[Guest post by DRJ]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has published a forecast of projected job opportunities for 2008-2018:
The good news is the BLS thinks there will be jobs. Two of the top three areas for job growth are “management, scientific and technical consulting services” and “computer systems design and related services.” These are vague descriptions that could mean anything from CEOs like Bill Gates to low-paying entry-level jobs. Odds are it means more of the latter than the former.
The bad news? The BLS projects big losses for high-wage manufacturing and mining jobs, and gains in these traditionally low-wage areas:
Working in physicians’ offices.
Working in employment services, e.g., helping people find jobs.
Working in general merchandise stores, presumably in stores like Walmart.
Working in local government jobs.
Working in home health care, nursing care facilities, and services for the elderly and disabled.
Working in full-service restaurants.
In the past, most of these positions were low-paying jobs held by high school graduates. I doubt things will change so much that these will become high-paying jobs — although there may be more college graduates doing them, in which case I wonder how they will repay their school loans. It’s also notable that most jobs appear to be government and health care positions. Apparently the BLS doesn’t believe many jobs will be created outside of government or health care in the next 10 years.