Patterico's Pontifications

1/12/2010

The Mass. Senate race… and beyond

Filed under: General — Karl @ 7:13 am



[Posted by Karl]

Whatever the polls may say (and Scott Rasmussen has more on that), the fact that the DNC is sending a senior press aide to Massachusetts to help state Attorney General Martha Coakley fend off Republican challenger Scott Brown tells the world that Democrats are worried. And that was before Brown’s million-dollar money-bomb detonated on Monday.

Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom remains that Brown has an uphill battle at best, now that Bay State Dems are mobilizing to turn out more of their base vote in this special election. Moreover, if Brown wins, it would not be much of an obstacle to Congressional Dems pushing through ObamaCare. There is not even much need for them to resort to measures like delaying Brown’s swearing-in, as the House could be strong-armed into passing the Senate bill, with promises that it will be “fixed” later, perhaps through budget reconciliation.

So what does a victory — or close loss — by Brown mean in terms of the general political landscape? Lefty bloggers see green shoots for the rightroots. TPM’s Eric Kleefeld:

Regardless of whether Brown wins or loses in this Democratic state, one thing is clear: National conservative activists have been able to take a clear interest in this race, and they could mobilize themselves for a cause in a similar way to the liberal Netroots during the Bush years.

Markos Moulitsas tweets, “Scott Brown reminds me of Paul Hackett. Like Hackett, Brown will lose, but grassroots cons learning how to better organize.”

But the implications of the Brown campaign are larger than that. Paul Hackett ran (and lost) in Ohio, a swing state. Brown is running in Blue Massachusetts, for a seat held for decades by a Kennedy. Yet his showing to date is not utterly shocking, because neither the test version of Barack Obama nor ObamaCare are very popular there, just as the bills are starting to come due. The Brown campaign highlights future political problems for national Dems that will remain, regardless of the results of the Massachusetts Senate race.

–Karl

11 Responses to “The Mass. Senate race… and beyond”

  1. Time for the Dems to gin up a scandal. Brown better be prepared.

    davidt (bdd901)

  2. I think that if Brown comes close, even if he loses, it’s going to cause a shockwave in Congress. Democrats who are more vulnerable will be less likely to toe the radical line that Pelosi and Reid have been pushing.

    Steven Den Beste (99cfa1)

  3. The pros who are advising Coakley can’t even spell Massachusetts correctly. That gaffe will be part of the message for the next week.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  4. What I find extraordinary is that a semi-literate, garbage-mouthed hack like Kos is any kind of “player” in the political landscape.

    SPC Jack Klompus (c1922b)

  5. Paul Hackett Lost? I thought the referral was
    to the ex-USC coach…he lost too.

    El Zopilote (3c065d)

  6. The pros who are advising Coakley can’t even spell Massachusetts correctly.

    It’s a great metaphor for how the Massachusetts Democrat establishment has treated the whole Senate race. They were so certain that the “Kennedy Seat” was wholly owned by their party and that whoever won their primary would automatically win the general election that they got careless and sloppy and nominated one of their hack-o-rama politicians for no other reason than that she was a woman and Mass Democrats don’t have a history of allowing women to rise on a statewide level. Now they are saddled with a bad candidate, no real message, and a sluggish party base that will have to be cajoled to come out and vote. I think the Dems will win this one in the end, but they have already had to divert funds from the national party that might have come in handy in Delaware, Connecticut, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, and a host of other states.

    JVW (8704f2)

  7. Coakley’s people must be really rattled, I mean how else do you explain a political campaign ad that missspells the name of the State?

    Dan Kauffman (3c9c17)

  8. Coakley looks flat, off key, in over her head, coddled by MSM journalists and still unable to make a satisfactory connection with voters. Likely it wouldn’t have mattered if the election had remained a Bay State contest. The Democrat machine would have rolled over the opposition’s sacrificial lamb. Conventional wisdom is that it will.

    But, a Tea Party happened in Boston. First, Scott Brown isn’t a GOP insider. He’s an Independent, so it’s understandable the incompetent Republican Party establishment was slow to support Brown, they didn’t have the vision to see the Senate seat could be snatched from complacent Dems. It was a first order failure of political instinct. Late to the party as usual, they do finally see it now.

    However, the clock is ticking, and although Coakley is a few points ahead, and Democrats are rushing to her side, momentum is running strongly in Brown’s favor. Make no mistake, Scott Brown is still a long-shot, but the smart money is taking a very close look at this contest.

    Could a political miracle happen in Bean Town? Not likely, but right now, it’s a definite maybe.

    ropelight (aea828)

  9. It would be complete if they now held a memorial service for Ted Kennedy like the one they gave for Paul Wellstone

    Neo (7830e6)

  10. They got close, Neo.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  11. The incident outside the DC fundraiser could very well be Martha’s Wellstone moment.

    AD - RtR/OS! (1365d9)


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