The Fragile Obama Coalition and the Permanent Campaign
[Posted by Karl]
At RCP, David Paul Kuhn — who knows a bit about demographics — notes that in politics, demographics are not destiny:
Last week, in a Center for American Progress report, the influential liberal analyst Ruy Teixera returned to the 2008 vote and exit polls. Teixera focused the first two thirds of the paper on demographics. “A new progressive America is on the rise,” he concluded.
By now, the political class is familiar with the trends Teixera highlighted. The mountain west turned blue. Democrats won the industrial Midwest. Hispanics and youth voted two to one for Democrats. Nearly every black voter backed Barack Obama. Democrats won college graduates for the first time since Ronald Reagan came to Washington.
***
Teixera’s nearly 50-page report ignored the economic crisis impact on the electoral map. By the Gallup Poll’s tracking, Democrats were winning about 55 percent of the Hispanic vote before the first stock market crash. McCain was winning the college graduate vote. By September’s close, Democrats were winning roughly 65 percent of the Hispanic vote and college graduates.
Obama won nine states Bush took in 2004. But in six of those states, including Florida and Ohio, John McCain was ahead or tied prior to the first stock market crash on September 15. Nearly to the day of the dive, Obama rose in all nine states to soon sustain a national majority for the first time.
***
Last week, when I asked a top Democratic strategist about the demographic tailwinds at his party’s back, he shrugged. “Americans are incredibly practical people,” the strategist said. “The only ideology they are going to be loyal to is what works.”
In politics, it would be more accurate to say that the apolitical middle will be loyal to what they perceive as working. The latest Pew poll shows Pres. Obama’s job approval number among Independents dropping from 63% to 57% — and the disapproval number roughly doubling from 14% to 28% — in the course of a month. While a majority of the adults polled favors government exerting greater control over the economy “right now,” almost half are angry over the bailout of banks and institutions like AIG. Even after a good week on Wall Street, investors are still looking at more than a dozen years of paper gains gone with the wind. Six-in-ten adults think Pres. Obama is doing as much as he can to try to fix the economy, though that number may erode as the political class begins to openly question the administration’s competence and his lack of focus on the economy.
All of the above explains why Obama — who cultivated the image of Mr. Calm during the campaign — all but brought his own pitchfork and torch to yesterday’s presser. The Sorosphere may be wallowing in triumphalism, but the White House clearly is not. So this week, it’s a mix of McCain-esque rhetoric on the fundamental soundness of the economy, mixed with populist anger (also McCain-esque, technically). It is a continuation of the permanent campaign, when what Obama could use is an actual plan that inspires confidence among the global financial markets and on Main Street here.
–Karl
That evil font of conservativism, Rush Limbaugh, discussed today the phony outrage of the Obama administration over the AIG bonuses, which were known for more than a year.
The link takes you to the Mercury News article Limbaugh cited. The info about the bonuses being known for more than a year was in the middle of the article, getting just two sentences. I’d have made it the lead, which Limbaugh did in his broadcast.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R., (badb95) — 3/17/2009 @ 12:39 pmThat evil font of conservatism, Rush Limbaugh, discussed today the phony outrage of the Obama administration over the AIG bonuses, which were known for more than a year.
The link takes you to the Mercury News article Limbaugh cited. The info about the bonuses being known for more than a year was in the middle of the article, getting just two sentences. I’d have made it the lead, which Limbaugh did in his broadcast.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R., (badb95) — 3/17/2009 @ 12:40 pmWell, that’s not going to inspire confidence in the Administration. Good thing the MSM can be counted on to bury the lede.
Karl (41c0af) — 3/17/2009 @ 1:31 pmI feel inspired! Don’t you feel inspired?
Techie (9c008e) — 3/17/2009 @ 1:32 pmNot to throw cold water on the thesis, but the growing party identification of Hispanics combined with their growing numbers is what spells doom for the neo-Confederate party the GOP is becoming.
Much like Prop 187 took California out of play, Hispanics react to the anti-“illegal” immigration bias of the GOP faithful by voting democratic.
George and Karl in their “permanent campaign” tried to stem that flow in 2007 with immigration reform, but were beaten back by talk show hosts, grass roots folks, and politicians from both parties who didn’t like the bill (like the current president).
Unless the GOP finds a way to stem the anti-Republican tide in Hispanic-American circles, they will lose those voters for the next ten years.
Bold prediction: Indiana and North Carolina may return to the red column in 2012 (depends on the economy), but in 2012 Texas will be a battleground state.
PS It should be noted that I am not calling anyone here anti-immgrant or anti-Hispanic or down playing legitimate concerns regarding undocumented/illegal workers and the damage their status does.
But, the larger GOP has emphasized its law and order cred rather than emphasizing its appeal to Hispanics’ social conservatism and “freedom from taxation” rhetoric and has pushed Hispanics toward Democrats. It’s looking like a serious addition to a left of center coalition.
timb (a83d56) — 3/17/2009 @ 1:50 pmBTW, where’s the best place to download today’s Limbaugh show? Any free locations, or do I have to pay to be a member?
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R., (badb95) — 3/17/2009 @ 1:54 pmMuch like Prop 187 took California out of play, Hispanics react to the anti-”illegal” immigration bias of the GOP faithful by voting democratic.
How many times does it have to be said. Prop. 187 won, Pete Wilson won. Strong opposition to illegal immigration brought back the GOP in a state that was heading Democratic (Clinton won in 1992). Unfortunately the GOP didn’t follow through, nominating a bunch of squishes on the illegal immigration issue for the remainder of the 1990s. The funny thing is, the immigration issue helped the RINO Gobernator , remember that not only were we sweltering in the dark, but Gil Cedillo was pressing for drivers licenses to illegals. If Arnuhld did one thing, he stopped that.
Hispanics are still a small number of voters, and they vote Democratic largely because they are poor. The best way of curing that is cutting off immigration which keeps them poor.
horace (547ced) — 3/17/2009 @ 2:06 pmThe sad fact is that for Obama, the campaign is over and HE WON. Now he has to LEAD.
But he figures his best bet is to find a target du jour and demonize it.
Where’s the LEADERSHIP? He has not appointed 17 of 18 positions at Treasury, where he is supposed to be focused like a laser. Another good sign is that he have “full confidence” in Geithner. THAT, my friends is the kiss of death.
This guy makes GWB and his crew look like frigging geniuses.
Dr. K (c73ad4) — 3/17/2009 @ 2:30 pmtimb,
You may want to read the whole Kuhn article, which discusses the Hispanic vote further.
Karl (41c0af) — 3/17/2009 @ 3:06 pmNeo-confederate? I see timb has not improved his tendency of baseless and offensive namecalling.
SPQR (72771e) — 3/17/2009 @ 4:20 pmEar Leader’s main problem, besides the fact that he’s a duplicitous idiot, is that “Hope” is not a plan, and “Change” is not a goal.
i don’t question his patriotism or his competence, because i don’t believe he possess either, nor do i think he’s all that bright. what i DO question is the intelligence of the fools that voted for this empty suit.
redc1c4 (9c4f4a) — 3/17/2009 @ 4:25 pm187 (more)…
AD - RtR/OS (cf92f2) — 3/17/2009 @ 4:49 pmThis guy: “Thomas Saenz, the former Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund attorney who was reportedly in line to become head of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights division? (H/T KausFiles & InstaPundit)”, who crafted the opposition strategy to 187 in court, is another failed Obama Administration appointee.
187 died not because it was bad law, but because the CA Gov (Gray Davis) refused to defend it in court.
Saenz glared, and Davis blinked.
The advantage Obama has is that black people will support Obama no matter what because he’s black.
I once saw an interview by Howard Stern, some of you probably saw it too, in which some African Americans were asked things like “So, Obama is pro-life, do you agree with him?” And all blacks would reply, “oh yeah, sure, I’d vote for Obama because I agree with that position.”
So at least that group will remain on a near-100% approval towards the President.
Andrew (114e1c) — 3/17/2009 @ 5:37 pmActual Plan? Who needs an Actual Plan? We don’t need no steenking Actual Plan?
Well Mr. Sheriff Obama–you’d either better find an actual plan or you’d better go find the Treasure of The Sierra Madre. I’m betting you’ll find the Treasure before you come up with an actual plan.
Mike Myers (674050) — 3/17/2009 @ 7:27 pmSpeaking of the permanent campaign, The One will be
Patricia (2183bb) — 3/17/2009 @ 8:03 pmcampaigningholding a town hall meeting tomorrow in majority-Republican OC tomorrow, hoping to peel off a few more votes for 2012. Of course, by that time he will have destroyed the economy to the point that we will not be able to support his majority dolees, so it’s a questionable policy.Patricia – He’s got to get out there and distract people from the QUAGMIRE his administration has become. The personal attacks against private citizens, whether Limbaugh, Santelli, or Cramer have lost steam. The attacks against AIG and its employees, when it’s clear that Treasury and Congressional Democrats knew about the bonus plan, is just an unbelievable circle jerk. Obama would have known too if he had read his own bill.
Freaking clown needs to take his show on the road.
daleyrocks (5d22c0) — 3/17/2009 @ 8:48 pmBut, the larger GOP has emphasized its law and order cred rather than emphasizing its appeal to Hispanics’ social conservatism and “freedom from taxation” rhetoric and has pushed Hispanics toward Democrats. It’s looking like a serious addition to a left of center coalition.
Comment by timb —
Tim, the shootout by Mexican drug gangs in the streets of Houston, which is months away, if that, will change your demographic radically. Why do you think Mexicans are coming here in such numbers ? Just seven dollar an hour jobs ?
The terrible tragedy, which another Republican could use to nullify the illegal immigrant issue, is the legal immigration quagmire. Fixing that could add thousands, if not millions, of well educated voters who, like the Vietnamese, would know who to thank for their opportunity for a good life.
Armageddon is coming for the SEIU when municipalities start to declare bankruptcy and that is coming soon.
We are in interesting times with a president who will look increasingly the fool. Jay Leno is only the beginning.
Mike K (2cf494) — 3/17/2009 @ 10:26 pmMiraculous, isn’t it, that just such a financial catastrophe came along at precisely the right time to have all the swing voters swing his way? $500 billion comes out of the market mysteriously sparking panic at the Fed. Now we find that Geithner was integral in crafting the bailout details for Paulson. Gibbs is being asked questions like “What did the President know and when did he know it?” There are sooooo many coincidences here. Clearly the pressures to lend that to the credit default swap disaster were years in the making, still how likely is it that it all comes apart in October before the election?
Mary (1dc631) — 3/17/2009 @ 11:05 pm“Sorosphere.” Exactly and that fascist national service bill does nothing if not expand it. Also, a majority of voters what do not pay taxes. Card check. Cap n trade. A compliant media. This pitiful tool president person is ultimately a lot expendable to the Soros people and he knows that. Baracky’s job isn’t policy, it’s misdirection, and he’s very very good at it.
They took this neophyte dipshit and made him president. What a rush. But apart from that the Sorosphere can have every confidence in their ability to render a Republican unelectable. Their little president man needs them a lot more than they need him, and that won’t change I don’t think. It was understood from the very beginning.
happyfeet (bf7f5a) — 3/17/2009 @ 11:23 pm“Sorosphere.” Exactly and that fascist national service bill does nothing if not expand it. Also, a majority of voters what do not pay taxes. Card check. Cap n trade. A compliant media. This pitiful tool president person is ultimately a lot expendable to the Soros people and he knows that. Baracky’s job isn’t policy, it’s misdirection, and he’s very very good at it.
They took this neophyte community-organizing self-important Chicago street hustler and made him president. What a rush. But apart from that the Sorosphere can have every confidence in their ability to render a Republican unelectable. Their little president man needs them a lot more than they need him, and that won’t change I don’t think. It was understood from the very beginning.
happyfeet (bf7f5a) — 3/18/2009 @ 12:12 amHispanics react to the anti-”illegal” immigration bias of the GOP faithful by voting democratic.
Oh, so a substantial majority of the people in Mexico voting nonsensically and foolishly decade after decade for their version of liberal/Democrat-Party politicians — IOW, voting in a way that closely mirrors the election-day behavior of most people in inner-city America — is due to what? Anti-illegal-immigration bias found throughout the society to the south?! Wow!
Actually, and ironically (or not), Mexico, in fact, is quite strict in enforcing “undocumented” people from entering its southern border, so maybe some of my sarcasm is not justified.
Beyond that, an illustration of just how idiotically leftwing is the various niches of Mexican politics/government in general is perfectly illustrated by that country’s Supreme Court ruling not too many years ago that life in prison without the possibility of parole — not the death penalty, but merely life in prison — goes against the constitution of Mexico.
Then there’s the matter of an out-and-out Socialist (the former mayor of Mexico City) almost becoming president of Mexico not too long ago, but losing only by a fraction because the country’s vote was split between a liberal and an ultra-liberal, which thereby allowed the 3rd candidate running to become the current president of Mexico by default.
Mark (411533) — 3/18/2009 @ 12:14 amThe advantage Obama has is that black people will support Obama no matter what because he’s black.
More importantly, that he’s a liberal who just so happens to be black too. There’s no doubt that if Obama had the philosophical leanings of, say, a Clarence Thomas, a large percentage of black America would suddenly grow wistful and nostalgic for the days when higher political office throughout America was occupied by mainly white people, WASPs at that.
Mark (411533) — 3/18/2009 @ 12:20 amHe’s not a liberal he’s a dirty socialist. Drew Barrymore is a liberal. It’s a totally different look and feel.
happyfeet (bf7f5a) — 3/18/2009 @ 2:15 amInteresting reading some of these blogs some of which once again tell me that there is a hateful nasty element in this country.. not the same as legitimate discussion but hateful comments from hateful ignorant people. Happy feet are you reading this..
No question that there are problems with some of the elements of this massive policy that is now being undertaken and mistakes will be made but ask yourself, if we would have been in this mess if it were not for the incompetence of the last eight years.
VietnamEraVet (543dfe) — 3/18/2009 @ 5:43 amMike, I agree with your last sentiment there. But, when systemic changes to immigration law are announced, there will a populist backlash against “amnesty” led by public “Republicans” (especially talk show hosts who derive ratings from such hot button issues). In the past, it is those flare-ups which inspired the demographic change toward the Democrats.
Still, even if the charge to reform the legal immigration system was begun to add Asians (who you think will vote the “right” way), the effects of such a system would benefit all Latin American immigrants (there are just more of them wanting to come here) AND would help ameliorate the GOP’s public face. It would be a win for all concerned.
Lastly, even if you are correct in your assumption about a drug gang shoot-out (I doubt it would be Houston, since there’s no direct land route, but Phoenix or El Paso or maybe San Antonio), I still think that doesn’t help the demographic shift. White people already favor the GOP (only 43% of whites voted for Obama) and Watts-style backlash amongst white voters is going to add a few more points. That would not push the GOP over top in national elections.
In fact, I would think harsh countermeasures aimed at minorities in the affected areas would just make the vote disparity amongst Hispanic-Americans even greater in other areas of the country.
Lastly, for the generous SPQR, who adds so much rational commentary, “neo-Confederate refers to the geographic appearance of red states versus blue and I am hardly the first person to note the GOP’s main areas of success are in states which seceded and the territories which saw the most fighting, while the blue states (the coasts and the Rust Belt) bear a striking resemblance to Union map. It is nice to see the recent navel-gazing bs about language and all other things pointless enabled you to be distracted by the shiny word.
timb (8f04c0) — 3/18/2009 @ 5:44 amoh. My bad. What I meaned was I heart my dirty socialist president! He puts the boom boom into my heart I think.
hf (9bda9c) — 3/18/2009 @ 6:21 amfeets!
Karl (8966b4) — 3/18/2009 @ 6:26 amneo-Confederate refers to the geographic appearance of red states
Everyone, all together now:
WACIST!
Dmac (49b16c) — 3/18/2009 @ 7:30 am“…I doubt it would be Houston, since there’s no direct land route…”
AD - RtR/OS (64ac21) — 3/18/2009 @ 8:54 amBut then, you postulate it will happen in San Antonio, which is just down the
land-routeInterstate from Houston?Clue-less!
I don’t know about you other chumps, but I gave my servants and staff specific instructions on how to vote.
I’m doing my part to pump up the Republican share of the minority and ethnic vote.
daleyrocks (5d22c0) — 3/18/2009 @ 9:16 am“growing party identification of Hispanics combined with their growing numbers is what spells doom for the neo-Confederate party the GOP is becoming.”
That the GOP is as dead as the Whigs at its birth is a given. That said, the quoted sentiment is wishful thinking. No jobs, no affiliation; hasta la vista, baby.
gary gulrud (6c4143) — 3/18/2009 @ 9:27 amAgain Ad, way to miss the forest for the trees. Nonetheless, lying on the direct land route between Mexico and the northern US (where drug dealers want their drugs) is a city called San Antonio.
As the recent article in Foreign Policy magazine made clear, Phoenix is ground zero at this present time.
Thanks for your parsing, though, since it was instrumental to the point of showing Karl is mistaken if he believes the “coalition” is fragile. That coalition is one or two national election cycles from cementing itself and sending the readers of this site (me not included) into a twenty year minority status.
timb (a83d56) — 3/18/2009 @ 9:32 amtimb, things change fast. The democrats don’t have to be the party of the ‘Mexicans’ forever. In fact, it’s downright unlikely that the democrat tendency to switch positions on civil rights won’t repeat itself again.
If most Americans are happy with the way the Democrats run things, then the Democrats deserve to be in power. Personally, I see the GOP evolving a lot in the future.
Anyone claiming they have an idea what the political parties will look like in 20 years is out of touch. WAY out of touch. Things are changing very fast.
Juan (4cdfb7) — 3/18/2009 @ 9:36 amTimb – Teleprompter Barry got 52% of the vote. Has anything he’s done likely to increase that percentage? His approval ratings are headed only one way and that will only get worse as time goes on. That 52 is the highest possible level for your side and it was only possible due to the number of conservatives that sat out. You can’t count on that happening again.
Have Blue (974cdf) — 3/18/2009 @ 10:33 amI can’t wait for the revolutionaries to complete the burning of the fields so that they will be unable to construct those straw-men that they love to debate, and have to legitimately debate the issues at hand, and not the issue in their hand.
AD - RtR/OS (64ac21) — 3/18/2009 @ 10:53 amtimb, your display of your lack of both historical and geographical knowledge in your pathetic attempt to explain away the offensive nature of your name calling was not a surprise.
SPQR (72771e) — 3/18/2009 @ 12:26 pmdebunker man, you bore me. If all you want to do is argue over semantics, then Jeff Goldstein has a website for the angry white guy pissed off at other people’s language.
timb (a83d56) — 3/19/2009 @ 11:23 amtimb, your cheap namecalling isn’t “semantics”. It is rather indicative of your level of thought. Low.
SPQR (72771e) — 3/19/2009 @ 11:32 amWell, actually I don’t care. Since the Republican party received almost as many votes as they did in 2004 (Bush received 62,040,610 votes and McCain got 59,934,814) and the Dems added 10 million votes (59 million to 69 million), I’m not too concerned.
Further, a lot of those “stay at home” conservatives live in states in which Republicans were gonna win anyway. I could care less if Georgia Republicans or Kansas Republicans vote in 2012, the Electoral College challenge presented by the Dem coalition is very difficult to beat.
As far as fearing conservatives. Dear Lord, they couldn’t even keep the Republican party from nominating McCain. Why would I be afraid of a group that cannot even control its own party?
In the end, Have Blue, I’ll take my chances.
timb (a83d56) — 3/19/2009 @ 11:39 amdebunker man, I did not cheap name call. I made a reference to a historical map. I’m sorry you don’t know about it, but maybe you could go look at one and then look at the 2008 electoral map.
Or, more likely, accuse me of being stupid for “cheap namecalling.” What’s that make you? A hypocrite or someone who does not understand irony?
timb (a83d56) — 3/19/2009 @ 11:42 amHi Karl! I had to rewrite that comment for the filter. That’s kind of fun to have someone say hey that’s going too far mister and then have to rephrase but then it looks kind of weird when both get published. But I really like “Sorosphere.”
happyfeet (ba8a9d) — 3/21/2009 @ 9:50 pm