Patterico's Pontifications

10/5/2011

Will Perry Change Course?

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 3:07 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Amid poor debate performances and slumping poll numbers, the answer to be found from McClatchy is “probably not”:

In 2006, [top Perry consultant Dave] Carney hired four Yale University researchers, known as “the eggheads,” to rigorously study traditional campaign techniques. The result was a dramatic change in how the Perry campaign operated, said Sasha Issenberg, a journalist who in August released an e-chapter, “Rick Perry and His Eggheads: Inside the Brainiest Political Operation in America,” that’s part of his upcoming book, The Victory Lab.

“They ran these large-scale political versions of drug trials,” Issenberg said, that measured the impact of radio and TV ads and personal appearances. “They found that when Perry traveled somewhere there was a bump in the polls, in volunteer sign-ups and contributions.” TV ads, in contrast, had only a “short-lived” impact. The findings led Carney to send Perry to small markets such as Lubbock in settings with more glad-handing opportunities.

Carney also limited Perry’s debates: He had only four debates in the last 10 years and refused to debate the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Bill White.

Carney also made sure that Perry didn’t meet with any newspaper editorial boards. The result: Perry didn’t get any endorsements from any major Texas newspapers, but he still easily defeated White.

Although McClatchy used examples from the 2010 general election, Perry also fended off challenges from the moderate establishment Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and the Ron Paulian Debra Medina in the 2010 GOP primary. (Indeed, Perry trailed Hutchison badly in early polling.)  Chris Moody describes Perry’s prior campaign as a scene from Moneyball:

At a campaign retreat before Perry’s 2006 re-election campaign, the eggheads basically told a group of consultants and strategists that their techniques were little more than a waste of time. It was like “going into the Catholic church telling everyone that Mary wasn’t a virgin, and Jesus really wasn’t her son,” Carney tells Issenberg.

“Either the eggheads are right or you’re right,” Carney told one consultant. “We’re going to prove it out, and plan our campaign and allow these guys to develop experiments for everything we do.”

Last night Issenberg emailed Politico’s Ben Smith* that Perry’s campaign seemingly remains skeptical of national media opportunities and “[o]ne of the things Carney detests about campaigns is when they lurch tactically and lose sight of their broader strategic plans.”  That’s apparent from Carney’s recent email to McClatchy at the initial link:

“This campaign is built to win delegates for the RNC convention in Tampa in 2012,” Carney said in response to McClatchy Newspapers’ questions via email. The Republican National Convention will be the week of Aug. 27. “We have been in the race for, like, six whole weeks, while some have been in the race for, like, six years. That is our focus.

“As the governor has said, we will get better every day. Our message for getting America working again and our record of job creation will be the foundation of our campaign’s success.”

The Perry campaign philosophy is also a subtext of the scoop Team Perry gave to HotAir’s Ed Morrissey regarding their Texas-size fundraising in the third quarter:

Perry had 49 days in which to raise funds, rather than the full 92 days of the quarter, a rate of about $349,000 a day.  The final debate in September didn’t hurt Perry’s fundraising rate, either.  In the 42 days prior to the Orlando debate, their rate was $323K per day; in the eight days following the Orlando debate, that escalated to $478K per day. Perry’s on-line operation did well, too, drawing in $1.1 million — despite, as my source says, not driving contributions with their on-line ads.

Best of all for the Perry campaign, the burn rate in the first seven weeks was negligible.  The campaign has $15 million cash on hand from its $17.1 million haul.  Team Perry wanted 18,000 contributors in this quarter, and finished with over 22,000.  More than 60% of their contributors donated $250 or less, which means that they can keep going back to them for more money.

Ed highlighted that the news was intended to send the message that Perry isn’t going away anytime soon.  But Team Perry is also saying that the fundraising accelerated after Perry’s widely-criticized debate performances.  That the campaign specifically broke out that data is meant to send a message to those who are focused on the debates.  That the campaign has spent a small percentage of what they have raised suggests they still believe a lot of traditional campaign spending is wasted.  Are they right?  Issenberg asks key questions on that score at the end of a NYT interview.

*HotAir link provided to observe Patterico’s Politico boycott.

–Karl

87 Responses to “Will Perry Change Course?”

  1. Ding.

    Karl (d618b4)

  2. I mostly don’t pay attention; why boycott Politico?

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  3. Politico was thuggish to College Politico for the use of the word ‘politico.’

    Dustin (b2fb78)

  4. “Don’t mess with Texas!”

    In 2008, Obama rolled out a new way of acquiring the prize, both in the Primary and General; Perry just might be doing a lightning, flanking movement around the “Maginot-Line” GOP Establishment.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  5. ah, thanks.

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  6. Carlitos, it’s too bad the organization is quite lame like that. Even though they are reliably democrat in spin, they cover quite a lot of political news that don’t get much coverage elsewhere.

    But, alas, Hot Air.

    Dustin (b2fb78)

  7. Karl

    election day polling had White and Perry within the margin of error (some polls)

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  8. Dana Perrino said eveyone’s aiting for Perry to take charge, its funny no one’s talking about Romney except he has the last man standing but no one thinks he’s gong to in

    Cains as someone said seems to be fading already

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  9. EPWJ

    Invert the keyboard and get the crumbs out from under the W.

    koam @wittier (4db764)

  10. Zogby and PPP were quite wrong there, ‘eh?

    Dustin (b2fb78)

  11. What this says isa that most of what Governor Rick Perry does either hurts his campaign or is of no use. Debates hurt him. TV ads are mostly a waste of money. Newspaper endorsements either can’t be gotten or don’t matter. What helps is personal appearances where he can recruit volunteers.

    Rick Perry’s strategy therefore is:

    Six Degrees of Separation

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation

    See also:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon

    That is:

    Arrange to be no more than six steps, and preferably no more than 3 or 4 steps, from every voter in the United States. Or any rate get significantly closer to more coters than any other candidate.

    This might work in New Hampshire, and maybe in Iowa if you had a year or two (Jimmy Carter did that) and maybe even in Texas if you’ve been Governor for 10 years, but it might be hard to make this work in the whole United Sattes.

    Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb)

  12. CNN reporting Palin has issued statement to Mark Levin this evening confirming she is not running for president. Adjust course accordingly.

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  13. This might work in New Hampshire, and maybe in Iowa if you had a year or two (Jimmy Carter did that) and maybe even in Texas if you’ve been Governor for 10 years,
    but it might be hard to make this work in the whole United Sattes.

    Except that it did work in TX where he had only been Gov for 6-years (2006); and, do you have any other explanation as to why he was able to raise so much money in such a short period of time.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  14. Off-topic … Andrew Breitbart stomped stupid racist Jew-hating Tommy Christopher’s ugly white a** earlier today ….

    http://twitter.com/#!/andrewbreitbart/

    Maybe I should be a little kinder & gentler …. nah!

    Miranda (4104db)

  15. There are no indications he will change course and – although it’s early – his supporters had better start coming to terms with another candidate, because it’s all downhill from here for Mr. Perry.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  16. Perry cannot sidestep debates.Money cannot hide his lack of verbal dexerity. It won’t work. Who ever the GOP nominee will have to debate Obama, probably more than once.Parenthetically it would be a new and woderful experience to have a GOP candidate who can ut senttences and words together explaining the limited government ideals promlugated in the Constitution. Instead we’ll get slower socialism,statism and crony capitalism with different cronies-the Bushes, Dole, McCain. If the GOP candidate ducks debates the public and press will react negatively. And that is how it should be. Further Perry has to get better in any future debates for the GOP nomination. Otherwise SNL Alec Baldwin as Perry napping on the podium will be the lasting image, and insuling Amiricans wou believe in immigration enforcement his campaign’s eptaph; heartless indeed.

    Bugg (ea1809)

  17. Perry doesn’t need to change course. He needs to get better.

    Cain’s new support is not deep. Perry could regain most of the people he’s lost. Cain’s never won an election, and has only run in one; Perry’s never lost one, and has run in dozens.

    Perry has gotten demonstrably better as a politician over the last 20 years. He’s underperformed expectations by a large margin; the thin silver lining of that cloud is that he’s certainly adjusted people’s expectations. He’s still well positioned to be the “non-Romney” candidate in ways neither Cain nor anyone else can match, including money and organization.

    This primary isn’t going to be decided any time soon, and it’s still not too late for a surprise entrant.

    (Draft Paul Ryan.)

    Beldar (4fa931)

  18. Bugg… re: that post #17… are you in the throes of a stroke?

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  19. Interesting that there doesn’t appear to be much interest in Perry here…

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  20. Comment by Bugg — 10/5/2011 @ 5:10 pm

    Will they allow TOTUS to sub for POTUS?

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  21. Or, as Burt Reynolds is said to have said to Clint Eastwood as they were comparing reasons why they were both fired by the same studio on the same day:

    I can always learn to act, but you’ll still be ugly!

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  22. I disagree with you about Perry, ColonelHaiku. There are ups and downs in every campaign. Perry has a strong record, solid money support, experience running for office and governing, and a good campaign team. His campaign is not over.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  23. DRJ, to paraphrase John Paul Jones, has he even begun?

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  24. DRJ… I think, for all intents and purposes, Perry’s campaign may be beyond the recoverable stage.

    This race may indeed already be Mitt Romney’s to lose. I, for one, hope that he doesn’t.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  25. ColonelHaiku,

    You may be right but my guess is it’s also wishful thinking on your part. Can you think of any similar GOP candidates whose campaigns ended this early? Fred Thompson is the only one that comes to my mind, but lackluster fundraising is what ended his campaign. That could happen to Perry but it hasn’t yet.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  26. It is a three-way race, at this time; now without the Palin distraction.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  27. Fred Thompson is the only one that comes to my mind, but lackluster fundraising is what ended his campaign. That could happen to Perry but it hasn’t yet.

    Just heard Republican strategist Noelle Nikpour say that all of the money that was going to go to Christie is now going to Romney… the pipeline is OPEN.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  28. I could be wrong, it’s happened before. I respect Roger Kimball and I just heard him say he thinks Perry is toast and I rewound Nikpour’s comment and she says these are big money people that are all (her emphasis) going for Romney now that Christie has declined.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  29. Karl said that last night, ColonelHaiku, and money is important for candidates like Perry who don’t have personal wealth, but money isn’t Romney’s problem and never has been. Romney has loaned his campaign millions in the past and can do so again. McCain was trailing Guiliani and Romney in fundraising in mid-2007 but he still won the nomination. What Romney needs is support, especially the votes of all the people you’re attacking tonight. How are you helping him?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  30. Who am I attacking? I made a stupid joke at Johnson’s expense and, in hindsight, it shouldn’t have been made. Happyfeet got the same stuff he dishes out several times a night.

    I said retire05 told a lie, which it was.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  31. here is a song Mr. Haiku it’s from the faraway land of France from the faraway time of the 1960s, which was like fifty years ago

    it’s a very cool song I enjoy to hear it

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  32. There’s no reason to settle on a team R. candidate right now. It’s fine to play the field for a few more months to see what all transpires in the world, and who improves, and who can stand up best in the national pressure cooker without melting or exploding. It’s like high school. If one guy’s family has a summer cottage in Wisconsin and another guy has a red mustang—why not get to know them both better? No reason to commit yourself to just one before you have to.

    elissa (6a6d2d)

  33. I agree, elissa. There’s still plenty of time to see if Perry gets better, if Romney gets better (which is not the same way that Perry needs to), and if Cain can take the heat with his lack of experience. No reason to make accusations or push back too hard. Nothing is settled.

    It is interesting, however, to note the seeming disappearance of Bachmann…she is rarely on the front page any more. Honestly, I can’t remember the last thing I read about her…maybe the Gardasil nonsense…

    Dana (4eca6e)

  34. DRJ

    Thompson was and maybe still is battling cancer during that election – what Fred couldnt stomach was Huckabee’s lying nd getting millions in constant free interviews and all Fred ever heard was that he was some actor from Fox, because he was on a rival network

    Thats the scuttle here in West Tennessee

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  35. It is interesting, however, to note the seeming disappearance of Bachmann…she is rarely on the front page any more. Honestly, I can’t remember the last thing I read about her…maybe the Gardasil nonsense…

    She has fallen way behind in raising money, which isn’t important.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  36. she lost her head campaign douche

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  37. he’s some short fat guy with a taller younger wife

    I saw him on the internet

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  38. Colonel Haiku, It will certainly become important, and very soon. IIRC, there is no SuperPAC for her as there is Romney, Cain and Perry. She is fading quickly and I’m not sure if it was the whole Gardasil thing and her foolish statements, or if she’s just been overshadowed by more robust and publicly interesting figures. No matter, she seems to be floundering.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  39. Dana

    I dont think it was that – she has the stigma of being a representative, lower recognition more defined by the media than by her own actions – Santorum has the same problem – has he dropped out yet?

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  40. Who are you attacking? happyfeet and Gary Gulrud and Eric, or at least his friends. And I think comments like your #36 are in bad faith because you imply that I said money isn’t important. Money is important, but not as important at this point for candidates like Romney who have access to their own money.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  41. I’m convinced that money is not important. The comments I’ve made are much less incendiary than the comments I read by many posters.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  42. Anyways, tomorrow’s a new day and let’s hope it’s less contentious.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  43. My earlier point was you’re hurting your own guy by attacking people who you may someday want to support him. Responding that someone else does it worse than you is thin gruel.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  44. It will be less contentious because I’m not going to argue with you about it anymore. I’d like to see a Republican win but I’m not going to spend anymore time defending Romney or trying to help his supporters.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  45. DRJ a word please?

    romney's checkbook (3c92a1)

  46. I’ve had to swim through swill and attacks on Romney’s religion and character, with nary a peep out of any of the mods.

    I’ll remember that it’s all whose ox is gored.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  47. I’m sorry, romney’s checkbook, but I just gave a nice donation to SarahPac and there’s nothing left for you.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  48. DRJ

    The Col is a good man who is worried sick about the next election – I understand and appreciate what you are saying but I chalk it up and Blame Obama for the strife on the Republican side as we are worried that we are passing up an generational opportunity to have a team in the white house, and the the congessional houses to fix some terrible wrongs

    The Col is a victim as I am and many others – the source of anger isnt us but him, that man in the chair who has utter contempt for the institutions that enabled him to sit there in the first place

    But thanks for your class and when are you going to start writing again?

    Like I said I wont comment on your threads

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  49. Fair enough. Your heart wasn’t in it anyway.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  50. Patterico and Stashiu3 are the only moderators I know of, ColonelHaiku, and I haven’t seen either of them in the comments section in several days. But if you think you’re being mistreated, you should immediately email Patterico -at- Patterico.com. He doesn’t routinely read all the comments but he likes to be notified via email of any problems.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  51. Thank you, Mr. Johnson and I apologize for that stupid joke.

    We all need to focus on removing the current occupant of the Oval Office. I get caught up in the “eating our own” atmosphere and I will refrain from that in the future.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  52. is #49 a comment or a Lifetime movie pitch?

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  53. Sorry to go off-topic (I’ll make this brief), but I felt that I owe an apology to this community for starting that stupid brawl on the other thread. Having stepped away for a bit and let my head cool off, I can see how obnoxious I was being. Combination of a very bad mood and a few too many odd turns in my thinking, but I shouldn’t have inflicted it on you guys. Elissa asked if I was venting, and the answer is, yep, and probably a heckuva lot more than I realized. The scorn and distaste that people served back was rather justified, I have to admit.

    When a person gets as tetchy as I got, it’s probably a sign to stop blogging for a while, so I’m going to take a vacation from this sort of thing. Good wishes to the rest of you though, this is a very interesting community of writers. Be well.

    d. in c. (a8209a)

  54. Secret service caught another protestor jumping over the White house fence but after 45 minutes of intense questioning the service was satisfied that the jumper was going to go back and serve the remainder of his term

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  55. No complaints on my part, DRJ. The only complaint I was going to raise was when I read that insult to your reputation made by one “doh biden”.

    I like to think I can dish it out as well as I take it.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  56. happyfeet… Eric just doesn’t know the real me, lol.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  57. ok but if you need a hug you just ask ok?

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  58. Col

    I think Dohbiden was talking about Bachmann in that comment not DRJ

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  59. 41. Mother B. is my rep and is TEA approved, i.e., she gets good grades on her stances. Call her a favorite daughter at this point.

    No I don’t think she’ll bounce back. Whether Cain or Perry would seem to be the question.

    Whether Romney is bagged, cold and rigid.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  60. I’ve had to swim through swill and attacks on Romney’s religion and character, with nary a peep out of any of the mods.

    And those attacks have generally been met with attempts to defend Romney.

    In fact, sometimes I’m the one doing the attacking, and sometimes I’m the one doing the defending.

    It’s difficult for me, because I think Romney very well could be the nominee, so I want to reserve the option to support him. I don’t want to flip flop on him. But I really do fundamentally doubt he’s a man of principles. If someone passionately swears to never waver, and indeed they waver just as soon as there’s pressure to do so, I just lose respect for the person.

    The best response is not moderation, but thoughtful defense of Romney’s character. I would never dream of going to the mods when someone bashed Perry. If the attack is unfair, I assume it will backfire anyway.

    Anyway, it’s a long slog yet, particularly for the Romney fan. I predict Perry’s fiscal discipline is dry powder.

    Dustin (b2fb78)

  61. … with nary a peep out of any of the mods.
    I’ll remember that it’s all whose ox is gored.
    Comment by ColonelHaiku — 10/5/2011 @ 8:11 pm

    I’ve emailed a couple of folks about this, but I’ve been mostly out for the past several days. I’ve only been scanning the comments for blatant trash and may have missed the more nuanced stuff. I’ve slapped down the anti-Mormon crap on several occasions, no matter who it was. My apologies if I missed something truly offensive.

    O/T (sort of): The reason I’ve been out is my mother died suddenly of cancer Saturday afternoon. Nobody had any idea beyond her being “under the weather” for a couple of weeks. She got the scans showing cancer throughout her body on Saturday morning while she was still talking, was semi-conscious by lunch, and died in the late-afternoon.

    I will be just scanning for a while, so if I miss something, email me or Patterico. No matter who you are. I owe a couple of folks emails and I hope they forgive me if I take a few more days before I get back to them.

    Stashiu3 (601b7d)

  62. I’m so sorry, Stashiu. I don’t even know what to say.

    I’ll say a prayer for your family.

    Dustin (b2fb78)

  63. Oh good heavens, Stashiu, I’m so sorry for your loss. Please accept my condolences, I’ll keep you and your family in my prayers.

    reader (dacc41)

  64. So if Gorebull warming is happening shouldn’t the libs give up their SUVs and private planes?

    Crappyfeet must have taken her gardasil shots because your tarded.

    The nuclear powerplants generate our electricity you luddite hypocrites.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  65. Sorry to hear your mom died of cancer.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  66. Sorry to hear of your loss, Stashiu3, and such a shock.

    Don’t worry about us, except when you want a momentary diversion.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  67. Stashiu3 – Sad news. Family comes first.

    Take care.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  68. Stashiu, Sorry.
    Been there, and it’s never easy.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (65a0b7)

  69. My sincere condolences, Stashiu. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  70. So sorry for your loss, Stashiu,

    ian cormac (ed5f69)

  71. Stashiu3–Losing a loved one is hard under any circumstances. But when it comes suddenly and without any time at all for mental preparation, it’s even harder. So sorry to hear about your mom.

    elissa (950e92)

  72. Stashiu3,

    prayers for you and your family

    EricPWJohnson (2925ff)

  73. That’s some interesting information on how Perry’s campaign was run. I wonder how many of their techniques would work for anyone, versus how many worked because Perry was the candidate?

    Just goes to show you that there’s always room for creative thinking…

    Tex Lovera (30e140)

  74. Prayers and more prayers for you, Stashiu. I will keep your family in my prayers.

    felipe (2ec14c)

  75. I’m sorry, Stashiu. She was clearly a very strong person, like her son.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  76. My prayers and condolences, Stashiu, for you and your family.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  77. You know, it is easy to get irritable about some of the shenanigans here online…and then you hear about Dave Surls’ situation with his mother, or Stashiu3 losing his own mother.

    My condolences to both. This is an awful way to be reminded of what is truly important.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  78. And notice that while Stashiu3 deals with this, he still is trying to clean up nonsense from others.

    There are some remarkable people who post here.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  79. Just wanted to thank everyone again for all the good wishes and prayers. My mom passed away at about 2 A.M. this morning (Hawaii time), very peacefully, and painlessly, with myself and my siblings by her side.

    My condolences to Stashiu. I’ll say a prayer for your mom (and you, and your family).

    Dave Surls (28f866)

  80. Thoughts and prayers are with you and yours, Dave Surls.

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  81. Gosh bible hating leftards are sickening.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  82. I’m very sorry for your loss Dave, you are in my thoughts and prayers

    EricPWJohnson (2a58f7)

  83. Dave – Sad news but good that family could be there together for her.

    Thoughts are with you and your family.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  84. Dave Surls–Peace at the end is about as good as it can get. Condolences to you and to the others she loved and left behind.

    elissa (288b43)

  85. My family will have your family in our prayers tonight, Mr. Surls.

    Simon Jester (c90b2f)


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