Patterico's Pontifications

11/17/2009

2010: Alarm bells for Dems from Arkansas

Filed under: General — Karl @ 1:44 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Rep. Vic Snyder (D) has had it pretty easy in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District since his election in 1996. In this century, he has generally won re-election by roughly 15% margins. He ran unopposed in 2008. The Cook Political Report has considered it a “Tier 2″ district leaning Democratic.

According to Public Policy Polling (PPP) — a Democratic firm — those days are over:

Snyder’s approval rating is now 42%, with 46% of voters in the district disapproving of him. He’s at a solid 75% in his own party but with independents the spread is 30/56 and with Republicans it’s just 12/75.

A lot of Snyder’s issues can probably be traced to overall feelings about his party. 54% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, 52% disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance, and 50% express the feeling that Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Additionally 55% of voters say they’re opposed to the health care bill the House passed last week with Snyder’s support, including 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Snyder seems to be bearing the brunt of a lot of animosity toward national Democrats in his district.

The practical implication of all this is that the district looks like a toss up for next year. In possible 2010 match ups Snyder leads Tim Griffin 44-43, Scott Wallace 44-42, and David Meeks 45-42. Those close margins come despite the fact that none of the Republican candidates are well known- 67% of voters have no opinion about Griffin, 75% say the same of Wallace, and 78% are ambivalent toward Meeks.

The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman sniffs that the poll “confirms what we already knew: Obama radioactive in AR.” But PPP chose AR-2 as a “test case for whether the political climate is so bad for Dems right now that districts that haven’t been in the top tier of competitiveness for years might be in play, and it looks like the answer is yes.” Moreover, PPP’s description of the internals further deflates the lefty theory that that the GOP brand is so damaged that the 2010 Congressional campaign will not end as badly for the Dems as the 1994 campaign:

Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District is a good example of this. 16% of voters there don’t like the Democrats or the Republicans. But they give all three of Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder’s potential opponents leads of 37-40 points and they give the possible Blanche Lincoln foes we tested leads of 42-43 points.

There are very few people who dislike Congressional Democrats planning to vote for them this year anyway. But there are a fair number of people who dislike Congressional Republicans who are still planning to give them a chance.

It’s not just Arkansas, either. PPP’s analysis of the Independent vote in Virginia an New Jersey suggested that bloc had two components: (1) conservative voters voters who don’t call themselves Republican; and (2) true swing voters, who may be looking for a division of power. Voters do not have to love the GOP to love gridlock. Vic Snyder didn’t hear the alarm bells from those two states. He — and other Dems in swing districts — might want to start listening to them ringing now.

–Karl

21 Responses to “2010: Alarm bells for Dems from Arkansas”

  1. I cannot stress enough that the House will see a +80 swing of Republicans (Conservative Republicans). I know here in VA there are 3 seats that will flip and that is in the North part of VA. I think other then cities you will see 1 or 2 flips per state. The change people thought they would see certainly did not mean SHUTTING out the opposition party. They will be voting to SHUT THEM DOWN in 2010! God how sweet that picture will be of Pelosi handing over that gavel…I will put that as a sticker on my car!

    I will also enjoy Reid going home when he LOSES and I see Republicans pick up 4 seats in the Senate!

    Jaded (2dcf17)

  2. You racist reichwingNazi RethugliKKKans are dead as a party, and ceased being relevant a long long long time ago. Enjoy your time in the wilderness, beeyotches!

    JD (d4820c)

  3. Jaded, that’s optimistic, to say the least. I want that, and I’ll work for it. I hope other jaded republicans like me also work for it, because that’s the only way it will happen. We have to win beyond the margin of Acorn, lawsuits, and black panther+DOJ intimidation.

    If we can take the house, it will mean hearing, under oath, about various topics that are pretty important. Eric Holder will have to explain a few things to Lamar Smith (I guess his 6 years as ranking member are up, so he may not be chairman, but you get the point). Obama members will have to explain themselves on ACORN and SEIU. ACORN and SEIU can be investigated to great effect, actually.

    Those Inspectors General? It’s a big deal to some in the house. I also think it would make sense to investigate why promises to be transparent have not been kept.

    anyway, we won’t get there off the back of anti-Obama fervor alone. We’d better be motivated to take time off work, spend some money, and also think carefully about how each election needs to be handled.

    Dustin (bb61e3)

  4. Razorbacks = Racists!

    AD - RtR/OS! (138fbd)

  5. This is why Pelosi had that vote held Saturday night, while election fever was still pretty strong, and people had not digested what happened, thanks in part to NY 23’s nonsense (of which the democrat candidate Pelosi swore into office… even though the votes weren’t even all in yet).

    Will we really see a democrat healthcare bill? Or do these people want a chance to prove they are not in league with Obama.

    Perhaps that’s why Immigration Reform is coming to the floor. It’s a chance for democrats to vote against Obama that will be on our minds for a while.

    Dustin (bb61e3)

  6. 2010 can’t come soon enough.

    Rochf (ae9c58)

  7. The key will be getting good candidates and I hope Steele is up to it.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  8. […] on the shifting tides over at Patterico’s.  Plus some more on the third party discussion at Hot […]

    Gazzer’s Gabfest » It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to… (b98ad6)

  9. Steele won’t be up to it if he keeps apologizing for the party he represents, and he needs to also stop categorizing all of it’s members as white guys who don’t like anyone of color.

    Dmac (a964d5)

  10. He — and other Dems in swing districts — might want to start listening to them ringing now

    Stay deaf Dems, stay deaf.

    Bill M (c5889b)

  11. I still don’t see 2010 becoming another 1994, ’94 required organization and I just don’t see the current GOP managing that no matter how much the other guy is hated.

    Soronel Haetir (795f5a)

  12. I still don’t see 2010 becoming another 1994, ‘94 required organization and I just don’t see the current GOP managing that no matter how much the other guy is hated.

    What was organized about 2006?

    Michael Ejercito (6a1582)

  13. Ejercito is right… I don’t think a resurgence in 1994 had much to do with Gingrich, though there was a Contract with America that made a difference, and he jumped onto that.

    I mainly think it’s on us… the regular schmos all over the country. Go and become a delegate as soon as possible. Go volunteer, even for smaller things, and donate to good candidates. And also, run for office if you’re situated to do so.

    Get involved with your local republican apparatus. If every conservative blog commenter, Limbaugh fan, and Palin reader did this, not only would the GOP rock the elections, but they would actually be a much less corrupt, more accountable, and solid thinking party.

    Dustin (bb61e3)

  14. As a longterm resident of AR cong district #2 and a conservative, I would be shocked if Vic Snyder lost. This is after all the conservative, Bible belt state that repeatedly elected Bill Clinton. To other conservatives out there I say, don’t start counting the chickens. The left has slanted the playing field against us. We are going to have to fight for every inch.

    Steve (6cd3f2)

  15. Steve’s with capital letters are exponentially more honest and less douchenozzle-ish than those that do not capitalize their name. Just sayin’

    JD (9769aa)

  16. Who suspects that the Clinton era “triangulation” will be attempted by Democrats in 2010 to woo back independent voters?

    The next obvious questions: What policies will be offered as the bait? How transparent will the attempt(s) appear? Will it be recognized and discussed as trangulation again?, and finally, will it work?

    We’ll know in mid-November a year from now.

    (If we’re still around.)

    Bill Lever (a16f35)

  17. Bill Lever, you can’t triangulate taking over most of the automobile industry, the health care industry, and destroying the US economy with “Cap and Trade” legislation.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  18. How many voters were registered in Minnesota by Acorn? Tell me again the margin that Franken won by? This has been happening across the country. Here in Virginia, the Dems don’t really want the absentee ballots of our armed forces to be fully counted. They kinda/sorta mail the ballots out to late for them to be returned in time.

    Greg (69d423)

  19. […] up on the troubles of Rep. Vic Snyder in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District — where Barack Obama had his strongest performance […]

    The Greenroom » Forum Archive » 2010: Even more alarm bells for Dems, in MO, NC, AR, etc. (e2f069)

  20. […] up on the troubles of Rep. Vic Snyder in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District — where Barack Obama had his strongest performance in […]

    Patterico's Pontifications » 2010: Even more alarm bells for Dems, in MO, NC, AR, etc. (e4ab32)

  21. […] ban, etc.), the more likely they were to lose. Generic numbers are no comfort to people like Rep. Vic Snyder or any number of previously safe Dems eyeing a brutal struggle next year. Six-term Rep. Dennis […]

    The Greenroom » Forum Archive » ObamaCare and 2010: Are Dems suicidal? (e2f069)


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