Patterico's Pontifications

1/2/2010

Obama’s End-of-Year Polls (Updated x2)

Filed under: Obama,Politics — DRJ @ 6:21 pm

[Guest post by DRJ]

Rasmussen’s Monthly Presidential Approval Index hit a new low in December 2009:

Minus 15 for the December 2009 Passion Index (strongly approve vs strongly disapprove).

Meanwhile, Rasmussen lists Obama’s overall approve-disapprove index on December 31 as a minus 7 while Gallup’s end-of-the-month poll has Obama at a positive 9.

– DRJ

UPDATE: So are unhappy Democrats criticizing President Obama for his actions and policies that have dragged down his poll numbers? Not really. Instead Politico reports Democrats are trashing Rasmussen for his polling methods and results:

“Democrats are turning their fire on Scott Rasmussen, the prolific independent pollster whose surveys on elections, President Obama’s popularity and a host of other issues are surfacing in the media with increasing frequency.

The pointed attacks reflect a hardening conventional wisdom among prominent liberal bloggers and many Democrats that Rasmussen Reports polls are, at best, the result of a flawed polling model and, at worst, designed to undermine Democratic politicians and the party’s national agenda.”

UPDATE 2: How can the Obama Administration protect Americans in the War on Terror when they can’t even protect Obama’s image while he’s on vacation?

Obama on Vacation

Our government at work while President Obama is on vacation.

36 Responses to “Obama’s End-of-Year Polls (Updated x2)”

  1. I’ve updated the post with a Politico report regarding how unhappy Democrats are with Rasmussen.

    DRJ (84a0c3)

  2. All dissenting messages must be suppressed, DRJ. That’s the foundation of that reaction.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  3. Yes, the Democrats are real progressives. They will kill messengers with no compunction at all.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  4. The pointed attacks reflect a hardening conventional wisdom among prominent liberal bloggers and many Democrats that Rasmussen Reports polls are, at best, the result of a flawed polling model and, at worst, designed to undermine Democratic politicians and the party’s national agenda.”

    Yeah, particularly the poll that said Obama would beat McCain by pretty much the same margin that ended up being the margin in reality.

    These “critics’ couldn’t be any more like Leninists if they tried.

    Another Chris (56d79a)

  5. I’ve added Update 2 that links to a Big Government report on the Administration’s mishandling of Obama’s vacation since the Christmas Day terror attack.

    DRJ (84a0c3)

  6. It not that reverse racism showing a white person doing house work?

    Or is it proof that Obama doesn’t trust brown people’s?

    No matter how you slice it, its racism!

    ML (f060a0)

  7. [Is] not, instead of [It] not.
    Oh, what the hell, who am I kidding.

    ML (f060a0)

  8. The fact that they are blaming Rassmussen instead of Obama is probably a good thing for the GOP heading into 2010. If getting clobbered in true-blue New Jersey didn’t give them a wake up call then nothing will. Let them blame it on the polls or whatever makes them feel better.

    G Wiz (86b3de)

  9. Yea, I remember all the democrats accusing Rasmussen of their illegitimate polling practices during Bush’s 8 years……

    ……wait a minute….I don’t believe they made any of these accusations while Bush was President.

    Are any of these democrats producing proof that Rasmussen has changed their polling practices or policies since Bush was President???

    Or is it the same baseless,factless,accusations that they make against Fox or anybody else that does not tow the liberals line.

    I wonder if any of the democrats that are so concerned about accurate polling are going to complain about NBC,ABC,and the NY Times using from 8% to 15% sample spread in favor of democrats in their polling?????

    Baxter Greene (af5030)

  10. “I wonder if any of the democrats that are so concerned about accurate polling are going to complain about NBC,ABC,and the NY Times using from 8% to 15% sample spread in favor of democrats in their polling?????”

    And they aren’t the only ones using the tainted sampling methodology.

    GeneralMalaise (68a574)

  11. The pointed attacks reflect a hardening conventional wisdom among prominent liberal bloggers and many Democrats that Rasmussen Reports polls are, at best, the result of a flawed polling model and, at worst, designed to undermine Democratic politicians and the party’s national agenda.”

    Maybe it’s reflective of how the American People actually feel about the DNC’s agenda!

    TC (0b9ca4)

  12. Comment by ML — 1/2/2010 @ 8:01 pm

    I thought that was a photo-shopped pix of Janet Incompetano!

    AD - RtR/OS! (685f75)

  13. She’d probably do a better job behind that desk than the current Moron-In-Chief.

    Captain Ned (28c191)

  14. No, I think it’s 6-to-5 and pick-it.

    AD - RtR/OS! (685f75)

  15. Now, the real cleaning lady….
    (as they used to say on radio)
    Could be, Mr Benny!”

    AD - RtR/OS! (685f75)

  16. Rasmussen surveys likely voters and the others survey either registered voters or citizens at random, both of which tend to have more Democrats, especially in a year when Democrats are less motivated. A couple have been caught oversampling Democrats to make the numbers look better for their guys. One real enemy of Republicans this year could be overconfidence so I am happy to see DailyKos slam Rasmussen.

    MIke K (2cf494)

  17. Time out here folks. Use your heads. We can’t say Democrats are dumb for trashing Rasmussen when Gallup shows him up 9.
    That’s a WHOPPING 16 POINT DIFFERENCE.
    I’d be pissed too if it were the other way around. I’d ask the serious question as to what is going on here. Someone, Rasmussen or Gallup has screwed up big. And it’s time we got to the bottom of it.

    Metallica (e4735c)

  18. Metallica – Read comment 16.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  19. Rasmussen’s “biased” methods called the 2008 election spot on (+3% for Obama). Rasmussen polls for elections, Gallup polls for public sentiment. The two are not the same.

    Further, Rasmussen’s robopolling technique avoids the “Bradley Effect” where some white people shade their criticism of black politicians when talking to live pollsters.

    One possible bias: the robopolls may get responses from busier people, such as people with jobs.

    But I’ve found that Rasmussen tends to call elections pretty closely. The had the Democrats leading by huge numbers in 2008.

    In 2008, Obama had an enormous turnout among young people and blacks, two groups that almost never vote in large numbers. AND RASMUSSEN WEIGHTED THEM IN to get the correct numbers.

    In 2010, it is likely that the youth and blacks will vote in typical low numbers. If any group votes more heavily it will be Medicare recipients (who almost always vote anyway). And if the elderly I’ve talked to are any indication, they’re really very unhappy with the transfer of Medicare funding to Obamacare. Hence the outpouring of “Hell No” voters that Rasmussen is seeing.

    If I was a betting man, I’d bet that Rasmussen’s final numbers for Congress and the Senate are better than anyone else’s.

    Kevin Murphy (3c3db0)

  20. By the way, if you want to get really good numbers, look at the Real Clear Politics average. IIRC, their state-by-state calls were all correct in 2004 & 2008. Only their tossups were, um, tossups.

    Kevin Murphy (3c3db0)

  21. I have an idea. The next time you’re in line somewhere, ask the person next to you if he or she or both has ever heard of Scott Rasmussen or the Rasmussen Poll.

    I say that only to say that perhaps the administration and it’s admirers should pay more attention to matters at hand, rather than if President Obama is still the coolest guy in the clique.

    Ag80 (525921)

  22. ML got it wrong:

    It not that reverse racism showing a white person doing house work?

    Or is it proof that Obama doesn’t trust brown people’s?

    No matter how you slice it, its racism!

    It’s only racism that they are showing a white woman doing a black man’s housework.

    But, far more importantly, it’s blatant sexism! We were told that depicting Mr Obama performing a role with a black stereotype attached — that of shoe-shine boy¹ — was sexist, but here we have a depiction of a white woman doing a task that is stereotypically thought of as “women’s work.”

    I denoubnce President Obama for so demeaning a woman!
    ______________________
    ¹ – Of course, having referred to the shoe shine boy as a “boy,” I must also denounce myself.

    The politically correct Dana (474dfc)

  23. I showed my wife the photo and told her that after Monica Lewinsky that’s as good-looking a woman as would be ever be allowed into the Oval Office. My wife said, “Billy would go for her”.

    nk (df76d4)

  24. Anyone else as shocked as I am that Obama’s policy of “engagement” is not working with N. Korea, Iran & terrorism in general?

    Stan Switek (5bee91)

  25. At least after George W. Bush was through in the White House, they didn’t need a black light to make sure the carpet was clean.

    L.N. Smithee (f53d98)

  26. Anybody here criticize Bush when he went on vacation????

    JEA (146414)

  27. Caught the 1st half of “Invictus” (Morgan Freeman, Matt Damon, director – Clint Eastwood) the other night which tells a sliver of the story of Nelson Mandela first months as President of South Africa.

    Given the current situation of President Obama, I expect Progressives will hate “Invictus” because by contrast, it makes Obama look bad.

    The comparisons with the 1st year of the Obama Presidency end with Obama’s words … “I Won.” Mandela is portrayed as a real post-racial president, while Obama is … not so much.

    Neo (7830e6)

  28. But… but… DON’T THEY KNOW WHO HE IS?!?!

    ‘Iranian legislators on Sunday decided to not allow a visit from Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.), according to Iranian media.

    “Members of the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee (a subcommittee of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission) voiced opposition to the request after studying the issue,” Hassan Ebrahimi, head of the committee, told the semi-official Fars News Agency.’

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/74113-iran-denies-entry-to-sen-kerry

    GeneralMalaise (68a574)

  29. [...] Morrissey and DRJ have both covered the Politico’s indulgence of lefty whining about inconvenient polling: [...]

    The Greenroom » Forum Archive » An in-depth look at Rasmussen and vintage Democratic whine (e2f069)

  30. [...] Morrissey and DRJ have both covered the Politico’s indulgence of lefty whining about inconvenient polling: [...]

    Patterico's Pontifications » An in-depth look at Rasmussen and vintage Democratic whine (e4ab32)

  31. Instapundit is linking to another interesting Rasmussan result, that of the dropping number of people identifying as Democrats.

    I think that the overreaching of Democrats, especially the pork-filled “stimulus” that added a trillion dollars to our deficit is the reason.

    SPQR (26be8b)

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  33. Fascinating … so that’s our Secretary of State’s current hair-do … seems that President Obama has her where he wants her …

    Alasdair (a7420c)

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