Arizona Crime Statistics (Updated)
[Guest post by DRJ]
Tom Maguire points out the New York Times reports crime is down in Arizona (“On Border Violence, Truth Pales Compared to Ideas”) when it’s actually down in urban areas but up along the border:
“What we see that Arizona is broken into three categories – Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Cities Outside of MSA, and rural counties. Most people and most crime occurs in the MSAs. On the other hand, a glance at a map tells me that the Arizona border itself is not near what to the eyes of this former Manhattanite looks like is any major city.
And the stats reprinted below tell a different story – measured by violent crimes per 100,000, the non-MSA portion of Arizona has seen a dramatic increase in crime.”
Now why would the New York Times mislead readers about Arizona crime?
H/T Instapundit.
— DRJ
UPDATE: Bradley J. Fikes took a closer look at this story at his NCTimes blog and a related topic in this comment. I highly recommend both.
“Now why would the New York Times mislead readers about Arizona crime?”
Prolly just innocent misinterpretation. New Yorkers are likely to be more familiar with Florida.
daleyrocks (1d0d98) — 6/20/2010 @ 5:48 pmAP was pushing this meme last week. The 4 lowest violent crime states are all in border states ergo the border is safe. Never mind that Austin, Texas and Phoenix, Arizona are both around 200 miles from the border. On the one hand we have Big Ears saying he won’t secure the border without
Gazzer (d79016) — 6/20/2010 @ 7:16 pmcomprehensiveamnesty at the very same time that Jimmy Napolitano and her loyal band of numpties keep saying the border is “safer now than it’s ever been…”Not that that was much of a bench mark. Whatever could their motivation be (scratches chin as Scooby-Doo music plays)
Remind me again, which is the city in America that has the highest kidnapping rate: second in the world? What could possibly be violent in a kidnapping?
D’oh-first “states” should read “cities” in #2
Gazzer (d79016) — 6/20/2010 @ 7:25 pmBecause the NYT has a tenuous relationship with News,
AD - RtR/OS! (71ba66) — 6/20/2010 @ 7:38 pmbut is very big on Propaganda.
Maguire is himself playing around with statistics.
If I’m reading the chart he provides correctly, the middle columns labeled “Violent Crime” are the actual number of crimes reported.
MSA saw an incident increase of about 6.5 percent against a population increase of 25 percent
Non MSA cities saw an incident decrease of about 7 percent against a population decrease of about 33.5 percent
Non metropolitan counties saw an incident increase of about 22 percent against a population decrease of about 15 percent. 22 percent is not chopped liver, but it’s not as dramatic as the 45 percent shown on the chart.
And the population outside the MSA is small enough that overall crime rate change tracks closely to the MSA figure.
There are two things that get in the way of using even that much reliability. There is no indication as to whether the proportion of crimes reported (in relation to the number of crimes actually committed) has decreased, increased, or stayed the same–and of course that proportion may not be the same among the three categories.
The figures seem to assume the proportion of reported crimes has stayed the same, but if it hasn’t then appropriate adjustments would need to be made.
Second, “non-metropolitan areas” includes more than the border areas. Most of northern Arizona qualifies for the label, and until they are broken out into their own category, you can’t say what the actual change in violent crime along the border has been. For all the chart reveals, that increase in the crime rate may represent a bunch of tourists being robbed on their way to the Grand Canyon.
The questions the table raises are these:
kishnevi (7e1f91) — 6/20/2010 @ 7:55 pmWhy did the population of nonMSA Arizona (both non-MSA cities and non-metropolitan counties) decrease in absolute numbers (a point Maguire does raise in his article) and why did the crime rate increase in the nonMSA areas instead of declining along with the population.
Was it necessary to begin with the inflammatory “Maguire is himself playing around with statistics” when you essentially confirm his point that the statistics aren’t as clear as the New York Times makes them out to be? I think that’s especially unfair since Maguire’s conclusion is that we need to know more:
DRJ (d43dcd) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:00 pmMaguire’s use of statistics is flawed.
And inflammatory, too.
kishnevi (7e1f91) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:14 pmLies, Damn Lies, and Statistics – especially the ones that put the lie to your assumptions.
AD - RtR/OS! (71ba66) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:25 pmWe must always remember that:
Obama
Hillary
Holder
do not care about crimes committed by Mexican illegals, Puerto Ricans separatists, billionaire traitors like Marc Rich, Black Panthers at polling places….
They simply do not care, as long as there is political hay to be made.
They simply do not care about our safety.
What are we to make of that?
Kevin Stafford (abdb87) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:35 pmkishnevi,
You admit the Arizona crime rate increased in the nonMSA areas instead of declining along with the population. I think that was Maguire’s point because it doesn’t square with the New York Times’ thesis that the overall Arizona crime rate went down. Crime in some areas is down, but it isn’t in other areas. And the areas in which it hasn’t gone down could be the most important part if the issue is the border.
DRJ (d43dcd) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:42 pmLock and Load?
AD - RtR/OS! (71ba66) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:42 pm“There are two things that get in the way of using even that much reliability. There is no indication as to whether the proportion of crimes reported (in relation to the number of crimes actually committed) has decreased, increased, or stayed the same–and of course that proportion may not be the same among the three categories.
The figures seem to assume the proportion of reported crimes has stayed the same, but if it hasn’t then appropriate adjustments would need to be made.”
kishnevi – What does the above garbage mean? Do you have any locations where you can actually track the accuracy of the crimes committed versus crimes reported data? Seriously?
daleyrocks (1d0d98) — 6/20/2010 @ 8:43 pmOf course, in areas of Arizona where American citizens are not allowed to enter, there is no collection of crime data.
MD in Philly (5a98ff) — 6/20/2010 @ 9:12 pm10–But the stats Maguire proffers don’t give us the necessary information as to whether violent crime in the border areas has actually increased.
At the very least, you would have to separate the northen counties from the counties on the border (or more precisely, the counties through which the migrant smuggling routes pass). Maguire’s figures make no distinction between, say, the actual border and the Grand Canyon, which is after all in Arizona, and certainly sees a high amount of traffic. For all we can tell, that rise in the crime rate may be in areas that have nothing to do with migrant smuggling. (Yes, I know they probably are–but there’s no definite evidence that Maguire presents on that point.)
And then there are things you have to consider. Perhaps the dip in the MSA rate is due to Sheriff Joe and his strict enforcement; perhaps the rise outside the MSA is due to criminals moving out to other areas of the state to escape that strict enforcement and has nothing to do with migrant smuggling.
12–you’ve never heard of stats giving the rate of crimes reported?–much of it speculative, but it has a long history. Not every crime gets reported–a farmer not wanting a second visit from a coyote (the human kind) may not report the first crime; a tourist driving to the Painted Desert may not report a robbery if not much was stolen and he doesn’t want to delay his sightseeing.
There are official estimates of how much crime goes unreported. I think even the FBI makes use of the technique.
kishnevi (7e1f91) — 6/20/2010 @ 9:27 pmI understand that, Kishnevi, but it certainly raises the question. Plus, I don’t see any way the New York Times can gloss over the possibility that border crime might be up.
Surely you aren’t arguing that because Maguire doesn’t have the data to show exactly what’s happened in each county, he can’t point out that the NYTs has drawn a questionable conclusion based on the data we have.
DRJ (d43dcd) — 6/20/2010 @ 9:37 pm“12–you’ve never heard of stats giving the rate of crimes reported?–much of it speculative, but it has a long history.”
hishnevi – Sure I’ve heard of it, but if you can’t track it and measure it, why bother mentioning it other than to blow smoke up peoples’ butts. I could make up a bunch of irrelevant stuff that Maguire’s post “must have assumed” to impress people and sound good, but like the stats you introduced, I couldn’t actually provide any, so why distract people with BS. You took the same approach with your comments on labor markets. Sure any impediment imposed by governments to the absolute free flow of people to jobs and the ability to negotiate wages is a restriction on the perfect economic model, but does that perfect economic model exist outside of a few micro areas on earth, which by definition, if they are only micro areas, means labor is not flowing freely to its highest and best use. People such as yourself who get hung up on theoretical abstractions have trouble analyzing real world problems, much like the Obama Administration.
daleyrocks (1d0d98) — 6/20/2010 @ 9:45 pmI really love the comparison of the Grand Canyon area with the Border areas…there are sooooo many similarities…like all of that smuggling being done into Utah from the south-rim to the north-rim and beyond.
Fess up, kish….you got nothin’!
AD - RtR/OS! (71ba66) — 6/20/2010 @ 11:20 pmI’ve noticed that khiss me seems to be following the classic MO of the concerned conservative christian Troll act we’ve become so familiar with – even more telling is the frequent usage of ridicule when challenged on the facts, rather than responses based on same.
Dmac (e47b06) — 6/21/2010 @ 6:49 amI’ve noticed that khiss me seems to be following the classic MO of the concerned conservative christian Troll act we’ve become so familiar with – even more telling is the frequent usage of ridicule when challenged on the facts, rather than responses based on same.
His/her comment yesterday that a country can only secure the borders by opening them up completely should have been a dead giveaway.
Another Chris (2d8013) — 6/21/2010 @ 7:19 amThe NYT articles stated:
“But the rate of violent crime at the border, and indeed across Arizona, has been declining, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as has illegal immigration, according to the Border Patrol.”
However, the link to an FBI table supposedly corroborating that claim doesn’t show anything about the border. It lists crime rates in cities of over 100,000 people. The closest is Tucson, which is about 60 miles away from the border.
And Tucson has a footnote reading: The FBI determined that the agency did not follow national Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program guidelines for reporting an offense. Consequently, this figure is not included in this table and has been excluded from all Report tabulations.
So the NYT article’s claim about declining border violence isn’t backed up at all.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C. O.R. (a18ddc) — 6/21/2010 @ 8:38 amOh, but Bradley, it does fit Teh Narrative!
Eric Blair (02a138) — 6/21/2010 @ 9:17 amNot counting auto and id theft because they are not vioplent crimes is spin.The cost of schooling illegals children,overloading emergency rooms and many other public services are theft from citizen taxpayers.Take the meme that they are net payers into the system and put it with other discredited crap with the flatulence fan on.
dunce (3ef93a) — 6/21/2010 @ 12:23 pmDRJ, thank you for that fascinating link. It was hard for me to believe that a NYT reporter could make that basic an error. Thanks to your find, I’ve blogged about this.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C. O.R. (a18ddc) — 6/21/2010 @ 1:03 pmOr perhaps Joe Arpaio’s suppression strategy is working.
Federale (5b57a1) — 6/21/2010 @ 1:13 pm17–you’ve identified the problem–but it’s not mine, it’s Maguire’s. His figures don’t differentiate between the border areas and the northern areas–there’s just one category for non metropolitan, which makes no distinction between mugging tourists at the Grand Canyon and kidnapping ranchers on the border.
And that means his figures are useless for determining how much border crime has increased.
There’s also other problems with his argument. For one thing, two years in isolation don’t provide real evidence. Did crime spike in 2008? Was it unusually low in 2000? Can’t tell from those figures. Instead of comparing 2008 to 2000, it would have been a better argument to compare it to 2006 and 2007, so we could see if there was a trend, and if there was a spike, how much of a spike.
The NYT reporter made a basic error, but Maguire made some basic errors of his own.
kishnevi (4d1249) — 6/21/2010 @ 4:37 pm“The NYT reporter made a basic error, but Maguire made some basic errors of his own.”
kishnevi – Very poor attempt at a save to salvage the numerous reading and comprehension errors you made and are still making.
daleyrocks (1d0d98) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:01 pmI was just reading about a Grand Canyon crime wave …
JD (41e5f8) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:08 pmDeep reading?
Machinist (497786) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:09 pmJD – When they release water from the dam, things can get pretty choppy.
daleyrocks (1d0d98) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:10 pmAssuming they keep the ratio of that unquantifiable data to the known data constant for each period.
daleyrocks (1d0d98) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:12 pmI was ankle deep in manure at the time, yes, Machinist.
JD (41e5f8) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:15 pmDeep reading?
Comment by Machinist — 6/21/2010 @ 5:09 pm
Only if you step over the edge.
AD - RtR/OS! (a2aeeb) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:15 pmbut it’s not mine, it’s Maguire’s
No, it seems to be the NYT’s, since they are relying on FBI data that is not quite specific enough, and Maguire is just pointing out to them the discrepencies in their analysis, particularly when they tried to spin that low-crime story about four cities “on the border” and they included Austin TX.
AD - RtR/OS! (a2aeeb) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:18 pmFrom a provincial Manhattan perspective, all of Arizona, Texas and Southern California is “on the border”.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C. O.R. (a18ddc) — 6/21/2010 @ 5:55 pmAD – RtR/OS!,
Would you give me a link to that low-crime story about border cities that included Austin?
Thanks!
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C. O.R. (a18ddc) — 6/21/2010 @ 6:01 pmBrad…It was an AP story datelined Mexico City by Martha Mendoza. Here is a link to it in the Wichita Eagle…
AD - RtR/OS! (a2aeeb) — 6/21/2010 @ 6:13 pmhttp://www.kansas.com/2010/06/04/1343361/fbi-violent-crime-low-in-states.html
You might want to go to AP to see how the Eagle edited it down, if any.
If one has an opportunity to talk to folks who live in and around the city of Tucson – for example – one should do so. If one harbors any doubts about the serious nature of the situation, you’ll see those doubts evaporate. I have family members who do live there – Americans of Mexican heritage in their case – and they dearly want the federal government to live up to its constitutional responsibility. Since Obama has given no indication that is in the cards, they want the Arizona law to be enforced to its full extent.
GeneralMalaise (2ce3dc) — 6/21/2010 @ 6:18 pmAD – RtR/OS!
That was a remarkably dishonest AP article by Martha Mendoza, mixing in “border states” with border crime, as if the two were comparable. (And why was the article datelined Mexico City?)
Such stories to discredit fears of illegal immigration are being encouraged as part of a deliberate agenda by the so-called great thinkers in journalism. One of these is Tim McGuire at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. It’s pretty obvious how McGuire feels about the Arizona illegal immigration bill.
Just think of all the other agenda-driven journo profs and their media colleagues. Add to them the “think tanks” that train journalists in their anti-anti-illegal immigration groupthink. The Institute for Justice and Journalism is one of the most blatant.
In 2006, Associated Press reporter Elliot Spagat took such a fellowship. The next year Spagat was named San Diego correspondent for AP. Be highly skeptical of anything Spagat writes about the border and immigration issues.
Oh, and as for the writer of that dishonest piece, Martha Mendoza? Guess which outfit she’s affiliated with?
AP is infested with such dishonest, agenda-driven reporters. It’s the dishonesty that bothers me more than the agenda.
CNN has severed its relationship with AP. Maybe now the network’s coverage will improve.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 6/21/2010 @ 7:32 pmjusticejournalism? I can only imagine …
JD (41e5f8) — 6/21/2010 @ 7:34 pmHere’s a list of current Institute for Justice and Journalism fellows.
These 15 journalists have taken part in an IJJ program “focusing on immigration issues in the nation’s interior states.”
Read their work with extra skepticism, but don’t dismiss it out of hand. (Some journalists may have taken the IJJ fellowship as part of a more ideologically diverse training on illegal immigration issues.)
The journalists are:
Shajia Ahmad, reporter, The Garden City (Kan.) Telegram.
Elizabeth Baier, reporter and producer, Minnesota Public Radio.
Vallery M. Brown, investigative team reporter, The Oklahoman in Oklahoma City.
Thomas Burr, senior Washington correspondent, The Salt Lake Tribune.
Chris Casey, reporter and columnist, The Tribune in Greeley, Colo.
Stephanie Czekalinski, reporter, the Columbus Dispatch and editor for Fronteras, its Spanish-language weekly.
Ginnie Graham, reporter, Tulsa World.
Ron Jackson, projects reporter, The Oklahoman.
Miriam Jordan, senior special writer, Los Angeles bureau of The Wall Street Journal.
Pilar Marrero, senior political reporter and blogger for La Opinión and other ImpreMedia newspapers.
Lee Rood, investigations editor at the Des Moines Register.
Mary Sanchez, metropolitan columnist for The Kansas City Star and syndicated columnist with Tribune Media Services.
Patricia Schneider, reporter, The Capital Times in Madison, Wis.
David Stout, producer and reporter, T30 Noticias, the Telemundo affiliate in Oklahoma.
Sarah Terry-Cobo, reporter, the Center for Investigative Reporting.
Know your reporter!
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 6/21/2010 @ 7:57 pmI updated the post to add Bradley’s post and comment.
DRJ (d43dcd) — 6/21/2010 @ 8:31 pmDRJ, thanks.
I have updated my post to reflect criticism of Maguire’s post, from criminal justice professor James Alan Fox.
Fox has successfully called Maguire’s analysis into question in some areas, but has not shown the NYT article to be accurate. I think his post is disingenuous.
Maguire’s main point is that the NYT article inaccurately used crime stats from urban areas away from the border to draw conclusions about crime along the border. The NYT article’s lead about the murder of an Arizona rancher is an example of a violent crime that the FBI stats linked to in the story don’t cover.
Bottom line: the NYT story is still inaccurate, and the NYT still needs to run a correction.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C. O.R. (a18ddc) — 6/22/2010 @ 1:51 pmComment by Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. — 6/21/2010 @ 7:32 pm
Thanks for the update.
AD - RtR/OS! (2480c8) — 6/22/2010 @ 2:06 pmI can only hope that she is a better diagnostician of automotive woes than she is of geo-political controversy so that she will have something to fall back onto when this journalism gig runs out. But, of course, there always is Santa Cruz.
It truly is much better to give than to be given!
Stacey Werry (659a94) — 4/6/2011 @ 8:46 pm