Republican Wins in Hawaii (Updated)
[Guest post by DRJ]
Congratulations to Charles Djou, Congress’ newest member and the first GOP representative from Hawaii in 20 years:
“Republicans cited Rep.-elect Charles Djou’s victory for a seat long out of their reach as evidence of steadily increasing election-year strength, but Democrats said Sunday the winner’s 40-percent vote share portends a short stay in Congress for him and predicts nothing about the fall.”
I don’t think it means much either, except that neither of two Democratic candidates would give up. But it’s nice while it lasts.
— DRJ
UPDATE: Jim Miller looks at Djou’s win and chances for re-election.
I’m surprised he got 40%. If you presume that he will face one of his two (30%) opponents in November, after they tear each other apart over “who lost the seat”, he might be able to pick up enough of the losers support to pull it out. Especially if the tourism economy is dead due to recession and such.
Kevin Murphy (5ae73e) — 5/23/2010 @ 4:42 pmIt occurs to me that “Republican Wins in Hawaii” is something I may never have a chance to write again.
DRJ (d43dcd) — 5/23/2010 @ 4:54 pmI wouldn’t concede the district, if I were a Republican strategist. Bush got 47 percent of the vote there in 2004, and Djou is an almost perfect candidate for the district, especially now that he is the incumbent. Republican Governor Lingle must ahve carried it easily in 2006, since she won 63 percent of the vote, and the 1st district is a little less Democratic than the 2nd.
(There’s a little more analysis in my post on Djou’s win>)
Jim Miller (d77521) — 5/23/2010 @ 5:27 pmI like positive thoughts, Jim Miller, and I’ve updated the post to link your analysis.
DRJ (d43dcd) — 5/23/2010 @ 5:43 pmEverything depends on the economy. Richard Russell, who has been writing Dow Theory Letter since the 1950s, and which I have subscribed to since 1977, has told his subscribers to “sell everything.” The last time he put out such a message was in September 1987, a month before the Dow fell 25%.
If the economy goes in the tank, The Democrats will have trouble holding any seats outside black districts.
Mike K (82f374) — 5/23/2010 @ 5:54 pmWow, Mike, I read about that, didn’t realize he was correct in the past too.
We know this economy is not fixed. At. All.
Patricia (160852) — 5/23/2010 @ 6:08 pmFolks – looking back over history, the Obama/Reid/Pelosi economic response might as well have been the Hoover response to the Crash of 1929 (you know, the response that turned a significant market fall into the Great Depression) …
On a lighter note, and as posted on another blog a few minutes ago,
Alasdair (205079) — 5/23/2010 @ 7:35 pmDjou has an excellent chance of winning in Nov for many reasons.
First, Hawaii has a long tradition of re-election incumbents from both parties.
Second, the Haw 1st has cast more votes for the GOP candidate in each of the last 4 elections for Gov – though one of those was a 3 way race with a nominal Independent who was previously elected Mayor of Honolulu as a Democrat.
Third, Djou’s entire Honolulu City Council District is within the Haw 1st Congressional District, so his base of support is solid.
Fourth, his likely opponent in Nov. will be State Senate Pres. Hanabusa, and she is 100% tied to the Dem. Party Establishment and local labor unions. While this will give her a solid base of support, it will also turn off some Dem voters and many Independents who view that Dem Machine as corrupt and too much in control of Hawaii politics — Dems have 45 of 50 State House seats, and 23 of 25 State Senate seats, largely on the back of party line voting for Dem candidates. The state’s budget is a mess, with the Dem Legis. having promised raises to public workers unions for years to come.
Fifth, Hanabusa’s State Senate District, the only place she has ever run for election and where she was born and raised, is the far west coast of Oahu, and it is not in the Haw. 1st District.
Sixth, an analysis of the voting patterns out this morning shows Djou did better than expected in some of the “suburban” bedroom communities to the west of downtown Honolulu. These are largely middle-class residential areas which are around and inland from Pearl Harbor.
Seventh, by polling around 40% in a special election, Djou needs to find only 11% more to win in Nov. Hanabusa needs to find 21% more. There were about 170,000 votes cast — so for Hanabusa it means she has to find about 34,000 more votes out of 47,000 that were cast for Case.
While it is certain that most of those votes are from Democrats, it’s also certain that every one of them voted for Case in the face of the fact that Hanabusa was the preferred candidate of the State Dem. Party, the State Dem. Machine, both US Senators, and all the state labor unions. And those Case voters knew that Case couldn’t win.
Yet they still refused to vote for Hanabusa.
Hanabusa has political baggage — big corruption issues going back to the Bishop Estate scandal in the late 1990s, and her then boyfriend developer Jeff Stone. If you want an interesting read, google up “Bishop Estate and Broken Trust”.
shipwreckedcrew (436eab) — 5/24/2010 @ 9:19 am“Bishop Estate and Broken Trust”
Ah, corruption on a scale that could only warm the heart of a Chicago Pol.
AD - RtR/OS! (21733c) — 5/24/2010 @ 11:06 am