had a bad case of bladder cancer, whose seriousness he didn’t acknowledge. He died at the beginning of 1978.

    Sammy Finkelman (424c7b)

  124. Comment by Beldar — 12/5/2011 @ 5:11 pm

    Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and, yes, Florida should be put at the very back of the pack for presidential primaries for at least three decades; indeed, Iowa and New Hampshire shouldn’t have another early primary until we’re comfortably into the 22nd Century.

    The parties can’t just assign states to be early, nor can Congress I think.

    The state and the state parties make the decision. Primaries are (in most cases) paid for by the state government. Caucuses, which are the default if there is no primary, and sometimes determine delegates even if there is a legal primary, are paid for or organized by the parties.

    Texas last time had both and in the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton won the primary but Barack Obama won the caucuses. Figuring she’d clinch the nomination early, the Hillary Clinton campaign had not organized in some caucuses – it got blindsided by about 10 Obama victories in caucuses in February, and also there was more enthusiasm for Obama and enthusiasm matters more in a caucus than a primary, and it matters even more in a poll.

    Gingrich polling so high is a sign of enthusiasm – maybe not for him entirely, but for his candidacy as opposed to Romney.

    Anyway on top of that they all recognized the benefit of starting small because they were afraid of getting stuck with a bad candidate.

    Parties can penalize these states that attempt to select delegates too early. But Michigan and Florida defied the parties and we know the story. If there are no caucuses, a state could have no delegates and no party wants to do that.

    The current nomination system is dreadfully broken and needs a radical re-design — radical in order to restore it to something rational, not a complete return to the days of nominations being brokered by party bosses in smoke-filled rooms at the convention, but something other than this charade we’re currently involved in.

    We need two things: The possibility of jumping in late and a source of plentiful easy money for candidates.

    Smoke filled rooms are no good, but the possibility of a compromise at a convention might be very useful.

    Sammy Finkelman (424c7b)

  125. Raising taxes on Michael Moore is bad.

    Raising taxes on the rich right wingers is good.

    Typical lefty mindset.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  126. gulrud – If Romney has transparency issues dating Back to 2006, it seems Perry is addressing current ones:

    http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2011/08/email-purges-withheld-documents-shroud-governors-office-from-public-scrutiny/

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  127. Why does raising taxes go one way?

    the left hate the rich[except those who vote for them] because in their minds the rich are the cause of all evils.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  128. Iowa gave us Jimmy Carter, it did really open a path for Reagan as well, but let’s ignore that for a moment. Sometimes either result, means nothing,
    Harkin won Iowa in 1992, and Tsongas won New Hampshire, with Clinton in second, yet he was the Comeback kid,

    dimitri mayakovsky (87e966)

  129. Paul is leading among Democrats and Indies that are expected to caucus with Republicans.

    Sounds like the Left has their own “Operation Chaos” in play.

    AD-RtR/OS! (76ba29)

  130. 124,125,126. Thanks for the analysis Sammy.

    128. By Sammy’s analysis I don’t see the race lasting ’til March 6th when MN has her primary. I’ll probably vote Michele out of provincial loyalty.

    Perry has no time to get his legs under him and Romney, the speed horse, is breaking down already.

    The Elites, in their rush to wrap the contest up, have hosed themselves getting the Dimmis hot and bothered prematurely. As Byron York pointed out yesterday, the Insiders’ preferences have become signal blacklists for the Outsiders.

    Outside the NE, IL, MI and the Mormon West Romney will have no wins and few seconds.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  131. 128. Comment by daleyrocks — 12/6/2011 @ 9:14 am

    gulrud – If Romney has transparency issues dating Back to 2006, it seems Perry is addressing current ones:

    http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2011/08/email-purges-withheld-documents-shroud-governors-office-from-public-scrutiny/

    Or not addressing them. That article is from late August when he first entered the race.

    By Patricia Kilday Hart
    Austin Bureau Reporter

    When then-Gov. George W. Bush ran for president in 2000, his office released a treasure trove of information relating to his years as Texas’ chief executive….the exact number of lobbyists and campaign donors with whom he met…which state lawmakers Bush conferred with – and on what subject…how much time he spent reviewing capital punishment cases prior to executions… when he arrived at the office, when he took time off for the gym and when he went home…….

    …While Perry extols open government – most recently challenging Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to “open the books” of the nation’s central bank….there is a lot the public does not know about Rick Perry. Where does he go each day, and with whom does he talk? What is discussed when he meets with top state agency executives? How does he evaluate a clemency request from a death row inmate? Or an application for a grant from his Emerging Technology Fund? What opinions are expressed to him through email and how does he respond?…

    Judging from his performance at the debates, he probably delegates all that.

    The Houston Chronicle has a lawsuit pending regarding Perry’s decision on a clemency request in 2004 by Cameron Todd Willingham, whose capital murder conviction stirred debate over the science of arson investigations. Perry refused the newspaper’s request to release his staff’s analysis or comments about Willingham’s request for clemency, which raised new evidence. Willingham was executed Feb. 17, 2004.

    Automated email purges

    Previous Texas governors released their reviews of execution cases. Perry’s office has maintained that any documents showing his views or staff discussion are not public record. He has presided over more than 200 executions as governor.

    This article pulls its punches here. There is little doubt that Wallingham was executed on the basis of junk science, where the whole methodology used in Texas for labeling fires arson was junk, although that;’s the only case maybe where somebody got executed because of that, and Rick Perry is accused of not wanting to find that out when there was still time to give him clemency. I think this is most forgivable if Rick Perry, to put it bluntly, is an idiot who takes direction from other people.

    The article also says they’ve missed legal deadlines for disclosing information about contracts and grants and everything not legally required seems to be withheld.

    …“The governor follows all disclosure requirements as required by the state and has led the charge to increasing transparency in state government,” said spokeswoman Catherine Frazier. “He has led by example, putting the check register for the governor’s office online so that citizens can clearly and easily see how their tax dollars are being spent. State agencies, at the governor’s request have followed suit.”

    How, but not why!! What he’s putting online is apparently what is public, but not online. Not what isn’t otherwise known to newspapers or their sources.

    Some of his decisions in favor of secrecy, however, have generated considerable controversy over the years.

    Houston attorney Joe Larsen, who represents the Freedom of Information Foundation of Texas, said he believes Perry’s office is violating state law by automatically purging all staff members’ computers of emails older than seven days. Perry’s office has said it prints and saves documents subject to open-records laws and government document retention schedules. Larsen said he believes vital records are lost by the automatic purge policy and notes that state law requires records be saved in an electronic, searchable form.

    He is saying that printing out whatever they say must be saved is not good enough. But does the law state that certain records have to be kept in electronic form in the first place? Let’s say anyway he’s skirting the law, or somebody is. If Perry was taking direction from somebody that somebody might not want that to be known.

    “In May, 2008, Larsen filed a complaint with the Texas Attorney General’s Office on behalf of a Wisconsin blogger and open government advocate seeking Perry emails. The AG declined to intervene on the grounds that the governor’s office said it followed the state’s document retention schedule by printing and filing protected emails.

    Larsen finds that implausible.

    “It is unlikely, logistically almost impossible, that Perry’s office actually kept a hard copy of all emails that would have fallen within the records retention schedule,” he said. “It’s just not going to happen in a busy office.”

    …[Perry’s] official schedule for one six-month period provided evidence he worked an average of seven hours a week, and included 38 weekdays with “no state scheduled events.” Perry responded, “Just because it is written down doesn’t mean I’m not out there working for the people of Texas.”

    Doesn’t he mean NOT written down??

    There seems to be some indication he does things unelated to being Governor of Texas:

    …Perry has left the country without it being reflected on his public schedule. Reporters learned that he took a 2004 trip to the Bahamas with San Antonio businessman James Leininger, a Perry campaign donor, and anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist after being spotted scuba-diving by a tourist. The trip did not appear on his schedule released under the state Public Information Act. At the time, press secretary Kathy Walt acknowledged that Perry had begun releasing a far less complete report of his time after hiring a new scheduler. She also noted that “the Open Meetings Act and the Public Information Act have certain exemptions.”

    Bloomberg doesn’t reveal when he goes to the Bahamas but I don’t believe there’s any legal requirement. Of course there is a public schedule.

    Most of Perry’s travel is paid by campaign funds and detailed reports are not required to be disclosed. After the Bahamas trip, newspapers requested and got copies of the expenses paid for Perry’s Department of Public Safety security detail – and noted that the state picked up the tab for scuba equipment to accompany the governor. Since then, Perry has blocked public viewing of his security detail’s travel expense reports.

    The Chronicle and the San Antonio Express-News have sued for the records. Two lower court rulings favored the newspapers, but the Texas Supreme Court in June agreed with Perry that his personal safety concerns were grounds for withholding the information.

    Before that ruling was announced, proposed legislation keeping the governor’s travel security expenses private drew controversy in the Texas Legislature. The bill died in a Senate committee after lawmakers objected that the public should know if a state official misused a travel security detail.

    Perry leaned on lawmakers to include language in a school finance bill passed in the Legislature’s special session that would keep secret for 18 months the travel vouchers of his security team. Until then, the public would be able to view only summary reports that disclose a trip’s destination, but not specific businesses visited or the names of family members accompanying the governor.

    Sammy Finkelman (424c7b)

  132. I don’t believe in man-made gorebull warming does that make me a larouchian?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  133. Comment by dimitri mayakovsky — 12/6/2011 @ 9:20 am

    Harkin won Iowa in 1992,

    Iowa was the home state of Senator Tom Harkin, so everybody agreed it didn’t count that year.

    and Tsongas won New Hampshire, with Clinton in second, yet he was the Comeback kid,

    Self-proclaimed comeback kid, and he was referring to the past (he’d been defeated as Governor of Arkansas in 1980 for instance) and to the future. It was a vow. It is possible he meant that to be interpreted as better than some polls.

    Sammy Finkelman (424c7b)

  134. Yes, I’m focusing on the wider issue, the reason why I came to hate the ‘horserace aspect’ of the thing,

    dimitri mayakovsky (87e966)

  135. “Or not addressing them. That article is from late August when he first entered the race.”

    Sammy – Yes, the article is from August and the controversy continues today. You can google more articles if you choose. The Governor’s office even changed its policy of deleting emails after seven days in response to the scrutiny.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  136. The Hill has a post up “GOP Kingmaker’s Dissatisfied with Choice Between Gingrich and Romney”. And the only ‘kingmaker’ commenting on both is George Will.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  137. Re: your post #120, Dustin… I always find your revisionist history and unique interpretations of what others have said to be quite amusing. To describe you as a bit of a fabulist doesn’t quite capture it.

    The use of Gomer Pyle wasn’t intended to insult members of our military, it was used to insult your favorite candidate. On one hand, you find little value in a Harvard, Stanford, BYU education and a man making his mark in the field of his choice, but somehow believe that a man who honorably serves in the military and then makes use of GI benefits to further his education is somehow unique and that it is also a clear indicator of fitness for higher office.

    As I’ve stated numerous times, your contention that Rick Perry made some sort of superhero move in making cuts to education in Texas is notable in that it has been clearly shown that he did this because he was forced to.

    There is nothing funny or false about that fact.

    In addition, Perry is among the most blatant practitioners of pay for play, an influence peddler who may be second to none. I would contend that the way the game is played in Texas isn’t a prescription for what ails the U.S.A..

    Now it’s off to the next NotRomney for you, as Mr. Perry has clearly shown he doesn’t have what it takes to run for POTUS. That’s neither good nor bad. It is what it is.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  138. Hillarity Clinton-Gay rights is the same as womans rights.

    😆

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  139. Don’t be an ass, Milhouse, your use of polytheism to describe Mormon doctrine is meant as a pejorative. The LDS are no more polytheists than other Christians who believe in the Trinity.

    They certainly are. Trinitarians believe in three gods, which are nevertheless asserted to somehow be one, in a way that isn’t comprehensible by human brains. Very well. But Mormons believe that there are countless thousands of gods, and that their number is constantly increasing. The English word for that is “polytheist”.

    Milhouse (d3fd53)

  140. WTF are you even bringing the subject of religion up for?

    I did not raise it. I have never raised it. You’re the one constantly bringing it up.

    Milhouse (d3fd53)

  141. bullscat.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  142. But Mormons believe that there are countless thousands of gods, and that their number is constantly increasing. The English word for that is “polytheist”.

    Produce scripture or doctrine that supports that load.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  143. Hey Milhouse, if you don’t want to discuss religion in this thread NOW is the time for you to quit while you are behind.

    Icy (cc3015)

  144. 141. “in a way that isn’t comprehensible by human brains. [Very well.]”

    And was not, at the time the matter was settled, circa the Council of Nicea, otherwise maintained.

    115. “The LDS are no more polytheists than other Christians who believe in the Trinity.”

    Again, circa the Council of Nicea, Christianity was defined as of necessity comprised of a finite set of explicit beliefs inclusive of belief in the Trinity.

    On this basis, “other” is a calculated affront, whereas “polytheists” was an inconvenient truth.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  145. “Trinitarians believe in three gods, which are nevertheless asserted to somehow be one, in a way that isn’t comprehensible by human brains.”

    More Milhouse intolerance on display.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  146. Milhouse – I have no interest in hearing about how religions other than your own are incomprehensible to the human brain. There are plenty of blogs focused on religion elsewhere on the intertubes where you can give free rein to your bigotry.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  147. 144. “Produce scripture or doctrine that supports that load.”

    That might be Doctrine and Covenants, Section 132, especially verse 20 re: those united in Telestial matrimony.

    “Then they shall be gods; because they have no end; therefore shall they be from ‘everlasting to everlasting, because they continue; then shall they be above all, because all things are subject unto them. Then shall they be gods, because they have all power, and the angels are subject to them.”

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  148. 147. I’m sorry daley, that was precisely they way, word for word, I was instructed in Catechism in the old LCA, and my understanding of the matter is only little improved following much study.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  149. Colonel, do Mormons or do they not believe that every person who does all the right things, participates in all the appropriate rituals, etc., eventually becomes a god and is assigned a world of his own? Do they or do they not believe that that is how the God of this world came to that estate; that He was once a good Mormon on some other world, did everything right, and this world is His reward? And that the same thing happened to all the other good Mormons of that world? If so, tell me how many gods Mormons believe exist altogether. How many good Mormons have lived in all the worlds since the beginning of time, each of whom is now a god? If that’s not polytheism, then I’d like to know what is.

    At least trinitarians assert that their three gods are really only one, even if they can’t explain how.

    “Trinitarians believe in three gods, which are nevertheless asserted to somehow be one, in a way that isn’t comprehensible by human brains.”

    More Milhouse intolerance on display.

    Huh? How is that intolerant? Is it not a strictly factual statement? Is that not what trinitarians claim?

    Milhouse (d7842d)

  150. More Milhouse intolerance on display.

    Comment by daleyrocks — 12/6/2011 @ 10:52 am

    ?

    Are you seriously whining that Milhouse said about the mainstream trinity what every clergy would say?

    Under ‘Trinity’ in my Bible Dictionary it says,

    “while it brings to us one of the great mysteries of revelation, and transcends the finite comprehension, it is essential to the understanding of the Scriptures”

    It is not “intolerance on display” to admit that the trinity is difficult, if not impossible, for an earthly human mind to really understand.

    This is not a credible way to win Romney some points, nor is comparing Perry’s admitted ‘we were late with two FOIA requests so we hired someone else to do it’ with Romney’s ‘we deleted everything about our incredibly lucrative deals between former Bain execs and health insurance providers we just gave billions of federal dollars to via Romneycare+Ted Kennedy’.

    Oh well.

    In addition, Perry is among the most blatant practitioners of pay for play, an influence peddler who may be second to none. I would contend that the way the game is played in Texas isn’t a prescription for what ails the U.S.A..

    You have tried and failed to prove this many times. You complained Perry lives a “lavish” lifestyle, and all you could produce were some footwear, free flights to offer speeches (nothing, then), and the governor’s mansion (fair compensation that I guess millionaires may opt out of, but hardly corrupt).

    Second to none? LOL.

    As I’ve stated numerous times, your contention that Rick Perry made some sort of superhero move in making cuts to education in Texas is notable in that it has been clearly shown that he did this because he was forced to.

    Prove that Rick Perry had to cut education specifically, a famous sacred cow agency, and one Romney INCREASED when MA’s budget was far worse than Texas’s has ever been.

    You can’t. You made that up. Perry didn’t have to cut spending at all. He could have raided the rainy day fund. He could have cut other agencies. He could have ignored the balanced budget amendment with tricks liberals use in California. In fact, I’ve repeatedly linked proof that Perry was asked to do these various things at the time he instead cut education because it was costing more than Texas could afford.

    You say ‘forced’, but you called me a liar for saying Perry made the cuts. How was I dishonest? I wasn’t. You were.

    a man who honorably serves in the military and then makes use of GI benefits to further his education is somehow unique and that it is also a clear indicator of fitness for higher office.

    Ah, but you’re projecting again. You did slur military service on at least two occasions.

    And yes, I think honorable service in the military is an indicator of fitness for higher office. Never did I say this was unique, however in this primary, it actually is unique. Perry is the only candidate who served in uniform, and this is a bona fide credential.

    And it is more impressive for Perry to be a successful governor, having worked his way up from nothing via military service, than for Romney to be born the son of two politicians, brother of a politician, grandson of a politician, and then become a politician because he had excellent connections. That’s just my opinion, but it’s pretty reasonable.

    It’s sad that you will slur veterans like this, and then throw that clown nose on that you were only slurring Perry’s military service. So service is only laudable if you like the person who served?

    And what if someone starts slurring Mormons, and then says they were only really intending to slur Romney? Is that OK? Of course you wouldn’t think so.

    You are a hack, Haiku.

    But it’s pretty clear to me that Perry will continue to be a governor and not be nominated, and Romney will continue to lose elections and not be nominated. By all means, blast Perry, a good man, with these lies and smears. There really is nothing you can do to save Romney from Romneycare and the abortion flip flop, which is why you’re acting like a fool.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  151. Milhouse – I have no interest in hearing about how religions other than your own are incomprehensible to the human brain.

    Trinitarians openly concede that it’s impossible to understand how there can simultaneously be three gods and one. Indeed, they claim that as a virtue of their belief.

    Pretty much any religion has to have similar beliefs, though. If God created man’s brain, then almost by definition His nature must be beyond that brain’s comprehension. The human brain cannot grasp infinity, so how can it grasp an infinite God? The human brain is bound by time, so how can it really understand timelessness? God’s omniscience and our free will appear to our brains to contradict each other; the only way to reconcile them is to realise that He is not bound by time, but that’s something our time-bound brains can’t understand.

    Milhouse (d7842d)

  152. it has been clearly shown that he did this because he was forced to.

    If I recall correctly, the series of links you used to prove this included truthers: people who think Perry is part of a bilderberger cult that is eugenicist and planned 9/11.

    I’m not being a revisionist. I asked Haiku to specify what I was lying about when I said I appreciate Perry making this cut, and he said he would tell me ‘tomorrow’ instead of backing up his charges. This is how a dishonorable man behaves. Then he spammed the thread with the lowest garbage I know he doesn’t believe while mocking my supposed dishonesty, before telling me this was all a joke, and finally admitting I had told the truth all along, but hey, Perry had to made that cut even though that is completely absurd and Perry was even sued for freezing and cutting education spending.

    Now, let me admit, there are reasonable Romney fans out there. But Romney has a very vocal cult of personality online who thinks he is nearly perfect and must be defended, and all who criticize Romney are fair game for lies and alinksy style projection.

    Daleyrocks gets too wound up, usually because of personal beefs, such as his feud with Milhouse leading to an overreaction, but I don’t think Daleyrocks is setting out to shill for Romney so much as trying to defend Republican contenders. Maybe I’m wrong about that, but I don’t think his heart is filled with hatred like Haiku’s actually is.

    Haiku never answered my question: if Romney were from a different religion and a democrat, with his same record in office, same business background, same results, would Haiku support him? I can say I would support Perry, gladly, under those conditions. But Romney? We’d all call him a ridiculous limousine liberal for banning guns, his hysterical shrieking for the environment, and his role in creating Obamacare.

    Why does that little R, and for some people, his faith, mean so much as to compromise one’s own integrity? How can someone allow an internet discussion to affect them to the point where they knowingly accuse of the dishonest tactics they are employing?

    Dustin (cb3719)

  153. At least trinitarians assert that their three gods are really only one, even if they can’t explain how.

    “Trinitarians believe in three gods, which are nevertheless asserted to somehow be one, in a way that isn’t comprehensible by human brains.”

    More Milhouse intolerance on display.

    Huh? How is that intolerant? Is it not a strictly factual statement? Is that not what trinitarians claim?

    Trinitarians say it is ONE God and THREE persons. The New Testament says there is only one God. For example:

    You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that—and shudder.

    James 2:19

    If there’s one thing Christians are absolutely clear on is that there is only one God. Maybe you want to put this down to just semantics but it is not. We cannot believe there are simultaneously three Gods and one God. It would be contrary to the Bible – Old and New Testaments – and a contradiction if it was said that way.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  154. And it remains a contradiction the way you put it. The only way you can reconcile it is to say that it’s beyond the capacity of our brains to understand it. Which is a perfectly reasonable response.

    Milhouse (d7842d)

  155. “147. I’m sorry daley, that was precisely they way, word for word, I was instructed in Catechism in the old LCA, and my understanding of the matter is only little improved following much study.”

    gary – Faith requires belief not scientific examination or understanding. If your checklist of the beliefs of a denomination do not match another, were you taught to be “anti” the other denomination? The human mind can comprehend faith just fine without a detailed understanding of its components parts. Saying the human mind cannot understand the Trinity is just flat out offensive.

    Milhouse appears to believe in a sterile, check the box comparative view of religions, which is fine for him, but I find offensive when he attempts to interpret the religions of others.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  156. And was not, at the time the matter was settled, circa the Council of Nicea, otherwise maintained.

    Comment by gary gulrud — 12/6/2011 @ 10:43 am

    It’s not really the Trinity that was settled at Nicea. Well before then neither the Trinity nor most of the other key Christian beliefs were in dispute in any significant way. What Nicea was convened to decide was something called the Arian Heresy, which wasn’t about the Trinity but the nature of Jesus’ divinity. Arianism was not supported by many in the Christian sphere even before then.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  157. Well, regardless, it’s clear to me that Milhouse did not say that out of some sort of hatred. It’s pretty banal, actually.

    This primary is bad enough without playing the bigotry card any time religion is uttered.

    And how religious to people really think Romney is? He went from attending planned parenthood fundraisers and telling pro choicers they need him in DC to saying he is actually kinda pro life. This man’s heart was guided by something other than moral or religious clarity on the most basic issues such as whether abortion is a human or constitutional right (As Romney repeatedly said it was).

    Also, this is stupid. Romney went to Harvard Law School. He has to have read Roe v Wade at some point in his life. How do you call that “good law” and promise to defend that “good law” and then realize decades later that it needs to be overturned? What kind of legal intellect is behind that kind of thinking? Has Romney ever won a case in a court? What kind of law did he practice? I grant that a lot of people have legacy connections that get them ahead of their betters when applying to Harvard, but even Obama practiced law for a little while. I may disagree with Obama’s legal views, but they are more or less consistent. Romney held exactly Obama’s views on Roe v Wade, and then exactly the opposite. At the same time, he thought abortion rights must be defended with ironclad, lifelong pledges, and then switched to the total opposite.

    This man is not guided by God or legal reasoning.

    So what guided Romney?

    We all know. He was trying to con us into voting for him.

    This is one reason to not use Romney’s election as some kind of referendum on Mormonism. I don’t know of a single Mormon who is cool with the gun tax or thinks abortion is a right.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  158. I was struck toward the end of high school by Tillich’s discussion of God’s immanence and concomittant transcendence in his Systematic Theology.

    The ancient author’s of the OT express what our Western minds miss, that the Father is sovereign and holy, omnipotent and totally apart. He is in control at the level of brownian motion as well as at that of the knots of gas, which on collapse, give rise to stars or galaxies, or clusters of galaxies.

    At the time I took the Christ to be His instantiation in material form, the personification of His character, and the Holy Spirit as the interface between the material and the holy.

    But I decided it was all too marvelous to entertain.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  159. The human mind can comprehend faith just fine without a detailed understanding of its components parts. Saying the human mind cannot understand the Trinity is just flat out offensive.

    You’re saying you have to take a leap of faith.

    I don’t see why you’re offended, but don’t you see that Milhouse is not offering a view that contradicts what you just said, and he didn’t offer it in a spirit of bigotry?

    Milhouse appears to believe in a sterile, check the box comparative view of religions, which is fine for him, but I find offensive when he attempts to interpret the religions of others.

    There have been times when I’ve been bugged by Milhouse defining who is and isn’t a Jew or a Christian, but I don’t really think that is like this. I think you’re reading too much into his comment, based on your history with him.

    Seriously, I’m trying to meet you halfway on this one. I don’t think you’re trying to play the bigot card dishonestly, but it’s not a fair accusation in this case.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  160. And it remains a contradiction the way you put it. The only way you can reconcile it is to say that it’s beyond the capacity of our brains to understand it. Which is a perfectly reasonable response.

    No if it’s a contradiction it can’t be true. Saying it’s beyond our capacity to understand doesn’t reconcile a contradiction. Maybe you want to say it that way (3 gods and 1 god) in order to logically dispose of the Trinity, but don’t say that Christians say that.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  161. 158. I was speaking loosely about all of the matters on which agreement was reached in the fourth century regarding what was the content of the Christian faith, the Canon, etc. You are certainly welcome to expatiate and articulate my cursory attempts.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  162. . Saying it’s beyond our capacity to understand doesn’t reconcile a contradiction.

    I guess the idea here is that the issue is resolved by something that breaks basic reasoning such as identity logic. Or maybe something about God’s nature allows him to be in three forms at the same time, while remaining one entity (this is the easiest way for me to resolve it).

    but don’t say that Christians say that.

    I think there’s a variety of things Christians will say about it.

    Each is necessary, and each is distinct, and yet all are one.

    Is this polytheism? Most Christians would disagree, but having distinct deities is an honest basis for this claim.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  163. 162. Language and logic are created things. In fact, Goedel showed that no language sufficient to express addition can be made so as to preclude contradiction in “well-formed” sentences.

    Ambiguity is rather a feature of language, even Hai might appreciate.

    Expecting our understanding to handle every eventuality is most unrealistic.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  164. 132. Comment by gary gulrud — 12/6/2011 @ 9:42 am

    124,125,126. Thanks for the analysis Sammy.

    128. By Sammy’s analysis I don’t see the race lasting ’til March 6th when MN has her primary.

    That was true for most years. This year it could be different.

    First, the Republican primaries will be more like the Democratic primaries were last time. A state now can have a Winner-take-all primary in the Republican race only if it takes place after April 1.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/11/16/theres_no_conservative_case_for_romney_112002.html

    In Mitt Romney, Republicans have an intentionally content-free presidential candidate who can garner no more than 20 to 25 percent of the primary vote, and who is at war with the conservative base of the Republican Party. But for the first time in 40 years, Republicans have abolished the winner-take-all primary system until April 1st, and given the new system’s potential for lengthening the nomination process, other candidates can and very likely will come back. With Romney stuck in the twenties, the Republican nomination may not be decided until the convention.

    Till the convention is pretty hard. We still don’t have second ballots. But there have been a number of long fought races in both parties since 1972, although in many cases there was really one candidate who was winning. There will come a point when they start counting projected delegates.

    Second, if what happens is Gingrich is in the lead, Romney won’t quit so quickly. Vice versa too maybe. There are some people thinking that there could be a long Gingrich-Romney contest.

    Outside the NE, IL, MI and the Mormon West Romney will have no wins and few seconds.

    Romney tried to advance the Nevada caucuses into January. That’s because the first states may havea misleading effect.

    Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb)

  165. “But Perry Romney has a very vocal cult of personality online who thinks he is nearly perfect and must be defended, and all who criticize Romney Perry are fair game for lies and alinksy style projection.”

    “but I don’t think Daleyrocks is setting out to shill for Romney so much as trying to defend Republican contenders”

    Dustin – I think you are finally starting to get it above. I didn’t bother to attack yet the lies you repeated again above in #120 about Romney. You cited his enormous spending increases as governor, but yet you know from your own link he kept increases below the level of population growth and inflation, so is that an honest statement?

    With respect to Romney’s final budget as governor, the one you claim produced a $1.3 billion deficit, in Romney’s next to last month in office he used his executive power to cut spending by $425 million to rebalance the projected budget rather than transfer funds from the state’s rainy day fund as the Democrat’s wanted:

    “On November 10, Governor Romney announced that he would exercise his authority under state law
    (often referred to as “9C” authority because of the section of the Massachusetts General Laws from
    which it derives) and make $425 million in spending cuts to the FY 2007 budget. This Facts at a Glance explains the Governor’s 9C authority, discusses the size of the gap between projected spending and projected revenue for FY 2007, examines the factors that have increased or reduced the size of the gap since the original FY 2007 budget was enacted, and lists several options for addressing that gap.

    What is 9C and why is the Governor invoking it now?

    The FY 2007 budget enacted by the Legislature included a transfer of $550 million from the
    Stabilization Fund (the “Rainy Day Fund”) to the General Fund. That budget also included tax
    revenue assumptions that ultimately would have been met with 2.6 percent annual growth in tax
    revenue between FY 2006 and FY 2007. At the time, some expected that the budget would be able to
    be balanced without the Stabilization Fund transfer because revenue could grow faster than the 2.6 percent official projection. Were tax revenue to grow at 5 percent a year or more (as it has in recent years) the budget would have been able to be balanced without a transfer from the Stabilization Fund.

    At this point in the year, however, tax revenue has grown 3.6 percent over the same period from FY
    2006, while the Romney administration now projects an annual growth rate of 3.5 percent. As
    projecting future tax revenue requires making predictions about the future of the state and nationaleconomies, such predictions are notoriously difficult. It is still possible that tax revenue will grow rapidly enough to balance the budget without use of Stabilization Fund transfers or spending reductions. It is also very possible that it will not. Because the Legislature has not yet overriden the
    Governor’s vetoes of transfers from the Stabilization Fund to the General Fund, the budget is technically out of balance given current official revenue projections.
    Section 9C of Chapter 29 of the Massachusetts General Laws requires that when projected revenue is less than projected spending, the Governor should act to ensure that the budget is brought into balance.”

    http://www.massbudget.org/file_storage/documents/Governor_Romneys_9C_Cuts.pdf

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  166. Gary, one problem for me is that you can use identity logic to figure out that you exist and, classically, that God exists.

    If we pull identity logic out, there really isn’t a whole lot left to reason upon.

    That’s Johannas Climacus’s Leap of Faith in his Unscientific Postscript (J Climacus was a pen name). You assume the consequence because that is the only way available.

    Ambiguity is rather a feature of language

    It sounds like you’re already familiar, at least with the concept, so maybe you’d enjoy reading it.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  167. 169. Thanks for the tip, Dustin, I was not aware of him or his work, as far as I recall.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  168. Dustin – I think you are finally starting to get it above. I didn’t bother to attack yet the lies you repeated again above in #120 about Romney. You cited his enormous spending increases as governor, but yet you know from your own link he kept increases below the level of population growth and inflation, so is that an honest statement?

    It’s a 100% honest view.

    Romneycare cost how much money, Daleyrocks? Just give me a number.

    Does this really represent what you’re summing Romney up as ‘increase below the rate of growth’?

    In my opinion, MA’s government was 50% too big, based on Texas’s being that much smaller, so Romney just keeping pace is not acceptable.

    There wasn’t much population growth to speak of, and I do not have much faith in the kinds of figured pundits can create, such as inflation.

    But we don’t really have to wade into the nitty gritty of this, because Romneycare lost tens of billions and cost yet more than that. It’s a huge money pit.

    You know I’m honest to conclude that Romney is responsible for enormous spending increases. He made MA’s government bigger and more intrusive. I know his fans forgive him because Romney didn’t predict the democrats would take an entitlement program and run wild. Personally, I think Romney welcomed it, based on his reaction to Ted Kennedy’s contribution (including the federal bailout), but at the very least, you have to acknowledge that Romney was certainly able to predict how expensive his entitlement would become.

    All the while, MA’s government is simply far too big, and Romney is increases other agencies, such as education, because that is what a certain kind of politician always does to prove they are solving our problems.

    I find this to be a remarkable distinction from Perry’s record. I’m not just making it up… if I didn’t think this were true, I wouldn’t have a bone to pick with Romney in the first place.

    Romney signed into law enormous and predictable spending increases.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  169. I don’t see why you’re offended, but don’t you see that Milhouse is not offering a view that contradicts what you just said, and he didn’t offer it in a spirit of bigotry?

    No

    There have been times when I’ve been bugged by Milhouse defining who is and isn’t a Jew or a Christian, but I don’t really think that is like this. I think you’re reading too much into his comment, based on your history with him.

    Milhouse has said nothing to change my opinion of him. I’m still waiting for his authoritative dissertation on Sodom and Gomorrah that he promised everyone he after insulting everybody.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  170. Romney is a silly climate change pansy I think I’d rather vote for someone else that’s less gullible

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  171. Furthermore, MA’s budget did go down one year Romney was governor, but then Romney sent it in the opposite direction for the next three.

    My own link, as Daleyrocks mentioned, explains that hey, big governments get bigger. So if you ignore Romneycare, which like Obamacare has most of the damage occur after the person responsible is out of office, is Romney a fiscal conservative?

    Of course not. He left MA on a path for bigger government ad infinitum, even though he found the state with a bloated government. Even he admits that much.

    From 2003 to 2007, MA had a golden opportunity, because Bush signed into law cap gains tax cuts and we had an economic boom and tons of people were cashing out. MA was not only reaping the revenue from Romney’s tax increases (loophole closures and fees, he calls them), but also huge revenue gains from things Romney had no control over.

    What did they do with this windfall? Ugh. They left the state about as bad as they found it, if you ignore Romneycare entirely. And the increased spending, needlessly, and in many cases Romney spearheaded the increases.

    How is this person going to deal with the federal debt? How is he going to deal with the ponzi scheme entitlements?

    My prediction is that Romney would make a show of some cuts, while increasing spending in other areas to prove how he’s solving problems, and the latter would outweigh the former.

    My prediction is that Perry would stand on principle, no matter how ugly it got, demanding a balanced budget amendment, which I admit is an imperfect and crude solution, but can be implemented in a successful way, and we’re at a point where such a measure is needed. Perry would stand on principle and utterly change entitlements to where we can afford them without robbing the future.

    And of course, Romney doesn’t think that way.

    No, I’m not just making this distinction up. Maybe I’m wrong, but if I’m wrong I’m honestly wrong.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  172. Milhouse has said nothing to change my opinion of him. I’m still waiting for his authoritative dissertation on Sodom and Gomorrah that he promised everyone he after insulting everybody.

    Comment by daleyrocks — 12/6/2011 @ 12:28 pm

    Fair enough. I disagree.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  173. 157. “The human mind can comprehend faith just fine without a detailed understanding of its components parts. Saying the human mind cannot understand the Trinity is just flat out offensive.”

    I think David Hume said in his magnum opus something like the “mystery of faith” is beyond human understanding, meaning faith itself I gather.

    Though he has a delightful way with English, I find him a difficult read. I am never certain I fully understand him.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  174. “Furthermore, MA’s budget did go down one year Romney was governor, but then Romney sent it in the opposite direction for the next three.”

    Dustin – My point was you keep describing enormous spending increases under Romney and using the same standards you use to evaluate Perry, they just don’t exist, so it’s not an honest comment to make.

    Romney care was signed under him and the spending occurred later, which is another issue.

    My point is to keep the talking points honest.

    I have also pointed out that Perry increased various fees and taxes over his tenure, which you have not seen fit to acknowledge, so of the two, only Romney is the sinner?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  175. But to simplify the matter, there’s nothing exciting or sexy about cutting spending on education just so the government can continue to run a balance budget.

    Basically, Perry took over a ship that was running fairly well (however, it’s only fair to note this is because of Texas’s legislature of which Perry was one of the most fiscally conservative members), and tweaked it. That’s all the glory of going from deciding to slow down from 75 mph to 73 mph, so as to avoid a ticket. Big whoop.

    Romney’s government wasn’t going 75 mph. It was going 100 mph. Romney’s inability to slow to 75 mph is forgiving because he, like Perry, left the government relatively close to how he found it.

    In my opinion, it’s actually deceptive to see this as apples to apples. It’s much harder to govern a state with a balanced and reasonable budget for 12 years than it is to let the government continue going about as wild as it was for your single short term.

    And of course, the cherry on top is Romneycare, which Romney’s fans don’t think should be added in because like Obamacare, the political genius is that the crippling spending Romney signed into law mostly affects the government Romney is no longer a part of.

    I guess the metaphor is the speeder going 100 lit the fuse on a rocket booster and bailed out of the car as though he’s no longer liable.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  176. Daleyrocks, my point is that Romney is clearly a lot more liberal than Perry, and any analysis that concludes otherwise is absurd.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  177. And partisanship is stupid, if it takes us to a place where we’re defending Richard Nixon all over again. It’s not actually any good for the party, either. Just look at how Obama treats his loyalists.

    Rejecting Romney is healthy for the party. I think those who endorsed him should be heckled for endorsing Romneycare. I get they were being realists and surviving in today’s political world, but let’s make those realists live in a different reality.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  178. Each is necessary, and each is distinct, and yet all are one.

    Is this polytheism? Most Christians would disagree, but having distinct deities is an honest basis for this claim.

    If someone wants to say it sounds like three gods, or it’s a paradox then I won’t argue the point. However, God cannot be put into a box as some wise people have said. BTW your link has Isaiah 48:16 one of a number of Old Testament verses that provide evidence of the Trinity.

    I guess the idea here is that the issue is resolved by something that breaks basic reasoning such as identity logic.

    I think it’s something along those lines. Here is a logically comprehensible theory of the Trinity:

    An Unpublished Essay on the Trinity

    If it’s as Jonathan Edwards describes it, then it the Holy Trinity really is 3 identities and 1 unified God simultaneously.

    BTW, Edwards delivered one of the most famous sermons in history: Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  179. Daley, you consistently capture what I find unsettling about Dustin’s modus operandi: he cherry-picks, conflates or misinterprets nearly every issue he misuses for his heavily partisan contentions. Even when he’s taken figuratively by the scruff of the neck and made to look at the hard facts, he refuses to acknowledge reality. He seems to think others should accept his contentions at face value, because, as he insists, his contentions – dishonest though they may be – have been arrived at “honestly”.

    He is the first Quimby I have ever encountered who hails from the great state of Texas. I had never thought it possible.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  180. Obama says the middle class must not pay new taxes he then went on a tirade about the rich not paying their fair share but that does not include his cronies who do not pay their taxes he also talked about economic inequality which means we must pay that mcdonalds worker $40,000 more than a CEO.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  181. 155. “Trinitarians say it is ONE God and THREE persons…

    ‘You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that—and shudder.’

    James 2:19″

    Of course, you are correct, Gerald, ‘persons’ is doctrinally precise.

    Milhouse’s “Very well.” I took to be accepting of our freedom, rather than freezing an error in place. As though, we were not allowed to improve on the expression ‘gods’.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  182. First of all yes organization matters very much in Iowa. Without organization all of the cows and the corns would be scattered about all willy nilly. This would make doing Iowa stuff very hard, if not impossible. Second of all without organization it would make it hard to plan activities, and it’s important for Iowa to do plannings so they can pick the next president. That’s their job! So yes organization is a key element in Iowa cause that way there is no disarray for a miscreant to exploit and America can find out who their next president is supposed to be.

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  183. hahaha, happyfeet.

    It is annoying. It would be justice for these early states to have their delegate counts reduced.

    Perhaps that is the way to handle this. Take the 120 days prior to the convention, and at 20 days out, you get 100% of your delegates, with a percent deducted for each day prior.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  184. Oy vey!!!

    I have not the time to engage in a serious theological discussion at the moment, but I will give an illustration that some may have seen me use before (I guess if I had my own blog I could just give a link…)

    I know that light has properties that are consistent with being a particle, like an itty bitty billiard ball. I also know that light has properties which are consistent with being a wave, such as diffraction. I know that depending on a given phenomenon, one charactization or the other is a better way to describe what we see. I can cognitively understand this fact. I cannot cognitively understand exactly what this means, it is beyond my experience.

    That is to some degree an analogy of how I think about the Trinity being both “understandable yet not understandable”. Now, one can twist language so that it sounds “mystical and spiritual” but it really is void of meaning, and there may appear words that on the surface appear to be nonsense, but when properly understood point to a meaningful paradox.

    But enough of that, while we’re kind of loose to the topic, anybody have a wonderful concise reference on the viability (or lack thereof) of the SS system as it is now configured? yes, I’m in a discussion elsewhere that I can’t take the time to research but I think many people here know this offhand.
    And what about the “elected federal officials don’t participate in SS” topic?

    MD in Philly (41d33b)

  185. Outside the NE, IL, MI and the Mormon West Romney will have no wins and few seconds.

    Who knew that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints dominated politics in the western United States!?!?

    Most amusing.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  186. Okay, so Milhouse wrote: “Trinitarians believe in three gods, which are nevertheless asserted to somehow be one, in a way that isn’t comprehensible by human brains.”

    daleyrocks — quite appropriately as far as I’m concerned, as I had already advised Milhouse to quit while he was behind — responded: “More Milhouse intolerance on display.”

    Milhouse instead responded by doubling down: “How is that intolerant? Is it not a strictly factual statement?” As if “isn’t comprehensible by human brains” was somehow a measurable quantity.

    Then, apparently because an opportunity to slam Romney (or Haiku) missed is like a day without sunshine, Dustin chimed in with: “Are you seriously whining that Milhouse said about the mainstream trinity what every clergy would say?” and proceeded, along with gulrud and a circular-logic spewing Milhouse, to attempt a defense of his original comment which, if it was NOT meant as a pejorative (as Haiku said) was at the very least clumsy and unnecessary, given his protestation that “I did not raise it. I have never raised it. You’re the one constantly bringing it up.”

    Anyway, in subsequent posts Gerald A and daleyrocks gave more clarity to the issue than I ever could. And just for fun Dustin himself doubled down by saying that the primary should not be a referendum on Mormonism because Romney isn’t a ‘real Mormon’ anyway. Classy, Dustin.

    And here we are!

    Icy (cc3015)

  187. MD, I recall that metaphor now.

    Anyway The SSA themselves note that expenditures are greater than revenues now.

    Relying on very optimistic recovery, they say they will exhaust ‘reserves’ completely in 2036.

    This of course assumes SSA gets to take the wages of young folks and exhaust them.

    The outlook, and how to look at outlook assumptions are discussed pretty well here in 1.2. This whole article is very interesting.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  188. And just for fun Dustin himself doubled down by saying that the primary should not be a referendum on Mormonism because Romney isn’t a ‘real Mormon’ anyway. Classy, Dustin.

    What’s wrong with what I said, Icy?

    My point was that Romney’s faith is not relevant. One way to prove this is to show how Romney’s faith has not really led his politics in the past, such as his choices on strong gun control and abortion “rights”.

    Why say I’m not classy? You need to clarify. Also, you need to stop putting words in my mouth. I don’t know what Romney’s true views are, and that’s between him and God. That he’s flip flopped shows he’s not consistently governed by really anything, be it religion, the law, wisdom, or ideology. This is not classless, and shame on you for twisting it into some kind of bigotry, when that’s the exact opposite of what I said.

    And this:

    Then, apparently because an opportunity to slam Romney (or Haiku) missed is like a day without sunshine, Dustin chimed in with: “Are you seriously whining that Milhouse said about the mainstream trinity what every clergy would say?”

    I quoted proof I was correct. Plenty of mainstream Christians, such as myself, admit they do not comprehend the trinity, and assume they are not meant to.

    In no way did I use this as an opportunity to bash Romney. I bashed Romney, sure, but for Romneycare and other fair things to bash him for. I never associated my views on the trinity or Milhouse’s accurate and unoffensive comment with Romney at all.

    You act as though I’m being unfair to Haiku, who has gone out of his way to lie about me, insult me, and then project his dishonesty onto me.

    In this thread, Haiku explains again that he called me dishonest because I gave Perry credit for cutting education. He admits that I was right that Perry did it, and then lies that Perry had no choice but to cut that agency, thus employing projection. Why shouldn’t I respond to that, Icy?

    You’ve been sticking up for your friend with quite a degree of irrational bias for some time, Icy. I recall Haiku used a deliberately dishonest google search to prove no one is talking about a Romney dynasty after I quoted Romney personally talking about it. I showed that you can find this information on google easily and you erupted that I was ‘disingenuous’ to use google search results to suggest the importance of a subject. Only, I wasn’t the one who made that argument: Haiku was. I simply showed that his methodology was flawed, because his google search avoided any results.

    Since I explained this to you, you’ve been very prickly.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  189. As if “isn’t comprehensible by human brains” was somehow a measurable quantity.

    Saying God is both three and one identities, which is at least one view out there, is in fact something human minds can’t comprehend. It is a measurable quantity.

    Why are you intolerant of this view, Icy? Milhouse seems to be showing a lot more tolerance than you are.

    The reason is simple: you have friends and you are fighting with no reasoning beyond that.

    I’m disappointed, Icy. I’ve treated you with respect despite disagreeing with you, but apparently this is more than you’re capable of.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  190. Oh great OWS now wants loan modification for all.

    Real pathetic.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  191. Rich individuals are to blame for foreclosures……………….Screw OWS.

    I agree with the on not bailing out banks but their guy obama should be to blamed for that.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  192. them*

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  193. So does the Obama memo call out muslims.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  194. You know, plenty of people have noted that Nancy Pelosi is not much of a catholic if she’s so avowedly pro choice.

    to be honest, my gauge of what is orthodox Mormonism is imprecise, but I’ve discussed this at length with Mormons for years, and my understanding is that Mormons cherish gun ownership and are generally opposed to gun control. Also, they strongly value more children and are very opposed to abortion rights.

    Nobody’s perfect, and I’m not the judge of Romney, but it’s pretty clear from that alone that Romney is not being governed by Mormonism. I’ve said repeatedly that Mormons are good people, so there’s two reasons why Mormonism shouldn’t be relevant to this primary: they aren’t of any particular concern and Romney’s never been consistent to Mormon doctrines.

    I’m not saying shame on Romney for not being a good enough Mormon, though indeed I do think Romney was wrong for his gun tax and gun bans and his abortion rights defenses because I disagree directly with those ideas.

    This is an adult discussion. Leaping to insults, as Icy has, is not helpful at all. If Icy has a reason to disagree with me, for example if he wants to explain how I’m mistaken on the facts, for example that abortion rights and strong gun control are compatible with Mormonism, that would be an interesting and adult direction to take this.

    But no, that’s not what he wants, and this is I think the third or forth he has gratuitously gone in this direction.

    Sorry I hurt your buddy’s feelings, Icy, but Haiku is a hack and that’s well demonstrated in this thread by his ‘Perry was forced to cut education spending specifically, so you were dishonest to give him props for that’ nonsense, which I remind you, was a rant he was on for about two days straight.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  195. Also according to Obama’s logic we should keep up that embargo on cuba?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  196. Haiku is a dishonest thoughtless pig.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  197. mother jones?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  198. Those who vote for Obama should be taxed?

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  199. Dustin,

    Thanks for the links.

    I read this:
    Social Security expenditures exceeded the program’s non-interest income in 2010 for the first time since 1983. The $49 billion deficit last year (excluding interest income) and $46 billion projected deficit in 2011 are in large part due to the weakened economy and to downward income adjustments that correct for excess payroll tax revenue credited to the trust funds in earlier years.

    Please help this poor citizen who suspects he is a victim of a shell game. (Yes, I have been paying attention, enough attention to be confused).

    So SS had a deficit in 2010 of 49 billion excluding interest income…what interest income? interest income on what? only 49 billion, really?

    I thought the problem was that there was no pot of money being held to make interest. 49 billion. Is it really only 49 billion, or is it 49 billion after they did an accounting trick and hid the SS deficit in with the overall federal debt?

    God has a reason to make things too complicated for the human mind to comprehend, being God and all, but the US government has no such excuse.

    MD in Philly (41d33b)

  200. “Daleyrocks, my point is that Romney is clearly a lot more liberal than Perry, and any analysis that concludes otherwise is absurd.”

    Dustin – I’m not arguing with you over that. I’m arguing with you because your criticism meter seems to be set to selective. When Romney does something, you slam him for it, but when Perry has done the same thing, you ignore it.

    If you think Romney could have come into a deep blue state and shaved two points off government spending or revenue relative to per capita income to get it to Texas’s level, with an 85% Democrat legislature, you are living in a dream world. You seem to hold him accountable for the cost and revenue structure of that state without examining what he actually tried to do or the obstacles against him.

    You have your opinions and I’ll stick with mine.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  201. whose opinions can I have?

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  202. Keep your opinions and Rick Perry and his wife will sail into your bed naked and with angel wings.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  203. ask em to bring chockit bars!

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  204. When Romney does something, you slam him for it, but when Perry has done the same thing, you ignore it.

    You’re probably actually right to a limited extent on this, but let’s not be ridiculous. Perry has a much better plan and a much better record. Is he perfect? No. I’ve criticized him for a long time too.

    He wasn’t my first choice. Mitch Daniels was. He wasn’t my second choice. Paul Ryan was.

    Am I biased in favor of people with a proven conservative record? Probably. I suspect them less, give them a little more slack, etc.

    Guilty as charged, but largely I don’t think these two are remotely comparable. Perry has made a few bad calls, but the guy really is a great governor by and large.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  205. And I don’t think I just ignore Perry’s flaws. Some of the accusations against him I have rejected rather than ignored.

    But if I had to pick from Bachmann, Santorum, Newt, Romney, Huntsman, Paul, or Perry, Perry is basically the only one I really have much faith in. Newt is the only other one I think has the capacity. Santorum and even Huntsman have some merits, but I just don’t like them. And Bachmann has burned the bridge and Romney… I’m sorry, I do love bashing that guy for a reason.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  206. I thought the problem was that there was no pot of money being held to make interest. 49 billion. Is it really only 49 billion, or is it 49 billion after they did an accounting trick and hid the SS deficit in with the overall federal debt?

    Well, you’re right to find this perplexing. This money is just a spreadsheet. It’s not like they actually have this money saved somewhere.

    It’s really just what boomers insist I owe them. I hope my generation rises to the occasion and doesn’t leave our successors with a hot check.

    Dustin (cb3719)

  207. You’re probably actually right to a limited extent on this, but let’s not be ridiculous.

    You should have taken your advice months ago.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  208. Comment by Dustin — 12/6/2011 @ 4:14 pm

    Hey, screw the Boomers.
    We members of The Silent Generation wish to remind you that we’ve been standing in this line quite patiently (when we weren’t at the range keeping our “eye” in), and think we’ve got an accounting coming to us.

    AD-RtR/OS! (76ba29)

  209. What’s wrong with what I said, Icy?
    My point was that Romney’s faith is not relevant.

    — Sounded to me like your point was that you think Romney is not faithful to his faith.

    Icy (cc3015)

  210. You think that.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  211. I think a person’s faith is very important to the degree they have attitudes and make actions consistent with it. I don’t think Nancy Pelosi’s claim to be a Catholic is important because she is active in word and deed to promote things counter to her claimed faith.
    If Romney’s Mormonism means he values family and doesn’t drink but doesn’t plan to advocate for prohibition, that’s fine with me. If he wanted to finance some new project related to some obscure aspect of Mormon theology, that wouldn’t be so thrilling, to put it mildly.

    People think things, say things, do things. Understanding why people do whatever they do helps determine whether we want to vote for them or not. For some, any religious belief constitutes being irrational and not to be trusted. To say religious belief is or is not important in politics is too simple. The overlap of religious conviction and public policy action is what is important, IMO.

    MD in Philly (41d33b)

  212. Pelosi is catholic sorta the way I’m a porn star

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  213. Dude I didn’t need that image of you.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  214. happyfeet & Nancy’s flim:
    “Sp— On My Face, Freeze It In Place”

    Icy (cc3015)

  215. Comment by MD in Philly — 12/6/2011 @ 3:12 pm

    So SS had a deficit in 2010 of 49 billion excluding interest income…what interest income? interest income on what? only 49 billion, really?

    Interest income on all the virtual Treasury securities in the Social Security trust fund.

    I thought the problem was that there was no pot of money being held to make interest.

    One way of looking at it is to say there is no pot of money. Another way of looking at it is to ask, wher else could you out the money>?

    Sammy Finkelman (853752)

  216. Wrong, Icy… with HF and Nanski it’s “sit on my face and spray me with mace”.

    Colonel Haiku (b19539)

  217. Sammy, Sammy, Sammy-

    Please, help me understand

    virtual treasury securities“- what are those?
    Are they like the numbers I see in my on-line savings account, or like webkinz cash to buy things for my virtual webkinz in virtual webkinz land?

    Another way of looking at it is to ask, wher else could you out the money
    gone with the wind, spent, used up, wasted away, “ex-money” to misquote Monty python
    leaving behind a paper IOU from the R hand of the US govt to the L hand of the US govt

    All I know is…they say entitlements are the big problem with the budget, we’re trillions of dollars in debt, SS is a big entitlement program, doctors are not getting that rich from Medicare payments

    Under which cup is the money hidden?

    MD in Philly (41d33b)

  218. “When Romney does something, you slam him for it, but when Perry has done the same thing, you ignore it.

    You’re probably actually right to a limited extent on this, but let’s not be ridiculous. Perry has a much better plan and a much better record. Is he perfect? No. I’ve criticized him for a long time too.”

    Dustin – I disagree. I think I’m correct to a great extent. It doesn’t matter if you think one is a better candidate or not, if you are claiming to be objective in your comments as you do, they can’t come out like you’ve already stacked the deck, ignoring facts for one candidate and slamming another candidate for the same thing. There is no objectivity or fairness to that approach.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  219. “virtual treasury securities“- what are those?
    Are they like the numbers I see in my on-line savings account, or like webkinz cash to buy things for my virtual webkinz in virtual webkinz land?

    No, they’re like the IOU in Homer Simpson’s emergency doughnut stash. And every year the number on that IOU grows, as “interest earned” is added to it. So the “IOU one doughnut” is replaced with “IOU 1.1 doughnuts”, and then with “1.21 doughnuts”, etc. But at no point are there any actual doughnuts.

    Milhouse (ea66e3)

  220. You know Romneyites see smears in every little thing you say.

    Dohbiden (ef98f0)

  221. Thank you Milhouse.

    So….if somebody went up to the treasury and said “show me the money” for SS, they would be missing much more than 49 billion…

    when treasury says “excluding interest income“, is interest income actually a negative number?

    Is this like Homer still owes 1 donut, “not counting donut interest income?”

    MD in Philly (41d33b)

  222. Comment by MD in Philly — 12/6/2011 @ 7:47 pm

    Sammy, Sammy, Sammy-

    Please, help me understand

    “virtual treasury securities“- what are those?
    Are they like the numbers I see in my on-line savings account, or like webkinz cash to buy things for my virtual webkinz in virtual webkinz land?

    They are not actually printed out – they are an accounting device.

    SF: Another way of looking at it is to ask, where else could you out the money

    gone with the wind, spent, used up, wasted away, “ex-money” to misquote Monty python
    leaving behind a paper IOU from the R hand of the US govt to the L hand of the US govt

    Social Security taxes were raised in the 1980s with the claim that money raised earlier would be spent later. Now what happens with the extra tax dollars going to Social Security?

    It could be invested in something not owned by the U.S. government. But it is not guaranteed.

    http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fundFAQ.html

    How are the trust funds invested? By law, income to the trust funds must be invested, on a daily basis, in securities guaranteed as to both principal and interest by the Federal government. All securities held by the trust funds are “special issues” of the United States Treasury. Such securities are available only to the trust funds.
    In the past, the trust funds have held marketable Treasury securities, which are available to the general public. Unlike marketable securities, special issues can be redeemed at any time at face value. Marketable securities are subject to the forces of the open market and may suffer a loss, or enjoy a gain, if sold before maturity. Investment in special issues gives the trust funds the same flexibility as holding cash.

    Data on trust fund investments provide a breakdown by interest rate and trust fund for any month after 1989.

    What interest rate do the trust funds’ assets earn? The rate of interest on special issues is determined by a formula enacted in 1960. The rate is determined at the end of each month and applies to new investments in the following month.

    The numeric average of the 12 monthly interest rates for 2010 was 2.760 percent. The annual effective interest rate (the average rate of return on all investments over a one-year period) for the OASI and DI Trust Funds, combined, was 4.642 percent in 2010. This higher effective rate resulted because the funds hold special-issue bonds acquired in past years when interest rates were higher.

    What happens to the taxes that go into the trust funds? Tax income is deposited on a daily basis and is invested in “special-issue” securities. The cash exchanged for the securities goes into the general fund of the Treasury and is indistinguishable from other cash in the general fund.

    If all the income is invested, how do benefits get paid each month? Money to cover expenditures (mainly benefit payments) from the trust funds comes from the redemption or sale of securities held by the trust funds. When “special-issue” securities are redeemed, interest is paid. In fact, the principal amount of special issues redeemed, plus the corresponding interest, is just enough to cover an expenditure.

    There’s a lot of back and forth. (The Social Security Adminsitration uses the Treasury Department like a bank. In 2010 the amount bought was $1,020 billion, while the amount sold was $929 billion, so $91 billion was added in I.O.Us.

    Now it would be like Homer Simpson’s stash of doughnuts if the question of how much the U.S. Treasury could borrow and how it could be repaid was not considered independently, and if it constiturted a very large fraction of all Treasury debt.

    Here is a chart:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Estimated_ownership_of_treasury_securities_by_year.gif

    The Federal government owes about half of the federal debt to itself in one form or another.

    One quarter is owned by foreign governments and other foreign entitities (this is considered the most dangerous debt)

    Note: from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

    About one quarter of that quarter is owned by China – it’s around 8% of the total. In the year 2000 it was about 6%. It wents lightly recently. they own so much because they are willing to lend it at the lowest inter3est rate.

    This adds up to 75%

    5% is owned by state and local governments. 6% is owned by mutual funds. 10% is owned by depository institutions (banks), pension funds, state and local government pension systems, insurance companies or held in the form of savings bonds.

    4% is owned by other investors.

    All I know is…they say entitlements are the big problem with the budget, we’re trillions of dollars in debt, SS is a big entitlement program, doctors are not getting that rich from Medicare payments Under which cup is the money hidden?

    Entitlements are a problem because they are growing, as the number of circumstances that qualify goes up.

    There’s a lot of waste fraud and abuse in Medicare. Medicare has very low administrative expenses – that’s one big reason.

    Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb)

  223. Painted Jaguar: Mr. Sammy Finkelman, sir, you are nearly as patient as my ever so wise, patient, and loving mummy who lives in the forest by the deep, dark, turbid waters of the Amazon.

    It would bring a smile to your face if you could see the look of perplexion on the visage of MD. I think he must look as I did when I was in the midst of that armadillo affair (shudder).

    The last intelligible thing I heard him say (before he trailed off into low mumbling) was, “Lending money to myself, owing myself money…hm, how would that work? What would I do if I decided not to pay myself back…Is this a Dr. Who Time Lord thingy?”

    Hmm, he just muttered “Lock box”.

    He said something about a “shell game” (shudder, reminds me of armadillos again). I told him that would be no problem if he would let me help. I once saw two travelers play a “shell game” while I was ever so quietly lurking in a tree branch above. I told MD, “MD, 3 shells are used in a shell game, correct? Well, I have one handsome paw with wonderfully sharp claws to swipe the shell on the right, another handsome paw with wonderfully sharp claws to swipe the shell on the left, and my ever so handsome face with bright white fangs (yes, they are bright white for I brush and floss like my mummy taught me) (and don’t call them canines) to deal with the shell in the middle.

    I also told him he could have the donuts, as long as I get the Homer guy.

    Hmm, he just got up to go to bed, saying, “It’s a good thing Paul Ryan is in the house”.

    Mr. Finkelman, kind sir, I am worried for him. I’ve looked up and down, high and low, inside and out, and still can’t find any sign of a “Paul Ryan” in the house…

    MD in Philly (41d33b)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.9170 secs.