The MSM Is Busy Filling In Their Electoral Maps Based On State-By-State Polling That, If Accurate, Means the National Tracking Polls Are Off Nearly Double
[Posted by WLS Shipwrecked]
I continue to be fascinated by the issue of whether Obama will prevail by a large enough nationwide vote total to overcome the advantages of small states in the Electoral College, when most of those small states will be going for McCain — while all but one of the most populous states will go for Obama.
Today I’m trying to reconcile nationwide tracking polls that show a 4-5 point race, with the projections of a blowout in the electoral college, in light of the inherent advantage that small states have over large states.
I broke down the vote totals in each state being predicted by the latest polling posted at CNN, using the 2004 vote totals for each state increased by 10%. I’ve previously used projected increases as high as 25%, but I heard one analyst on CNN last night predict that the nationwide increase over 2004 will probably be around 10%.
The math comparing the state polls to the national tracking polls doesn’t add up – one or the other is way off. The national tracking polls are bouncing around anywhere from 3 to 7. Let’s call the nationwide result next Tuesday at 4.5%, and make the outcome of the election at 51.5 to 47.5, with 1% going to third parties.
At 51.5%, Obama would receive 68 million votes, and McCain would receive 62.7 million votes at 47.5%, for a overall win by Obama of 5.3 million votes.
I looked through all the state polls in all the states that are being used by CNN on their interactive electoral map, which can be found here.
I wanted to include all the math in this post, but WordPress doesn’t incorporate columns of numbers very well, and I can’t get it to line up. But based on current polling, here are some samples of what Obama’s winning margins would be in certain specific states:
CA — 3.1 million votes
IL — 1.4 million votes
MI — 1.2 million votes
MN — 600k votes
NJ — 900k votes
NY — 2.5 million votes
NC — 230k votes
PA — 1.2 million votes
McCain wins by more than a million votes in only one state — TX by 1.5 million.
When you go state by state, estimate the vote total from 2004, and then apply the current poll, Obama would win the nationwide vote by 10.1 million votes. The percentages would be 53.8 to 46.1, a spread of 7.7%.
If you average the 6 nationwide tracking polls at Rasmussen, split the undecideds, and give 1% to 3rd parties, you end up at 52-47. So the state-by-state polls being used by the MSM are saying OBAMA is going to OUTPERFORM his national polling by 2%, and McCain is going to under-perform by 1%. That’s a net 3 point swing of nearly 5 million voters.
These state-by-state polls are being used by the MSM to fill in their electoral maps and declare Obama a likely landslide winner with 350+ EVs, taking FL, IN, NC, OH, and VA.
Don’t be fooled. It’s going to be 3-4 points on Sunday, and Obama is going to under-perform just as he has consistently. Undecideds are going to vote better than even for McCain. If they haven’t been convinced to drink the Kool-Aid yet, given all that has happened with him since the Iowa caucuses, there is a reason why they haven’t.
For the first time since mid-September, Rasmussen had McCain and Obama even on the issue of the economy. McCain was down 9 points on that issue at the time of the debates. That is going to be reflected in the balloting only on election day.
– WLS Shipwrecked