Patterico's Pontifications

7/27/2010

Obama skidding with Hispanics

Filed under: General — Karl @ 11:17 am



[Posted by Karl]

Of course, the Political Wire headline for this story is “Obama Still Strong Among Hispanic Voters“:

A new AP/Univision poll finds 57% of Hispanics approve of President Obama’s job performance compared with 44% among the general population.

The AP spin is not nearly as heavy:

President Barack Obama’s once solid support among Hispanics is showing a few cracks, a troubling sign for Democrats desperate to get this critical constituency excited about helping the party hold onto Congress this fall.

***

Still, 57 percent of Hispanics approve of the president’s overall job performance compared with 44 percent among the general population in the latest AP national polling.

What neither Political Wire nor the AP report is that the previous AP/Univision poll (.pdf), conducted in May, showed 66 percent job approval for Pres. Obama. Interestingly, the two AP/Univision polls are not directly comparable. The May poll was conducted by Roper from 5/7-12, whereas the new poll was conducted by NORC over a much longer period, from 3/11-6/3. Accordingly, it is difficult to extract a short-term trend from this data.

However, the trend is quite visible in the data at Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval Center. According to Gallup, Obama’s approval numbers among Hispanics has slid from the low-to-mid-70s at the end of 2009 to the mid-50s now. (In contrast, the similar numbers for whites have not moved much outside the low-40s to high-30s.)

One thing the AP gets right is that the Dems consider Hispanics a critical constituency, in both the shorter and longer term. But given the trend, and Obama’s even more anemic numbers on whether he is meeting the needs of Hispanic voters, Dems seeking to energize this constituency have their work cut out for them. The Obama administration’s demagogy over Arizona’s immigration law boosted their ratings on some issues, but the big picture is one of skidding support.

–Karl

38 Responses to “Obama skidding with Hispanics”

  1. …57% of Hispanics approve… compared with 44% among the general population”

    A small nitpick: the general population includes Hispanics, so for Obama’s overall rating to be 44%, it has to be lower than that for the non-Hispanic components. Since the article is making the comparison, it would be more accurate to say that Obama has less than 44% support from everybody else.

    steve (369bc6)

  2. steve,

    That is additional AP spin. For that matter, the NORC poll sampled only Hispanics, so the general population number is probably taken from another AP poll. FWIW, the Roper poll didn’t show a big gap between non-Hispanics and the total percentage. But the Gallup numbers give a better apples-to-apples comparison.

    Karl (f07e38)

  3. But…but…but…realignment! Demographics! Permanent democratic majority!

    Ruy Teixeira is a moron.

    alwaysfiredup (46730c)

  4. But wait there’s MORE!

    Speaking of Hispanics (maybe that should be HE Panics).

    Oh it’s going to be a glorious week if it starts out like this. 😛

    jakee308 (e1996a)

  5. Penny wise and pound foolish.

    I don’t even want to think about what goes on at the Pines.

    More Dems showing their ‘Let them eat cake’ attitude.

    Next up: Bastille day is November 9th this year folks. Don’t forget to vote and vote often.

    jakee308 (e1996a)

  6. What ever happened to the bounce of approval that would happen when they passed Obamacare? I seem to remember reading about that somewhere.

    Mr Pink (12e73f)

  7. jake, that’s “vote early, and vote often”!

    AD - RtR/OS! (33ac02)

  8. They’ve got themselves a Faustian bargain, since they already screwed themselves with independent voters after going after AZ’s bill – so if they push ahead with immigration reform, kiss them off. But if they don’t push ahead, kiss off the Hispanic voters. Man, these guys are so smart it makes me jealous sometimes.

    Dmac (d61c0d)

  9. If you try to play the unions off the hispanics and the blacks off the whites and the hippies off the goldman sachs crooks and the socialists off the middle class and the elderly off the statists…

    Well, you’ll be in for a bumpy ride.

    Obama was a blank slate, proudly, who could fool people into seeing completely different policies. He boasted about this. He’s not a blank slate now, he’s a failed president.

    If the GOP attempts to play this game too, by pandering to one group vs another, making some call as to who benefits based on their future demographics, they will a) never beat democrats promising more and b) face the same house of cards problem.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  10. Love the article about Barney Frank demanding his dollar discount. As if he and the rest of Congress hasn’t stolen enough from the public to pay full fare.

    rochf (ae9c58)

  11. Advocates of a certain policy position like to label immigration as a Hispanic concern, but the last poll I saw showed Hispanics pretty much equally divided on the subject. Something to keep in mind.

    LarryD (f22286)

  12. Would that make it a brown skid?…

    Frank Drebbin (8096f2)

  13. The majority of Hispanics are also in the camp that would be OK if we nationalized the English language. The irony here is our POTUS makes much noise about the need for everyone to learn Espanol, yet he doesn’t know a lick, and has no working knowledge of another language (other than English). Yet the idiot cowboy ignoramus Booosh knew Espanol and was fluent in it.

    Dmac (d61c0d)

  14. Comment by Dmac — 7/27/2010 @ 2:04 pm

    But Bush was Racist (TM), because he’s a Republican and supports lower taxes. Obama isn’t so vile. So any fluency in another language on the part of BOOOSHH is only further proof of the racism. I mean, doesn’t he think Latinos can learn English?

    no one you know (196ed7)

  15. If Barry Soetero attended a madrassa when growing up in Indonesia, he must have some familiarity with Arabic – not that he would admit it.

    AD - RtR/OS! (33ac02)

  16. And Indonesian.

    AP (holey moley, they actually did some investigation!!!) has this about the Drug War on the border. (figured I’d put it here cause the drug war post is dead)

    jakee308 (e1996a)

  17. jake, madrassas usually teach in Arabic since the Koran is written in Arabic, and The Word of Allah, and His Prophet, is not allowed to be changed.

    AD - RtR/OS! (33ac02)

  18. if the Rear Admiral
    were only that tight with
    the people’s money!

    ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c)

  19. he may be skidding with the hispanics, but he’s just been kidding the rest of us.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  20. Yet the idiot cowboy ignoramus Booosh knew Espanol and was fluent in it.

    As I understand it, GWB knows some Spanish but not fluently. Jeb, however, speaks fluent Spanish, and in fact made his money doing business with Latin America and Spain–not to mention a wife from Colombia.

    If Barry Soetero attended a madrassa when growing up in Indonesia, he must have some familiarity with Arabic – not that he would admit it.

    Probably not true. Most Muslims outside Arab speaking countries don’t actually learn the Koran in Arabic–at best they learn chunks of text without learning what it actually says (no more than a crude paraphrase). Rather in the same way that many Jews, like me, know some passages of the Torah and prayerbook in Hebrew but knowing at best a rote translation known only as a chunk and without actually knowing the word for word meanings, and have at best a limited Hebrew vocabulary.

    Also, the classical Arabic of the Koran differs in many respects from the various forms of modern Arabic. Any language develops and changes over thirteen centuries, and that’s how long it’s been since the Koran was reduced to writing, and given the geographical spread, there are substantial differences among the dialects spoken, say, in Iraq, Egypt, and Morocco–to the point where it is possible for many Lebanese to say with a straight face that their native language is not Arabic (they just call it Lebanese–usually the folks who don’t particularly like Hizbollah, etc.). Someone whose knowledge of Arabic was derived solely from the Koran would have a hard time communicating with a modern Egyptian, Syrian, etc.

    It would however be very surprising if Obama didn’t have a working knowledge of whatever language is the native language of Indonesia–although he might have forgotten much of it through non use over the years.

    kishnevi (d3282d)

  21. He admitted somewhere he was fluent in the local dialect of Indonesia

    ian cormac (5b70b3)

  22. It may just be possible that many Hispanics have come here legally, and don’t see why others shouldn’t do likewise. Also, since it is often the Hispanic neighborhoods where the illegal Hispanic criminal element makes their home and terrorizes all, they would like to keep them south of the border as well.

    Imagine that, Americans of different backgrounds having common desires and goals, who’d a thunk it (nobody trying to stir up tribal animosity).

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  23. Bahasa is the dialect in question

    ian cormac (5b70b3)

  24. MD in Philly, the sample of Hispanics I know well enough to talk politics to is like a dozen people, but that’s basically how they feel.

    I wouldn’t mind if we had ten times as many Hispanics in our country, so long as our immigration laws were followed, and criminals and moochers were sent home. This is one of those issues that doesn’t need to be so complicated.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  25. That 57% number is still terrible for Republicans and great for Democrats. And give Obama’s woeful performance in office, that’s probably his low water mark.

    Subotai (63ef0d)

  26. That poll is about as useful as a CBS/NY Times poll, in other words, not very, 1,000 + hispanics,
    (adults, registered likely?)

    ian cormac (5b70b3)

  27. I wouldn’t mind if we had ten times as many Hispanics in our country, so long as our immigration laws were followed

    I would. America will cease to be the country its supposed to be if it becomes majority Hispanic. Hell, look as the countries the Hispanics are fleeing to get here – they’re all .. whats the word .. Hispanic. Even Hispanics don’t want to live in Hispanic countries – why should we disagree?

    Subotai (63ef0d)

  28. ___________________________________

    Love the article about Barney Frank demanding his dollar discount.

    I read things like that, and also recall studies that indicate past and current Democrat/liberal presidents being less generous in their charitable giving than Republican/conservative presidents, and how a large percentage of people on the left in general actually are a bunch of crap when it comes to their supposed compassion, and it all fits a pattern.

    “Obama Still Strong Among Hispanic Voters“:

    Giving a million benefits of the doubt to liberal politicians (not to mention organizations) — including the current occupant of the White House — is par for the course when it comes to lower-income urban America, of which Latinos are a large part, and broken-down nations like Mexico or Venezuela.

    The mentality of most people in such settings is that politicians and governments can be corrupt, sloppy, indolent, incompetent, dishonest, flaky and even worse things. They’re excused for all that just as long as they stick to a do-gooder philosophy — just as long as they’re of the left — and just as long as they give wide latitude to the socio-cultural weaknesses and failings found throughout a society.

    Mark (411533)

  29. Subotai, there was a really damn good reason my folks came to this country. Some came from different places, but they all wanted a better life.

    I don’t blame people in Mexico or Spain or Greece or almost anywhere on Earth considering becoming an American. I frankly do not care about racial makeup. I think the government should be outlawed from tracking race in any way, and the topic should simply be ignored.

    If there’s some quality you’re really concerned about, let’s just focus on that. I think your concern is corruption and social welfare. That’s why I want people with a skill, who speak the language, who aren’t criminals, and do not go on dependency. I think an intelligent and working people will avoid much of the problems you’re worried about.

    Tall walls, wide gates, or however they say it. I wouldn’t worry about the actual racial makeup.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  30. Feliz Cinco de Quatro, beeyotches.

    JD (d55760)

  31. Mark – Can I still get a pet agrarian reformer like the liberals had back in the 70s and 80s?

    daleyrocks (940075)

  32. kish, I said familiarity, not fluency.

    AD - RtR/OS! (33ac02)

  33. I wouldn’t mind if we had ten times as many Hispanics in our country, so long as our immigration laws were followed

    I would. America will cease to be the country its supposed to be if it becomes majority Hispanic. Hell, look as the countries the Hispanics are fleeing to get here – they’re all .. whats the word .. Hispanic. Even Hispanics don’t want to live in Hispanic countries – why should we disagree?

    Comment by Subotai — 7/27/2010 @ 7:12 pm

    Um, what…? Could you explain yourself a little more — because I’m thinking I must not understand what you’re saying. You think that if America became a majority-Hispanic country, even if every Hispanic were here legally and the others, esp the criminals, were tossed out, that America would “cease to be the country it’s supposed to be?”

    How do I say this without it sounding like I don’t really want an answer — which I absolutely do:

    Could you describe the characteristics of the country America’s “supposed to be,” that a majority-Hispanic population would, in your opinion, impede?

    no one you know (487c05)

  34. no one you know

    Welcome to tribalism and nice job calling it out. Here’s a guy claiming he’s defedning America’s traditions and he doesn’t even know the line “All Men are created equal.” Thomas Jefferson was such a radical thinker even almost 250 years later, his words are misunderstood by “patriots.”

    timb (449046)

  35. Some people like to take outlier opinions and make them represent a group of people as a whole. Funny how that is wrong in some cases, but they accept that as part of normal discourse when they do it.

    JD (d55760)

  36. “White folks greed runs a world in need!”

    Seems Jefferson ideas are wanting even at the highest offices of the democrat party JD.

    Have Blue (854a6e)

  37. At least Obama and the Democrats can still rely on the Independent vote. Oh, wait.

    daleyrocks (940075)

  38. Some people like to take outlier opinions and make them represent a group of people as a whole.
    Comment by JD — 7/28/2010 @ 10:24 am

    And then they rail about the evils of “prejudice” and “stereotyping” like they’d never come near either in a million years. Heh.

    Would like an answer from Subotai, tho, if he comes around….that post bothered me quite a bit and I hope I misunderstood what he was saying.

    no one you know (196ed7)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.3025 secs.