Patterico's Pontifications

6/22/2009

Iran’s Rafsanjani and Iraq’s al-Sistani

Filed under: International — DRJ @ 8:49 am



[Guest post by DRJ]

Steve Schippert at ThreatsWatch.Org believes this al-Arabiya article is big news. Al-Arabiya reports that Iran’s Rafsanjani is working to replace Supreme Leader Khameini with a governing council, and Iraq’s Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is involved. From Schippert’s analysis:

“My ears first perked up when word made it through the grapevines over the weekend that Rafsanjani had been meeting with other Ayatollahs and clerics in Qom, and had among them a representative of Iraq’s Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

Why? Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in 2007 made two very critical statements: that “I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shiite or a Kurd or a Christian,” and that Islam can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. You will never hear such words slip past the lips of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei. Ever.”

Now we know why Rafsanjani’s relatives were detained for several hours around that time. And my ears picked up at these statements:

“But whatever the change, and the extent of the change – and it appears the intent is significant change and not simply a game of Shuffling Ayatollahs – it will be positive for Iranians, for the region, for Americans and for the entire world. I think it is nearly inevitable at his point, and time is not on the regime’s side.

I have been telling friends and peers for a week that we are witnessing the most significant – if relative slow motion – event since the attacks of 9/11. Most have shrugged that off. Well, when one considers the potential effects afoot, this may prove more significant than 9/11. (Think the possible implications for client terrorist organizations Hizballah and Hamas when the cash cow disappears.)”

A slow-motion regime change in Iran with input from a liberated Iraqi Ayatollah. I hope it’s true.

— DRJ

26 Responses to “Iran’s Rafsanjani and Iraq’s al-Sistani”

  1. Oh, WOW!

    This would have never have happened if W hadn’t been elected. Gore, Obama, and every other Liberal Democrat would be telling the Iraqis and Iranians to enjoy their enslavement by their government. Government knows how to run their lives much better than individuals do.

    PCD (02f8c1)

  2. This is why Obama’s pro-Ahmadinejad caution will not turn out well. Those demonstrators will remember who supported them, even with words, and who didn’t. Fuoad Ajami has a comment on Obama’s education.

    Days into his presidency, it should be recalled, Mr. Obama had spoken of his desire to restore to America’s relation with the Muslim world the respect and mutual interest that had existed 30 or 20 years earlier. It so happened that he was speaking, almost to the day, on the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution — and that the time span he was referring to, his golden age, covered the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the American standoff with Libya, the fall of Beirut to the forces of terror, and the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. Liberal opinion would have howled had this history been offered by George W. Bush, but Barack Obama was granted a waiver.

    Yes, he has a waiver so far.

    Mike K (90939b)

  3. /sigh

    Sayeed Ali al Sistani is the leader of Shi’ia Islam, and as such, the Ayatollahs of Iran are subservient to him.
    Karbala in Iraq is the holiest site to the Shi’ia, and Qom in Iran was set up so Shi’ia muslims could fulfill the duty of hajj while Saddam controlled Iraq.
    Sistani is not an american puppet and often often opposes the american occupation.
    His place in any negotiations is as the religious leader of the Shi’ia and not some american stooge, like the tyrant Shah.

    wheeler's cat (0cf7e1)

  4. Not just Hizballah and Hamas, but the remains of Iraqi resistance, which survives largely on the charity of Iran. In fact, terrorism throughout the Middle East may be about to undergo a major funding collapse.

    But bigger than 9/11? Possibly, but in reality, it is part of the fallout from 9/11.

    tim maguire (4a98f0)

  5. I guess when democracy has spread throughout the Muslim world (much as it did last century in South America), the folks that opposed Bush’s Iraq strategy as stupid and hopeless will suddenly call the change “inevitable.”

    Mush like they did when they had to backtrack on Reagan and the USSR.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  6. Mike – looks like his “waiver” has expired already (man, that was quick! And despite all that MSM fondling):

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

    That’s an approval rating of…-1. So we’ve gone from an all – time high in his first few months to an inevitable slide downward. Watch the numbers fall more precipitously after the full effects of his bungling of the Iranian situation becomes more broadly acknowledged.

    Dmac (f7884d)

  7. By sitting on the sidelines, Teh One allowed this to happen.

    JD (355e34)

  8. The point that Sistani doesn’t follow Velayat al Fagih ‘rule by the guardians” as opposed as to both Khamenei and Khomeini was, or apparently Muqtada Sadr did, is the key detail. Khomeini spent 15 years in exile in Najaf and Karbala, leading Hezbollah figures like Nasrallah got their start there is the point.

    narciso (4e0dda)

  9. Almost anything is an improvement over the tyrants now in power. But, with the rank amateurs who run the USG, and the mendacity with which they operate, whatever good that may come will be mitigated by the U.S. inability and unwillingness to capitalize fully.

    I want to see what Chris Hitchens’ take is.

    Ed from SFV (dde255)

  10. Kevin Murphy, eventually all MENA states will be Islamic republics or Islamic democracies. Iran is an Islamic republic now, Iraq is an Islamic democracy now…they have sharia law written into their constitution.
    The Bush Doctrine is an Epic Fail.
    We spent 1 trillion taxpayer dollars and 4228 AMERICAN lives on something that would have happened anyways, something that is happening right now in Iran.
    Iraq was not out business once we saw there were no WMDs, and Iran is not our business.

    wheeler's cat (0cf7e1)

  11. Sistani is not an american puppet and often often opposes the american occupation.
    His place in any negotiations is as the religious leader of the Shi’ia and not some american stooge, like the tyrant Shah.

    Comment by wheeler’s cat

    The key fact, ignored by you, of course, is that Sistani opposes government by mullahs and that is why he has remained largely quiet although helpful in Iraq.

    Your malice is shown by this inanity:

    The Bush Doctrine is an Epic Fail.

    Yes, and Saddam is still busy building a nuclear bomb and all would be well in your world if he were but HE ISN’T. He’s dead. Iraq, as you illogically point out, is a democracy.

    Iran became our business when they violated international protocols, and effectively declared war, by seizing out embassy and diplomats and holding them hostage. Not even Hitler did that !

    Don’t you know anything ?

    Mike K (90939b)

  12. Only the talking points recited by the voices in its’ head.

    AD - RtR/OS! (7cda43)

  13. Mike K – If you really want some krazy, ask it about the Wedge Strategy, genocide in Africa, and Gov. Palin.

    JD (355e34)

  14. No thanks. I see enough crazyness around here. I do tend to agree with Andy McCarthy on Obama as he thinks Zero is more competent than we give him credit for. He just has different goals.

    Mike K (90939b)

  15. I guess Bushitler knew something when he engaged in this War of Choice.

    Boy, what a vindication of Bush if the Iran Theocracy collapses into Democracy with separation of church and state.

    HeavenSent (1e97ff)

  16. Iranian citizens killed by government thugs, Korea threaten to launch a missile toward Hawaii, stock market in turmoil, debt and deficit insanity, terrorists sent to Bermuda.
    Obama kills a fly.
    Obama has ice cream.
    Obama golfs.
    Obama signs strongest anti-tobacco bill ever.
    Please tell me this nightmare will end.

    dave christensen (d4868a)

  17. General Ali Fazli, who was recently appointed as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the province of Tehran, is reported to have been arrested after he refused to carry out orders from the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to use force on people protesting the controversial re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    Neo (46a1a2)

  18. The Bush Doctrine has nothing to do with wmds…what are you Sarah Palin? lol
    The BUsh Doctrine is “democracy” promotion in MENA.
    And it is an Epic Fail, since Iraq is just another Islamic state.

    wheeler's cat (0cf7e1)

  19. FYI Mike, the Iranians took hostages because Carter gave the Shah shelter in America. They feared Operation Ajax II.

    wheeler's cat (0cf7e1)

  20. Why is this so difficult for you?
    The greens are not revolting against the mullahs….half the mullahs are on their side!
    This is about election fraud, not getting rid of Islam, you dopes.

    wheeler's cat (0cf7e1)

  21. FYI Mike, the Iranians took hostages because Carter gave the Shah shelter in America. They feared Operation Ajax II.

    Does this loon know any history ? When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they interned US diplomats until they were exchanged. The actions of Iran in 1979 have not been seen since Attila the Hun but the loon apparently thinks this is how nation states act.

    It really is amazing to see the working of the leftist mind. If you can call it that.

    Mike K (90939b)

  22. Your comments remain incoherent, WC.

    SPQR (72771e)

  23. Mike, if you haven’t already noticed, wheeler’s cat’s feline urinary tract infection is nuttier than the O’Henry bar. I think we should start calling it Toys in the Attic from now on – who’s with me?

    Dmac (f7884d)

  24. For the record, I was against starting the War in Iraq, at least during the prelude to actual fighting. I felt that we had Saddam contained and he wasn’t a threat, so there was no reason for taking him out at the time. That said, we know he HAD WMD’s, what was done with them we’ll probably never know. He used them on his own people, we destroyed many of them after Desert Storm, and there was no accounting for what happened to the rest of them. Now, if Iran becomes a secular Islamic democracy, Bush deserves much of the credit because of what has happened in Iraq. The Iranian people are educated and aware of world events, unlike the North Koreans, and can see with their own eyes what is happening right next door to them. As far as Obama, I am undecided about whether he is right about being low key with regard to his statements about Iran. There may be things going on behind the scenes that I do not know about, he may genuinely believe that being too strong with his words will hurt the Iranian cause, or he may be out of his league. At this point, I just don’t know. Do you think he can have a reset button made in Farsi without screwing it up?

    Bill R. (3a67e2)

  25. WHY Obama doesn’t DARE LECTURE IRAN’s Government on ‘VOTING IRREGULARITIES’…

    When the ONLY QUESTION that remains is:

    Who stold more votes:

    Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ???

    Or, Obama & A.C.O.R.N. & his Al Qaida donors – like “Mr. Doodad Pro” & all those other illegal foreign donors pouring $$$ into Obama’s campaign?

    Mister Wonderful (f22eb0)

  26. Could be more than Hezballah and Hamas with their couscous in the fire.

    I hear Muckty’s sportin’ a green turban these days. Any truth to that?

    mojo (74ba73)


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