Nelson Moves Closer to a Decision
[Guest post by DRJ]
It sounds like Democratic Senator Ben Nelson is moving closer to making a decision on health care:
“Democratic leaders appeared to make progress Friday night in winning over Sen. Ben Nelson to be their 60th vote to pass a sweeping health care bill by Christmas. Nelson, a moderate Nebraska Democrat, is seeking stricter abortion curbs and said he’s been offered ideas that may answer his concerns.”
The report suggests Nelson supports an agreement that would prohibit direct or indirect federal funding of abortion. I can’t wait to see what the left does if that’s true.
Polls show a vote for health care makes it more difficult for Nelson to get re-elected in 2012. If that remains true, he has to decide whether he wants to run for re-election or retire. Thus, Nelson’s biggest decision isn’t about health care, it’s about his future.
— DRJ
its gonna boil down to where he wants to be in the history books….
redc1c4 (fb8750) — 12/18/2009 @ 7:07 pmthe increasingly stenchy stench of Fail what emanates from our little White House has to weigh on Mr. Nelson as well, but I bet he caves.
happyfeet (2c63dd) — 12/18/2009 @ 7:14 pmI bet he caves, too. Maybe he hopes his constituents will have forgotten this by 2012 or that he will have other job opportunities by then.
DRJ (84a0c3) — 12/18/2009 @ 7:35 pmIts interesting how much fighting there is about funding at the margins of the filibuster majority — that can be fixed via reconciliation.
imdw (7cc81b) — 12/18/2009 @ 7:42 pmNelson should have a nice tasty dinner and some red velvet cake for dessert and think sleep on his decision overnight. He will realize the dirty socialists do not have the country’s best interests first and do the right thing.
daleyrocks (718861) — 12/18/2009 @ 8:08 pmI’d give him a cupcake if I thought it would help. Not necessarily a red velvet though.
I’m just being realistic.
happyfeet (2c63dd) — 12/18/2009 @ 8:11 pmMy gift to y’all tonight is part of comment from over at Red State. It was written in response to a post by Dan Perrin, who is the only person in the blogosphere more convinced than Karl that Dems will let this bill fail after all their hard work:
“… we need to stop fooling ourselves. How many times did we say that the Blue Dogs were not going to go along?? And look what happened. Now we are pinning all our hopes on what?? A (Democrat)!!! … I want to believe just like everyone else … But I just don’t think we should be banking on a (Democrat) to give us good news.”
I redacted the anti-Democratic ranting, but I think this is overall good advice for the reds.
I know I don’t bank on any Repub to give me good news. I bank on them to give me a load of bull, a la Jim “Waterloo” DeMint and Clueless Doc Coburn — but that’s not the same thing.
I’m not certain the Senate will get this done by Christmas, b/c of the weather and other moving parts, but I’m sure a bill will pass soon and certainly by the SOTU.
Myron (998393) — 12/18/2009 @ 9:03 pmDRJ: I think you also have to remember that the Senate is even less likely than the House to shift in 2010. Nelson may not want to face the prospect of his every proposal — major and minor — getting the cold shoulder. Of course, even if the Repubs were to take over, it’s not like he’d get any favors from them either, after being used for their toilet tissue.
Myron (998393) — 12/18/2009 @ 9:06 pmMyron,
I think Senators worry about re-election first and foremost, and any worries about how effective they will be in passing legislation is a distant second on most lists.
DRJ (84a0c3) — 12/18/2009 @ 9:16 pmMyron,
IIRC, the last — and only — time I have expressed an opinion about the odds of ObamaCare passing or failing, I had it pegged at about 50/50 (when it included the public option) — and that if the big version of the bill got in trouble, the Dems were more likely to pass even a minor bill over passing nothing. And I have always said Obama was aiming at a bill that had the mandates, but not the public option. Again, reading is a skill you need to work on.
At the risk of confusing you, I’ll note the latest from the AP:
That to me sounds like it’s not final, mostly because Nelson said it’s not final. Indeed, Reid hasn’t unveiled his manager’s amendment. Maybe it will be full steam ahead after he does. But none of the steps along the way so far have been easy, which — just to emphasize for the slower readers — is not the same as predicitng that Dems will let the bill fail. Pres. Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, thought they were going to have a bill passed before the summer recess. I daresay I have had a more realistic view of the process than they did.
Karl (cc4af5) — 12/18/2009 @ 9:42 pmSuper-duper OT but Patterico’s “Guitar Hero” post is closed for comments now. And I got a “Guitar Hero” that beats him (but only with the special effects). Oh, this is just another shameless plug for my currently ongoing series.
John Hitchcock (3fd153) — 12/18/2009 @ 9:46 pmKarl: Is it my reading skills or your revisionism that is at issue here? It sounds to me like you’re backing off from your earlier optimism about the bill’s prospects for failure in a c.y.a. exercise.
You were certainly arguing more than the obvious point that the bill’s passage would be difficult. That’s not exactly astute analysis. There are people who barely follow the debate who could tell you it wouldn’t be easy.
Rather, you were detailing all the ways the legislation could be derailed. Even now, you’re holding out for Nelson, which is a version of the same thing.
Myron (998393) — 12/18/2009 @ 9:59 pmMyron,
In fact when News about Nelson was breaking yesterday, I tweeted: “Radio just said Ben Nelson is rejecting the Casey abortion language for ReidCare. Kudos to him (though I still fear he’ll buckle in the end).” Pointing out that Nelson is the man of the moment shouldn’t be controversial — and I posted links here yesterday presenting the arguments for him pointng both ways. Beyond that, I noted — as have many on the Left — Nelson’s long ties to the insurance industry to raise the question of whether Nelson really wants to get to “yes.” And again — given that the Left has been accusing lieberman and Nelson of negotiating in bad faith, I think it was a fair question to ask. Further, I just posted the link where I expressly gave my opinion on the odds. Did I detail all the ways the bill could get derailed? Yes, I did. But that’s not the same as predicting the bill was going to die.
I am highly amused by your comment that “There are people who barely follow the debate who could tell you it wouldn’t be easy.” As I just noted above, Obama, Pelosi and Reid thought they could have it done by last July. If I was off-base, what does that make them?
Karl (cc4af5) — 12/18/2009 @ 10:14 pmKarl: “If I was off-base, what does that make them?”
Politicians, trying to make something appear to be inevitable. As you know, that is Reid’s whole style.
And by the way, I went and re-read some of your old posts, and while you did detail all the ways the bill could be derailed, you noted that you’ve always said “50/50 at best.” So I stand corrected on that point.
Myron (998393) — 12/18/2009 @ 10:26 pm“Karl: Is it my reading skills or your revisionism that is at issue here.”
Myron – I know where I’d place my money.
daleyrocks (718861) — 12/18/2009 @ 10:27 pmi’d put my money on the counter of my local gun shop, but that’s just me. %-)
redc1c4 (fb8750) — 12/18/2009 @ 10:37 pm2012 is far enough out that I wouldn’t put much stock in polls now. Obama has to be much more worrying for Nelson. A foundering top of the ticket will not be a good sign for him. And I have a hard time seeing Obama figure it out, he’s just not wired for it.
Soronel Haetir (2b4c2b) — 12/18/2009 @ 10:43 pmProves, again, the old saw about our having the best politicians money can buy. And now with mostly fake Obama money.
Gee, if you’re a Dem Senator today wouldn’t you go back to the well for more?
cedarhill (013a8c) — 12/19/2009 @ 4:32 amOf course, even if the Repubs were to take over, it’s not like he’d get any favors from them either, after being used for their toilet tissue.
I see that Lord Haw Haw still has not explained what he meant through the use of his term “teabaggers” on an earlier thread. What does this term mean, Lord HH, and where did it originate? Please be precise.
Dmac (a964d5) — 12/19/2009 @ 7:11 amSo how much money did it take to buy Nebraska?
If it takes $300 million to buy Louisiana, then surely it must take more than that to buy Nebraska.
Gesundheit (cfa313) — 12/19/2009 @ 7:16 am[…] last night’s comments, I noted that at the time he rejected the Casey language, I feared Nelson would buckle. This was in large part because the abortion debate always seemed largely like an exercise in CYA […]
Patterico's Pontifications » ObamaCare: Will Nelson buckle? Yes, he will! (e4ab32) — 12/19/2009 @ 7:44 am