Unexpected unemployment: Maybe it’s the layoffs
[Posted by Karl]
Ed Morrissey performs the traditional mocking of Reuters and its clueless macroeconomists, so let me merely hypothesize why further unemployment is not “unexpected”:
Companies are laying off employees at a level not seen in nearly a year, hobbling the job market and intensifying fears about the pace of the economic recovery.
Cisco Systems Inc., Lockheed Martin Corp. and troubled bookstore chain Borders Group Inc. are among those that have recently announced hefty cuts, while recent government numbers underscore how companies have shifted toward cutting jobs.
The increase in layoffs is a key reason why the U.S. recorded an average of only 21,500 new jobs over the past two months, far below the level needed to bring down unemployment, which now stands at 9.2%.
Note the inclusion of Cisco and Lockheed; at MarketWatch, Jeff Reeves argues that layoffs in tech, aerospace and financial services point to “significantly higher unemployment in the near future, possibly over the 10% mark.”
Pres. Obama, the “greatest wet blanket to business and progress and job creation” in a lifetime, having rammed through a government takeover of the healthcare industry larded with disincentives to hire, does not help.
–Karl
The competition in Congress to see who can cut defense the most will ensure layoffs in the defense related industries. High tech is one of them. I don’t think Obama is deliberately trying to wreck the economy but I cannot see him doing anything substantial different than if he were.
This is what the Depression felt like, folks. If he were to be re-elected, it would be a decade before anything began to recover. The big difference with the Depression is that we did not have the big national debt then. This is worse.
Mike K (8f3f19) — 7/21/2011 @ 9:32 amAs many have noted, ObamaCare now estabishes a strong disincentive for any business that is below 50 employees to add jobs that would put it over 50 employees.
Thus, one key historical factor to reduce unemployment (small business expansion) has been damaged.
Unless, maybe your business can “somehow” get a waiver?
jim2 (b4ab6d) — 7/21/2011 @ 9:39 am“I don’t think Obama is deliberately trying to wreck the economy but I cannot see him doing anything substantial different than if he were.”
Mike K – Obama and his cadre of academic and professional bureaucrat advisors just don’t know any other tune than regulate and interfere. The fact that ObamaCare would “unexpectedly” put a damper on hiring required a willing suspension of disbelief from the left, especially since Nancy Pelosi was saying it would immediately create 400,000 jobs. Those may well have been government jobs to comply with all the new agencies and red tape ObamaCare created, but most people with any sense in the private sector could see it for the growth killing nightmare Democrats trying to emulatem Europe created.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 7/21/2011 @ 9:55 amI keep going back and forth on this.
It’s powerful to see these charts showing the job market was killed instantly when Obamacare passed. That’s what was predicted by any sane analysis, but the dems said they’d have to pass it so we could see what it really did. Now we know.
Anyhow, Mike, having known that Obama does associate with radicals like Ayers and Wright, and that he taught Alinsky… advocating the most cynical means of reaching socialism, and that he was a lawyer for ACORN, it’s easy to assume he does actually intend to cripple the economy, Cloward Piven style.
This is stuff many of Obama’s senior administration actually believe.
But it’s political suicide, and Obama wants to be reelected. Many thought his catering to Wright was just cynical hope to gain political support, and his networking with Ayers was similar. Maybe Obama’s not really a commie, but used commies, in other words.
My view is that Obama is indeed hoping for this kind of collapse of the US financial system, but he wanted only to get the ball rolling, and for the collapse to happen after his watch. It’s hard to roll back entitlements and pay off his deficits, but he didn’t think it would get this bad this quickly.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 9:56 amComment by Mike K — 7/21/2011 @ 9:32 am
I remember reading something (I think it was in Amity Shlaes’ The Forgotten Man, but don’t quote me on it) that Henry Morgenthau, FDR’s SecTreas,
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 10:21 amsaid in a speech to a banker/wall-street confab in about 1938-39, about how all of the stimulus spending that they undertook didn’t do a damn thing for the economy,
but did leave them with a (for the time) tremendous debt.
Unemployment numbers are up again, an increase of 10,000 lost jobs from last week’s jobless claims number, bringing today’s reported total to 418,000. Claims for unemployment compensation have stubbornly remained over the benchmark level of 400,000 for the last several months hovering well above 9%. Real unemployment is estimated to be at roughly twice the reported levels.
Here’s an example of the sort of thinking that keeps Americans unemployed and not working and paying taxes, and it’s from a company named American Airlines. (bold added)
(CBS/AP) FORT WORTH, Texas – American Airlines is buying at least 460 new planes over the next five years and splitting the order between aerospace giants Boeing and Airbus.
American’s parent, AMR Corp., said Wednesday it will buy 260 planes from Airbus and 200 from Boeing. It will also take options and purchase rights for up to 465 additional planes through 2025…
Tom Horton, president of American Airlines, told “The Early Show” on Wednesday morning that his company’s decision to split the order between Boeing and Airbus was strictly “a matter of scale.”
“We wanted to do this big and we wanted to do it quickly,” Horton told CBS News business and economic correspondent Rebecca Jarvis, defending the move to give millions in business to a European company.
“These companies have been long-standing partners of American Airlines,” said Horton. “Our needs were just so great, and we wanted to do this in such a big way, that one company, one manufacturer couldn’t fulfill our needs in the timeframe.”
Horton insisted that Boeing’s recent labor issues, which have threatened to setback their manufacturing commitments, did not play a part in his company’s decision.”
(Mr Horton has just succeeded in persuading me that his company is unworthy of my business. He can buy his planes where he will, and I’ll get my ticket to ride elsewhere.)
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 10:29 amMorgenthau quote, pg 3 of this pdf: http://www.burtfolsom.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/Morgenthau.pdf
gp (72be5d) — 7/21/2011 @ 10:29 am___________________________________________
This is what the Depression felt like, folks
I vaguely recall your expressing a bit of admiration for FDR, or indicating a willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt. If so, I wonder if external, superficial characteristics of a politician — for example, FDR’s charisma — may give him (or her) a boost he doesn’t deserve. Such a phenomenon is worth considering if Obama, at least based on various polls, still is receiving way too much positive sentiment, from too much of the populace, and way more than he deserves. Even more so since no president in modern (or non-modern) US history has ever had quite the checkered, pockmarked, ultra-liberal background of the guy now in the White House.
Mark (411533) — 7/21/2011 @ 10:39 amropelight, that’s really sad.
Indeed, I would be shocked if the way the administration has trampled on Boeing’s right to have a factory in a right-to-work state didn’t hamper their ability to promise customers products. They were already hurting. It only makes sense to hedge your bets if you need airplanes.
Obama could care less if Airbus gets business that would have gone to Boeing instead. It’s just speculation on my part, but Boeing has enough problems without the government demanding it build in a blue state with labor dues.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 10:41 am🙄 And I unexpectedly hate Obama.
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 10:53 amAnyone know where I can get a refund on my 2016 Chicago Olympics tickets?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:05 amAMR v. Boeing v. NLRB
American, as I recall, was looking to modernize its fleet of “single aisle” aircraft.
The “DreamLiner” to be built in SC is a “double-aisle wide-body”, IIRC.
Therefore, whether or not Boeing can actually open that plant, it would not seem to impact their production capability/capacity for producing “single-aisle” aircraft.
Nevertheless, it was terribly insensitive of AMR, and its Chairman, to disregard the tremendous employment problems that are being dealt with in this country,
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:19 amby placing such a large order for “durable goods” with an overseas entity.
But, what can you expect from a front office that seems to find Chicago more hospitable than the Seattle area?
First, I AM NOT DEFENDING OBAMA so save your knee-jerk calling me an Obama fan…
There’s a bunch of apples and oranges in these stories. Jobless claims (not the same as layoffs) did rise, but not as severe as depicted in the articles (based on my reading of the data, they were just as high in January of this year)
Some of Cisco’s reductions include employees who are part of a group that is being sold. Unless those employees later get fired, this lowers Cisco’s head count but doesn’t do anything to overall employment. And a bunch of their proposed cuts are of workers outside the US, which has no impact on US employment. So why cite Cisco as an example of doom and gloom? Companies screw up, and when they do, they reduce head count (often the people they hired to explore a new sector or product line). It’s normal.
Furthermore, some of the layoffs, such as those attributable to Borders, have less to do with the economy as a whole than their being victim to changes in the marketplace. Again, sad for the employees, but normal.
Finally, big companies are constantly laying off employees. Once a company gets to a certain point, it gets harder to boost profits by actually selling more, so companies often look to reducing headcount as a means of boosting the bottom line. You could go back to the middle of any economic boom and find examples of big companies reducing head count. It’s normal and part of the economic circle of life.
Again, I’m not arguing that everything is hunky-dory, but I do get bothered by supposed educated business writers who lack a basic understanding of how business really works.
And lastly, while some may get p***ed at the likes of American Airlines for not buying 100% American, they are doing the right thing by hedging their bets and owe it to their shareholders to do just that. Buying from Airbus is a way of helping protect their access to European landing slots. Diversifying purchases is a time honored best practice, at the very least, it usually results in better pricing than from sole source suppliers. And for those who are ticked off, can I assume they likewise boycott all companies that buy products from overseas manufacturers? Like Apple and every manufacturer of personal computers and electronics? Like the department stores which buy their clothing from shops in China?
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:22 amsteve – OBAMA FANBOI!!!!!!!!!
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:27 amSteve, sure, these companies are just doing what they have to in order to survive or profit.
My point is that Obama has indeed made it harder for Boeing to be competitive. They have made it harder for them to commit to the future, in an industry that really needs long term commitments. Obama has traded American prosperity for doing a favor for his union backers.
American Airlines needs airplanes, and I don’t hold it against them that their choices reflect the reality that Boeing is screwed.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:28 amlol, daley.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:29 amSure, steve, who would ever imagine that a company called American Airlines would feel the slightest responsibility buy a majority of its aircraft from an American manufacturer when unemployment in America is running at nearly 20%.
Totally unreasonable.
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:30 am“Some of Cisco’s reductions include employees who are part of a group that is being sold. Unless those employees later get fired, this lowers Cisco’s head count but doesn’t do anything to overall employment.”
steve – Layoffs do not normally include employees in divisions being sold. Are you saying Cisco misreported the numbers or journalists screwed up the interpretation? Otherwise your explanation makes no sense.
“Finally, big companies are constantly laying off employees. Once a company gets to a certain point, it gets harder to boost profits by actually selling more, so companies often look to reducing headcount as a means of boosting the bottom line.”
Yes, companies cut employees all the time, but they don’t do it for sh*ts and giggles automatically because they get big as you suggest. Most companies look at the latest popular consulting or business school buzzwords which are really nothing more than the latest spin on common sense and look to improve the efficiency of their processes. That may or may not include layoffs at any point in time and is not unique to an expansion.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:37 amAMR:
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:39 amBy sourcing from both Boeing and Airbus, they have two parts and service streams to deal with.
It is not by accident that SouthWest is the most profitable/successful airline flying today, and that their fleet is 100% Boeing 737:
They only have one type of airframe to maintain (and, I imagine that all of the engines are of the same type/manufacture too), one cabin configuration to train in and maintain, none of the crews have to wonder when they show up for work “Where will I find x stowed?
By simplifying all of the support/training costs, you can save a lot of money which can translate into lower fares for the consumer, and bigger dividend checks for the stockholders.
AD – I would submit that having only one type of airframe is not the sole reason for Southwest’s success.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:43 amHot stewardesses are the key to their success ….
/ducks flying Jimmie Choo
JD (318f81) — 7/21/2011 @ 11:46 amI get where you’re coming from, but can they get the planes they need? I worry it’s a gamble to rely on Boeing. It’s not fair to American workers, but Obama’s administration has compromised their already slow process.
My problem with Airbus is I think they make crappy aircraft.
Americans manufacture the best stuff if we’re talking about critical sophisticated machines like an airplane. We don’t even need a ‘buy American’ campaign for that. We just need government to get out of the way.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:06 pmAnd Southwest is unique in that they’re able to use only one airframe. Can you imagine trying flying a 737 from NY to Tokyo?
US airlines were buying from Airbus long before Obama got elected and the NLRB tried screwing Boeing. To me, it looks like American splitting its order is more of the same and less a specific reaction to Obama.
American Airlines obligation is to its shareholders, customers and employees, they don’t owe anything to Boeing’s workers, nor should they. If for whatever reason Boeing can’t convince American to give Boeing 100% of its order, that is Boeing’s fault – and problem, not AA’s. So boycott AA all you want, it’s more legroom for the rest of us.
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:19 pmComment by daleyrocks — 7/21/2011 @ 11:43 am
No, but it is symbolic of the thinking of top management (and IIRC it was a decision made by Herb Kelleher to limit the fleet to a single aircraft type):
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:20 pmSimplify as much as possible, and concentrate your energies on those things that directly effect the bottom line;
and on customers, customers, customers.
Unexpectedly.
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:22 pmI’m sure that if SW expanded into International, over-the-water routes, they would expand the fleet by purchasing appropriate longer-range aircraft also made by Boeing, as that simplifies the maintanance of sub-systems.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:24 pmYou know, there are quite a few type-approved 2-engine aircraft in over-the-water, International service now.
Uh… ok?
Tried?
No, it’s not. It’s Obama’s fault. There’s no argument there. He screwed with our freedom to build an airplane in a red state. He’s an SOB and he owns Boeing have a hard time getting deals now. Claiming it’s just mysterious why customers have less faith in Boeing because someone bought (much lower) numbers of Airbus crap in the past is really stretching things.
Boeing is trying to create better manufacturing that will be unhampered by union BS, which isn’t just expensive but often just plain contrary to product quality. They are being thwarted in their efforts to be a prosperous business.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:24 pmComment by JD — 7/21/2011 @ 11:46 am
The apogee of hotness for stews was reached by PSA in the 60’s-70’s.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:26 pmThose were the days!
It is Boeing’s fault that Barcky is screwing with Boeing?
JD (318f81) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:29 pmPSA ? Porn star airlines?
JD (318f81) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:38 pmsteve,
If you read the MarketWatch piece, Reeves will explain to you why the buying and selling of divisions and companies in the tech sector is a prelude to… future layoffs in the tech sector.
But who knows? Maybe those laid off won’t file for unemployment.
Karl (f07e38) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:41 pmInstapundit linked to a very short update on Honda’s upcoming jet plant. Why are they building it in America? Because this is supposedly the best place in the world to make airplanes.
But they are surprised Obama has a problem with the Aviation industry.
Honda isn’t like Airbus. They are, in many ways, an American company in part. They are designing this here and building it here, and hopefully it all works out. It’s encouraging when America takes the lead in manufacturing.
I’m not asking our politicians to cater to aviation. I just don’t know why they want to demonize it.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:42 pmOk guys, let’s play connect the dots…
American ordered what are basically upgrades to its 737 fleet (the Airbus A320). The Boeing factory in South Caroline is going to build 787s (a larger plane and used on different routes). According to Seattle papers, Boeing didn’t have its act together on how it was going to target the 150-ish passenger jet market, thus AA’s decision to split its purchase between Boeing and Airbus.
So how does Obama get blamed?
(there’s plenty to blame him on but you all lose credibility trying to blame him for everything that goes wrong in some slice of the economy).
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:43 pmKarl: there are usually layoffs after acquisition cycles. Not every deal works out and there are almost always redundancies that could be eliminated. But that doesn’t mean that overall unemployment in tech is going to go up (buyouts provide money and enthusiasm with which to start even more companies), nor does it mean that we’re on the path to 10% overall unemployment (Note: we may be but not for the reasons he cites).
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:48 pmYou lose credibility when you try to be an apologist for the bestest job killing Administration EVAH.
JD (318f81) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:49 pmAfter being in the corporate world for 30+ years I got laid off and have been unable to get rehired. So, I started a small business last year buying and flipping bank owned houses. I put my money at risk, hire local contractors – many of whom got laid off from building new houses, buy materials and appliances at Lowes, Home Depot, etc., pay sales taxes and real estate taxes, pay cities for building permits, hire local realtors and pay their commissions, then pay self-employment taxes and capital gains taxes and income taxes.
Last year the EPA made it illegal to hire any contractor that is EPA lead abatement certified to work on a property built before 1978. Guess who gets to pay for their certification classes and fees? Who gets to pay for the special, expensive haz mat steps that have to be taken to meet the EPA guidelines or face a $30,000 a day fine? Underwriting guidelines keep getting tightened to where qualifying for a mortgage is nearly impossible. And more rules are put into place such as the one requiring me to sit on a house for at least 90 days before I can start to sell it.
Now the geniuses at the new federal financial regulatory board have promulgated a new rule that essentially prohibits seller financing. And the nutcases on Capitol Hill want to reduce the mortgage interest tax deduction when people are hanging on by their fingertips to keep their houses.
I am about ready to throw in the towel. So unemployment will “unexpectedly” rise again and tax revenues will fall thanks to our exalted leaders in Washington. And these academic elitist “superstars” without a day’s work experience in the private sector will all stand around and say it is all Bush’s fault.
Can this nation survive another 4 years of this amateurism?
in_awe (44fed5) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:50 pmSpeaking of economic wet blankets–another
littlebig expensive oopsie surfaces in Obamacare.A major provision of the healthcare reform law designed to prevent businesses from dropping coverage for their workers could inadvertently leave families without access to subsidized health insurance.
The problem is a huge headache for the Obama administration and congressional Democrats, because it could leave families unable to buy affordable health insurance when the healthcare law requires that everyone be insured starting in 2014.
http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/172765-healthcare-law-may-leave-families-with-high-insurance-costs
elissa (e9a044) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:50 pmJD, this is for you…
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:52 pmhttp://www.psa-history.org/flying/stew.php
Southwest airlines
AD – I would submit that having only one type of airframe is not the sole reason for Southwest’s success.
An airline only makes money flying passengers. The biggest reason southwest airlines makes money is there planes spent a lot more time in the air carrying passengers. They waste a lot less time at the gate jacking with connecting flights, boarding passengers, etc.
Joe (e1fe5c) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:52 pmBestest? that’s the goodest thing I’ve read today.
Underwriting guidelines keep getting tightened to where qualifying for a mortgage is nearly impossible
Hyperbole. And given that a big contributor to the mess we’re in is mortgages being given to people who shouldn’t have gotten one, I have no problem with tightening the standards. No more 0% down, lie about your income loans.
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 12:58 pmI didn’t intend to say that the only reason that SouthWest is so successful is that they are a one-type air-fleet, but that that thinking was indicative of why they are successful.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:01 pmIf you want to keep the aircraft in the air hauling seats stuffed with paying passengers, you don’t want it sitting on the ramp waiting for a mechanic to show up who just happens to be type-approved for that air-frame. All of SW’s mechanics work on one type of aircraft, that can’t be said for a lot of other airlines, who have to cross-train their personnel, and have duplicate service manuals, etc.
And I think someone said that it helps SW in that the routes they limit themselves to are all appropriate for the one airframe. They’re not trying to be all things to all passengers.
And don’t forget that a huge part of their profits has been their so-far successful hedging of fuel. They could get current seat pricing for the price of last year’s fuel.
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:13 pmFurthermore, some of the layoffs, such as those attributable to Borders, have less to do with the economy as a whole than their being victim to changes in the marketplace. Again, sad for the employees, but normal.
All elements of the concept of “creative destruction” that is one part of the life-blood of capitalism.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:14 pmHowever, we seem to have a political establishment that favors a great deal of “destruction”, but comes up a little short on the “creative” side.
Comment by steve — 7/21/2011 @ 1:13 pm
You mean you have a successful airline being run by competent managers?
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:17 pmNow, why hasn’t that been tried before?
Well put. Just a lot of common sense. It adds up. Probably no one thing other than this attitude is responsible.
Who said you can blame Obama for everything?
You grant there is plenty to blame Obama for. One thing is specifically how they screwed Boeing over in a nearly fascist manner, demanding they build their planes in WA for purely political reasons.
This specific criticism of Obama is 100% fair.
In fact, I could go much larger in scale. Obamacare is the main point at which this country stopped producing jobs, which has had quite a deep impact on everything in the economy. You said on your blog that the voters don’t care about unemployment, but I think they do. I think they know just how fundamentally ruinous Obama’s policies are, and how one very good metric for that is how so many Americans can’t get work. It’s not just their little slice of the economy that matters to them. they are smarter than that.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:19 pmGotta love the muslim aligned left once again accusing tea partiers of being dictators when they believe the first amendment is just a piece of paper.
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:27 pmAnother economic marker was the change from a GOP to a DEM Congress in Jan-07.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:35 pmAt that point thinking businesspeople realized that taxes and regulations on business and the successful were going to become more onerous, and they started to retrench, which showed up in the official stats as the start of the recession in Dec-07.
As activity slowed down, and disposable income decreased (or,in the case of unemployment, dried up altogether), the housing market started to feel the impact, and the financial instruments buttressing that market began to go sour, until you had real players such as Bear, Merrill, and Lehman; plus banks heavily invested in the housing bubble such as Wachovia and Wa-Mu (among others) go upside down, finally resulting in the meltdown precipitated by Lehman’s closing.
For all of this, we give thanks to that great visionary who scolded us by saying:
To find out what’s in the bill, you have to pass the bill.
Thanks, Nancy!
Gotta love the muslim liars saying their religion asks for you to forgiving people……………honestly if you kill an infidel than all is forgiven.
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:36 pmAlso, the graphs contained in this story on truck/auto sales give visible evidence to the impact of the Nov-06 election, and the Dec-07 start of the official recession…
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:47 pmhttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/07/in-the-midst-of-cafe-negotiations-gm-re-invests-in-trucks/
The NLRB hasn’t succeeded (and I hope they don’t) in forcing Boeing to halt production in SC. Is there anything that ties the NLRB action to AA buying from Airbus? Or are they, as I argue, two mostly unrelated matters?
I didn’t say we don’t care about unemployment, just that we don’t care about it as an absolute, (as you seem to agree) we use it as a leading indicator of how we think things are going to be for us in the future. Unemployment can be 10%, but if it is headed down, you’re probably going to be happier than if it was 5% and heading up.
You give the public too much credit. They don’t know the specifics of Obama’s policies. What they do know is that the statistics they hear of and experience for themselves aren’t very good… and that is why they’re souring on Obama, more than because they’ve analyzed the details of his policies. I’ll use Reagan as an example. He wasn’t very popular when things were tough early on in his first term, his popularity improved along with the economy. Since his policies didn’t change, the only explanation is that the public doesn’t look at the specifics, they only look at the outcome. If it is good, they are happy with the incumbent, otherwise they’re not happy and are willing to toss the guy out.
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:48 pmWell jeesh what could go wrong AD?
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:51 pmNot much more than already has.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:52 pmThat’s right, who would imagine it? Why on earth should anyone imagine any such thing? What are you, ropelight, some sort of f—ing protectionist?
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:53 pmRopelight, are you seriously suggesting that a company’s name should dictate or even influence its purchasing decisions?!
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:54 pmMaybe he’s a union member?
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:54 pmI vaguely recall your expressing a bit of admiration for FDR, or indicating a willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt. If so, I wonder if external, superficial characteristics of a politician — for example, FDR’s charisma — may give him (or her) a boost he doesn’t deserve.
I don’ recall giving FDR any credit in the economic sphere. I think, given the situation, the CCC and the WPA were both worthwhile activities. Morgenthau did admit to Congress in 1938 (I think) that they had wasted a lot of money. Part of FDR’s problem, aside from his ignorance of economics, was that he had a horde of professors and other theorists experimenting with the economy. Some of those experiments were pretty odd.
Casa Grande Arizona is one of them. They tried to establish an agricultural community in the Sonoran desert. Another is Palmer Alaska where they relocated a bunch of Minnesota farmers.
I think the war cured a lot of Roosevelt’s goofy theories about businessmen and some real management geniuses ran the war production.
The Airbus thing with AA may well be hedging bets on Boeing since Obama seems to be trying to punish them. Airbus has some issues and pilots don’t like the planes. My brother-in-law is an American pilot and he says “If it’s not Boeing, I’m not going.”
Mike K (8f3f19) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:55 pmBut ropelight would object that Southwest has no business buying its planes from a company in the northwest!
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 1:55 pmhahahaha
You got him there!
They must buy Texas planes!
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:02 pmAnd I think someone said that it helps SW in that the routes they limit themselves to are all appropriate for the one airframe. They’re not trying to be all things to all passengers.
And don’t forget that a huge part of their profits has been their so-far successful hedging of fuel. They could get current seat pricing for the price of last year’s fuel.
Comment by steve
Steve, you are trying too hard. The benefits of one airframe are a big part of SW’s success. Hedging on the fuel was a brilliant move that is being attacked by your pals in the DNC. I’ve flown SW from LA to Baltimore. That’s long haul routing with the same plane.
A big reason the DC 10 and MD 11 never were successful is because three engines create 50% more maintenance work. The same applies to a single airframe. Why do you think NATO went to a standard caliber in the 60s ?
Logistics rule the world.
Mike K (8f3f19) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:02 pmLighten up, man. Come on.
A little nationalism is OK. To a point.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:04 pmPals in the DNC? Unless meant in jest, dumb.
steve (369bc6) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:04 pmComment by Mike K — 7/21/2011 @ 2:02 pm
“Amateurs plan Strategy;
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:07 pmProfessionals plan Logistics!”
Nationalism is fine. Nationalism is waving the flag on 4th July. It’s not insisting that company directors breach their fiduciary duty to their shareholders by taking country of manufacture into account in their purchasing decisions. Nobody makes at home what they can buy better and cheaper from someone else; and exactly the same applies to countries. I mean, this is not exactly new stuff, this is Adam Smith!
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:10 pmCan a business split into two entities to stay below the cutoff?
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:11 pmObama is a Welfare-ista and part of the reason the numbers don’t improve is because we keep extending unemployment benefits.
Trust me, I would hire if I could get good people 20-30% of my current rates. I got plenty of ideas I am willing to invest in.
Memo to O-Stoopid — wanna improve the unemployment rate and increase the labor force participation rate — back off unemployment checks for 99 weeks and actually cut back the benefits.
80% of those receiving money will be employment within 3 months. Incentive does that for them.
Sponge Bob Torquemada (786e37) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:20 pmAdd food stamps for the under 70 too.
Between unemployment, food stamps and housing assistance they are getting upwards of $2,000 per month on a pre-tax basis.
Sponge Bob Torquemada (786e37) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:21 pmI didn’t think Mike K’s points were dumb, Steve.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:22 pmI’m sure you could, if you could PROVE that it was a decision driven by non-medical reasons, otherwise they would have you for fraud.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:22 pmBut, why would you want to increase your administrative overhead (if not double it, since to stay on the safe side of the Feds might require the set-up of two completely independent entities)?
At some point it would just be cheaper to pay the piper.
Milhouse, nationalism is more than waving the flag, (look it up) and there’s nothing wrong with a little Americanism in the good old USA. Uncle Sam could use a little help.
Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country. I’m sure I read that somewhere.
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:43 pmrope…it was on a typing test.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:47 pmOh, I gotta stop smokin’ those funny cigarettes.
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:50 pmYou still smoke?
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:53 pmWhat are you trying to do, finance the government?
Oh, THOSE cigarettes.
So, you’re financing the Cartels.
But, they don’t need your help, they’re getting all that stimulus loot from the Obamster via Eric and the F&F boys.
I’m just trying to keep up with foreign relations and to make sure I don’t breach my fiduciary responsibilities to my shareholders. We sure wouldn’t want to be guilty of favoring the home team.
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 2:59 pm“…foreign relations…”
Wife, or Girlfriend; and does the one know of the other?
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:01 pmSlight topic divergence….
FoxNews.com headline:
Black Caucus ‘Furious’ Over GOP Rep. West’s Email to Dem Party Chief
I just have to say that anything that keeps the BC’s knickers in a knot is not especially a bad thing.
If they are otherwise occupied, it keeps their hands out of my (and your) pockets.
Go Allen!
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:07 pm…and, if DWS was a guy, I’ll bet that Col.West would have gone the Full Dornan on him(her).
Socialism always works until they run out of other peoples money. Obama is historic in that he has failed in spite of having the wealthiest country in the the history of the world to loot and in record time. The pattern for failure is usually a slow death spiral, but he has us in a high speed tailspin.
dunce (8dd87b) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:14 pm@Comment by steve — 7/21/2011 @ 12:58 pm
Way to miss the point entirely. The Obama administration is strangling small businesses through non-stop regulatory fiats and taxes. Instead of declaring a tax moratorium for small businesses and peeling back regulation on the businesses that actually are employing people and keeping the housing sector from completely flat-lining – they double down on crushing the small guys. At the same time, Wall Street and the banks get hundreds of billions in bailouts they use for foreign exchange speculation and no new controls or pressure to actually use the bailout funds to extend credit.
in_awe (44fed5) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:15 pmAmong the infuriating things about Obama is that he really has no clue that it is his own actions that are delaying recovery, keeping layoffs and unemployment high, and ultimately dooming his reelection bid. And I don’t think he really cares that his policies are so misguided. I’ve never had the sense that he cares what the consequences of his misguided policies are.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:18 pmSPQR, consider that Obama may know exactly what his policies will produce and that he takes great pride in the consequences.
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:25 pmI don’t think so, ropelight. I really think he’s utterly clueless of the economic impact of his actions. The results are so counterproductive to his own interests and those of his cronies.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:38 pm#75, AD, I have to say that Rep Allen West, R-FL-22, was unfair and off target, no way is Mayonnaise Head the most vile and despicable Democrat in Congress. The competition in her own party for that distinction is so wide and deep that Allen’s premature designation is obviously rash and shows his inexperience.
For example, Barney Frank alone puts Blabbermouth Schultz in the cheap seats. She’d have to top bringing FannieMae and FreddyMac down and sparking a national financial disaster to even make the short list.
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:38 pmPollyanna!
ropelight (ec985f) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:39 pmComment by ropelight — 7/21/2011 @ 3:38 pm
It is, as you note, a target-rich environment; but, her head popped up in his AOR, and he thinned the herd.
And to those over at HotAir who are wailing “what was he thinking, his district is so evenly divided he can’t afford to offend indy’s and Reagan Dems”, I would say only that there might be some very interesting polling data from his district that buttresses his position.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:48 pmAD, not only that, but DWS and her crones have been in his district saying some really disgusting things about West. They are playing hardball. If he pretends that’s acceptable behavior, he actually hurts himself politically. At some point, either he shows the voters he has the self respect to call this crap what it is, or he starts indicating their crap was fair.
DWS isn’t a lady, and I encourage West to continue putting her character to a comparison with his. Sure, the activists can scream all day, but the MSM doesn’t have the control it once did. Voters can think for themselves.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 3:51 pmFrom ABC News:
“Space historians will write that on July 21, 2011, Atlantis, on the final flight of the space shuttle program, landed safely at the Kennedy Space Center. On July 22, 2,800 employees there were to receive layoff notices.”
jim2 (b4ab6d) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:00 pm“Tip” O’Neill was renowned for saying, and acting, that all politics are local.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:03 pmA prominent Senate Majority Leader forgot that caution, and lost his seat when he focused too much of his time on National issues, and neglected his constituents.
Same thing happened to a very prominent GOP back-bencher from the OC who became so full of himself with his Presidential aspirations, that he couldn’t hold his seat in the House against an unknown.
DWS might find to her regret that her assignment as House Attack-Dog, and now as DNC Chair,
particularly now that she is in the Minority and has a tougher time shovelling pork to her district, will jeopardize her continued tenure in the House –
even the Old Pharts along the Gold Coast might get upset with their KongressKritter if Teh Won cuts off those SocSec checks, no matter how that is spun within the Beltway.
Here is the use of that term “the OC” again!
I suppose this means Bob Dornan.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:12 pmThe real reason for the unexpected unemployment is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics attempts to correct for very small new businesses that would not be picked up in a survey.
The problem is the standard or historical ratio of new businesses to expansions of old businesses isn’t true right now – and that’s EXACTLY what the problem with the economy is right now.
Banks have tightened their credit standards for certain kinds of loans especially loans to business.
It’s harder to qualify -> fewer loans -> fewer new businesses.
BLS assumes that all correlations remain the same. THAT’S KIND OF THE SAME MISTAKE that caused the housing bubble.
The BLS keeps on making the same error month after month and month, never realizing that something a little bit different is going on now.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:19 pmit way past time to
ColonelHaiku (cc5c75) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:21 pmexpect the unexpected
clueless media
Obama is not trying to wreck the economy, but he is very loyal to whatever takes he took on issues even thouygh he only took those positions for pragmatic polituical reasons. If before he said there had to be tax increases on higher income brackets he says so now. Some of this also is political calculations as to what would be a good campaign theme.
Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:23 pmComment by Sammy Finkelman — 7/21/2011 @ 4:12 pm
Well, Duh!
Now you get to figure out who the Majority Leader was.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:26 pmthey drink smoke their lunch
ColonelHaiku (cc5c75) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:26 pmlook for union label when
they punch you in mouth
good campaign theme for
ColonelHaiku (cc5c75) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:30 pmBig Zero is “There’s No Hope
Better Use Some Rope”
turn your clock back Prez
ColonelHaiku (cc5c75) — 7/21/2011 @ 4:34 pmrecall those days of rousing
rabble Daddy dreams
You mean an unknown who was signing up hundreds of aliens to vote for her. His real problem seems to have been that he alienated his colleagues enough that they voted to ignore the fraud and seat her anyway.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 5:51 pmThe gentleman from Washington.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 5:58 pmHe forgot which Washington he was supposed to be representing.
Milhouse (ea66e3) — 7/21/2011 @ 5:58 pmBZZZZZ!
No, it was the Senior Senator from South Dakota.
The Gentleman from Washington was Speaker of the House.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 6:03 pmHome Depot founder Bernie Marcus,
Having built a small business into a big one, I can tell you that today the impediments that the government imposes are impossible to deal with. Home Depot would never have succeeded if we’d tried to start it today. Every day you see rules and regulations from a group of Washington bureaucrats who know nothing about running a business. And I mean every day. It’s become stifling.
Telling. So telling.
Dana (4eca6e) — 7/21/2011 @ 8:40 pmDidn’t Bernie Marcus vote for Obama?
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 8:40 pmNice link, Dana.
Have we reached the breaking point where America will elect a crew with a mission to undo this entire apparatus? We really must.
Dustin (b7410e) — 7/21/2011 @ 8:42 pm__________________________________________
Unexpected unemployment: Maybe it’s the layoffs
The media has been mocked for quite awhile over their never-ending use of “unexpected” when bad economic data is being reported.
I’m too lazy to do any research, but it would be interesting if negative statistics on the economy when Bush was in the White House also often resulted in reports attached to the word “unexpected.” IOW, are reporters and editors so biased that they truly believe a liberal in the White House automatically equates with rainbows and lollipops for unemployment and job growth?
Or are they instead trying to couch the data to make it sound like bad trends during the years of a liberal administration are somehow in spite of, not because of, prevailing presidential politics?
Mark (411533) — 7/21/2011 @ 8:44 pmMedia thinks things Ogabe does are unexpected.
DohBiden (d54602) — 7/21/2011 @ 8:45 pmDidn’t Bernie Marcus vote for Obama?
Unlike Steve Wynn, I can’t believe Marcus was that gullible and even dumb.
Based on Marcus’s campaign contributions, notwithstanding a Democrat candidate named Swett and Florida’s Crist — suggesting that Marcus is susceptible to squishiness on occasion — the founder of Home Depot seems to be generally sane.
Mark (411533) — 7/21/2011 @ 9:09 pmComment by Mark — 7/21/2011 @ 8:44 pm
As I remember, the media would always look for a negative when reporting economic activity during the GWB years; ie,
Well, things are improving, but all the jobs are “hamburger flippers”; or,
Well, it certainly seems to be a jobless recovery as people are suffering underemployment even if the GDP is up.
Currently, they are very constrained by their biases in the manner in which they can report the just flat out awful economic news that cascades down upon us day after dreary day.
AD-RtR/OS! (4bd1e1) — 7/21/2011 @ 9:48 pmIt serves them right!