Patterico's Pontifications

8/30/2009

Image of the Day

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:54 pm

A picture is worth a whole buncha words:

obama_index_august_30_2009

Rasmussen’s poll also says that 52% of Americans — that’s a majority! — disapprove of The One’s job performance, and 57% would throw out the entire Congress if given a chance.

A savvy friend thinks 2010 will be a repeat of 1994. It’s obviously too early to say that, but these numbers can’t be encouraging for the Administration.

47 Responses to “Image of the Day”

  1. Well, get ready for another TrollFest! These kinds of figures cannot be handled by our Leftigious (left-religious) colleagues….

    You see, the polls must have been biased, and voters are smart, and so forth….

    Eric Blair (a88004)

  2. Remember Patterico — 52% is a narrow, bare majority.

    aunursa (8c1078)

  3. Somewhere, Marx is weeping.

    (Although it’s not clear whether it’s Karl, Groucho, Harpo, Chico or Zeppo.)

    Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (0ea407)

  4. Yup, Eric, the polls must be rigged. I can see it now.

    That, and fourth-stage BDS.

    Paul (creator of "Staunch Brayer") (a98ec3)

  5. I’m more interested in his approval rating in the
    “swing states”. If he’s dipped below 45% in places like Ohio or Colorado, then I’m intrigued.

    lee (86706b)

  6. I can’t remember what the mood of the country was before the 1994 rout. I don’t remember people being as angry as they are now. Were they? And frankly, today I think that the health care boondoggle is just the straw that broke the camel’s back. We have put up with the growth of government until now–no mas!

    Patricia (7aaa75)

  7. I dunno what Obama expected – if you lie to people, they’re not going to like you.

    1+1=2.

    Leviticus (f565c1)

  8. I agree, Leviticus, however it seems as if he believes we are too clueless to catch on to the lying because we are still too enchanted by the Hope and Change magic.

    He didn’t give us enough credit and he gave himself way too much.

    Dana (d7c445)

  9. Throwing a little cold water here, but the bad mood (while real) has a lot to do with the economic picture, and I actually think the prospect of a minor recovery by November 2010 is more likely than one in November 2012.

    We just had our first month of positive GDP in almost a year, and banks seem to be placing their big toe back into the lending market. Unemployment will stay high for a least another year, but unlike, to pick a totally random example, Bush I or Bush II, the economic reports in the media will be full of explainations of how unemployment is a lagging indicator and recovery is on the way. I don’t expect the mood of the voters will be all sunshine and butterflies, but I do think the news of an economic recovery will sink in by 2010.

    But by 2012? I know this is counterintuitive, but think about it: in January 2011, everybody ** and I mean everybody ** is going to get a big bite out of their wallet when our taxes go up. And that’s just the increase due to the expiration of the Bush cuts, I’m not even considering any new taxes. Plus, the wild spending policies will likely lead to massive inflation in the very near future, probably right around the time a recovery is starting to pick up steam. And don’t forget gas prices — I can’t help but notice they have been creeping back up almost non-stop since McCain lost and all further talk of offshore oil drilling was squelched.

    Sean P (3928ec)

  10. I pray that’s the end-stage…

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  11. You know what worries me, Paul?

    Clinton style triangulation.

    The difference here is that Clinton was both smart and canny. I won’t comment about POTUS with regard to the former, but he is tone deaf with regard to the latter.

    I don’t want the economy to go into the tank, but I know that the economic policies being pushed cannot work, and will lead to more economic problems.

    Which is why we are starting to hear that inflation is good.

    Brrrr.

    Eric Blair (a88004)

  12. I think the ‘strong disapproval’, which is in the 40s, is a much more important figure. The huge swath of America that gave Obama a chance has found out that he isn’t ready to lead. Obama promised everyone everything, and he can’t pull that kind of stunt again. It’s getting to the point where everyone will be running against Obama in the way everyone ran against Bush (including Mccain).

    Juan (bd4b30)

  13. Sean, the problem is we won’t see better unemployment numbers until 2011 at least. In the next six months (assuming the economy actually improves), there will be a 1-2% spike in unemployment as those who left the pool of job-seekers (the percentage of people who gave up looking because they weren’t finding anything, or got bare-minimum part-time work) will rejoin the pool, and will again be counted in the figures.

    The reason the last couple of number sets haven’t shown more than a .1% rise is for that very reason.

    I think it will be simple for republicans (assuming we don’t pick a horrible candidate again) to ride it to a win in 2012.

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  14. Lee,

    The last Quinnipiac Ohio poll was released in early July 2009 and even then Obama was sinking:

    President Barack Obama gets a lackluster 49 – 44 percent approval rating in Ohio, considered by many to be the most important swing state in a presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is President Obama’s lowest approval rating in any national or statewide Quinnipiac University poll since he was inaugurated and is down from 62 – 31 percent in a May 6 survey.

    On August 20, 2009, Quinnipiac released similar results for Florida:

    President Barack Obama gets a 47 – 48 percent approval rating from Florida voters, down from 58 – 35 percent June 10, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    This is President Obama’s lowest approval in any national or statewide poll conducted by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

    DRJ (3f5471)

  15. Scott,

    Republicans will never have an easy win as long as we have this media.

    DRJ (3f5471)

  16. song for Ear Leader.

    YBF, dummy: it’s easier to bullshit voters than it is reality.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  17. Comment by DRJ — 8/30/2009 @ 10:16 pm

    Considering the dropping ratings of MSNBC and the like, I suspect “this media” won’t matter much for much longer.

    At the least they will have to add some actual conservatives/libertarians to draw viewers.

    And I would find it hilarious if the show after Olberman ended up being where they stick such a person, and that they end up with double his ratings, while his don’t change.

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  18. “Rasmussen’s poll also says that 52% of Americans — that’s a majority! — disapprove of The One’s job performance”

    Good.

    Dave Surls (029226)

  19. Scott, I sure hope you’re right, but I share DRJ’s pessimism.

    MSNBC is not going to add many conservatives, and neither is ABC or CBS. They will go out of business first (of course, they could get a bailout before that happened). And if they do add some token on, it will be Meghan Mccain or something like populist Bill O’reilly. I don’t know what that is… your idea about adding informative people representing both sides would clearly make a product people want more than Olbermann or Anderson Cooper.

    The internet is what’s going to save us from the tyranny of the network TV news and newspapers. Palin’s approach on facebook is the model for keeping people aware of the bullshit, in my opinion. I’m not sure why news blogs aren’t 100 times more popular than they are presently. Lots of people have internet and still rely on old school journalism. I hope the GOP realizes the value in letting people read DailyKOS and Instapundit and coming to their own conclusions.

    Juan (bd4b30)

  20. I notice the electorate of Japan today did sort of their own version of America, November 2008, and threw in the towel and turned to their liberal politicians and party, an uncommon occurance for that nation over the past 50 years.

    Regardless of most countries’ prevailing ideology, people in any society tend to get spooked when unemployment soars (as is happening in Japan) and economic trends look bleak. And so a lot of voters will end up like a chicken running around without its head. (Of course, voters in a nation like Mexico — or inner-city America — are like that regardless of prevailing circumstances.)

    Meanwhile, and by contrast, I expect the British electorate in the immediate future will go in the opposite direction of the US and Japan, when they toss out their Labor Party in favor of the Tories.
    Should that happen, some common sense may prevail across the Atlantic, which will have to offset the growing number of miscues and poor judgment that will be rolling over the US and, farther west, Japan.

    The way that the international economy will be evolving or devolving over the next several years should be interesting.

    Mark (411533)

  21. A picture is worth a whole buncha words… or a grain of salt when considering the slant of the source.

    “[In] the early days of his polling firm, when it was named Rasmussen Research, Rasmussen balanced a cold analysis of politics and consumer opinion with advocacy for some conservative views. For a short time around the 2000 elections he wrote a column for WorldNetDaily, once arguing that President Bill Clinton had “ratified the Reagan Revolution” by declaring the end of big government in Clinton’s 1996 State of the Union speech.

    In other columns, and in a 2001 company-published book titled A Better Deal! Social Security Choice, Rasmussen made the case for privatizing the nation’s oldest entitlement program.” –source, Washington Independent

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  22. “Rasmussen’s poll also says that 52% of Americans — that’s a majority! — disapprove of The One’s job performance”
    Good.
    Comment by Dave Surls — 8/30/2009 @ 10:27 pm

    Unfortunately, Dave, all that proves is that 48 percent of the people aren’t paying attention or are too blinded by the light or something similar as this.

    either orr (291505)

  23. and turned to their liberal politicians and party, an uncommon occurance for that nation over the past 50 years.

    Oh goody. Maybe they can lose another decade…

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  24. Remember that the Rasmussen poll is LIKELY VOTERS, not registered voters or “all adults” like some polls. Therefore it is “biased” towards groups that tend to vote, like older people. After all, if you don’t vote, you don’t exist politically.

    Obama won the presidency because he got out blacks and young people in droves. Maybe he can get them back in 2012 with “We Can Do It Again”, but 2010 is where the usual voters will hold sway. And they would have elected McCain in 2008.

    Kevin Murphy (3c3db0)

  25. DRJ

    Thanks for the uplifiting news!

    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised at Obama’s low ratings in Florida, since his healthcare reform isn’t a exactly a hit with some senior citizens.

    lee (86706b)

  26. ____________________________________

    or a grain of salt when considering the slant of the source.

    I’d factor that in — even when an organization (or the people in it) aligns itself with politics closer to my own — and will admit to being a bit unsure of the level of objectivity or reliability if I don’t see information along the lines of the following:

    Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
    November 5, 2008

    Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
    Department of Political Science
    Fordham University

    For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

    Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 23 polling organizations.

    Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

    Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls — Rasmussen and Pew — were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).

    The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

    1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
    1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
    2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
    3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
    4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
    5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
    5. ARG (10/25-27)*
    6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
    6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
    7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
    8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
    9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
    10. FOX (11/1-2)
    11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
    12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
    13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
    14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
    15. Marist College (11/3)
    16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
    17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
    18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
    19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
    20. Newsweek (10/22-23)


    ____________________________________

    Mark (411533)

  27. […] I already have a Photo of the Day and Image of the Day. But you have to admit this is pretty cool. It’s the Station Fire from space — with […]

    Patterico’s Pontifications » Satellite Photo of the Day (e4ab32)

  28. Not a Rasmussen fan, DCSCA? Use this RealClearPolitics link to compare the poll of your choice. For instance, Gallup shows Obama was +27 in mid July 2009, then +17 at the end of July, and now he’s +8 at the end of August. I didn’t compare every poll but it looks like most if not all similarly show Obama’s poll numbers are declining.

    DRJ (3f5471)

  29. You know, I don’t want to go digging through IMP’s troll droppings, but I seem to recall that he didn’t mind Rasmussen when the poll told him what he liked.

    But he is wielding the “conservative bias” stick once again (although I also seem to remember him claiming that the MSM has a Republican bias, come to think of it), even though you slapped him with a wide variety of polls that support Rasmussen’s conclusions.

    No doubt he is deep into a fresh six pack of Mickey’s about now.

    He just can’t understand why people don’t agree with him. After all, he is so smart and well informed and all.

    Democracy sucks sometimes.

    But here is the difference. Maybe Obama will start triangulating. If he isn’t all eaten up by pride and self-entitlement, I mean. Time will tell.

    Eric Blair (0b61b2)

  30. Look out for a Wall of Control-V Cut and Paste from IMP tonight.

    Eric Blair (0b61b2)

  31. Rasmussen nailed the last three elections. Polls are an art, but I dearly hope Obama listens to DCSCA and ignores anything anyone conservative ever says. Please democrats, play like you’re winning. Double down on health care and extreme deficit spending! How about another cash for clunkers? (to be honest, the stakes are just plain too high at this point and I hope the dems reverse course and save the country and themselves).

    If you have ever watched fox news, or if you don’t read the NYT and WAPO like Couric wants you to, then you are clearly insane.

    Juan (bd4b30)

  32. “A savvy friend thinks 2010 will be a repeat of 1994.”

    Didn’t you get the memo? Keith Olberman and Markos Moulitsas have declared the Republican Pary dead, dead they say. Besides, Rasmussen is a Republican and he can’t be trusted!

    And something else that’s a leftwing talking point right now. But I forget what it is.

    Dave N (276c13)

  33. This is a bit of reassuring news, and I believe there is much more anger and energy now than in 1994.

    Leviticus should get paid by some Dem Congressmen to explain to them why people are so angry at the town hall meetings. People come to make their opinions heard, not to listen to a dishonest scolding about why they should go along with the plan.

    At the same time, I know many good reasons why Obama should have never gotten near the presidency, and I plan not to underestimate him or the organization behind him, whatever it is. (That is, underestimate his arrogance, dishonesty, and ability to get what he wants.

    MD in Philly (9fa3fb)

  34. A lot of it is his dirty socialist health care quagmire he’s stuck in I think. So much is off the rails in our little country and Barack Obama’s obsessive dirty socialist fixation on ruining health care is deeply deeply gay. His administration isn’t a year old and at best it’s stale already and at worst it’s seriously creeping people out.

    happyfeet (6b707a)

  35. Only 57% would vote to throw them all out? I’m very disappointed.

    htom (412a17)

  36. Pat

    Apparently other savvy friends as well – I apologize if you’ve seen it before

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26393_Page2.html

    EricPWJohnson (c99190)

  37. Leviticus should get paid by some Dem Congressmen

    I’m sure he would prefer honest work, instead of something involving Congress. :)

    Scott Jacobs (445f98)

  38. I don’t think 2010 is going to help out Obama much. If it’s really the economy, I see that there are predictions that there will be negative job growth next year, so apparently all of that stimulus spending didn’t improve things at all.

    rochf (ae9c58)

  39. The fly in the ointment here is that the GOP is too clumsy, leaderless and rudderless to make the necessary headway against this administration right now. What we’re seeing is a growing disgust with the Dems in power, but not a whole lot of love for the other side, if at all. They know sure as hell what they don’t want, but they’re not convinced that the alternative is that much better – pathetic.

    Dmac (e6d1c2)

  40. Take it easy, guys, and have a glass of this nice Obama Beer.

    Official Internet Data Office (cdc02c)

  41. A repeat of 1994 is likely. The Democrats have a lot of recent-turnover seats which are, by definition, winnable by Republicans in a normal year. And 2010 will not be a normal year.

    First clue: OMB says the unemployment rate will be well above 9% on election day.

    Second clue: Obama’s core supporters (youth) voted for him, not his party. They may not be happy being ordered to buy insurance to subsidize old farts.

    Third clue: Seniors all vote and Obama threatens Medicare.

    Look for a 40-60 vote swing. Possibly some long-held Democrat seats in “Blue” states will go. The Republican theme should be “I Told You So”, or maybe “We Can Undo It.”

    Looking at Senate seats, assuming the Republicans can field good candidates in CA and NY, it should be a banner year with 6-8 seats gained.

    Kevin Murphy (3c3db0)

  42. happyfeet–

    Consider what happens if Obamacare passes in anything like the current form. People are (unconstitutionally) compelled to buy insurance, which will utterly piss off the 20-somethings that are half his base. And the pissed off ones may be pissed off enough to vote. Government-run plans are starved for cash and the medicare-alternative plans are shut down, which will utterly piss off seniors, who ALL vote.

    And of course, there’s the 9.7% unemployment rate and the inflation caused by printing money with no GNP growth to back it up.

    The Democrats could drop to historic lows.

    Kevin Murphy (3c3db0)

  43. […] Patterico: A savvy friend thinks 2010 will be a repeat of 1994. It’s obviously too early to say that, but these numbers can’t be encouraging for the Administration. […]

    Flopping Aces » Blog Archive » Obama’s Numbers Sink Lower (e7cd22)

  44. We just had our first month of positive GDP in almost a year, and banks seem to be placing their big toe back into the lending market. Unemployment will stay high for a least another year, but unlike, to pick a totally random example, Bush I or Bush II, the economic reports in the media will be full of explainations of how unemployment is a lagging indicator and recovery is on the way. I don’t expect the mood of the voters will be all sunshine and butterflies, but I do think the news of an economic recovery will sink in by 2010.

    I think the economic positive news we are seeing is an illusion and the result of desperate efforts to reinflate the bubble. The financial people will get helped but the rest of us will get a one cent dollar. It looks ugly to me. The question is how to prepare for the coming inflation. One way is to elect Republicans but they have been known to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory before.

    Second, it took them two years after 1994 to find the government teat and attach themselves.

    Well, maybe they learned a lesson. I don’t think Ted ever drove over the Dike Bridge again.

    Mike K (2cf494)

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  46. I gave a brief poll comparison on my blogsite in March of this year, remarking how GWB and BHO polled roughly the same despite the glaring difference in reporting. I just gave a brief update, remarking how BHO is finally starting to separate himself from GWB’s poll numbers. BHO has gone down a more southerly track than GWB, even with the state-run media’s work at trying to keep BHO on a more northern track.

    It would be interesting to see numbers if MSM treated BHO the same as they treated GWB.

    Just sayin’.

    John Hitchcock (3fd153)

  47. EPIC FAIL!!

    SpiritOfCartman (3ea4d3)


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