Egyptian News
[Guest post by Aaron Worthing; if you have tips, please send them here.]
Two quick items of interest.
First, the U.S. is officially advising Americans not to go to Egypt. Seems sensible to me, albeit potentially over cautious.
Second, one rational concern is that this will result in a new government that will look more like Iran than Iraq. So this account of Israelis visiting Egypt is hopeful on that front:
“The attitude towards us as Israelis and tourist is very friendly. Actually, they’re overly nice compared to my previous visits in Egypt. The Egyptians want to explain themselves, to tell everyone about their struggle. They speak Arabic over here so it’s easy to communicate with them. On Friday we went right past the demonstrations on our way back from the pyramids, and people helped us get though the crowd.”
Read the whole thing. Of course that is highly anecdotal. But let’s hope that it is typical nonetheless.
[Posted and authored by Aaron Worthing.]
hosni better catch
ColonelHaiku (f8a47b) — 1/30/2011 @ 8:24 pmnext camel out before he
buried in jammies
it’s very exciting I wish the Egyptian people well through the coming days
Mubarak needs to go away you know what they say about dictators and fish
happyfeet (ab5779) — 1/30/2011 @ 8:49 pmPikachu, did you sleep through 1978-1979, in a cupcake induced coma, remember the Shah, who was
narciso (e888ae) — 1/30/2011 @ 9:03 pmcelebrated by the peanut farmer, as ‘an island of stability’ then thrown under the bus, There’s no singular Khomeini figure, but Bakhtiars and Bani Sadrs are almost assured
http://neoneocon.com/2011/01/30/egypt-will-it-be-democracy-or-will-it-be/
narciso (e888ae) — 1/30/2011 @ 9:25 pmPikachu, did you sleep through 1978-1979
Probably wasn’t around, and I doubt The Disaster From Plains is taught as such in whatever San Fernando Valley K-12 kennel he went to.
it’s very exciting I wish the Egyptian people well
Had you been there, I’ll bet you would have wished the Cubans, Cambodians, Nicaraguans, North Koreans, and Chinese well.
It wouldn’t have surprised me to see you handing out cupcakes and cheering as they shot those icky old Romanovs, because you know what they say about autocrats and three day old herring.
A Fine Bunch of Rubens (720b7a) — 1/31/2011 @ 4:30 amThe anecdote is only useful in that it shows us the Muslim Brotherhood is not yet certain the regime will fall.
Roland (ab3879) — 1/31/2011 @ 5:51 amwell we have to make the best of it – turns out backing dictators to oppress muslims isn’t a terribly wise or clever thing to do.
Who knew?
oh. Mr. Bush knew, didn’t he? He tried to explain for us to where we could understand but we didn’t learn real good. Still, moving forward maybe we’ll do a better job pushing for democratic reforms in the middle east.
happyfeet (ab5779) — 1/31/2011 @ 6:19 amI found this article interesting:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703956604576110131980631472.html
From Ajami and other places I’ve read, it seems that the Egyptian military is the most stable influence at the moment, and they don’t like the Islamist radicals and are likely understanding Mubarek’s days are numbered. Will there be a semi-orderly transition or chaos?
Ajami said (on Bennett this am) that Islam is able to coexist with democracy, the issue is (like many things) Islam can be made to coexist with almost anything, depending on how you manipulate it.
Mubarek reportedly was a very humble guy when he took office and many people were hopeful, but with time he grew accustomed to power, and even moreso his family became accustomed to it, hence it wasn’t so much Mubarek the President, but “The House of Mubarek” Dynasty that ruled Egypt, which the people have gotten tired of.
It seems like whether it is Somoza in Nicaragua, the Shah in Iran, Saddam in Iraq, Mubarek in Egypt, or Achmadinajob (sp) in Iran, the US becomes content with trying to make due with the powers that be rather than using influence to move countries forward. Not that it is our primary responsibility to change foreign governments, but to the degree that we reinforce the status quo we are supporting foreign governments to the detriment of our reputation and influence in the world. I’ve read where this is the modus operandi of the State Dept., aim for “stability” and status quo at all times, even when it is possible revolution in Iran.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 1/31/2011 @ 6:22 amvery well stated Mr. Philly
happyfeet (ab5779) — 1/31/2011 @ 6:25 amExcept the Chamorros, the Bani Sadrs, the Agueros, to use three notable examples, are no match for the Sandinistas, the Ayatollah, the July 26th movement,
narciso (e888ae) — 1/31/2011 @ 6:32 amMD in Philly – But remember in the 1980s when teh hotness among the liberal elite cocktail party circuit was to have your own pet agrarian reformer, read commie mass murderer, from Central America, to show off to your friends?
daleyrocks (479a30) — 1/31/2011 @ 7:26 amTHat is what this resembles daley, or possibly the
fall of Suharto, occasioned in part by Soros’s breaking the baht and the renimbi, because he could.
Meanwhile, with regards to the first domino;
http://www.hudson-ny.org/1838/rachid-ghannouchi-islamist
narciso (e888ae) — 1/31/2011 @ 7:32 amAl Jazeera TV English has the best English language TV coverage. Unfortunately, most regions of the country don’t have it because ignorant bigots thought it was bin Laden’s personal network. Still, the streaming online is good.
Kman (d30fc3) — 1/31/2011 @ 7:49 amI agree with you daley and narciso, the question is how many years of Somoza and the Shah did it take before the Sandinistas and Ayatollah grew to power? Would there have been a place for “nudging” earlier.
I may simply be making an observation on the human condition. A great example, as I understand it, was our own Consitution. A compromise of principles (“all men endowed by their Creator”) which tolerated slavery even while hoping to weaken slavery with time and end it. After 100 years of waiting for a slow and gradual death and peaceful transition, the “volcano” of slavery blew up, costing more US lives than all other US wars put together.
I guess it is too easy to live with “the devil you know” than risk the alternative until things get so drastic you’ve lost the opportunity for thoughtful and purposeful change. The US revolution was so atypical, a relatively peaceful (as I understand it) number of years to form a new central government by design. Of course, at that time the independent colonies were relatively free from outside influence as things are today. Phone calls and internet postings to a chaotic situation are virtually instantaneous, and it is only a matter of hours before people can fly in and exert influence for good or ill.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 1/31/2011 @ 7:54 amI don’t trust El Baradei, if someone like Saad Ibrahim, or Ayman Nour, who has expoused liberal
narciso (e888ae) — 1/31/2011 @ 8:00 amvalues in the past; I would be more conforted about the direction of this thing, But seeing as Baradei
was part of the Baathist legacy project, Al Qua Qua
was a site for a joint Argentine/Egyptian missile program
One phrase in the Bible that seems curious and out of place is when Jesus says that men must take the Kingdom of God by force. Now before the anti-religious point their fingers, Jesus has made it clear his Kingdom is not of this world, so don’t say Jesus advocated Christians spreading religion by violence.
What it does have to do with, I think, is that “being good” is not the easy way that comes naturally, at least not when it really counts whether good or evil is in charge, but that it takes forceful intent and determination to be good. I think most of us are used to thinking of “being good” as “not being bad”. This is discussed by C.S. Lewis (“the writer of children’s books”) when Aslan is described as “being good” rather than “being safe”.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 1/31/2011 @ 8:01 amnarciso,
I have heard others say that at best Baradei is weak and would be unable to rule with effectiveness, just as he was, at best, unable to be effective in his previous position of international responsibility.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 1/31/2011 @ 8:04 amI imagine when Suleiman was selected for his new post, he said to Mubarak, ‘what did I ever do you, to deserve this’ the same for Shafik, because the problems Egypt faces in the short term, are quite intractable, soaring food prices, huge numbers of educated students, who are lacking in job opportunities, a legacy of corruption and inefficiency, hence the Ilkwan Muslimeen opportunity
narciso (e888ae) — 1/31/2011 @ 8:10 am“I don’t trust El Baradei”
narciso – He has provided absolutely no reason to deserve trust, but then again the Administration in Washington has shown no evidence of wisdom or knowledge, so all rational expectations are out the window at this point.
daleyrocks (479a30) — 1/31/2011 @ 8:11 amI have heard it said that Suleiman would likely be a person who would stear away from the Islamists and has face-to-face familiarity with the US and Israel. Whether he can garner popular support or not who can tell.
soaring food prices I heard one opinion today that much of the increase in food prices around the world is due to the combo. of the increased use of corn to make ethanol and the increase in US dollars being pumped out. I am pretty sure the corn to ethanol is a confirmed factor with worldwide implications, including encroachment on rain forest in Brazil to grow corn. International economics of money supply is far above my pay grade.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 1/31/2011 @ 1:23 pm