Patterico's Pontifications

11/4/2008

Open Thread on Election Results — With A Couple Rules

Filed under: General — WLS @ 4:16 pm



[Posted by WLS Shipwrecked]

Patterico has always maintained his comments as a very “open” forum.  But, I want to have a couple of rules for comments on this post.

1.  Regardless of the outcome, no bashing of the other side whether in victory or defeat.

2.  Let’s try to minimize rank rumor and speculation, and put up as much in the way of semi-verifiable facts as we can find across the net and the airwaves.

Violations will be deleted.

110 Responses to “Open Thread on Election Results — With A Couple Rules”

  1. reports of polls staying open late in indianolis – any one know the reason why?

    Joe-Dallas (523342)

  2. Early results across Indiana not promising. Key Dem party strongholds are in Indianapolis and NW corner of state which are really suburbs of Chicago — Gary and a couple of other cities.
    They are notorious for late reporting of vote totals. Right now McCain lead is modest, while votes from Indy and Gary are not yet reported.

    WLS (c1b09d)

  3. If you have DirecTV HD, you REALLY need to check out the Election Mix on Channel 102 (also at 352).

    ABC-HD, NBC-HD, CBS-HD, FOX-HD broadcast networks, plus CNN-HD, FNC-HD, MSNBC-HD & BBC-America(SD) all up at the same time, with selectable audio by cursor.

    IF you only have standard def, it’s pretty blurry, but if you have HD it’s VERY VERY COOL.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  4. Jim Treacher has a terrific link to a pollster I haven’t read before now. Interesting ‘insider views’ from Sean Malstrom, a long time pollster who bravely calls it as he sees it: Obama is Toast. (!)

    We’ve overdosed on media expectations, definitely. Which makes this analysis really interesting. Malstrom dissects the pollsters and what this election means to them and their future credibility. The Malstrom take basically argues for a definite McCain win with Pennsylvania as the state that will mark this election (i.e. FL 2000).

    Jim says of Malstrom:

    I hadn’t heard of Sean Malstrom before today, but I like his style. He has put into words all the stuff I’ve been feeling for weeks now but haven’t been able to express. Here’s a taste:

    [S.M.] One thing that is very different about this election is the omnipresence of polls and how polls are the axis around all political analysis is conducted. This has never been the case in previous elections. Real political analysts (meaning not hacks or unprofessional pundits), use historical trends, demographical data, and other ‘truths’ of past elections. Much of this cannot be translated into a chart or graph. It is a myth that analysis is done via math or graphs or computer models. The original economists, for example, used only words and essays. Political analysis is not about math. Political analysis is about people. To analyze politics, you must be able to analyze people. In other words, the poet and novelist becomes the political analyst, not the mathematician and software engineer. Politics is all about people.

    It seems no one is interested in studying ‘people’ anymore. Look at the political analysis currently. There is very little analysis of the current ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative’, for example, or the person from Pennsylvania or person from Iowa. In fact, there are no people. There are only numbers. Stark, lifeless, numbers. The problem with leveling political analysis to nothing more than a soup of numbers is that it cannot measure intensity. What does intensity have to do with politics? Well, everything. Intense people are those who vote.

    Pollsters aren’t polling demos & people any more. They’re gluing numbers together and following agendas. We’ll see if this very interesting take. . . takes! Thanks, Jim.

    http://www.jimtreacher.com/

    Vermont Neighbor (c91cfe)

  5. Say, aren’t the Florida polls still open in the Panhandle (2000 anyone).

    Are they really reporting the polls closed?

    Pious Agnostic (b2c3ab)

  6. Jim Geraghty isn’t worried but these Indiana numbers don’t look that good.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  7. IN results will be late. Lake will not report until they knoe how many votes Baracky needs.

    JD (5f0e11)

  8. MSNBC calls PA for Obama.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  9. Dog bites man.

    Dmac (e30284)

  10. MSNBC called the entire election when Baracky was nominated.

    JD (5f0e11)

  11. This just in – Olberman likes Obama.

    Dmac (e30284)

  12. WLS – If I suggested Obama stole the portions of the election he hasn’t bought would you delete the comment?

    daleyrocks (60704b)

  13. ABC calls Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama, as well as “Vermont, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington DC, Delaware, Illinois, and three of Maine’s four electoral votes.” The banner says it is based on exit polls and votes cast so far.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  14. Excuse me while I cling to my guns and religion.

    JD (5f0e11)

  15. BTW, the FL panhandle doesn’t close until 8pm CT, one hour later than Miami/Orlando/Tampa.
    Just like 2000, they’re going to call it before it’s over.

    Another Drew (184a22)

  16. Does anyone know if thr suburban Indianapolis counties have reported?

    JD (5f0e11)

  17. Michael Barone states that the calls so far are using exit polling.

    Another Drew (184a22)

  18. JD: You can select a state from the dropdown menu on this Google map, and then hover over the counties to see the reporting percentage so far.

    Hagan beats Liddy Dole in NC.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  19. Fox has called Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  20. McCain up by 10% with 38% reporting in VA, but no one is calling it for him yet, must not have northern counties reporting yet.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  21. IN results will be late. Lake will not report until they knoe how many votes Baracky needs.

    Comment by JD — 11/4/2008 @ 4:57 pm

    Junior Detective is on the case!

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  22. Anyone know why PA has been called so early?

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  23. Marc Ambinder says Clark County NV (Las Vegas) turnout is at 80%, which is almost certainly bad for McCain.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  24. tnj – STFU

    Aplomb – Thank you. That is pretty nifty. The early numbers in IN do not look so great.

    JD (5b4781)

  25. To All Heroic Peoples of Patterico.com:

    According to the Politico interactive map, only two states have actually counted at least 40% of its real votes as of right now, and that’s Kentucky and Virginia–and in each, McCain is trouncing Obama.

    Official Internet Data Office (df6254)

  26. Exit polls showed suburban Philly going heavily Obama, and that was considered the swing region for the entire state, Truth.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  27. To All Heroic Peoples of Patterico.com:

    Correction–make that three states. Add Indiana, 48% counted, with McCain ahead by 3 points.

    Official Internet Data Office (df6254)

  28. OIDO – That 3% is not going to hold up with Lake County still out. They just need to know the proper margin.

    JD (5b4781)

  29. No reason to stop being a lady, Junior Detective. OIDO… that is precious that you’re still holding out hope, and you’re pointing to the results in KY as an indication that McCain is looking good.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  30. Here’s a link to the Pennsylvania elections website if you want to follow the results in the PA-12 Murtha/Russell Congressional race.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  31. No states have counted more than about half their real votes yet. Also, polls in Kentucky and Indiana, plus Vermont, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia closed the earliest–at 7 PM Eastern.

    Official Internet Data Office (df6254)

  32. Obama: 102
    McCain: 43

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  33. Ouch. Wyoming went to McCain.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  34. If Obama performs to the same standard re his promises/assurances/inferences that the Democratic Congress did after the 2006 election;

    What degree of angst will be generated amongst the Dem Base?

    Will the resulting condition be more or less pathological than BDS>

    Another Drew (184a22)

  35. Obama:174
    McCain:49

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  36. Weird, Obama looks like he might lose VA but win NC.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  37. If Obama performs to the same standard re his promises/assurances/inferences that the Democratic Congress did after the 2006 election;

    What degree of angst will be generated amongst the Dem Base?

    None. Obots are brainwashed. It’s a vote against Bush, on a ballot that doesn’t even have his name. Then, there’s the 97% of people voting for Obama no matter how many thugs/scams and deals he’s connected with.

    An anti-war rally could make Pres. Obama sweat a little though, seeing as he’s flip-flopped so much from his original primary promises.

    Vermont Neighbor (c91cfe)

  38. McCain: Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Alamaba, Tennesse, Kentucky, South Carolina. = 49
    Is there hope for McCain?

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  39. McCain: Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Alamaba, Tennesse, Kentucky, South Carolina. = 49
    Is there hope for McCain?

    Comment by love2008 — 11/4/2008 @ 6:11 pm

    No

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  40. I think Obama clinched it with Pennsylvania but, on the plus side, I won’t have to stay up late tonight.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  41. If Obama performs to the same standard re his promises/assurances/inferences that the Democratic Congress did after the 2006 election;

    What degree of angst will be generated amongst the Dem Base?

    Will the resulting condition be more or less pathological than BDS>

    Comment by Another Drew — 11/4/2008 @ 6:03 pm

    If Obama is elected president, he will not be the one performing. It will be Vladimir Putin and Hu Jintao.

    nk (95bfab)

  42. Woah, MSNBC gives Ohio to Obama.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  43. tmj – Did you read what WLS said in the post above?

    Aplomb – As we noted previously, MSNBC also called Mars, Uranus, Germany, and Australia for Baracky last Thursday.

    JD (5b4781)

  44. Well, Fox is giving Ohio to Obama, too.

    According to MSNBC, he’s at exactly 200 EVs now (they just gave him NM too). CA, OR, and WA would be enough to put him over the top.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  45. I don’t know if it will hold up but Murtha called his constituents racist rednecks and yet he’s still leading Russell in PA-12 by 53%-46%. Amazing.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  46. Obama: 194. Including PA, and OH. Mind you, no Republican can win the white house without OH. I perceive a blowout. This looks like a landslide!

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  47. True landslides like Ronald Reagan’s don’t leave the losing presidential candidate with the amount of electoral votes that McCain already has.

    Obama will win tonight, but he’ll again underperform the polling.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  48. CNN projects Obama will win Florida.

    DRJ (cb68f2)

  49. McConnell holds on in KY, that was the race I was looking at to see if the Dems can get to 60, doubt they will now.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  50. Wow, RCP has called OH for Obama. If that’s true, go to bed now — Obama can lose everything else, and win just by picking up California, Oregon and Washington.

    Phil (3b1633)

  51. I don’t know if it will hold up but Murtha called his constituents racist rednecks and yet he’s still leading Russell in PA-12 by 53%-46%. Amazing.

    They will have to come up with a new term, similar to “yellow dog Dems” for the people of Murtha’s district.

    JD (5b4781)

  52. McCain needs a miracle folks. Pray my brethren! Florida must not fall into the hands of terrorists! Pray!

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  53. DRJ. Really? Has Florida already fallen? OMG!

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  54. Let the Republican recriminations begin! If you’re a member of one of the heretofore apostate parts of the Republican coalition now’s the time to start sharpening the knives and looking towards 2012. Don’t waste your time in the wilderness.

    Fritz (9cc64f)

  55. Ya know, if we got rid of all of the states in the Pacific time zone, this would actually be an somewhat interesting race.

    Phil (3b1633)

  56. 47-Smells like a mandate to me!

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  57. Put the paddles down. The patient’s dead.

    –JRM

    JRM (355c21)

  58. Looks like the GOP will retain enough Senate seats to be able to keep the Democrats from being able to override filibusters.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  59. ABC needs to grow some balls and call Mississippi for McCain already. They called PA for Obama with 4 percent of the votes in, and yet they’re still listing Mississippi as a toss-up with 36 percent of the votes in and McCain leading by like 50,000 votes.

    Phil (3b1633)

  60. Ah, Phil. Let’s relax. I let my hopes build up to think that polls were closer than they were. Let the media have their day. In the end, we can say I told you so when the taxes go up and the jobs are destroyed. For now, stiff upper lip.

    Tim (3515d0)

  61. Tim is right. If we see a repeat of what happened under Clinton we’re all in for a long couple of… wait… ohhhh right. Things were good.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  62. Fox is calling Mississippi for McCain.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  63. Who knows for sure about Florida? Where does it stand?

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  64. Aww, Nader conceded.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  65. And Shays loses, New England has no GOP in the House anymore.

    Wonder if we will see any GOP Senators flip party like Chaffee did. I could see Snow doing that.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  66. Fox hasn’t called Jack Murtha’s race, but Murtha is on TV claiming victory already. It would be nice if he is embarrassing himself.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  67. I wouldn’t have minded at all to see Murtha lose. I guess pork > being called a racist redneck.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  68. Hey, at this moment, it is actually still possible that I cast the deciding vote in my home state of Indiana. So I’m happy that I resisted the rather strong urge to cast a vote for Bob Barr.

    Phil (3b1633)

  69. Prediction:
    Obama: 314
    McCain: 224
    That is after giving Florida, NC, VA, and IN to McCain.
    I could be wrong. I hope.

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  70. For those critical of MSNBC: as of now, it’s called the same number of EVs for Obama as CNN (207)but more EVs for McCain than CNN (a difference of about 40).
    Neither one seems to have called Florida, which is surprising–in the urban areas, even Harris country, McCain is as best about 50/50 (Tampa-St. Pete and Jacksonville). In Orlando (Orange County) with almost all the votes counted there, Obama leads by about 85k. In Broward (Fort Lauderdale) he’s ahead by about 200k, and in Miami-Dade by 120k, with just under half the votes reported there. In Palm Beach Obama’s ahead by about 100k, but only 11% of the precincts are reporting there. (Did Palm Beach continue the great tradition of butterfly ballot screwups?) Palm Beach is Republican enough that margin might come down a lot, and there may still be a lot of Cuban votes yet to be counted, but I don’t think that’s enough to make up the difference.

    In the House races, Allen West is behind, but if there’s a GOP surge in those uncounted Palm Beach precincts, he might make it. In the marquee races (meaning, the ones with the ads that ran ad nauseam, and I mean that literally), Lincoln Diaz Balart seems to be comfortably ahead, but Mario Diaz Balart is in a fifty fifty race so far with his challenger. Of course, Lincoln has the advantage of having one of the most corrupt politicians in Florida for his opponent, and made the most of that in his ads. (For those who don’t recognize the name, the Diaz Balart brothers are two of the Cuban GOP stalwarts in Florida’s delegation, and in an only-in- Florida/Cuba twist are nephews by marriage to Castro. The Democratic Party is making a special effort against them this year.)

    And speaking of only-in-Florida, last night I got a robocall aimed at the Democratic candidate in the sheriff’s race, which accused him of trying to pretend he was Jewish even though he attends Cavalry Chapel. (The Democrat is named Scott Israel. I have no idea if he is Jewish, and if he is whether he is really a convert to Christianity.)

    kishnevi (8349ff)

  71. If I may:

    Obama, 357
    McCain 182

    I call Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Virginia and North Carolina for Obama.

    Phil (3b1633)

  72. This is a sad, but expected, result.

    JD (5b4781)

  73. Still looking to me as though Obama will significantly underperform polling data in his win. Only love2008 could call this a landslide.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  74. Oh for CRISSAKE, we need to see ABC call Mississippi for McCain. Now they’re just looking like fools: 362k McCain, 263k Obama with 64 percent reporting.

    Phil (3b1633)

  75. In any case, it certainly is a mandate, spqr.

    snuffles (677ec2)

  76. Comment by Phil — 11/4/2008 @ 7:44 pm
    Phil, you are not generous. I denounce you!

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  77. Oh, give it a rest, truffles. Time to show a bit of noblisse oblige, don’t you think?

    Eric Blair (a723e0)

  78. snuffles, a mandate? That’s an exaggeration.

    But of course, a “mandate” for what? Obama has flip-flopped on so many substantive positions just in the last year. Is it a “mandate” for a pro-second amendment, tax cutting, anti gay marriage, anti-single payer health care policy, pro NAFTA Obama?

    SPQR (26be8b)

  79. Oh my GOD Indiana just went blue. I’ve been living in this state for 7 years now, and I never thought I’d see this day, really.

    Phil (3b1633)

  80. The whole idea of a mandate is kind of silly. Bush lost the popular vote so arguably he didn’t have a “mandate”, didn’t stop him from correctly exercising the full power and authority of the Presidency just as much as as Reagan or FDR did after their sweep elections. Obama’s the President no matter if he wins by one vote or 20 million votes as long as he gets the EVs.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  81. Virginia has been called for Obama by Fox.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  82. Aplomb, indeed. The question is really how Obama intends to govern as President. Would he attempt to maintain the moderate positions he campaigned upon, or would he adopt more left-wing positions that his supporters believe that he actually holds.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  83. MSNBC calls it officially for Obama at 11 eastern time sharp, coloring in CA, OR, and WA blue.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  84. snuffles, a mandate? That’s an exaggeration.

    Bush claimed a non-existant mandate in 04 and he won by a lot less than Obama is going to win by.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  85. YES WE CAN!

    Thanks for the support, guys.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  86. Every network calls for Obama.

    Well, that’s the end of the Republican Party that catered to the tendencies on this site. We shall see what replaces it.

    Cyrus Sanai (4df861)

  87. Only a 2 to 4% spread?

    With a stock market meltdown, 800 million spent, MSM putting it all out for Obama?

    only 2 to 4%?

    EricPWJohnson (b61ef9)

  88. Can we all say it together: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  89. I think McCain would need every single vote yet to be reported to merely catch up with Obama in Florida, but they’re still not calling it, apparently.

    And Montana: with 6 percent of the precincts reporting–Obama 50% McCain 47% Paul 2%

    kishnevi (8349ff)

  90. say it together: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!

    Al Qaeda can say it! Hamas can say it and Iran, too. So how about Americans? Yes, we can! Fair and honest are certainly open to interpretation, as shown since the primaries.

    Vermont Neighbor (c91cfe)

  91. Phil–take a deep breath and relax. the MSN widget shows Indiana still up for grabs.

    kishnevi (8349ff)

  92. In any case, it certainly is a mandate, spqr.

    Really? Explain.

    JD (5b4781)

  93. SPQR: I actually think Obama will be a moderating influence on Pelosi and the Sen. leader (not sure Reid will be back in that position). President has to deal with a lot more competing interests tending to keep him in the middle than act upon a liberal congressperson in a safe seat. As liberal as his voting record was in the Senate, I think he’ll find the job pulls him to the center. Kind of like Clinton moderated after the first couple of years.

    Could be wrong, but I assume he’ll be more moderate than his more liberal supporters might want. I don’t think honest conservatives will have that much to really be outraged about (assuming they accept of course he’s going to be more liberal than they are on a whole host of issues) except perhaps for aggressive universal health care plans.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  94. 87–that’s just a testament to the fact that approximately half the US electorate is conservative or conservative leaning.

    kishnevi (8349ff)

  95. Conceded.

    Fritz (9cc64f)

  96. Indiana for Baracky?!?!?! Good Allah.

    JD (5b4781)

  97. McCain’s concession speech is all sorts of classy. For a shitty candidate, he sure hit the right note with this speech.

    JD (5b4781)

  98. Comment by Vermont Neighbor — 11/4/2008 @ 8:14 pm
    You are so hateful and spiteful. This is your next President. Swallow your bride and accept the olive branch. The war is over. It’s time to come together. It is a time to rejoice and look forward for the best.

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  99. It’s time to come together.

    Bullshit. Unless you and Baracky plan on moving to the right, I have no obligation to join in some hocus pocus unity. Baracky should demonstrate his great skill at bringing people together and win me over.

    JD (5b4781)

  100. This is the John McCain the world loves, respects and honours. A great speech. Worthy of a true American hero. A true maverick.
    Yes JD, A really classy speech.

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  101. Yeah props to McCain for that concession, entirely proper and classy.

    Kerry got a lot of credit from conservatives for his nice speech, and I’m happy to give McCain the same credit.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  102. I’m probably going to lose on my Missouri prediction, unless St. Louis constitutes the vast majority of the remaining precincts. The rest of my prediction appears to stand, however.

    Phil (3b1633)

  103. If Minnesota elects Al Fuckin’ Franken to the US Senate, I am going to circulate a petition to kick those wanna-be Canadians out of the Union.

    JD (5b4781)

  104. Look. Everyone knows this lying POS got in through the back door. His masters sealed every possible record, lied, flipped all promises and accepted illegal donations. And the Acorn fraud, too. It’s sad that a minority can’t win on actual merit and accomplishment, but that’s Barack Obama. For now, this will be his longest job to date, presuming he makes it 4 years in the Whyte House. I believe he will. He’s got Chicago’s best handlers.

    Barack hoards wealth. He doesn’t share it. Not with you, not with his family.

    You voted on race, remember? “way deep up inside me, I just want to see a brother win.”

    The delicious part will be when this A-A lying POS brings down the country. Because you will suffer along with the rest of us! For that I am truly grateful… way deep up inside, if you know what I mean.

    Vermont Neighbor (c91cfe)

  105. Vermont Neighbor

    Hes an opposing politician but to me he is a precious American citizen – who I fudamentally disagree with on just about everything – whose well being I will protect with every breath of my rather enormous body – President Obama is my president and I am a citizen of the United States of America – the last great hope for enslaved people everywhere.

    I wish him no ill will – it is time to put the swords of 2008 away and look forward to 2010

    Save it for the next game buddy

    chipping away for 2012

    EricPWJohnson (b61ef9)

  106. Portfolio adjustments already in place. But I really feel sorry for the new President. He’s an economic/monetary tyro without a clue, and in a lose-lose situation with the current Fed and congressional overseers. A trader’s dream, but a concerned and worried American citizen’s nightmare. The only hope I have is remembering Carter was the one who brought in Volcker. Talk about a Trojan horse.

    And just wait until Obama gets the first shot across the bow from the anti-globalization, anti-capitalism weenies. That’s the trouble with leftists, they eat their own without compunction.

    Interesting trying to guess when exactly the afterglow fades. Some pretty mean-spirited people on that side of the fence. Republicans are pussycats in comparison given their proclivity for reasonableness and compromise.

    Actually the portfolio adjustments were in place no matter who the victor was. This changing world order is a lot bigger than any president can deal with. Markets will always trump the govts. Just a matter of time. Oil markets did in the USSR, and doing a number on Iran and Venezuela right now, just for one example. For now…food and water waiting in the wings. Shortages of any number of things are waiting in the shadows biding their time.

    allan (fe530d)

  107. The threshold from cult personality to being the man to blame will rain on anyones parade

    He did promise

    And he wont be able to deliver

    EricPWJohnson (b61ef9)

  108. #104
    It’s enough! Patterico, it’s time you step up and ban this bigot from this honourable blog. She is evil! Ban her and prove that yes we can put away the hate and anger and look forward to this new presidency.
    Ban Vermont Neighbor!

    love2008 (1b037c)

  109. Can it, lovie. When you start calling for banning people like tmj and their brand of hate, then maybe someone somewhere might listen to you.

    JD (5b4781)

  110. Interesting comment at 93 — Durbin is the 2nd in line in the Senate on the Dem side. Obama has always been very friendly with him. Obama might be more comfortable with Durbin leading the Senate than with Reid, who is a complete idiot and everyone knows it. McConnell still has enough bullets to be dangerous. Keeping it at 42 is key, because even if Snowe or Collins was to consider leaving the party, Lieberman would probably move the other way to keep the Dems from having 60. I think he sees value in a true two-party Senate.

    WLS (c1b09d)


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