Patterico's Pontifications

12/12/2010

Further Evidence That the Mystery Contrail Was Flight UPS902

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 2:09 pm



I contacted the proprietor of the Contrail Science blog regarding my belief that the contrail I observed was north of Catalina Island, as opposed to his theory that it was flight UPS902. He sent me a Google Earth file that convinced me I was wrong.

Using Google Earth, you can open the file regarding that particular flight here. A tour of how to use it follows:

As a reminder, here is the drawing I made on top of a photo from my approximate vantage point:

We face south/southwest, so north is basically to the right.

And here is the Google Earth image from somewhere around my vantage point:

Keep in mind that my drawing was from what I saw inside the house. It undoubtedly continued its arc up and to the left, and if I had gone outside I think the arc would have looked just like the Google Earth screenshot you see above.

But while it looks like it is north of Catalina from that vantage point, it is not. Using the Google Earth file, this is what it looks like from overhead:

This is pretty good evidence. I think this guy has nailed it.

P.S. As I noted in the post below, he says the blue arc is a shadow. He clarifies by e-mail that it is a crepuscular shadow. You can see photos of similar shadows here. He says it appears odd because it is a single shadow.

4 Responses to “Further Evidence That the Mystery Contrail Was Flight UPS902”

  1. we’ll never know for sure it’s kinda like stonehenge

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  2. The National Geo-Spatial Intelligence Agency’s maritime announcement for the Eastern North Pacific off California in the days immediately prior to the mystery contrail’s sighting warned of: “Intermittent missile firing operations 00001Z to 2359Z daily Monday thru Sunday in the Naval Air Warfare Center Sea Range,…The majority of missile firings take place 1400Z to 2359Z and 0001Z to 0200Z daily Monday thru Friday.”

    The contrail event filmed by the KCBS television crew occurred during the specified time periods.

    A spokeswoman for the NGA confirmed the warning was issued in response to a request from the Naval Air Warfare Center Sea Range at Point Mugu in California.

    Additionally, a spokeswomen for the Naval Air Warfare Center Sea Range, Becky Hall, confirmed the sighting of the contrail occurred during the period of the NGA warning.

    Hall declined to answer any specific questions and referred inquiries to the press desk of the Office of the Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon.

    ropelight (567018)

  3. Since the velocity of a missile vs an airplane would be a lot different I would think, determining which of those it was should be pretty simple. To my eye it seems like it was going too fast to be plane.

    Gerald A (9ef895)

  4. Some missiles are propelled by rocket engines and reach supersonic speeds, while other missiles are propelled by air-breathing engines and travel at roughly the same speeds as jet propelled aircraft, cruise missiles are an example of the sub-sonic, air-breathing type.

    ropelight (4a1db7)


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