Patterico's Pontifications

6/13/2009

Iranian Election Update

Filed under: International — DRJ @ 8:00 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

The New York Times quotes an unnamed Interior Ministry source on the Iranian election:

“They didn’t rig the vote,” claimed the man, who showed his ministry identification card but pleaded not to be named. “They didn’t even look at the vote. They just wrote the name and put the number in front of it.

Other reports support these allegations of election fraud:

“There are no independent election monitors in Iran. Mousavi’s claims [of fraud], however, point to some noticeable breaks with past election counting.

The tallies from previous elections — time-consuming paper ballots — began to trickle in hours after polls closed. This time, huge chunks of results — millions at a time — poured in almost immediately from a huge turnout of about 85 percent of Iran’s 46.2 million voters. The final outcome: 62.6 percent of the vote to Ahmadinejad and 33.75 for Mousavi, a former prime minister from the 1980s.

The U.S. refused to accept Ahmadinejad’s claim of a landslide re-election victory said it was looking into allegations of election fraud.”

Moussavi has disappeared and is reported to be under house arrest “or worse.” Text messaging, cell phones, universities, websites, and newspapers have been shut down, and the streets of Tehran have erupted in violence.

— DRJ

49 Responses to “Iranian Election Update”

  1. You have to wonder how much more of this that the Iranian population will put up with – perhaps they’ve finally reached the tipping point.

    Dmac (f7884d)

  2. Where is that Jimmy Carter when you need him? He was all over the place as an “election monitor” a while back.

    Eric Blair (5a226d)

  3. If young Iranians want democracy, they will eventually find their own way to it on their own timetable.

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  4. Comment by Eric Blair — 6/13/2009 @ 8:21 pm

    I heard his reply to the results on the radio this afternoon. He basically said that it doesn’t matter if there was voting fraud because the Supreme Leader was not going to change and that both major candidates were essentially the same.

    Jay Curtis (8f6541)

  5. DCSCA, that’s a pretty vapid comment. Essentially meaningless, at worst, it blames “young Iranians” for not having a real democracy yet.

    Brilliant.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  6. There is some fascinating Twittering coming from Iran. Scary, sad, frustrating and hopeful all at once. It doesn’t seem the youth and those wanting “freedom” will go down without a fight.

    Dana (aedf1d)

  7. Jimmy Carter created today’s Iran and he doesn’t have the balls to comment about this so called election.

    Alta Bob (9f2c33)

  8. Terrific Eric Blair!!!! Clueless Carter afraid of bunnies. We can thank him for the decades-long Iran disaster.

    dave christensen (d4868a)

  9. Of course we can’t blame Carter…
    Everyone knows that deposing the Shaw was something done by the Bush family.

    AD - RtR/OS! (42a55e)

  10. It used to be that the mullahs would at least look at these votes to see what the youngsters were thinking so as to better control them. Now they’ve even stopped pretending.

    luagha (c03f69)

  11. #6- Amazing anything is getting out as they’re scrambling to sever web access and all communications. Brings to mind 1956 Hungary, 1968 Czechoslovakia and Russia in 1991. CNN managed to televise the Soviet disintegration in real time. Tank fire, street riots and all, if you recall. If the Russian people could bring about change from within, Iranians can as well.

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  12. Obama is pleased with the robust debate. Meanwhile,the clampdown.

    Alta Bob (9f2c33)

  13. Not only fraud; clumsy fraud.

    The counters should have been overwhelmed by a sea of paper ballots. It should have taken days to get them counted. To have most of those votes “counted” in mere hours means that they just made the totals up.

    The Iranian people know who they chose. SO do we. The question is, does the government of the United States have the balls to stand with the people of Iran — for once — or does Obama want to go down as the guy who OK’d the 2009 coup?

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  14. You know, we do have forces on the ground not far away…

    luagha (c03f69)

  15. Michael J Totten reports, continuously updated.

    It’s a revolution now, and it can only end in an open theocratic dictatorship or with the mullahs swept from power.

    The US cannot intervene — this has to be settled by Iranians — but we can call for the world to stand with democracy and against religious extremism. We should begin by derecognizing the illegal regime and asking democratic states to follow suit.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  16. #15- Precisely. Reminds me of the Soviet collapse in 1991. The last thing this implosion needs in the intervention of the U.S., or any Western power. Recall what happened in 1918 when the U.S. and other allied troops intervened on Russian soil on the side of the Whites against the Reds in the Russian civil war. Best to stand by at the ready and watch their revolution succeed– or fail.

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  17. Best to stand by at the ready and watch their revolution succeed– or fail.

    I’m glad that 19th century France didn’t share your views.

    Roy Mustang (d3a8ee)

  18. Can’t they all just get along?

    Rodney King (474dfc)

  19. Mr Murphy wrote:

    It’s a revolution now, and it can only end in an open theocratic dictatorship or with the mullahs swept from power.

    Well, we might hope that it’s actually a revolution, but it’s way, way too early to tell. There have been plenty of countries with riots after purportedly disputed elections in which things settled down after a few days.

    The hopeful Dana (474dfc)

  20. Mr Murphy wrote:

    The Iranian people know who they chose. SO do we. The question is, does the government of the United States have the balls to stand with the people of Iran — for once — or does Obama want to go down as the guy who OK’d the 2009 coup?

    That was a rhetorical question, right?

    The sarcastic Dana (474dfc)

  21. You should refer to yourself as “The Fatalistic Dana” in this context, maybe?

    Eric Blair (5a226d)

  22. Maybe this is why Barcky wanted to talk to Ahmadinnerjacket. He wanted pointers on rigging elections, and wanted to know how they could get away with being so blatant.

    JD (fd2bc3)

  23. For which comment, Mr Blair?

    Just what can we do about this? Whether you approve of the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan or not, one point is inarguable: we are stretched too thin right now to do much else. And regardless of whether Mahmoud Ahmadinejad really won a majority, if we did anything noticeable, you can count on the Iranians uniting behind him; nothing would end the riots sooner than the US taking action here!

    Heck, it wouldn’t surprise me to see President Ahmadinejad stage something to make it look like the US was trying to undermine him.

    Whether President Obama has the will to do anything about this is almost irrelevant; he doesn’t have the resources to do much about it.

    The Fatalistic Dana (474dfc)

  24. I don’t think much can be done, oh Many Named Dana. I am just sitting, watching the Middle East nervously, waiting for Israel to make its move. Unless there are really quick changes in Iran….

    Eric Blair (5a226d)

  25. Mahmoud’s powerbase is the IRGC, of which he is a veteran. They directed much of the assistance to Sunni insurgents as well as Shiite militias like the Sadr groups, as well as similar operations in Afghanistan. They also control a good portion of the Iranian economy.Why wouldn’t one approve of operation in Afghanistan, much less Iraq.

    narciso (4e0dda)

  26. This would be the time that Israel could “catch ’em with their pants down,” as General Buck Turgidson [George C. Scott] said in Dr. Strangelove.

    Official Internet Data Office (312b8a)

  27. The rumors last year were that Ahmadinejad was out of favor with Khameini and the Ayatollahs, who really rule the country. So, 1) was he never out of favor; 2) did he get back in favor, or 3) is he too strong for the Ayatollahs to mess with?

    nk (c67cf5)

  28. Or a third party could rise, perhaps a military coup?

    Techie (482700)

  29. I blame Bush. And, Kyoto.

    JD (fd2bc3)

  30. Yup, JD, it’s not the San Andreas Fault, it’s Bush’s fault.

    Paul (creator of "Staunch Brayer") (bcc87c)

  31. The rumors last year were that Ahmadinejad was out of favor with Khameini and the Ayatollahs, who really rule the country.

    I remember being lectured by liberals after Ahmadinejad’s bellicose statements about Israel and the US that he didn’t really have any power, that all the power was with the Ayatollahs.

    I think it was wishful thinking on their part.

    Steverino (69d941)

  32. Steverino, it’s just projection.

    Eric Blair (5a226d)

  33. Steverino: Maybe it was thinkful wishing.

    The snarky Dana (474dfc)

  34. Yes, I remember that line of arguement.

    “The Iranian President doesn’t have real power, the Ayatollahs really set policy, so it doesn’t matter what verbage comes out of the Ahmadinejad’s mouth”

    to the present.

    “The Iranian Presidential elections are a real dynamo of political change and reform.”

    I’d like to see that circle squared.

    Techie (482700)

  35. Mahmoud really lost the election
    This cake is not his confection
    That the votes were unkind
    He really did mind
    So he faked away his big rejection.

    The Limerick Avenger (474dfc)

  36. I, for one, am just glad that there is a vigorous discussion going on in Iran. I’m sure that as long as people discuss things they’ll be able to work them out so everyone will be happy.

    And full of hope.

    And change.

    Gesundheit (9ca635)

  37. Of course, if Iran starts to go up in smoke, and N. Korea chooses that time to pop off a nuke…

    Perhaps this is just that test we were told about that was coming for our new president. Another one, I mean. How many tests is this now? And when do we get to see his grades?

    Gesundheit (9ca635)

  38. North Korea may not wait….

    North Korea Warns of Nuclear War

    I’ve got friends in Seattle that are more than a bit nervous right now.

    Steverino (69d941)

  39. Too bad your “friends” in Seattle voted for a President who is dismantling the missile defense system that is designed to protect them from someone such as the NoKo’s.

    AD - RtR/OS! (914de9)

  40. Missile Shield? We don’t need no stinking missile shield.

    All we need to do is sit down and talk without any preconditions.

    Techie (482700)

  41. My friends in Seattle didn’t vote for Obama. Other people may have, but it’s hardly the fault of my friends.

    Be that as it may, the city of Seattle is quite possibly within reach of a nuclear missile from North Korea, and that’s not a good thing no matter who they voted for. (Although a much better strategic target would be the Grand Coulee Dam, I don’t see NK aiming for anything other than a population center.)

    Steverino (69d941)

  42. Early on in this problem, when the NoKo’s first started talking about long-range missiles, CNN used a graphic plotting the data the NoKo’s released, that showed the impact area of a NoKo fired missile as Sacramento CA…
    Many bar-patrons in SoCal cheered when that graphic went on-screen!

    BTW, I used those quote marks around the word friends to disassociate the accusation from you and your friends, but to emphasize that others in WA State perhaps did not think comprehensively about what the consequences of their vote were.

    AD - RtR/OS! (914de9)

  43. How can this be happening? Obama gave a speech.

    In Cairo, and all.

    Evil Pundit (42e904)

  44. I guess the Iranian Mullahs know that the LiC’s words are meaningless once they pass his lips.

    AD - RtR/OS! (914de9)

  45. BTW, I used those quote marks around the word friends to disassociate the accusation from you and your friends, but to emphasize that others in WA State perhaps did not think comprehensively about what the consequences of their vote were.

    Understood. But this is hardly the thing over which we should be saying, “You reap what you sow.” The loss of a big city would be devastating to the entire country.

    Steverino (69d941)

  46. Elections do have consequences, don’t they?

    AD - RtR/OS! (914de9)

  47. I have more on this here.

    Patterico (cc3b34)

  48. Steverino wrote:

    North Korea may not wait….

    North Korea Warns of Nuclear War

    I’ve got friends in Seattle that are more than a bit nervous right now.

    While it is arguable that nuclear strikes on the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea would simply constitute a form of urban renewal, it’s important to note that having detonated a couple of nuclear weapons, at least one of which was a partial dud, and threatening a third nuclear test, means that the brilliant North Korean leadership is expending its weapons-grade material almost as fast as they are making it.

    This is the threat we face. Makes it a bit harder to tremble in fear.

    Me? I love it when Quack Jong Il sets off another nuclear test blast; that’s one more nuclear weapon that won’t be available for actual use.

    The article you linked said that it is believed that the PDRK has enough Plutonium for half a dozen atomic bombs. It also noted that the PDRK intends to continue to test until “it masters the technology to mount nuclear warheads on missiles.” Translation: North Korea’s nuclear weapons are thus far undeliverable.

    Your friends in Seattle are far more likely to be killed in an automobile accident or by roving gangs of Rocky Horror Picture Show patrons getting out of hand than a nuclear weapon from North Korea.

    The calm Dana (474dfc)

  49. Jong Il thinks they need ‘nother Kim
    Jong Un thinks it’ll be him
    The people await
    Their dismal fate
    And what’ll be Kim’s nextest whim

    The Limerick Avenger (474dfc)


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