Patterico's Pontifications

2/28/2010

Health Care Votes in the House (Updated)

Filed under: Health Care — DRJ @ 3:58 pm

[Guest post by DRJ]

Does Speaker Pelosi have the votes to pass health care legislation in the House? Yes and No:

I’d feel a lot better if the Democrats were counting on Reid for votes instead of Pelosi.

— DRJ

UPDATE — On the other hand, Pelosi lost another “Yes” vote today:

“Today, Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s retirement takes effect as the veteran Democrat devotes his full time to running for governor of Hawaii. Abercrombie voted for the House bill, so that’s one more “yes” vote that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi won’t have if she hopes to pass health care using reconciliation.

Pelosi has lost three “yes” votes since Nov. 7. The others: Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., who died Feb. 8, and Rep. Robert Wexler, D-Fla., who resigned Jan. 3 to become the head of the non-profit Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation.

The House vote last time was 220-215, so Pelosi will need to persuade some of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House bill to vote for the Senate bill — which is the first step of a two-step reconciliation process. That won’t be easy.”

58 Responses to “Health Care Votes in the House (Updated)”

  1. But Nancy, you ended the summit proclaiming there was no Federal funding for abortions contained in either version. I called you a lying biatch then, and I stand by that.

    sybilll (7d244c)

  2. I updated the post with USA Today’s report on Hawaiian Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s retirement.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  3. Don’t forget the fourth vote she’s lost –
    Cong. Cao(sic) (R-LA)!

    AD - RtR/OS! (dbf36d)

  4. I’ll believe that when I see it.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  5. She doesn’t have enough votes and it’s not even close. I predict they’ll never try. This has all been a Kabuki theater meant to mollify left-wing groups and keep them interested in the fall elections to minimize their losses. They know they are going to lose 20-30 seats in GOP leaning districts. What they want to avoid is a series of losses in what are otherwise safe Dem. House seats along the lines of Brown’s win in the Senate.

    Pelosi got 220 votes first time. But now she’s down to 216 because three Dems have left, and one only GOP vote yes is going to be a no.

    64 Dems voted for the Stupad Amendment on the House Bill. Stupak says at least 12 are certain “No” votes on the Senate bill because of it’s abortion language. Lets say its only 10 — that means Pelosi is down to 206.

    She needs 217 to pass the Senate bill. 39 Democrats voted No on the first bill. She needs to find 11 votes among those 39.

    Of those 39 votes,24 of them are Blue Dogs. And, 31 of them are from districts won by McCain in 2008.

    She gets one vote automatically, because it was Kucinich and he’ll certainly vote yes this time. So she needs 10 more.

    Here is a link (you’ll need to cut&paste) to a NYT page that lists all 39 Dems who voted No. I’m curious to see who on this list people think can be flipped by Pelosi into voting yes.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/08/us/politics/1108-health-care-vote.html

    shipwreckedcrew (3dde12)

  6. She had some votes in reserve last time. She allowed some to vote no because she didn’t need them. On the other hand, the climate is more hostile now for those who want to be re-elected. On yet another hand, there may be enough blue dogs who think they are toast and are looking for jobs in 2011 so they might vote yes to get help from her and Obama in job hunting next year.

    What many people don’t understand is that the insurance industry wants this bill to pass. They want the role of administrator of Obamacare because health insurance is too tough a racket. That could even be behind the 39% Anthem premium rise.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  7. Today the AP ran this headline:

    Pelosi: Lawmakers Should Sacrifice Jobs for Health Care

    In other words, she is so determined that she is going to push Obama/Palosi/Reidcare through that she is asking other Democrats to fall on their swords. I can hear it now “Sure, I know there are hungry lions in the arena, but do this for the cause.”

    So how many of those Democrats are going to be willing to fall on their sword for someone whose own district is safe and for a president that can hope for 8 years, at most, while there is no term limits on their jobs? The loss of all the perks, the respect from others, the free trips to exotic lands and foreign shores, the Congressional cafeteria; oh, the horror.

    Oh, and Kuchinich said the other day, he could not accept the Senate bill, not even in reconciliation, because there is no public option in it. So she may not have Kucinich, and it will depend on just how many Democrats want to stick their heads into the mouths of the lions.

    retire05 (1e885c)

  8. One thing that is helpful is the preview of Obamacare that is Massachusetts. All the stuff they talked about at the “summit” they never mentioned the consequences of the experiment in Brown country.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  9. And she also lost Joseph Cao’s vote and Bart Stupak’s vote and many of Stupak’s anti-abortion caucus.

    Mitch (f22c18)

  10. I think the worse things look for ObamaCare, the easier it will be for Pelosi to convince a few Democrats to vote with her. It sounds backwards but the worse things look for their re-election chances, the more they will rely on Obama, Pelosi, and lobbyists to bail them out with appointed and/or lobbyist jobs.

    So I hope the undecided Red and Purple State representatives haven’t completely given up hope they can be re-elected — especially the ones that voted “No” the first time around — so they will still care about what their constituents want.

    DRJ (daa62a)

  11. “Blue Dog” Rep Ellison voted for the House bill once, and now he’s running for the Senate seat being vacated by Bayh. Another “yes” vote and he’s toast. Count him as a Dem who wants the whole thing to be dropped with no further votes.

    Subotai (1a6549)

  12. retire05, you’re right: It’s martyrdom time. For the children of course. But I don’t think she’s got enough willing sacrificial lambs. They love the perks, and the lack of accountability. Why would they want to give that up indeed!

    Anyway, Pelosi has lost her marbles,

    “Bipartisanship is a two-way street. A bill can be bipartisan without bipartisan votes. Republicans have left their imprint.”

    Dana (1e5ad4)

  13. ““Blue Dog” Rep Ellison voted for the House bill once, and now he’s running for the Senate seat being vacated by Bayh. Another “yes” vote and he’s toast”

    Or his yes vote already toasts him.

    imdw (cf562d)

  14. Maybe it’s just me, but doesn’t Pelosi remind you of the HR director in those corporate videos explaining why it’s so important to turn in your TPS reports?

    And doesn’t ABC come a bit across as the HR vendor hired by the corporation to make sure everyone understands why the TPS reports are so important.

    I’ll turn it back over to imdw now to reiterate how stupid we all are. Since he’s Patterico’s Pontifications’ Lumbergh and all.

    Ag80 (f67beb)

  15. Pelosi does not have the votes yet, or they’d schedule a vote for this week. I think she’ll get them. I’m glad the weight is on her, vs the Senate, b/c of the three major Dems (incl. Reid and Obama), she’s the toughest. And balls are what is required for passage and nothing else. She’s not in an enviable position, but if she can get er done she’ll go down in history as one of the toughest speakers in history, b/c this is historic legislation.

    As for shipwrecked’s contention: “This has all been a Kabuki theater meant to mollify left-wing groups and keep them interested in the fall elections …”

    Uh, no. They can’t keep this up until fall. It will be obvious in the next few weeks whether they’re going to s— or get off the stool. If they choose the latter, they will have scuttled their base for 2010, and they know it. Showing up to the polls with nothing is not the best strategy. Ask the ex-NJ governor: “I’ll do better next time” is not a platform.

    What MIGHT be kabuki theater is talk of the public option. But with this being an all-Dems bill, lock-stock-and-barrel, I see absolutely no reason they shouldn’t go for the p.o. It would be such sweet irony if the Scott Brown election got us the p.o. But I’m not counting on that. One obstacle is that the president seems to be against it and so won’t support it.

    Myron (998393)

  16. Maybe it’s just me, but doesn’t Pelosi remind you of the HR director

    Ag80: It’s just you. She looks like a speaker of the house to me.

    Myron (998393)

  17. Myron:

    Let me be clear:

    She is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. She should be afforded every right and respect that the office holds.

    She also is an elected Representative of the State of California.

    Newt Ginrich was also the Speaker of the House and an elected Representative of the State of Georgia.

    Is it OK if I call him a blowhard?

    Ag80 (f67beb)

  18. Myron — why don’t you look at those 39 members in the link that voted NO last time. Tell me where she gets 10-12 votes among them.

    SHe already knows there is NO chance.

    Is Steny Hoyer really going to help her when push comes to shove? Hoyer wants to be speaker. Pelosi is speaker based on the size of the Calif. caucus and John Murtha’s support.

    Well, Murtha isn’t there anymore. What Hoyer needs is for the caucus to fracture, and then rally around him.

    He’s looking over at Boehner, and sees how easy it can be to slide into the speakership after only a few years.

    There are several Blue Dogs on that list who won very comfortably in 2008. They would be only inviting a general election challenge by voting yes now after previously voting no.

    And, one of those who voted no was quoted this morning as saying he’s never once had to defend his “no” vote in his district. He doesn’t know anyone who has. Why would they invite an attack by changing their vote now?

    And, this analysis leaves aside completely whether there are any other “Yes” votes besides the abortion foes who would like a “do over” combined with a failure in order to buttress their standing with independents in their own district.

    shipwreckedcrew (3dde12)

  19. Ag80: I guess you can call Newt a blowhard if you want. I think he, also, was a bit more than that, however.

    Myron (998393)

  20. Myron:

    Thanks, your permission is greatly appreciated.

    Ag80 (f67beb)

  21. Didn’t Nancy lie about knowing and signing off on CIA interrogations, lie about having an ethical Congress by keeping crooks like Jefferson and Rangel around because they are Dems, and lie about respecting the minority party as she swore in 2006? I’ll just call her a lying bitch.

    Mr. Pink (503ee3)

  22. Subotai @ #11- It’s Ellsworth (D- IN), not Ellison (D-MN).

    Jeff Lebowski (5f8f0d)

  23. I agree with your view about th Health Care Votes. I think Nancy Pelosi lied.

    Allen Dcosta (899882)

  24. I have the sick feeling that they are going to get this passed in the House. It won’t be transparent; it is about more back room deals. Reconciliation will be used and we’ll be screwed.

    The Senate and House Republicans are to blame as well. They are not doing enough to cast light where they can; to get up in front of the cameras and take responsibility for what they have done to get us to this point.

    Does she have the votes? Not yet – but she will get them.

    Corwin (ea9428)

  25. “to get up in front of the cameras and take responsibility for what they have done to get us to this point.”

    Yes the GOP should do more of this.

    imdw (72206b)

  26. Pelosi lied, votes died!

    GM Roper (a0b04a)

  27. “Pelosi: Lawmakers Should Sacrifice Jobs for Health Care”

    Oh, that’s about Dems falling on the sword, not that businesses in America are in complete limbo until Congress, as Myron so eloquently put it, “sh-s or gets off the stool.”

    Excellent.

    em (f595bc)

  28. Warren Buffet just came out saying the current bills need to be recast with much more emphasis on HC cost control. I wonder if this will help give Obama and the Blue Dog Dems some cover to start over or go incremental.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2010/03/01/2010-03-01_warren_buffett_health_care_is_a_national_emergency_and_tapeworm_thats_eating_eco.html

    elissa (2aad45)

  29. Myron wrote:

    Pelosi does not have the votes yet, or they’d schedule a vote for this week. I think she’ll get them.

    I wouldn’t be so sure. People are wise to the crooked deals that got the Dems to 60 (Landrieu, Nelson, the betrayal of Stupak, etc.) and don’t buy the Obamastration’s carpola that this is what they really want.

    I’m glad the weight is on her, vs the Senate, b/c of the three major Dems (incl. Reid and Obama), she’s the toughest.

    That’s partially right. She’s “the toughest,” in the same way that the hulking goon who lurks behind the mob boss is “the toughest.” But funny thing about those goons, they ain’t much when it comes to thinking. That’s why they just do what they’re told by the big boss, who doesn’t have to do his own fighting — an indication of how smart HE is.

    But with this being an all-Dems bill, lock-stock-and-barrel, I see absolutely no reason they shouldn’t go for the p.o. It would be such sweet irony if the Scott Brown election got us the p.o.

    It would be ironic, since the rallying cry for Dems has been to “do it for Teddy,” and it turns out Teddy’s own constituents don’t want it done.

    L.N. Smithee (cf6dfc)

  30. Elissa – I think that should give them pause, rather than cover. The crapola they are pushing does nothing to control costs, and will increase costs to the consumer.

    JD (2c1e5e)

  31. Someone ask Myron if he’s seen that latest poll buttressing his viewpoint from the Daily Kos.

    Dmac (799abd)

  32. He was called on that little problem less than two weeks ago, and after screeching to be proved false, promptly ran away and was never heard from again after sources were provided for same. He always runs away after beclowning himself, only to return later in the hope that everyone’s forgotten about his previous asshattery. It’s what he does.

    Dmac (799abd)

  33. “UPDATE — On the other hand, Pelosi lost another “Yes” vote today:”

    Today wash monthly makes the point that some of these retirements also reduce the number of yes votes required. With a vacancy, the number of votes required to reach majority is smaller.

    imdw (05d41e)

  34. it also means few no votes are needed to block it.

    keep whistling: its a BIG graveyard…

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  35. #33 – you may need to brush up on your math skills. If you keep subtracting 1 from the numerator and 1 from the denominator, the overall percentage (voting for) diminishes. Retirement of yes voting reps will not make it easier for the Dems.

    Corwin (ea9428)

  36. With today’s retirement by the Rep. the number needed to pass or to block is 216.

    bill (81ed23)

  37. “33 – you may need to brush up on your math skills. If you keep subtracting 1 from the numerator and 1 from the denominator, the overall percentage (voting for) diminishes”

    Have I said anything that contradicts this? You’re effectively losing half a vote.

    imdw (270e56)

  38. But with this being an all-Dems bill, lock-stock-and-barrel, I see absolutely no reason they shouldn’t go for the p.o.

    Apart from the fact that the public option is not in either the House or the Senate bill, no, no reason at all.

    Subotai (924368)

  39. #37 – Let’s keep it simple: If you have a committee of 5, and 3 are voting YES, 2 voting NO; then, two of the three YES voters leave, now you have a committee of 3, with 1 voting YES and 2 voting NO.

    No, you did not just effectively lose half a vote. Nor two half-votes.

    I could be wrong about how the House rules work, but any group that continues to lose numbers from just the majority side is losing more than half a vote per.

    That being said, I’m sure they’ll find a way to fill the voids as needed; and those asked to step in will vote as the person who left.

    Nancy will even forego a few botox shots if it means getting this passed.

    Corwin (ea9428)

  40. GOP resignations between now and the vote DO reduce the number of votes Pelosi needs. Today GOP Rep. Nathan Deal resigned from Congress to run for Gov. of Georgia. That means there are now 4 vacant seats — Abercrombie, Wexler, Murtha and Deal. So, the total number of House members is now down to 431, meaning a majority is only 216. When the number was 432, she needed 217 since Legis. doesn’t pass if the vote is tied, and there is no tie-breaking vote in the House like there is in the Senate.

    So, as of this morning, Pelosi does need one less vote.

    shipwreckedcrew (3dde12)

  41. “Nor two half-votes.”

    Two people left, but you only need to convert one no to a yes to now have a majority (2 out of 3). So each of those was a half-vote lost for yes. They were removed from not just the numerator but also the denominator.

    imdw (c5488f)

  42. Is it a majority of seated Reps, or a majority of the House. One number appears to be quite dynamic, while the other, 435, not so much.

    JD (7320ea)

  43. Majority of current members. Vacant seats do not count. So, she needs a majority vote of 431 – 216 – as of this morning after the latest GOP retirement.

    shipwreckedcrew (3dde12)

  44. “Apart from the fact that the public option is not in either the House or the Senate bill, no, no reason at all.”

    HR 3962, which passed the house, contains a Section (section 321) titled:

    “ESTABLISHMENT AND ADMINISTRATION OF A PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE OPTION AS AN EXCHANGE-QUALIFIED HEALTH BENEFITS PLAN.”

    But maybe you don’t count that as a “public option” ?

    imdw (7b07d2)

  45. The whole sorry spectacle of the healthcare debate is taking a heavy toll on Nancy Pilosi, both physically and mentally. She looks strained and desperate. Her eyes constantly flutter, he skin is pallid, and she’s losing weight.

    Pilosi’s husband is rich, so she can use his money to mask the damage. She’s always dressed in expensive outfits and her hair is professionally dyed and groomed, but her body is breaking down, her face shows considerable deterioration, and her mind is slipping.

    Asking her colleagues to go home in body bags for Obama’s lost cause isn’t exactly the sort of leadership House Democrats expected when they elected her as Speaker. The Jim Jones wing of the party is locked into a death spiral and they’re going to take Blue Dogs and moderates down with them in a national suicide pact.

    Rather than give the American people the sort of Healthcare Insurance Reform they want and need, Obama, Reid, and Pilosi are determined to provoke a crisis so they can force their brand of socialized medicine on an unwilling public. This isn’t Democratic, it’s textbook totalitarianism.

    ropelight (2dc4e8)

  46. Imd-dumbass is counting ACORN votes in Congress.

    PCD (1d8b6d)

  47. As Barbie used to say… Math is hard.

    imdw (499eb8)

  48. 47, Glad you admit that you can’t add, subtract or tell the truth.

    PCD (1d8b6d)

  49. She looks strained and desperate. Her eyes constantly flutter, he skin is pallid, and she’s losing weight.

    I think that’s her normal look.

    Subotai (924368)

  50. But maybe you don’t count that as a “public option” ?

    What’s the price of tea in China?

    Subotai (924368)

  51. In theory, the “Public Health Insurance Option” in the House bill is supposed to be self-funding and not subsidized by the taxpayers. Now, it is widely, and probably correctly, assumed that this is just a ruse. But at least in theory this option is “public” only in the sense that it will be available for the public to buy and not in the sense that the public will be forced to pay for it.

    Subotai (924368)

  52. There’s been a lot of misinformation on the MSM as to what the public option entails.

    What I’m trying to get from you is whether you consider what was passed by the house as a “public option” or not.

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    imdw (3f86aa)

  53. Hmm.

    According to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the White House will release a new health-care bill on Wednesday that will be “much smaller” than either the House or Senate versions, according to news reports.

    “In a matter of days, we will have a proposal,” Pelosi said, pointing to Obama’s forthcoming bill. “It will be a much smaller proposal than we had in the House bill, because that’s where we can gain consensus. But it will be big enough to put us on a path of affordable, quality health care for all Americans that holds insurance companies accountable.”

    Subotai (924368)

  54. The White House indicated that two GOP ideas — malpractice reform and insurance purchasing across state lines — would be worked into the new proposal.

    Subotai (924368)

  55. #41 and #47

    “Two people left, but you only need to convert one no to a yes to now have a majority (2 out of 3).”

    You are changing the question.

    The math works this way – assume 9 people with 5 voting yes:
    5/9 = .55
    As YES voters leave:
    4/8 – .50, 3/7 – .43, 2/6 – .33
    The percentage in favor is dropping.

    As NO voters leave:
    5/8 – .63, 5/7 – .71, 5/6 – .83
    The percentage in favor goes up.

    As I first stated:
    “If you keep subtracting 1 from the numerator and 1 from the denominator, the overall percentage (voting for) diminishes. Retirement of yes voting reps will not make it easier for the Dems.”

    Corwin (ea9428)

  56. “You are changing the question.”

    Which question? There’s no doubt that a yes voter leaving means the percent in favor is dropping. That’s another way of saying what I said: that losing a yes voter that leaves a vacancy is losing half a vote.

    “Retirement of yes voting reps will not make it easier for the Dems.”

    Who said otherwise? Maybe you misunderstood when I said “With a vacancy, the number of votes required to reach majority is smaller.”

    imdw (50eb29)

  57. How do we know what this monstrosity says – no one seems to have read it!
    And, it will probably take a corps of Philadelphia Lawyers, and a brigade of One-armed Economists, to come up with a reasonable interpretation of the Sanskrit in which it is written.

    AD - RtR/OS! (aa95b5)

  58. this spin is so old and ridiculous, itfools no one and just embarrasses Pelosi and Dems. Nancy, put up or shut up! if you had the votes, you wouldn’t be crowing about it, you’d just do it.
    By all means, completely obliterate the democratic party by shoving this through if you can. Until that time, shut your lying pie hole before someone drops a house on you.

    made the switch (60044b)


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