Patterico's Pontifications

4/1/2010

2010: Time is already running out for Dems

Filed under: General — Karl @ 3:21 pm

[Posted by Karl]

Democrats are beginning to admit things are looking bad for them in the midterm elections… but they still hope to turn their electoral fortunes on a dime:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Wednesday that if the 2010 election were held today, his party would be faced with a similar result to its catastrophic 1994 losses.

Greenberg, who was Bill Clinton’s pollster in the early 1990s, went on to say that he doesn’t think the current situation will hold over the next seven months, and that he expects things will improve for Democrats.

Greenberg went on to the talking point that the GOP’s bad public image might prevent the party from taking full advantage of the situation. Yet the favorable rating for the Democratic Party has fallen to its lowest level since Gallup began asking the question in 1992. The GOP’s supposed image problem image did not stop Republicans from winning in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts — and one is hard pressed to find in the polling data races where the Republican candidate is suffering much from the GOP’s supposedly bad image. Greenberg — and Democrats generally — ignore the possibility that voters will care more about stopping the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda than about the GOP’s image.

Greenberg also notes an increase in intensity among Democrats after passing ObamaCare — but CNN (and Gallup) showed a similar surge in intensity for Republicans.

Beyond these flimsy rationalizations, Democrats (and Reuters) seem to be clinging to the hope that the public anger with them will fade over the next few months:

By Election Day, developments on jobs, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and other events could reshape the political landscape.

“I believe that if we begin to see positive job growth, people’s confidence will return, and that will change the dynamic,” says Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But, he says, “the Democrats obviously face an uphill climb. The question is the steepness of the hill.”

Democrats are likely underestimating how soon political perceptions harden in an election year. Via the Wayback Machine, we can revisit the RNC’s summer meeting in Los Angeles:

One of the sessions at this particular RNC summer meeting was a strategy session in which Republican political demographer John Morgan, Sr., assessed the chances for party candidates in the fall mid-term elections. This closed (to the press) door session was remarkable in that Mr. Morgan went through a slide presentation by region, since we collectively did not have the time to consider each of the 435 separate races for the U.S. House of Representatives, in which he calculated that the likely Republican seat pick-ups would be enough to give the party control of the chamber the following January, after 40 years in the minority. While the audience sat in stunned silence, Mr. Morgan calmly reiterated that his analysis was not based on hype or optimism – he had painstakingly gone through the data in each of the 435 races and confidently concluded that the GOP would win a House majority.

That meeting was held on or about July 21, 1994 — before Hillary Clinton did her infamous bus tour for ClintonCare, before George Mitchell had to pull ClintonCare from the Senate floor, before the House GOP torpedoed the crime bill, well before Newt Gingrich unveiled the Contract With America. Moreover, an analysis of all 435 House races probably took a while to compile, suggesting that the basic shape of the 1994 midterm election was set by summer.

A similar pattern is seen in presidential approval ratings, which correlate with the president’s party’s fortunes in midterm elections. In the modern era, Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have lost an average of 41 House seats in mid-term elections. Moreover, most presidents saw their approval rating drop in the second year of their presidency — on average by five percentage points. The two biggest sophomore slumps belong to Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Obama’s trajectory to date is similar to that of Carter and Reagan; his approval numbers are unlikely to improve before the midterms, even under a fairly rosy economic scenario. And we have now reached the point where about half the public blames Obama in part for the economy.

In sum, the trendlines for Democrats are bad, and — barring a major, unforeseen event — unlikely to improve by November. Democrats spent a year pretending they had a left-wing mandate and running roughshod over public opinion. It seems unlikely that anything they do in the next three months will prevent the concrete from hardening around their ankles.

–Karl

177 Responses to “2010: Time is already running out for Dems”

  1. You think those pollsters are legit? HA! You should go to the DailyKos and check out their guy – he’s objective as all get – out, and I know something about objectivity.

    Comment by Muron

    Dmac (21311c)

  2. You mean the same polls they took before Clinton fleeced Gingrich by shutting down Congress?

    Comment by Imadouchebag

    Dmac (21311c)

  3. As long as voters see the “R” on their ballots, the Dems will always win.

    Comment by Parsnips

    Dmac (21311c)

  4. I never tire of hearing predictions of upcoming Republican electoral victories.

    snips (6a0094)

  5. Something relatively assured. Harry Reid is in serious trouble when it comes to getting reelected. Boxer is in trouble and a Republican is sitting in the seat held by Edward M. Kennedy. A Republican sits in the State House in New Jersey and Virginia. There are those out there who do not understand the anger that exists in America dealing with the move toward socialism. If you are amongst those, conceal yourself and observe. (Hide and watch).

    Zelsdorf Ragshaft III (6fd82a)

  6. If the R’s, in effect, run the table, the D’s would then be in the position where they would have to continue to vote to preserve Obamacare in order not to give repeal sufficient votes to override a presidential veto, continuing the process of their own destruction.

    Or they could let it be repealed and be pilloried by their own left wing forever.

    p.s. snips, the phrase “methinks he doth protest too much” comes to mind when reading your comments.

    ras (88eebb)

  7. What the Dems are not considering is the fact that while there are 7 months left to the election, only 2-3 of those months have the capacity for significant public attention to politics.

    Once June arrives, summer vacations begin to kick in and people become distracted by other events. Longer days take people out of their homes beyond the evening newscasts.

    August is a non-month politically because Congress will not be in session.

    By the time Oct. rolls around, the die is cast — candidates in bad shape will find it hard to change the dynamics of the race by that point.

    So, the Dems really have only April and May, and then September, to shift the public’s perception of their stewardship.

    Tick Tock.

    shipwreckedcrew (c0d6cd)

  8. “p.s. snips, the phrase “methinks he doth protest too much” comes to mind when reading your comments.”

    I don’t mind the Rs phony triumphalism at all.

    “McCain closing on Obama in final days” was my favorite.

    snips (6a0094)

  9. snips,

    I don’t mind the Rs phony triumphalism at all.

    Wow, you really can’t stop, can you?

    ras (88eebb)

  10. The thing that was set in stone in July, 94, was the Clinton Assault Weapons Ban in all of its’ permutations. Those that respect the 2nd Amendment had a very large say in that election throughout fly-over country. Quite a few of the Dems that didn’t come back had voted Aye, including the Speaker, Mr. Foley, who was the first sitting Speaker to be denied re-election.

    As to this November, I think a lot of people are “whistling past the graveyard”.

    AD - RtR/OS! (f793c7)

  11. the Dems rock!!!

    Polygamist (aa402f)

  12. Only when they shake their head and you can hear them knocking into each other.

    AD - RtR/OS! (f793c7)

  13. Lol!!

    Polygamist (aa402f)

  14. Karl – Good post. I’m waiting breathlessly for Myron to come tell you to give it up now that his vaunted health rationing bill has passed.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  15. So is the GOP going to run on repeal or something more nuanced?

    [note: fished from spam filter. --Stashiu]

    imdw (5d0126)

  16. snips is like a Somali pirate in a skiff attacking a Navy frigate. Destined for failure.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  17. his vaunted health rationing bill has passed.

    Comment by daleyrocks — 4/1/2010 @ 5:12 pm

    ROTFLMAO!!!

    Polygamist (aa402f)

  18. Hey, snips. My favorite line was your claiming that President Obama was enjoying “rock solid support.”

    It’s especially useful to remember that when you get all, well, snippy.

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  19. “Barring a major unforseen event”???
    Umm like when Moe-hammad Atta jr breaks KSM out of wherever there keepin him???
    Anthrax attack on Yankee Stadium during World Series?
    Ahmanidejad tests I-rans first Nuke?
    The President’s(Peace be upon Him)got more down below than I give him credit for if he trys immigration reform, heck my neighborhood already sounds like Univision…

    Frank Drackman (7ee2ca)

  20. Uh-huh, Karl.

    I never tire of hearing predictions of upcoming Republican electoral victories.

    Me neither. “Crown their ass.” It’s all over for the D’s.

    The only thing I enjoy more is talk of how the health care law will be repealed and replaced.

    Michael Steele, Erik “Bondage Boy” Brown and the Steele’s RNC chums are clearly making all the right moves to make sure the takeover/repeal/whatever-else-they-have-planned happens right on time. By then Obama, who is at 50 percent approval, will be at 12 or 13.

    Daley: You can breathe now.

    Myron says, "We let 'em off the hook" (3d5c6b)

  21. #18: posting while intoxicated?

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  22. Well, I do have to admit that the only chance the Dems have now is the RNC. There are reasons why the GOP is called the stupid party. One is that every smart Republican is out running a business and not running for office.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  23. gas prices are getting noticed again… people are talking about that here in California anyway… (prices tend to be a good bit higher here.)

    Plus also state budget crises are brewing.

    Plus also hardly anyone talks about Sarah Palin as a president anymore.

    These are favorable trends.

    happyfeet (71f6cb)

  24. Is that alphie? How are you Mr. alphie?

    It’s seems like you were gone for many many moons.

    happyfeet (71f6cb)

  25. “Hey, snips. My favorite line was your claiming that President Obama was enjoying “rock solid support.””

    Despite what the Republican hucksters are peddling Obama is holding solid at 50% approval.

    The same hucksters who have driven the Republicans off the electoral cliff in the past 2 elections, btw.

    snips (6a0094)

  26. Holding solid? Really?

    You didn’t look at it before. Here it is again:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    You are kinda funny. Especially when you commented about me “stamping my little feet.”

    It’s the projection.

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  27. pssssssssssssssssst……
    You lost.
    Thus: losers.
    Roughshod over public opinion? I think the public weighed in on that one a year and a half ago.

    larry reilly (fadcab)

  28. In sum, the trendlines for Democrats are bad, and — barring a major, unforeseen event — unlikely to improve by November

    where is Osama bin Laden when you need him?…..lol!!

    Polygamist (aa402f)

  29. #25 is also funny. But then, there is the source.

    Don’t worry, snips! You have LR and imdw and DCSCA on your side! Fight the power!

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  30. What the Dems are not considering is the fact that while there are 7 months left to the election, only 2-3 of those months have the capacity for significant public attention to politics.

    You know, that’s the same amount of time the GOP will have to convince the public to drop a law that was debated for more than a year, end all the new rights that come with that law,including covering sick children (which insurers now say they will definitely do), then decide to debate for another year or so in an effort to pass a law that covers fewer people. Meanwhile, the GOP still must mention “jobs,jobs,jobs,” interspersed with the party platform, “Hell no, you can’t!”

    Tall order, while fending off sex club charges or whatever nonsense the RNC comes up with next.

    Myron says, "We let 'em off the hook" (3d5c6b)

  31. If that is actually Myron, I am reminded of Lloyd Bridges’ comments in “Airplane.”

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  32. Just like clockwork, Muron comes in to drag out the sick children as campaign props. But wait, you forgot to add in your awesome pollster at Kos, Muron. Is something wrong?

    Dmac (21311c)

  33. Dmac: You have fallen below the standard to where I will expend any time addressing you. Sorry. But I enabled your silliness last time and that was a time-wasting mistake, for which I take the blame, having the rhetorical upperhand. So, this will have to be the last comment from me to you unless you actually have a point of debate to make, as opposed to throwing at me a made-up name, for the purpose of, what? Hurting me? I’m wounded! :)

    Myron says, "We let 'em off the hook" (3d5c6b)

  34. Big Zero won in November ’08 because he had somehow convinced “independents” that he was the guy that would “bring us all together”.

    Now that they – along with the rest of us – have seen Big Zero and the DemocRAT-controlled Congress take their money and their property and redistribute it to their public sector employee constituents, decimate the private sector job-base, while he preens and postures like the insufferable narcissist he is, they are making it known that they have had quite enough of his transformation of our society.

    Big Zero and the other statist clowns are busy building an all-powerful government class that will rule over the rest of us and try to dictate how we live, where we can live, what form of transportation we can use and many other aspects, down to the most minor detail they can get away with.

    GeneralMalaise (c1b78b)

  35. I’m wounded!

    not wounded so much as suffering from garden variety brain damage, most likely from overdoing the auto-erotic asphyxiation while watching Ear Leader speeches on you tube.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  36. “even under a fairly rosy economic scenario”. Do you mean the daily lies that flow from the white house and the band of criminals? The only data I believe is the one which pegs unemployment/underemployment at over 20%. That’s what I see in this area. Even the future/maybe gain of 100 minimum wage telemarketer jobs makes headlines. That’s how bad it really is.

    Scrapiron (4e0dda)

  37. Myron, there will be no health care insurers, only the Marxist government to tell you when to die.

    Scrapiron (4e0dda)

  38. If snips tells you that the ground is “rock solid” under you, be prepared for quick sand.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  39. there will be no health care insurers, only the Marxist government to tell you when to die

    Scrap: Is that what happens in all the other countries with universal health care, which is every western nation? It appears that in the majority of them, their government is telling them to die later in life than when our private insurers tell us to die. If we go by stats, anyway.

    Myron says, "We let 'em off the hook" (3d5c6b)

  40. So, this will have to be the last comment from me to you

    Do we have your word on that? Please?

    for which I take the blame, having the rhetorical upperhand

    And with that clever reposte, the Brave Sir Robin beat a hasty retreat, proclaiming victory while we watched his coattails flapping in the breeze.

    Dmac (21311c)

  41. Dmac: You have fallen below the standard to where I will expend any time addressing you

    Muron has standards? Who knew?

    Dmac (21311c)

  42. “Holding solid? Really? ”

    Yep, Obama’s even up a point since the Health Care Reform bill passed.

    snips (6a0094)

  43. snips has obviously been smoking the bad crack again….

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  44. “I never tire of hearing predictions of upcoming Republican electoral victories.”

    Comment by snips

    That makes two of us, Ms. Snippy!

    GeneralMalaise (c1b78b)

  45. “I never tire of hearing predictions of upcoming Republican electoral victories.”

    Comment by snips

    That makes two of us, Ms. Snippy!

    GeneralMalaise (c1b78b)

  46. [...] This would be really funny — knock-down, rolling on the dance floor hilarious — if it weren’t for the fact that this man is in a position of power in the federal government… are you paying attention, Georgia? [...]

    ROFL — Not an April Fools’ Day Prank, but Uttered by a Fool: Democrat Rep. Hank Johnson on Guam Tipping Over (video) « Frugal Café Blog Zone (a66042)

  47. Told ya…

    GeneralMalaise (c1b78b)

  48. It is an interesting side-effect of the InterNet (which almost-President Gore must greatly regret having invented by now) that more and more people are getting access not only to more and more information but also to more and more sources to corroborate or confound said information …

    It has started the downfall of the Cult of AGW … and seems to have started a remarkably good job on the pulling aside of the curtain behind which the Dems do not want us to look …

    Alasdair (e7cb73)

  49. #

    there will be no health care insurers, only the Marxist government to tell you when to die

    Scrap: Is that what happens in all the other countries with universal health care, which is every western nation? It appears that in the majority of them, their government is telling them to die later in life than when our private insurers tell us to die. If we go by stats, anyway.

    Comment by Myron says, “We let ‘em off the hook” — 4/1/2010 @ 6:40 pm

    It doesn’t seem like you’re responding to the claim. But there’s an inherent problem with civil rights when the government tells you when you’re cut off from treatment.

    There’s no such problem with you contract with an insurer, and the terms of your K lead to you being cut off under some scheme. It also sucks, but in a fundamentally less awful way, since you had a choice.

    Death Panels are a legitimate concern. Democrats got so freaked out about it, even killing a section of legislation over it (proving just how valid a claim it was), but at the end of the day, a lot of people just don’t think their state should be dealing with that kind of decision.

    That’s something the left doesn’t really get. We think there are lines that government shouldn’t cross. Even if you can name some good result in some cases of government being in my business (these claims are usually unrealized), we think government’s relationship with the people should be maintained with the people on top.

    Oh well, you claimed some statistics exist, but you’re just full of it. The US has much higher life expectancies when you control for our amazing diversity and our much more aggressive early life care. Our way was a lot better than the marxist way.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  50. that’s the same amount of time the GOP will have to convince the public to drop a law that was debated for more than a year, end all the new rights that come with that law,

    The GOP won’t end all the new rights. There were a couple of good ideas in this disaster. Why end those? We’ll keep the good stuff, while canceling the stuff the people are largely asking the GOP to repeal. They are already convinced, you see.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  51. “that’s the same amount of time the GOP will have to convince the public to drop a law that was debated for more than a year”

    Democrats talking amongst themselves behind closed doors does not count as debate in my mind.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  52. The populace is turning against the Dems and the Dems are lashing out, ridiculing the folks and doing their best to demonize all who disagree with them.

    They can’t help themselves… it’s their nature.

    GeneralMalaise (c1b78b)

  53. dustin – Myron is not interested in the details. He has no command of the details, just empty, debunked talking points.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  54. Although snips is a Jew-hating dog-killer, he has a point buried in his almost incoherent postings.

    Elections are not decided by polling or statistics. They’re usually decided by demographics. The great expanse of this nation is no longer ruled by the people, it’s ruled by the power elite of its population centers.

    Snips and his ilk think that’s a good thing. It may be. I don’t know.

    But America is not Europe and Texas is not Hawaii. Forcing every state to be the same may not result in the way that snips, imdw, Myron and others hope.

    But, maybe it will.

    Ag80 (f67beb)

  55. “Democrats are beginning to admit things are looking bad for them in the midterm elections…”

    One can only hope.

    Dave Surls (d93895)

  56. Why didn’t the democrats who were insane for government health care just move to a state with a Universal system?

    Why can’t the states just do things however they want?

    Does it really matter to Obama how Kentucky or Oklahoma deal with health insurance? Why? He’s a president of a FEDERAL government. I guess the civil war ended that, but it’s pretty annoying when huge issues like this come up, where it would be great if different folks tried different solutions.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  57. “Why didn’t the democrats who were insane for government health care just move to a state with a Universal system?”

    Because the Democrats believe in bipartisanship.

    “The populace is turning against the Dems ”

    That’s why Obama’s approval rating has gone up since the Health Care Reform bill passed.

    snips (6a0094)

  58. Because the Democrats believe in bipartisanship.

    Quite obviously they don’t.

    Dana (1e5ad4)

  59. “..Yep, Obama’s even up a point since the Health Care Reform bill passed….”

    Do you mean the health care bill where the folks who disapprove of it have 10 percentage points over those who seem to like it?

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

    Yeah, that health care bill.

    One point approval increase for the President? Please link to an aggregate poll. Instead of the one poll with which you happen to agree.

    By the way, which was the poll where you found that? Link, please. I sure hope that the sampling was not unusual, or the pollster has any unusual biases.

    That’s what is so amusing about you: your abject hypocrisy (coupled to your wilfull ignorance of literally anything technical).

    Weren’t you the one slamming Rasmussen for being “Republican”? Yet when you find a single poll with a whole point increase–you crow victory.

    Again, look to the aggregate polls.

    The only thing that is rock solid is your partisanship.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  60. By the way, even though the snipster doesn’t like it, everyone should go to this link:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    And then notice the past year and a half. You can even scroll around the graph to get some details.

    Rock solid support!

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  61. Sure Obama’s approval dropped after he was elected, but his approval is about the same today as it was last summer.

    Poor Republicans, always living in the past.

    snips (6a0094)

  62. Like a rock. I was strong as strong can be.

    Pan to a Chevy Van, flying through the mud with great glory.

    Like a rock. Nothing ever got to me.

    The truck breaks down and bursts into flames.

    Rock solid support often reminds me of sleeping on the ground, snipe.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  63. I’ve owned a GM car or truck for over 40 years and a Suburban/Yukon for the last 30. Every one of them came with a lousy alternator. I’ll miss my GM trucks now that I’ve sworn off GM, but I won’t miss the alternators.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  64. DRJ, you were talking about a Mercedes to replace your Suburban. Perhaps you should consider an interest free Toyota SUV? I’m finding it really tempting.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  65. People are already starting to love this health care bill. That’s why Obama is on the road giving speeches about it and its brilliant design. The taxes start now, but benefits come later. Sheer genius. No wonder Barcky out there still demonizing his opponents and mocking the pollsters. He knows people hate the bill and he’s in deep doo doo.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  66. #61: well, snips is mental.

    “…Sure Obama’s approval dropped after he was elected, but his approval is about the same today as it was last summer….”

    Go to the aggregate poll from RCP I posted. Remember, snips, it is an aggregate poll, averaging well over a dozen independent polls. No “Republican Rasmussen” business.

    16 June 2009: Approval 60.5%. Disapproval 33.5%

    1 April 2010. Approval 48.4%. Disapproval 46.4%.

    Now, everyone knows that you are a partisan hack, but c’mon. Don’t you feel embarrassed?

    Rock. Solid. Support.

    And “about the same” clearly means something quite different to you than it does to other people.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  67. Dustin,

    I still like Mercedes. In addition, a family member (also a former loyal GM owner) recently bought a BMW sedan and I’m very impressed with it, so I’ll probably look at those brands first. They don’t make SUVs that are as big as I like but that’s the breaks. Toyota and Ford make bigger SUVs that are the size I like and both are companies I’d like to support, but I’ve never liked the way they ride.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  68. Rasmussen is worse than Hitler. Democratic Underground has Obama polling at 132% Approval.

    What’s interesting about snipe is that he’s not really even interested in the problems with Obama’s policies, such as the deficit or the lack of transparency. Even the partisan has to realize that Obama has broken many specific promises, such as a health care reform with no Hillary mandate.

    Snipe just cares about attempting to rub it in that ‘we won’ and pretend they are still winning. Where does that come from? Is this what it means to ‘punch back twice as hard’ and ‘get in their faces!’ and ‘g.d. America’ and other Obama favorites?

    It’s like Snipe has given up on the idea of explaining why his policies are a good idea. To anyone.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  69. Dustin

    Obama made alot of statements in the first two debates – I posted them over there at the last thread

    This one is especially vapid

    But I think it’s important just to remember a little bit of history. When George Bush came into office, we had surpluses. And now we have half-a-trillion-dollar deficit annually

    11 minutes later the liar from Chicago said this as well:

    Well, I think it starts with Washington. We’ve got to show that we’ve got good habits, because if we’re running up trillion dollar debts that we’re passing on to the next generation, then a lot of people are going to think, “Well, you know what? There’s easy money out there.”

    EricPWJohnson (95a477)

  70. even though the half trillion dollar deficit was actually a revenue bill created by Pelosi and Reed and he voted for.

    Bush had nothing to do with it other than to Administer it – sure he could have vetoed it and we could have given Iraq to the Iranians who would be marching into Saudi about right now and oil would be over 300 dollars a barrel – but I digress…

    EricPWJohnson (95a477)

  71. EPWJ, I liked that list you had. I should go bookmark it, actually. Did you see the NRSC’s April Fools video? I hope the GOP is smart enough to have more fun with Obama’s promises.

    DRJ, I drive a Ford right now (and I love it), but it’s not exciting. Toyotas aren’t either.

    You only live once, so if a quality driving experience is important, the Merc is probably worth the amazingly un-Dustinian price.

    John Carter (or one of Texas’s awesome old bastard Congressmen) said the Suburban was the official state vehicle. I wish it were a Ford.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  72. Parsnips – Care to put someone else’s money where your mouth is, and bet on who fares better in the Nov elections?

    JD (37cd91)

  73. it will be a cold day in hell before this household purchases or leases anything made in a UAW factory, unless we decide to own a classic car as a hobby/toy, but that’s not even on the radar with the current economy. we have two Mercedes and a Nissan pickup as my beater, but its been sitting in the driveway for a year.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  74. snips:

    What happens when everyone agrees with you? What happens when we all like the same bands and read the same books and everyone dresses the same as you, and looks like you and lives the same way you do?

    What happens when we’re all exactly the same as you? When you’re not smarter than everyone else, is it all good then?

    Is that your world?

    Because, I get the feeling that every post you make here has an unfinished thought: “Shut up. I’m right.”

    Sorry, but I don’t want to live in your world.

    Ag80 (f67beb)

  75. Dustin,

    I believe the term is the National Car of Texas, and it is (or was).

    Your link is really bringing back memories for me … like the Valentine’s Day spent in a Pizza Hut in Roswell NM after our alternator caught fire 15 miles outside town. That was almost 30 years ago, proving this isn’t a new problem.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  76. DRJ – I would highly recommend the Lexus RX400 or the 470. Not sure I could say anything bad about them.

    JD (37cd91)

  77. Now, everyone knows…June 16 is in the spring.

    August 19th of last year approval – 51.4%

    Approval today – 48.4%

    Oooh! Obama’s approval is down a whole 3 points (and trending up) in 7 months!

    snips (6a0094)

  78. My husband is the Toyota person, JD. It’s the only thing left in life that we disagree on, so I can’t give in!

    DRJ (daa62a)

  79. snipe, you know, it’s actually pretty significant to be below 50% approval in a democratic culture.

    When you consider that our nation is divided, it’s particularly significant that Obama’s disapproval is so high. But like I said, it’s like you refuse to even try to justify Obama’s behavior. Why is that? Why not have some empathy for people who aren’t like you?

    ==

    My family had just bought a Chevy Blazer, and 2 days later it broke down in the parking lot of Astroworld. We had taken a couple of kids from a friend’s family with our family to the park, and were stuck in an empty parking lot waiting for a wrecker. The car, I think a 1990, had 30 miles on it, and a cracked block.

    It also had several alternators in its amazing life. Not as amazing as an alternator fire, I have to admit. I stuck a nickel in the DC outlet and totally f’ed that car up. I can imagine a Grey’s Anatomy style show, but with Mechanics dealing with insanely screwed up cars bursting into flames or broken down right off the lot.

    GOODWRENCH 1999

    Valentines Day in Roswell? Sounds like a perfect setting for a little drama.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  80. Hey snips.

    Everybody except Merriam-Webster. But I guess you are smarter than that.

    I see you still don’t want to go to the RCP site. And deal with your own partisan dishonesty.

    The amusing part is how going up one point helps define rock solid support to you, but going down three points is no big deal.

    Your words, pal.

    Nothing but a little troll. I was curious how much more you would embarrass yourself. There apparently is no end to your silliness.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  81. There is no place more miserable or hotter than stuck in the Astroworld parking lot with kids in the Summer.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  82. “I see you still don’t want to go to the RCP site.”

    I went there, and got the data that shows Obama’s approval has only fallen 2.8 points in the past 7 months.

    Thanks for the link.

    snips (6a0094)

  83. There is no place more miserable or hotter than stuck in the Astroworld parking lot with kids in the Summer.

    you say that only because you have never been to Ft. Irwin. :-D

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  84. one thing you gotta admire about Rocky, besides the magnificent hair, is that s/he/it sticks with the meme no matter what. this lemming like devotion would be amusing if it weren’t so pathetic.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  85. snipe, you mean 22 points? It’s fallen more like 30+ points, but since last summer it’s fallen 22 points. It’s been proven, and you’ve admitted to checking out the link. So you know it.

    I realize you’re just being stubborn now, which is why you refuse to answer my question about why you want to bring this up in every thread. But then, you refused to answer my initial questions too. After demanding Eric answer some unfair question (1 or 2! 1 or 2!!!!!!!) about 600 times.

    I guess you are really getting in our faces and punching back twice as hard, though.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  86. DRJ

    1956 Chevy Belair 4 door – for 7 or 8 thousand it can be updated – for 4000 the engine can be reworked, rebored, gas milage is surprising excellent car – very safe – alot of power, room for 8 – and it will be the only one in the parking lot and unfortunately – is bulet proof (yes I drove one in New Orleans for a decade)

    EricPWJohnson (95a477)

  87. 1 April 2010. Approval 48.4%. Disapproval 46.4%.

    I guess the Obamabots can feel some confidence or relief about things because for the big joke now in the White House to be getting positive feedback from 48% of America is at least 25% too high. Then again, I’m sure a good portion of that 48% has a mindset similar to what animates voters found in cities like Detroit or countries like Mexico or Venezuela. IOW, a place can be a crap hole for decades and decades, and yet enough voters still fall for the notion that liberalism somehow absolves everyone of blame and responsiblity. And so the blind leads the blind, and stupid does as stupid says.

    Mark (411533)

  88. You know, it’s one thing to be annoyed that the voters were duped into Obama in 2008. If they actually want him again in 2012, that’s democracy and I’m wrong about a lot of things.

    Everyone knows he’s very weak politically and may face a primary challenge. He’s admitted he’s willing to be a 1 term president. Like Polk, he got his big initiative completed. But the GOP has to put up a credible opponent, or all this renewed enthusiasm for limited government is for naught.

    And the only man for the job is John Mccain. Oh, it’s April 2nd already? Never mind that last part.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  89. “snipe, you mean 22 points? It’s fallen more like 30+ points, but since last summer it’s fallen 22 points. It’s been proven, and you’ve admitted to checking out the link. So you know it.”

    Dustin,

    51.4 minus 48.4 is only a three point drop since last August for Obama.

    Unless you’re using some kind of new math that’s only taught in the Theory of Evolution hating schools?

    snips (6a0094)

  90. 16 June 2009: Approval 60.5%. Disapproval 33.5%

    1 April 2010. Approval 48.4%. Disapproval 46.4%.

    You’re just a nutcase, snipe

    dustin (b54cdc)

  91. Poor little snips. He got skooled. I like how he defines summer to help himself.

    But he doesn’t have any choice. Look at how the numbers have been dwindling, that he continues to call—”stamping his little feet”–as rock solid support.

    I mean, compare 1 June (60.7%) to 1 September (51.5%). And remember that he has been claiming “rock solid support” not simply over a few months, but the long term. “Trending up” was the silly phrase he was using over the past couple of weeks.

    Right.

    Either we have someone who has something wrong with his brain, or a very childish troll.

    But why not both?

    Snips, you are embarrassing. Go away for a while, would you? Who are you convincing of anything, other than you are acting like a troll?

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  92. And again, you already granted the validity of the source and even said thanks.

    So you have absolutely no rationale for not accepting my figures, except that you don’t like them and will continue to simply ignore them.

    I’m sure you also think Bush stole both his elections, and will say the same about 2012. Ignore it ignore it ignore it. But people have a problem with Obama’s honesty and performance.

    As I say, you seem to only want to discuss one topic, Obama’s amazing popularity, in every thread. Even a thread about how the democrat pollsters call their current situation “catastrophic”.

    And if you actually read the post, which I realize you don’t need to do when you always make the same comment, you see that the democrats have never polled worse with Gallup (a poll that generally is better for dems than the elections).

    In short, you lose this argument.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  93. Oh, and snips? During the month of August itself, the numbers dropped from 54.1% to 51.2%. So I call your 3 point drop a six point drop. Not surprised that you pick the dates that help you the most. But me? Despite your laughable comment about “trends,” I am looking at trends. Whoops. Your guy is in trouble.

    Excuse me, he has rock solid support.

    Silly, silly troll.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  94. Stamp your little feet all you want, Eric, you can’t change the fact that President Obama’s approval:

    1. Has only fallen 3 points since August 19th of last year.
    2. Is on the upswing now.

    snips (6a0094)

  95. DRJ…Go for the gusto, and the Benz GL!

    AD - RtR/OS! (f793c7)

  96. But those facts are less important than the facts that his approval has dropped by a few TENS of percents over his term, and is on the downswing if you don’t focus like a laser on whatever tick you’re looking at.

    You can cherry pick dates all you want, but you ignore everyone else’s dates (with facts you can’t change, either such as the 22 point drop since last summer).

    No president has ever lost popularity this quickly and severely. It’s never happened. You’re making probably the worst possible argument you could ever make for Obama. Are you saying the democrat pollsters are part of a conspiracy? They think they have a problem and are in a massive downswing. Oh, that’s right, you’ll ignore this.

    I asked you if you thought Bush stole his elections. Respond, please.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  97. “…Because the Democrats believe in bipartisanship…”

    Bipartisanship to a D is when the R’s agree with them.

    When the D’s disagree with the R’s, they’re just demonstrating patriotism.

    AD - RtR/OS! (f793c7)

  98. Hey, snips, you could take a vote around here and ask who is stamping their little feet.

    It’s not me. You must be really embarrassed to carry on this way.

    I think that your new name shouldn’t be “Rock Solid.” I think “Upswing” is a good name, too.

    Althought “Innumerate” is a better descriptor.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  99. Dustin, this character is like Intelliology. You ask him questions and he starts trying to change the subject and issue snotty comments.

    They are all scared about their Hope and Change not turning out quite the way they had planned.

    After all, why do you suppose so many deeply partisan trolls have been here recently?

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  100. How about “Twit”?

    AD - RtR/OS! (f793c7)

  101. AD, by this point everyone can see the person is just playing games. I mean, it was clear before, but the “rock solid” and “upswing” comments are just about as funny as “I work here is done.”

    Except I’m sure this troll won’t vanish. Unfortunately.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  102. we’d have to double check, but i’m pretty sure “Douche Bag” is available too. :-D

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  103. Too bad we just can’t call a “cleaner”?

    AD - RtR/OS! (f793c7)

  104. “No president has ever lost popularity this quickly and severely.”

    Obama is more popular now than Ronald Regan was at the same point in his first term.

    snips (6a0094)

  105. I don’t know who this Ronald Regan is. But I would love to see some linkage. There is something about this guy that just makes me suspect his mastery of statistics is a bit off.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  106. Of aggregate polls, snips. Aggregate polls. You do know what that means, I hope.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  107. “No president has ever lost popularity this quickly and severely.”

    Obama is more popular now than Ronald Regan was at the same point in his first term.

    I don’t understand. How does that refute my point that you quoted? And I noticed you ignored every point I made. Mine are pertinent points, about the actual situation the democrats claim they are in, rather than cherry picking some data to attempt to find something to gloat about. No president has ever lost popularity as severely as Obama. 76 to 40 something.

    As I’ve said many times, I don’t even get the relevance of this. You bring it up in every thread and ignore the topic. The democrats keep saying that they are in catastrophic trouble.

    Oh, and you think Bush stole the 2000 and 2004 elections (you refuse to deny this)? If so, then I guess your analysis should predict a similar outcome for Obama in 2012 as Kerry had in 2004. Thems the breaks when you attempt to ignore reality.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  108. Reagan lost about 12 points in this period, btw. Obama: more than double that.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  109. Since snips seems to need to focus on stone-analogies, rather than talking about Obama’s ratings being “rock solid”, we can go for the accurate analogy and say they are “scree solid” … after all, that’s just rock in another form, is it not ?

    Alasdair (205079)

  110. Pollster.com finds similarities in Obama’s and Reagan’s first term polls, and now both are polling at about 47% approval after 14 months. (In Gallup’s ratings, Obama got a post-health care bounce to 51% but his rolling average remains around 47%.) If history repeats itself, the deciding factor will be the economy.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  111. “The democrats keep saying that they are in catastrophic trouble.”

    The Dems might be in a little trouble if the election were held today, but it won’t be.

    Even the Dem quoted in the original post agrees with me that the rapidly recovering economy will boast the Democrats come election time, probably enough for another win.

    snips (6a0094)

  112. Amazing that Bush was polling under 30% yet most Senate seats that went blue did by fractions of points

    These are coming up in the next 4 years – the odds that the Dems will hold the Senate will shrink as fast as the dollar as oil is rising mainly due to the weakness of the flood of new bucks into the world financial system

    People forgt the swing had more to do with 4 dollar a gallon gas than all the other issues combined…

    EricPWJohnson (95a477)

  113. Well, at least you’re responding a little. BTW, I sincerely thought your handle was snipe. I just have poor vision. Very poor.

    I know that Reagan went from 62 to split (where I got my approximate 12), but between now and November 2010?

    How is the economy going to recover? Let’s look at how Reagan did it.

    William A. Niskanen, one of the architects of Reaganomics, summarizes the policy as “Reagan delivered on each of his four major policy objectives, although not to the extent that he and his supporters had hoped”, and notes that the most substantial change was in the tax code, where the top marginal individual income tax rate fell from 70% to 28%, and there was a “major reversal in the tax treatment of business income”, with effect of “reducing the tax bias among types of investment but increasing the average effective tax rate on new investment.”[2][3] The effect was primarily a change in the composition of tax revenue, towards payroll and new investment, and away from higher earners and capital gains on existing investments, with comparatively small effect on overall tax revenue: the changes “reduced the federal revenue share of GDP from 20.2 percent in fiscal 1981 to 19.2 percent in fiscal 1989,” a 5% reduction.

    Also, oil prices dropped.

    He lifted remaining domestic petroleum price and allocation controls on January 28, 1981[5] and lowered the Oil Windfall profits tax in August 1981, helping to end the 1979 energy crisis. .

    The oil aspect alone was major. Note that they are getting higher. Gas is getting more expensive. Obama is failing to open up new energy sources (I am aware of the kabuki crap about offshore drilling).

    Also, the baby boomers entered their prime productive years. now, they are entering their dependency years and we have massive new entitlement programs coming fast.

    Snips, if the democrat are able to do what Reagan did, they deserve reelection, and they will have it.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  114. I suppose George Soros might buy a ton of oil and then sell it real fast to send the prices down.

    But I don’t think his goal is to help Obama at the expense of his portfolio. Quite the opposite. He’s deeply invested in high oil prices and Brazilian drilling to reap the rewards.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  115. Even the Dem quoted in the original post agrees with me that the rapidly recovering economy

    what “rapidly recovering economy”?

    Ellie Light (fb8750)

  116. Greenberg said

    “This is a structural, long-term problem,” he said. “There is a very strong, deep homogeneous opposition to the president.”

    This is not exactly comparable to Reagan.

    Even the Dem quoted in the original post agrees with me that the rapidly recovering economy will boast the Democrats come election time, probably enough for another win.

    Comment by snips

    Sure, somewhere along the lines, someone has to give the democrats a way out of their mess (which Karl characterizes as running roughshod over public opinion for a year, because he is more succinct than me.

    The real problem is that the GOP is going to have to put together some kind of message that the voters will see as credible and attractive. They have smartly, if kinda lazily, taken the ‘repeal that health care bill most of you don’t like’ line. But they need to have a great message about how to fix the economy. And how in the hell can they do that? I think massive cuts in domestic spending and tax cuts, huge tax cuts, for employers (wealth people, sorrrry) are what’s needed. And a major move to lower the price of oil (just think about Iran’s power over Obama right now in this respect).

    I do not think the GOP can credibly promise that solution.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  117. I think you’re selling the American economy short.

    It has thrived under much worse conditions than the Kenyan Socialist is inflicting upon it.

    snips (6a0094)

  118. I never called him a Kenyan. How lazy. It’s a shame Obama’s a secretive weirdo, but he was born in Hawaii.

    The economy has not thrived under much worse conditions. It’s never had this kinda of deficit or unemployment or immediate future entitlement shortfall while thriving.

    And how could it?

    You are quite right that these conditions are mostly inflicted. They don’t have to be here. We could prosper. Let’s hope it does. While the democrats are trying to hold off the massive costs of Obamacare until after the next couple of elections, that’s just not enough. Investors can read the bill and know to, as you say, sell short.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  119. Gosh, I hope you don’t bring to economic projections your amazing skills shown here tonight.

    Rock solid economic growth would be deeply sad by your standards, for example.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  120. If gasoline prices continue their slow march back to $4/gl, and reach – or exceed – that mark in October, no Dem will be safe.
    Plus, as the price of gas goes up, the economic recovery – what there is of one – stalls, keeping more people in the unemployment lines, depressing economic activity, and really pissing people off.
    Hope & Change you can believe in!

    AD - RtR/OS! (8b509d)

  121. I’m waiting for folks to realize that “snips” is “spins” spelled backwards. Any element of truth in his comments is pure coincidence. Why would you expect any challenge to be answered honestly when all he has done is blatantly lie or misrepresent things?

    Play with him all you like. Just realize that he will “Monty Python” (“It’s just a flesh wound!”) forever because that’s all he is here for.

    Stashiu3 (44da70)

  122. And here I thought it might be “parsnips”/alphie yet again.

    By the way, Stashiu3, I have been wondering: didn’t that Intelliology fellow get banned a few weeks ago? I can’t seem to find a search function on PP, so I can’t be sure.

    Anyway, whoever snipperdoodle is, I love the rock solid support business. It’s actually funny, the partisanship and cluelessness are so obvious.

    Eric Blair (ea0564)

  123. Rapidly recovering economy?! In what world do you live, parsnips?

    Ready to bet on the mid-term elections?

    JD (efa573)

  124. CBS just released an erroneous poll

    Obama plummets to 44

    its gotta be a sample error…

    http://hotair.com/archives/2010/04/02/cbs-poll-has-obama-approval-at-new-low-of-44/

    EricPWJohnson (e59716)

  125. Why oh why do we keep being negative?

    President Obama’s overall job approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 44 percent, down five points from late March, just before the health bill’s passage in the House of Representatives. It’s down 24 points since his all-time high last April. Forty-one percent of those polled said they disapproved of the president’s performance

    EricPWJohnson (e59716)

  126. He hit a new low on health care, with only 34% approving of his job performance. Small wonder Obama has taken to campaigning again for health care; he’s getting buried by it

    More uncalled for negativity

    On the bright side – once you hit bottom – your numbers generally improve

    EricPWJohnson (e59716)

  127. From hotair:

    “A drop of five points since the bill passed should show Republicans that the best way to win the next two elections is to promise to repeal ObamaCare.”

    What do you guys think? You think the GOP is going to run with this?

    imdw (2b5cca)

  128. Search was temporarily disabled as part of the site maintenance, to try and isolate where hangups occur. It should return soon.

    Intelliology hasn’t been banned as far as I recall.

    Stashiu3 (44da70)

  129. “Weren’t you the one slamming Rasmussen for being “Republican”? Yet when you find a single poll with a whole point increase–you crow victory.”

    Crow victory??? That’s just Ms. Snips’ “victory mince”…

    GeneralMalaise (556297)

  130. It is still early and I don’t like triumphalism talk at this stage. I do think that, if we can come up with a good platform similar to the Contract with America of 1994, it will be a very good election. Paul Ryan seems to be the brains of the operation. Boehner has done a good job with his public statements. Pawlenty may start to make some inroads with his speeches now. We need a strong candidate in 2012.

    Personally, I think Romney, with his economic background, would be good but he has to solve his “used car salesman” image and he has to stop defending the Massachusetts health plan. What he should be saying is “We tried an experiment and it has not controlled costs so it needs a lot of work and this is not the time to make a national program using the same methodology.

    He could also do a good analysis of the Obamacare plan and point out those provisions which are disastrous and those, like the exchanges, that have some promise. His strong point is as a policy wonk. I wish he would do that and not these vague platitude speeches.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  131. Agree with your take on Romney, Mike K. He has the acumen and honesty to do great things as a leader.

    My fear is that the ignorance, bigotry and disinformation out there about his religion may be too great a hurdle.

    GeneralMalaise (556297)

  132. What happens when everyone agrees with you?

    I guess we could have pulled an April Fools joke yesterday and pose as those who have finally seen the glory of the one, but then the consequences of his antics are too serious to make comedy (other than the need to sometimes laugh rather than cry).

    Cars, I’m having a mental block, there was a big wagon/SUV like thing that finished production in the late 80′s, early 90′s, that had fake-wood panels on the sides (I think fake). I saw an article where there is a fellow who owns a shop that rebuilds them and sells them.

    I guess Ford still has UAW workers, but that is what I intend to buy in the future, help my brother-in-law keep his retirement pension and his step-son employed.

    You may have seen that I like to refer to him as “nips” because he reminds me of some little dog, a Chihuahua or something, that is always yapping ar nipping at your heels. Totally ineffective, absolutely annoying, and but for self control and respect for the dogs owner you would kick a 50 yard field goal with it.

    MD in Philly (59a3ad)

  133. More anti-Obama propaganda from the usual sources…

    CBS POLL: Obama’s Approval Rating Hits New Low. “President Obama’s overall job approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 44 percent, down five points from late March, just before the health bill’s passage in the House of Representatives. It’s down 24 points since his all-time high last April. Forty-one percent of those polled said they disapproved of the president’s performance.”
    H/T-Instapundit

    AD - RtR/OS! (8b509d)

  134. I’m not very good with numbers but: if something is down 3 points, how can that be considered trending upward? Snips just can’t resist getting slapped around here and keeps coming back for more.

    PatAZ (0a77dd)

  135. America’s economy added 162,000 jobs in March, the most in three years.

    Tough to put a negative spin on that number, but I know the patriots praying for America’s to fail will try.

    snips (6a0094)

  136. Changing the topic because you are being spanked is pretty transparent, snips.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  137. snips, The unemployment rate is still 9.7%, unchanged. The real rate is well over 10% and still unchanged.

    Running in place against the wind like in Alice in Wonderland gets you nowhere, no matter how much faster you run.

    PCD (1d8b6d)

  138. PCD, and don’t forget to note that half of those 162,000 jobs are temporary and government jobs. The Census bureau’s hiring showing up. To call the census bureau hiring a sign of economic recovery shows the kind of economic ignorance that Democrats are becoming famous for.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  139. “Changing the topic because you are being spanked is pretty transparent, snips.”

    I never tire of Republican’s constant false declarations of victory.

    The tendency is so prevalent among them it must be genetic…some kind of reality avoiding defense mechanism they’ve evolved (or god gave them out of pity).

    snips (6a0094)

  140. I think the GOP should run an repealing health care, and any other idiotic, job-killing wealth-transferring policy they can identify. They should also run on the fact that many Democrats in Congress don’t understand and don’t care about the Constitution, like the idiot here in Illinois who said he didn’t care about the Constitution when it came to health care, and then identified the Declaration of Independence (life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness) as the source of power to pass the bill.

    Rochf (ae9c58)

  141. The tendency is so prevalent among them it must be genetic

    Yep, it apparently is. Just as I’m sure your belief that your liberal philosophy — your supposed compassion for the common man — must imbue you with great humaneness, when, in fact, there’s a good possibility you’re one stingy, unhappy SOB. A limousine liberal — and one does not have to be wealthy to be one of those — who talks out of both sides of his mouth.

    freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com, Arthur Brooks, April 2008:

    Several years ago I would have told you that liberals have the happiness edge. Regardless of our personal political views, when most academics like me think of an “average conservative,” I have found we tend to conjure up an image of something like the American Gothic: grim, puritanical, and humorless.

    What the actual data on self-assessed happiness show, however, is that conservatives have a substantial happiness edge, at least by the time they grow up.

    For three decades, the General Social Survey has asked a nationwide sample of adults, “Taken all together, how happy would you say you are these days? Would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?” Here is a representative sample of the results:

    • In 2004, 44 percent of respondents who said they were “conservative” or “very conservative” said they were “very happy,” versus just 25 percent of people who called themselves “liberal” or “very liberal.” (Note that this comparison uses unweighted data — when the data are weighted, the gap is 46 percent to 28 percent.)

    • Adults on the political right are only half as likely as those on the left to say, “At times, I think I am no good at all.” They are also less likely to say they are dissatisfied with themselves, that they are inclined to feel like a failure, or to be pessimistic about their futures.

    • It doesn’t matter who holds political power. The happiness gap between conservatives and liberals has persisted for at least 30 years. Indeed, the difference was greater some years under Bill Clinton than it was under George W. Bush. Democrats may very well win the presidency in 2008, and no doubt many liberals will enjoy seeing conservatives grieving out about that — but the data say that conservatives will still be happier people than liberals.

    New York Times, Nicholas Kristoff, December 2008:

    Liberals show tremendous compassion in pushing for generous government spending to help the neediest people at home and abroad. Yet when it comes to individual contributions to charitable causes, liberals are cheapskates.

    Mark (411533)

  142. snips, you whine about “false declarations of victory” but every time you make some claim here, what you’ve been doing is misrepresenting facts. Your repeated, obsessive misrepresentations of Obama’s polling is reaching legendary status here.

    Find some fresher talking points, these are stale.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  143. It’s the phony triumphalism of statewide wins in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts. These elections didn’t happen in snipsworld.

    That being said, the rest of my post is not GOP triumphalism, unless that’s Stanley Greenberg’s new gig. Rather, it is an examination of the Democratic comeback theories, based on the available history and public opinion polling, all of which tend to suggest that Dems have a shorter window to change public perceptions than they are currently suggesting.

    DRJ (#110) notes the similarity Of the Obama and Reagan trajectories. I note in the original post that it’s also similar to the Carter trajectory. The linked article has a graph of all three showing that — even with rosier economic numbers than are currently being forecast — Obama’s approval number is unlikely to noticibly improve by the midterms, with collateral damage to his party in Congressional races.

    It’s thus not surprising that snips wants to change the subject to the unemployment report. And yet (as noted above) the unemployment rate remained stuck near ten percent, even with all those temp jobs for the census and the hires made in March that were not made in february due to the bizzards on the East Coast. As an American, I want to see unemployment dropping, but the March report suggests it’s going to take a while to get job creation at a clip that will push down the rate in a sustained manner.

    Karl (f07e38)

  144. By the way, snips, when you claimed that the job report showed that 162K jobs, did you intentionally omit that the “growth” was mostly temporary and government jobs, that the number of unemployed actually rose from February and that the number of people underemployed involuntarily also rose …

    or were you just clueless about the full report and show up with these incomplete facts because you are an ignorant poseur?

    SPQR (26be8b)

  145. “the “growth” was mostly temporary and government jobs”

    Aaah, yes.

    More of that wonderful nihilism that has served the Republicans so poorly over the past few election cycles.

    Have a look at this chart that shows American job gains/losses over the past few years and come up with something typically gloomy and wrong:

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-indicators/us-economy-adds-162k-jobs-in-march0402/2010-04-02.html

    snips (6a0094)

  146. Shit. All these years I thought nihilism meant you recognized no morality. I’m just an idiot.

    [note: released from moderation. --Stashiu]

    dustin (b54cdc)

  147. Snips, are you the guy who decides if economic news is expected or unexpected? I’m a big fan of your ‘work’!

    dustin (b54cdc)

  148. So snips, we are going with what? ignorant poseur? or are you now admitting that you intentionally omitted the qualifications of the report that contradict your claims?

    SPQR (26be8b)

  149. Even removing the gummint jobs from the data, the private sector added 123,000 jobs, SPQR.

    Again, the American economy’s best performance in 3 years.

    Anymore gloomy and wrong “insights” to add?

    snips (6a0094)

  150. William A. Niskanen, one of the architects of Reaganomics….notes that the most substantial change was in the tax code, where the top marginal individual income tax rate fell from 70% to 28%

    It’s amazing that the economy didn’t do worse back in the late 1970s when the tax rate had reached a truly confiscatory, outrageously high level. So at the end of a day’s worth of productivity, drive and ambition, some folks were left with no more than a puny 30% of what they otherwise earned and deserved? In that regard, America before Reagan was suffering from a pretty good case of Euro-sclerosis.

    With the current guy in the Oval Office — the one who loved or certainly wasn’t repulsed by the rhetoric of “Goddamn America!” — I’d be surprised if we don’t come down with a variation of that disease all over again.

    Aaah, yes.

    Good you agree because your link includes the following:

    Finally, one-third of the jobs added this month came from a 48K increase in government jobs as a result of hiring for the 2010 Census.

    Mark (411533)

  151. What was “wrong” about my comment, snips? What was factually wrong?

    SPQR (26be8b)

  152. Have a look at this chart that shows American job gains/losses over the past few years and come up with something typically gloomy and wrong:

    Better yet, have a look at these actual stats from the BLS report:

    Underemployment rose to 16.9%

    Government hires went from -22 to +39

    Average hourly earnings went down 0.1%, despite average work hours going up 0.1%

    People unemployed 27 weeks or over went from 40.9% to 44.1%–nearly half the unemployed work force.

    Since Sept 2009, temp jobs have risen by 313,000; since January, the number of part-time workers has risen from 8.3 million to 9.1 million.

    From the report: “About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in March, compared with 2.1 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

    Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in March, up by 309,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.”

    Asking you about economics is like asking an alcoholic about sobriety. Furthermore, with state and municipal tax receipts going through the floor, and with the government issuing $200 billion in debt per month (on top of the steadily growing unfunded entitlement obligations running from $60-100 trillion), with no economic engine to even begin to address this spending binge, it’s mathematically inevitable that the infrastructure is going to topple. Bernanke can’t print his way out of it, and Obama is stimulating jobs that aren’t actually producing anything other than further consumer and government debt–the very thing that got us in this position to begin with.

    But yeah, recovery is on the way!

    Another Chris (2d8013)

  153. Yeah, we need more than that number in order to stay even–with those numbers of jobs added, unemployment remains the same–what are you going to do with not only the unemployed but all of those new graduates looking for jobs? Health care, government takeovers and cap and trade isn’t going to take care of that, unless the goal is for the entire country to be employed by the government–I think that’s called something other than democracy.

    Rochf (ae9c58)

  154. Evidently “gloomy and wrong insights” are anything that one actually quotes from the jobs report that contradicts snips’ simplistic claims.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  155. 149

    3 years ago the Republicns had control as I recall

    EricPWJohnson (e59716)

  156. Tough to put a negative spin on that number, but I know the patriots praying for America’s to fail will try.

    Just like the Dems did during Bush’s first term, when every month showing increasing jobs was met with derision and claims that the job increases weren’t good enough.

    Were the Dems praying for America to fail back then?

    Some chump (c2555f)

  157. Or, to put it in non-”nihilistic” terms:

    In the past five months US non-farm employment has gone from 130 million to 130 million, under the most extraordinarily stimulative conditions in the history of the world.

    Another Chris (2d8013)

  158. And long-term unemployed increased by 414,000 to 6.5 million, Another Chris.

    Its not a “bad” jobs report but its far, far from a “good” one.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  159. Obama’s policies have cost millions of jobs, and added an ungodly sum to the deficit.

    So if Obama ever does moderate his approach at all, he’s going to easily add millions of jobs and cut the deficit enormously from his worst performance. Sure, it will still be a poor performance, but if you compare to his worst, it will look hopey changey.

    I think snips shows us how cherry picking dates can give the opposite of the truth. To him, Obama’s lowest approval ever, and the largest drop in approval ever, is spun as great Obama news. The massive unemployment growth is spun as the opposite. etc.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  160. Its not a “bad” jobs report but its far, far from a “good” one.

    It’s basically showing that the economy has stagnated. Employers have gotten to the point that they’ve fired as many full-time staff as they possibly can and still remain in business, they are turning to part-time workers to serve as stop-gaps, and are holding off on any significant activity for now.

    Basically all the economic activity the past year has come from government stimulus–hence the $200 billion a month debt bill–and it’s accomplished nothing other than mask the real problem in the system, which is debt across the board.

    That’s why the administration and Congress have put off actually dealing with the jobs issue–they sincerely thought that the stimulus was going to keep the U3 under 8%, and since that’s failed, they honestly don’t know what else to do. The fact that they needed to issue a “jobs bill” is proof enough that the stimulus was a bust.

    The only alternative is to force the banks to put all their toxic crap on their books and deal with the resulting insolvencies, but that is problematic because the government is doing the same thing with Fannie and Freddie’s $6.5 trillion in bad loans–and you can bet that the financial pundits will call them on it. So instead we get this “extend and pretend” nonsense and blubberings from snips that Happy Days Are Here Again.

    Another Chris (2d8013)

  161. SPQR, that is extremely frustrating. All the stimulus and bloated programs are creating is statistics for politicians, and when they are done, no actual good was done.

    I’ve never seen so many reasonable people so concerned about the future of this country, while the government so blatantly wastes money.

    dustin (b54cdc)

  162. It is still early and I don’t like triumphalism talk at this stage. I do think that, if we can come up with a good platform similar to the Contract with America of 1994, it will be a very good election.

    Mike K, there is indeed a Contract FROM America in the works and it’ll be released on April 15 in over 80 different locales. And it’s not too late for you to be part of the creating process. Self-link.

    John Hitchcock (f21e43)

  163. Comment by snips — 4/1/2010 @ 4:14 pm

    Give us your best guess about November, e.g. Dems pick up 10 seats, Dems pick up 20 seats, etc.

    Gerald A (138c50)

  164. “Mike K, there is indeed a Contract FROM America in the works and it’ll be released on April 15 in over 80 different locales. ”

    I think all most Americans remember from the Republican’s failed 1994 Contract with America is a bunch of politician who said they’d leave Congress after three terms trying to hang on to their government jobs using any method available and Newt Gingrich boning his secretary while his wife was in the hospital with cancer.

    snips (6a0094)

  165. Were the Dems praying for America to fail back then?

    If it’s true that liberals are always more gloomy than conservatives, regardless of prevailing political conditions, then some of the growing mood of “country on the wrong track” detected in polls a few years ago may have been a preview of what we’re facing now. IOW, add in the always sour attitude of the left — just nominally helped by Obamaism — throw in the generally upbeat attitude of the right — but now being undeniably negatively affected by idiotic Obamaism — and, voila, you get an odd combination of a seesaw where both sides are tipping downward.

    I do recall polls more than 3 or 4 years ago that reflected an increasingly unhappy public. I’d go “huh?!” because economic factors of rather low unemployment and growing wealth — although it was a bubble — at the time suggested many people’s drooping attitudes must have been a case of “Nervous Nellie.” Even more so since I sensed that much of the higher level of unease wasn’t so much due to the Iraq War or soaring gas prices as much as a fear that the party was about to come to an end.

    A few years later, a plurality of Americans chose to vote into office President “Goddamn America” and a bunch of liberals. So now the mood of the electorate a few years ago has more reason to be in sync with the way things are right now. It’s almost like we wanted a reason to be downbeat, and, by golly, we went out of our way to ensure that’s exactly what would happen.

    So the saying of the day is: “Be careful of what you wish for. You just may get it.”

    Mark (411533)

  166. Andwuu, you really should leave. Nothing you say has any value whatsoever. And since you’ve been banned, you should learn something about integrity instead of creating so many socks just to throw your brain-dead drivel where it’s not wanted to begin with. I work is done.

    John Hitchcock (f21e43)

  167. That was quite a sentence, snips. I mean Andrew. I mean parsnip. I mean alphie.

    Um. Ever take English composition?

    Just asking.

    I’m sure you had rock solid performance in that class.

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  168. “…some kind of reality avoiding defense mechanism…”

    Snips never fails to write the most unintentionally funny material.

    What a prat.

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  169. CBS backs up Rocky’s claim of “rock solid support” for Ear Leader…

    if, of course, by “rock solid” you mean “dropped five points since late March”….

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  170. Cling to those outliers, red.

    It’s the Republican way!

    snips (6a0094)

  171. See, all “Rock solid snips” is interested in is ad hominem attack. That and trying to rewrite history – “failed” Contract with America … ROFL.

    The bottom line, snips, is that you really don’t have a clue what you are talking about. You don’t even understand the jobs report you yourself brought up. There is a cost to lapping up the crap Gibbs puts out.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  172. “…Cling to those outliers, red….”

    Again, I am starting to think it is performance art. The guy cannot be that dim and unaware of the irony of his own comments, can he?

    SPQR, I think you give this fellow too much credit. He doesn’t seem to know a darned thing about almost anything. So it is trolldom without thought.

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  173. Comment by snips — 4/1/2010 @ 4:14 pm

    I’ll ask again. Give us your best guess about November, e.g. Dems pick up 10 seats, Dems pick up 20 seats, etc.

    Gerald A (138c50)

  174. 3 years ago the Republicns had control as I recall

    Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid assumed control of Congress on the first working day in January, 2007.
    Every bit of financial legislation since then is theirs – lock, stock, and deficit – and so much more.

    AD - RtR/OS! (8b509d)

  175. Hey, speaking of “trending up”:

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/300153.php

    Of course, trollito will now claim that a particular poll doesn’t matter. Except when it does.

    Eric Blair (c8876d)

  176. [...] Despite such protestations, Ali’s “educated guess” about the midterms sounds quite a bit like the spin Pres. Obama has been feeding nervous Dems: “The big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.” There are some fairly obvious questions that might be raised against that theory, but for the moment, let’s set aside those related to Obama’s approval level, the generic ballot, etc. [...]

    The Greenroom » Forum Archive » The dKos/R2K poll’s senior discount (e2f069)


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