Ed Morrissey says the district has been held by Democrats since the days of Warren G. Harding. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s spin? It’s a “difficult district for Democrats.”
When I confront spin like that, I am reminded of the line from “The Princess Bride”: “Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.”
Thanks to J.D.
Pronounced "Patter-EE-koh"
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I guess it’s kind of like Texas having always been a Republican state.
509th Bob (96a8a6) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:31 amThis seat produced Geraldine Ferraro, Chuckie Schumer, and Weinertweeter. Really tough for Dems. DWS is dummrer than a sack of tifosas.
JD (43e42e) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:35 am‘That word you are using, doesn’t mean what you think it does’
ian cormac (ed5f69) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:40 amIn her defense, she is vaccinated against HPV. Probably retarded.
Dustin (b2fb78) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:40 amDoes anyone really care what the various spokespeople/asshats for President Millstone say anymore?
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (3f66af) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:47 amThe deeply sad part is that BHO would toss any one of these supporters under his metaphorical bus in a heartbeat.
So they are showing such loyalty for what?
As I say: kind of sad.
Simon Jester (c8876d) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:48 amPatterico, I think that when Debbie uses “difficult,” this comes to mind:
http://youtu.be/G2y8Sx4B2Sk
I believe that Jake Tapper knew Jay Carney for many years as a colleague. You can see the disdain on his face, watching an old friend lie so baldly and badly.
Simon Jester (c8876d) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:50 amIn 1984, Mondale got 68% & crushed Reagan (only 31%) in Brooklyn…even though Reagan won traditionally Democratic NY State, by a huge margin, 54% to 46%. Nationally Reagan 59%, Mondale 41%.
Needless to say, NY09 is a very, very Blue district.
And Debbie is a shameless liar.
koam @wittier (9730e4) — 9/14/2011 @ 8:54 amObama beat McCain 79% to 20% in Brooklyn.
koam @wittier (9730e4) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:14 amSome of these guys probably fantasize about taking the ride under the bus to show their loyalty for Dear Leader.
John Edwards also had people willing to ruin their lives for him.
I agree it’s pretty tough to understand.
My understanding is that they are not going to redistrict this seat out of existence, because it’s no longer a D seat and there’s some kind of deal? Anyone familiar with this?
Dustin (b2fb78) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:19 amThere are lots more of these “difficult districts” than there used to be. Apparently, CALIFORNIA’s approval for Obama is only 46%. If he loses here, he could lose everywhere (except DC).
290 votes in the House would be good.
Kevin M (563f77) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:22 amWanna see Obama approval in IL & HI.
koam @wittier (9730e4) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:25 am#7, “And Debbie is a shameless liar.”
And water is wet, the sky is blue, and passing Barack Obama’s new Jobs Bill will prevent unemployment from reaching 8%. Honest Indjin!
PS: Obama never heard a discouragin’ bigoted racist word in Reverend Wrong’s church.
Eric Holder didn’t know a thing about his Department’s gun-running program, and
Valerie Jarett didn’t know Van Jones was promoting communist economic policies under the guise of Green Jobs.
ropelight (dada1c) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:29 amObama beat McCain 55-44 in NY-9, and Gore and Kerry also led there (although Gore ran in a NY9 with different boundaries).
Dems have won this seat by large margins for some time now. Wasserman-Schlitz needs to sober up.
Kevin M (563f77) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:30 amI neglected to mention that Global Warming is caused by TEA Party rabble rousers.
ropelight (dada1c) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:38 am“…Obama’s new Jobs Bill will prevent unemployment from reaching 8%…”
That might be correct.
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (3f66af) — 9/14/2011 @ 9:43 amThere is a very good chance that the provisions of his bill will maintain UE at 9+% until he leaves office.
If this is a bellwether, here is what I’d like to know…
Who does Turner resemble more: Romney or Perry? (I’m asking honestly, I know nothing about Turner.)
My theory is that Romney (visibly smart, Massachusetts Blue credentials, experienced businessman) won’t scare the Dem horses so mnuch, and therefore he’ll suppress Dem turnout and even flip a few voters.
Perry will be painted as Bush II/Yosemite Sam/dumb as a rock, and will inflame leftists to turn out in hordes to vote against him. OTOH he’ll also energize parts of the GOP base, so….?
Does the Turner victory bear any semblance to either of these models? Is it a good test case, or is it sui generis?
d. in c. (68ff46) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:12 amWhat has that got to do with this district?
Not true, at least for presidential races. I don’t have the stats for ’84, and in any case the boundaries have shifted over the years, but I’d be astounded if Reagan didn’t carry the areas that now make up NY-9. Of course all the other races that day would have gone heavily D. I actually spent that election day handing out Republican material outside a polling place in what was then NY-13 but is now NY-9. Almost everyone I spoke to was voting for Reagan, but for no other Republican.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:14 amMr. Turner promised to be a vote for repealing obamacare.
Plus he’s 70 so he’s not trying to make a career of this.
And that is a very auspicious fact set.
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:16 amD in C, image wise, I don’t think Turner is much like either the two.
Otherwise, I think Turner is more like Romney in rhetoric and politics.
I think other polls also reflect that Romney does better in that specific district than Perry. In fact, I think Romney edges Obama there, and Perry slightly loses.
But in Perry’s defense, we will not win NY in the general election. Battlegrounds are Florida, Ohio, Penn, VA. Perhaps we’ll knock out some rust belt, but if blue states are in controversy, we already won anyway.
However, your question is the important one. We need to elect the most conservative guy who can win.
Dustin (b2fb78) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:19 amCalifornia is totally in play I think if Mr. Perry has the cash.
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:30 amYes. You do realise, don’t you, that Brooklyn is a lot bigger than just one district? It has 2.5 million people, most of whom are black and/or Hispanic.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:32 amThat does surprise me.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:34 amHe is involved with the TEA Party movement, so my guess is Perry. But I don’t really know.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:35 amI definitely think Turner’s rhetoric on entitlements is more Romney than Perry. He steadfastly opposes, for example, privatizing social security.
Turner also supports health care reform at the federal level, but wants to modify Obamacare to be less burdensome on businesses (I don’t think he was very clear how).
I mean, the guy just got elected in Brooklyn, so we shouldn’t be too distraught by that.
You know who Turner reminds me of? Anthony Weiner in 2004, before I knew he was a degenerate.
Dustin (b2fb78) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:40 amGreetings:
Sometimes there just isn’t enough gerrymandering in the world to save your seat.
11B40 (d6e558) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:43 am“We should never despair, our situation before has been unpromising and has changed for the better, so I trust, it will again.
If new difficulties arise, we must only put forth new exertions and proportion our efforts to the exigency of the times.”
–George Washington, letter to Philip Schuyler, 1777
H/T- The Patriot Post
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (3f66af) — 9/14/2011 @ 10:49 amMilhouse, I only reported the nums I could find. All indications are that Dems hold firmly in that district and county. I think we’d have to buy district data for older elections…and of course it has been redistricted…so very hard to reconstruct even with full data. But county data is available and easy to get. At the county level, in NYC, all but Staten Island are strong Dem., long term.
Your story about a precinct is interesting…I’m sure there are pockets that vote against the district.
Nevertheless, Obama won NY09 by 11% less than 3 years ago.
koam @wittier (9730e4) — 9/14/2011 @ 11:07 amA difficult district for Dems, she says?
Well, what else would you expect from a member of the reality-biased community?
ras (be1e0d) — 9/14/2011 @ 11:26 amAll indications are that Dems hold firmly in that district and county. I think we’d have to buy district data for older elections…and of course it has been redistricted…so very hard to reconstruct even with full data.
Gerrymandered and manicured to stay that way, forever. No matter what the mood of the voter.
papertiger (e55ba0) — 9/14/2011 @ 11:36 amI am reminded of the line from Time Bandits:
“You are so mercifully free from the ravages of intelligence” DWS.
eaglewingz08 (75427d) — 9/14/2011 @ 12:56 pmFor that matter, it’s becoming a difficult country for Democrats.
Amphipolis (b120ce) — 9/14/2011 @ 1:28 pmFeminist pigs strongarmed Walmart.
🙄
DohBiden (d54602) — 9/14/2011 @ 1:35 pmNew Yorks water is for crap because the leftards didn’t practice what they preached.
DohBiden (d54602) — 9/14/2011 @ 1:51 pma difficult district for Democrats?
Yes, it’s so partisan that it ranks 283rd on the list of Most-Republican Districts!
With trends like that, the Dems need to worry that they might be looking, in the 113th Congress, at the smallest caucus in the last hundred-years.
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (3f66af) — 9/14/2011 @ 1:56 pmWhat the Democrats don’t want people to realize is hiw easily or at least how possible, it would be to win many seats if only it was tried.
The Democratic Party knows this and they do try and have won many Republican seats since at least the 1980s..The Almanac of American Politics once wrote in the 1980s, I think in a profile of Tomny Coelho, that if took all House seats (in the 1980s, when throughout there were strong Democratric majorities) a majority had been won by a Republican at one time or another. I am not sure exactly when this was written and where but it was written befiore the 1994 election.
Many seats were always vulnerable.
This spin by Debbie Wasserman Schultz is so amazing you wonder how she said it. Is she so ignorant she might believe that? Does she think other outside the city are so uninformed they might think so?
The spin in New York, which started a few days before the election, was that David Weprin was a weak candidate. I don’t think he was, and Turner was a worse candidate. Weprin was better, or more in tune with the district than most white Democrats in New York City – I mean Nadler, Ackerman, Crowley and we can add Carolyn Maloney and Elliot Engel. Everybody else, if chalelnmged, would have looked bad too.
This was maybe the weakest House seat in New York City for Democrats one containing Staten Island, but Weiner I think got just over 60% of the vote in November 2010, and he had weaknesses not known to most people outside the district. Various people had encountered him and so on. Not enough to lose an election but enough to cost him a few percentage points. The usual Democrat might get over 80%. And such a Democrat can lose.
The only weakness that Weprin had as a candidate(that would not be shared by most other candidates, so I am excluding things like intellectual incoherence or fact mistakes) was that he had not previously represented or campaigned in almost anyplace in the district.
There was another factor. He was a meber of the New York State Assembly. He would not cast independent votes. One thing that 40 some Rabbis attemopted to make an issue wass his vote in favor of gay marriage They actually withdrew tgheir letter when Truner indicated he didn’t wnat it. But I think it affected repoirters. Because it became an accusation that he would vote for anything his party leaders told him to.
Another thing that probably happened was false and misleading campaign ads or direct mail.Only in that way was Weporinm a bad candidate but all of that came from outsiders who were running his campaign.
Another idea they try to push is don’t campaign in areas they are strong – after all it will inmcreasde turnout. That is actually the best p;lace to campaign, and if the race is close they will push turnout high bthemselves. In the end Democrats were trying to push turnout higher amonmg voters who hadn’t been affected much by by the campaign. By the way I do think there was a slightly lower tendecny to vote for Turner among people who knew a lot about him.
A big factor by the way was enthusiasm and teh desire to send a message which was posisble because this was a by election which sometimes works a loit like a oprimary. See Scott Brown.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 9/14/2011 @ 2:25 pmCharles Johnson screaming like an idiot-I love you Barack Obama.
DohBiden (d54602) — 9/14/2011 @ 2:26 pmdws is lying. She must know–mustn’t she?–that everybody knows better and that everybody who heard her knows she’s lying.
Richard Aubrey (cafc94) — 9/14/2011 @ 2:34 pmWhat is in it for her to tell everybody she’s a liar?
Is there some underground political stream of money (ed. of course, you idiot) that pays you no matter how much you screw up? No matter that you give one more reason not to trust your party?
I just don’t get it.
Ed Morrissey says the district has been held by Democrats since the days of Warren G. Harding
And I read 1922. Is whoever is saying this saying this is the same district that was held by Emmanuel celler from 1922 to 1972? There’s been a whole lot of redistricting since 1968 (when Emmanuel celler and Edna F. Kelly were thrown into the same district after a black district was created that was won by Shirley Chisholm) and I don’t know if there is even a single block that was in that district the whole time.
Here’s one person who posted letters from the different members of Congress that represneted him from 1966 to 1970, when theer was a great deal of litigation about reapportionment:
http://who-will-kiss-the-pig.blogspot.com/2011/03/letters-to-richard-grayson-from.html
In the 1980’s when Charles Schumer represented it, this distruct consisted of the eastern half of the more Jewish (and white) section of Brooklyn,. I think it acquired some territory in queens in the 1990s and after the year 2000, well over the majority of the district was in Queens and Anthony Weiner himself moved to Queens,
although the southernmost portion of Brooklyn, which was Anthonmy weiner’s original home base, remained in the district.
The boundary between the eastyeren and the western portion has more or less remained the same since the 1980s, but the western portion of the areas where many Jews resided, was merged with the upper west side of Manhattan. You may think that was bad, but the district before, the 13th, even looked like a gerrymander.
Theer is a area in Brooklyn where you can walk therough five Congressional districts in little more than a mile.
And only the League of Women Voters has published a map and that one is hard to read and doesn’t have all the streets labeled.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 9/14/2011 @ 3:05 pmI didn’t mean to make that all italics.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 9/14/2011 @ 3:05 pmIn 1984, Mondale got 68% & crushed Reagan (only 31%) in Brooklyn…even though Reagan won traditionally Democratic NY State, by a huge margin, 54% to 46%. Nationally Reagan 59%, Mondale 41%.
In 1984, if Lew (Yehuda) Levin had only run a better campaign, Stephen Solarz could have lost his race for re-election. Levin just didn’t reach the entore district. But I remember putting up Reagan/Levin signs – of course poeiople understood that as a Reagan sign – and one old I guess Italian woman somewhere around 82nd Street and 15th Avenue – I don’t really remember, but it
was Dyker Heights somewhere, even said to us something taht indicated that was right.
Solarz got I think just barely over 50% in Boro Park that year. Which of course is stuilkl winning.
Later I once heard him on the radio claiming that
what his opponent got was the normal Republican vote and many Democrats in Conmgress would give their eyeteeth to have a district where they got 62% of the vote. Previous elections ahd been something like 82%.
Although what got Yehuda Levin into the race was a gay rights bill Solarz had sponsored, which caused Rabbi Avigdor Miller to run against him (it was an issue just like this year, although in 1984 it was a bill Solarz sponsored as a throwaway that was never going to pass, and this year it a vote and a speech giving even religious reasons for a gay marriage bill that passed) a bigger factor probbly was foreign policy because I think Solarz discovered there were problems when he talked to various Rabbis in Boro Park wanting their endorsement. His district has the most refugees from Communism – also Holocaust survivors – than any district in the country.
He almost lost Borough Park. Although the opposition candidate, Lew (Yehuda) Levin got into it because of a gay rights bill that Solarz had championed – which happened to disturb Rabbi Avigdor Miller – what really was hurting him was foreign policy and the anti-Communism of the people (This district had the largest concentration of Holocaust survivors and refugees from Communism) So when he began talking to Rabbis there turned out not to be any very good reasons to support him and some to oppose.
There was also the fact that while he was on the Foreign Relations Committee he wasn’t on the subcommittee that dealt with aid to Israel. I chased him off the street with that. Somebody else was saying something more stupid. It probably resonated with him. I think he had porobably talked abouyt inside where he spoke.
After the election Solarz attempted to reverse some of his foreign policy except that he did it by getting behind the allies of Pol Pot and taking the rest of the Democratic Party with him.
That was his idea of anti-Communism.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 9/14/2011 @ 3:53 pmSammy, NY-09 doesn’t include Staten Island; that’s in NY-13, and is represented by a Republican, Michel Grimm.
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (3f66af) — 9/14/2011 @ 3:58 pmChuck you schumer-NY-9 is just too jooooooooooo for the democraps.
Chuck you.
DohBiden (d54602) — 9/14/2011 @ 3:59 pmKey parts of NY-09 were in Celler’s district back in ’22.
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (3f66af) — 9/14/2011 @ 4:00 pm______________________________________________
It’s a “difficult district for Democrats.”
In reality, I guess even a variety of liberals grow uneasy if they’re being — in the famous words of Obama’s former close adviser — goddamned.
However, I’m also aware of all the fools in that upstate New York Congressional district who not long ago ended up as sort of the flip side to what happened last night in NYC. IOW, any number of people — regardless of party affiliation — may have a surprising tolerance for being goddamned before they sit up, yelp and cry “uncle.”
Mark (411533) — 9/14/2011 @ 5:03 pmIt’s just a flesh wound!
Black Knight Debbie Blabbermouth Schultz (daf1dc) — 9/14/2011 @ 6:29 pmSome analysis suggests the Nevada result — especially Washoe County — is more ominous.
New York is going to go Demo in 2012, regardless of yesterday.
But Nevada’s electoral votes are critical to an Obama road to victory. The Nevada vote usually splits between metro Las Vegas — where 70% of the population lives — and the rest of the state.
While Nev. 2 is normally a safe GOP seat, the key in understanding the outcome is Washoe County in Nevada 2 — which is the City of Reno and suburbs.
Obama and Harry Reid both carried Washoe County by not insignificant margins, and they both won statewide as a result.
Yesterday the Dems got crushed in Nev. 2, and lost by a wide margin in Washoe County.
That’s a very bad sign for them next Nov.
shipwreckedcrew (4ae072) — 9/14/2011 @ 6:39 pmRe: Levin v Solarz in 1984. As I said, I was in the district that election day, handing out stuff for Levin outside a precinct. I was also supposed to scrutineer the count afterwards, but was given no instructions on what to look for. Levin HQ just gave me a big bag of flyers to hand out on the corner and that was it.
Solarz was caught going into precincts and handing out candy with his name on the wrapper.
And yes, a major issue in Levin’s campaign was the “Dear Commandante” letter to Daniel Ortega, that Solarz signed.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/14/2011 @ 11:58 pmAs for Rabbi Miller, yes, his books are interesting, and I used to listen to his taped lectures all the time, but he had a major bee in his bonnet about teh gay, and his protege Levin has inherited that bonnet with the same bee still buzzing away in it.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/15/2011 @ 12:00 amDebbie can’t be wrong — she’s positive about her facts! That’s why they call her …
Debbie Wasserman-Positive Schultz.
Murgatroyd (e0d30c) — 9/15/2011 @ 12:14 amWasherwoman Schlitz is just angling to replace Nanny Pelosi as the most idiotic top Democrat in Congress.
Icy Texan (924cea) — 9/15/2011 @ 3:13 amI should add that despite what Sammy and I wrote above, teh gay was not a major part of Levin’s 1984 campaign against Solarz. If it had been, I don’t think I would have volunteered for it. I vaguely recall that there was some mention of it, but it was subsumed into a lot of other stuff; the main issues that I recall were Solarz’s support for abortion and the Sandinistas. And of course it was the only seat in the area that was even remotely winnable for the Republicans, so where else was I going to volunteer? I didn’t actually find out that Levin was such a major homophobe until years later; I think he may have gone off the rails after his mentor Rabbi Miller died.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 9/15/2011 @ 11:01 amComment by Another Drew – Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! — 9/14/2011 @ 3:58 pm
42. Sammy, NY-09 doesn’t include Staten Island; that’s in NY-13, and is represented by a Republican, Michel Grimm.
I see I typed: This was maybe the weakest House seat in New York City for Democrats one containing Staten Island,
Oops. I left out a word or three. That should have been:
This was maybe the weakest House seat in New York City for Democrats except for the one containing Staten Island.
I need to take more time on this.
Michael Grimm is also in Brooklyn and he will need to gain territory because although his distruct gained population the size of a CD grew more. he will need an additional 40,000 people or so.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 9/15/2011 @ 12:25 pman additional 40,000 people or so.
Perhaps they can register the Weiners on Coney Island?
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (a63c7d) — 9/15/2011 @ 12:47 pmWell he voted against the NLRB bill, so maybe that’s the way he think he can get them
ian cormac (ed5f69) — 9/15/2011 @ 12:52 pmian, WHO?
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (a63c7d) — 9/15/2011 @ 12:57 pmGrimm, I thought that was clear.
ian cormac (ed5f69) — 9/15/2011 @ 1:00 pmI’m sorry, I just didn’t see the connection; I must be thinking of other things.
Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks ! (a63c7d) — 9/15/2011 @ 1:04 pmBut, why would Grimm vote against this bill, is he afraid of losing the cop-shop vote on Staten Island?