Patterico's Pontifications

10/21/2008

Fun With Electoral Maps

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 10:08 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

It’s unlikely but indulge me: Plan B — How McCain could win.

— DRJ

41 Responses to “Fun With Electoral Maps”

  1. The only question is whether or not there is enough time, and energy, to close the gap, and take the lead?

    Another Drew (7866bb)

  2. There are signals that Obama does not think his lead is as great as its polled. For instance, in Colorado, he’s running a completely ludicrous and laughable ad that claims he is pro-Second Amendment.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  3. Comment by SPQR — 10/21/2008 @ 10:50 pm

    His claim is entirely accurate as long as you believe that the 2nd-Amendment only applies to the militia, and that it does not involve an individual right, and as long as you believe that firearm possession is entirely at the purview of government.
    If you believe all that, then you believe that Barack Obama supports the 2nd-Amendment.

    Another Drew (7866bb)

  4. The issue is simple, and we all know it:

    To get elected, Barack Obama is trying to be all things to all voters.

    Now, all politicians do that to some degree. But he should just put on a wetsuit and go windsurfing, and then go to Burger King later (like John Kerry, trying to somehow connect with “regular people”).

    Barack Obama is a hard Left politician. And I don’t write that to be obnoxious. There are lots of hard Left politicians. His voting record and public statements prior to the Democratic Convention bear this out. That is why he hung out with Jeremiah Wright. That is why he worked with Bill Ayres. There is no mystery here.

    Folks like Buckley or Adelman or the like…notice how they keep saying “...surely he will govern from the center…

    Except that has NOT been how he has voted, and acted, in the past.

    So why not go ahead and just BE the Barack Obama that actually was in the State House and in the Senate? In other words, not hide from the voting record?

    Because he wouldn’t get enough votes, even running against GW Bush (because that is what he is really doing, which is unfair to McCain).

    It could be that people are waking up, and seeing the real Barack Obama (“...spread the wealth around..”), along with these HUGE gaffes from Biden that the MSM doesn’t seem to want to cover. With Biden flapping his gums—with nearly 40 years of experience in the Senate—I don’t know why the MSM dares snicker at Palin.

    So maybe people are waking up. Obama did blurt out his “real” feelings with Joe the Plumber, and the way that the MSM dissected the guy, and how contemptuous Obama was of the man later…well, that gave many people pause.

    Unless you hate McCain so much (as apparently do Buckley and Adelman and Noonan) that you can just close your eyes and “hope” that the “change” you support won’t damage the country.

    So the map above certainly doesn’t mean McCain will win. But I sure hope that the Third Party people and the Bizarro-World Obama-publicans are happy with the results in foreign policy and the SCOTUS if the Junior Senator from Illinois wins.

    But the race ain’t over. And that isn’t about “racism,” no matter how the MSM wants it to be. Iowa proved that.

    Eric Blair (cc02e6)

  5. That map you link is I think the only plausible one that will lead to a McCain victory.

    I think there is about a 10% chance McCain will win in two weeks, and if it happens it will probably look just like that.

    Aplomb (b6fba6)

  6. The only electoral map I care about is the one on Nov. 4. Until then, I don’t trust any of this crap.

    Jim Treacher (592cb4)

  7. Interesting. I didn’t think he could win without Va but it makes sense. I am skeptical about the large lead Obama has in Va according to the polls.

    voiceofreason2 (b4f12c)

  8. Personally, I think we’re headed for a Pauline Kael type of moment.

    I’m just not sure which side will be experiencing it.

    EW1(SG) (ec2899)

  9. Gasp! A pro-second amendment democratic president? He would be unbeatable. Yeah, he is. Deal with it. You can’t divide the public with side shows about guns and abortion then take over and wage middle/lower class warefare any more. The days of Reagan’s idiotic ‘trickle-down’ economic system are over.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  10. #8,
    It won’t be easy for either side. Just hope the adults of both parties keep the crazies in line.

    voiceofreason2 (b4f12c)

  11. Comment by truthnjustice — 10/22/2008 @ 3:27 am

    LOL – thanks for the perfect timing for my comment in 10.

    voiceofreason2 (b4f12c)

  12. You are preaching to the choir on that one, VOR-II. I have been trying to keep these crazies in line for a while now.

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  13. He would be unbeatable.

    It’s too bad y’all tossed Zell Miller under the bus.

    More’n likely, he’s a little old to be wanting to run, but the disgrace that was his treatment can’t be real conducive to attracting thoughtful, sincere Democrats who aren’t freakin’ commie racists like the average Obamabot we’ve seen here the last couple of days.

    EW1(SG) (ec2899)

  14. Coughs – no. I think you missed the point.

    voiceofreason2 (b4f12c)

  15. I have been trying to keep these crazies in line for a while now.

    I just have to indulge the irony of pointing out that you are one of the crazies we’re talking about.

    EW1(SG) (ec2899)

  16. #14 vor2~

    <highfive>Whoop!</highfive>

    EW1(SG) (ec2899)

  17. Alright, who keeps serving EW1? He’s cut off for the night. You have NO IDEA what a communist is. I want you to look it up and type the definition in a post on this thread. When you’re done, I expect everyone else to read it before using it in a sentence. Obviously, you tools have no idea what communism is. Well, you’re at least 20 years too late in using that word to scare Americans. Can’t you find another one?
    Like, homosexual? That one worked. Let’s see how it fits into the psyche: “Oh no! If I vote for Obama my dad is going to turn gay?” -Perfect! You’re on your way!

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  18. Zell Miller is a raging lunatic. On second thought, why wasn’t he tapped for the Veep spot on the RNC?

    truthnjustice (d99227)

  19. “…surely he will govern from the center…”

    The supporters of Baracky have to take such a leap of faith. They have to believe that he will either live up to his campaign rhetoric, which he has no record of ever doing, or follow his old voting patterns, which he says he is not going to do.

    JD (c69925)

  20. Gasp! A pro-second amendment democratic president?

    A lie.

    JD (c69925)

  21. The only question is whether or not there is enough time, and energy, to close the gap, and take the lead?

    Yes.

    Jim Treacher (592cb4)

  22. Treach – You have more faith than I.

    JD (c69925)

  23. I have to agree that this is McCain’s best chance right now. Ohio and Pennsylvania are two states that still have lots of people who buy the “believe in Jesus and someday he’ll make you rich” theory. People like Joe the (“really, I am, I’m rich and I’m gonna buy a business”) Plumber. These people are really the staunchest Republicans right now, because all they’ve got, and all they’ve ever had, is their faith. Reality has nothing to do with it.

    Unfortunately for them, they’ve been utterly betrayed by the party that sold them this faith, and is now focused entirely on wars and bailouts rather than on facilitating freedom. But they’ll be loyal McCain voters again this year, and if Obama wins, they’re the ones who will be most likely to see him as the antichrist.

    Phil (3b1633)

  24. “believe in Jesus and someday he’ll make you rich”

    Complete unadulterated BS. I feel a torrent of it coming on …

    JD (c69925)

  25. You have NO IDEA what a communist is.

    On the contrary, dipshit. I spent over twenty years studying them: their methods of overt and covert warfare, including their program of disinformation which is still affecting politics and discourse today.

    You are too stupid to be let out on the streets without a minder.

    EW1(SG) (da07da)

  26. You are too stupid to be let out on the streets without a minder.

    Quote. Of. The. Day.

    JD (c69925)

  27. I have to agree that this is McCain’s best chance right now. Ohio and Pennsylvania are two states that still have lots of people who buy the “believe in Jesus and someday he’ll make you rich” theory. People like Joe the (”really, I am, I’m rich and I’m gonna buy a business”) Plumber. These people are really the staunchest Republicans right now, because all they’ve got, and all they’ve ever had, is their faith. Reality has nothing to do with it.

    Unfortunately for them, they’ve been utterly betrayed by the party that sold them this faith, and is now focused entirely on wars and bailouts rather than on facilitating freedom. But they’ll be loyal McCain voters again this year, and if Obama wins, they’re the ones who will be most likely to see him as the antichrist.

    Comment by Phil — 10/22/2008 @ 5:46 am

    The assholishness of this comment(or) can’t really be adequately described.

    CW Desiato (614aa7)

  28. I think that new Hampshire will also be a red state with Sununu holding on to his senate seat.

    Today their has been a “tweak” to Barry’s tax plan. The fact that his 95% of Americans getting a cut amounts to welfare is sticking. This is tightening and the Dems are worried.

    The RNC should nationalize the House races. This whole thing seems to be turning around.

    Bruce in SoCal (7c0276)

  29. “Reality has nothing to do with it.”

    Phil – From your comments it is easy to tell that you have never made reality’s acquaintance. You need to get out more.

    daleyrocks (d9ec17)

  30. Flashback 2000: Gore Leads Bush 51-40 In October

    I have a very sneaky suspicion that Obama loses a very close election.

    ML (14488c)

  31. I have litle confidence in the polls currently, given past poor performance. Further, I think that the pollsters are overestimating The One’s ability to get his frothy supporters to show up and vote. As a result, I see the race as much closer than the media wants you to believe.

    That said, Obama could win. But if he does not, the bad polling will create a vicious backlash among his fanatical supporters and I would not be surprised to see violence in reaction.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  32. Zell Miller is a raging lunatic.

    Let’s review which raging lunatic said the following:

    None of you can claim to be the responsible, thoughtful republicans. Ninety-five percent of the people that comment on here are raging, babbling, psychotic, homoerotic, clowns. Obama is a terrorist, racist, communist, socialist, white supremecist, catholic, muslim, jew… I think I have read it all on here.

    The raging lunatic that wrote this filth is you, PussnBoots.

    Dmac (f11dda)

  33. Comment by daleyrocks — 10/22/2008 @ 6:48 am

    Phil mingling with the “common people” would be dangerous – for Phil’s health.
    Quite a few of those common people are not as tolerant of asshats as present company.
    Phil needs to stay where it is safe for him – as furniture in Huffington’s drawing room.

    Another Drew (d7f986)

  34. Off topic…but on topic. New England Pats were the anointed ones earlier this year. The polls said so, too. Overwhelmingly. Then Archie’s Jughead and the crew went and pulled off the upset of the year. There went the smug smiles, down goes Brady, down goes Belichick. I see some eerie parallels, smug, cool, overwhelming odds, journalists in the tank.

    Let’s see the list of all that I just offended…Archie and his kid, Brady, Belichick, Boston fans everywhere (yay, Rays), sports writers, oddsmakers the world over, and Cosell as an oblique freebie.

    So Jughead, with Veronica alongside, might be a nice long shot at the window.

    And everyone under 40 goes…WTF is a Jughead and Veronica?

    Emulating the regulars…I promptly denounce myself.

    allan (bdaa19)

  35. Allan, you’re undenounceable.

    Dmac (f11dda)

  36. The media will slant their stories so that the “polls” make it seem like this race is all but over. Statistics can be skewed to paint whatever picture is convenient and the picture that the liberal MSM wants to paint is the one that will get Obama and his leftist illuminati cronies into the White House ASAP.

    Jeff (86606e)

  37. The fact is that Obama got shellacked by Hillary in nearly all parts of PA outside Philly. Same for Ohio.

    The Dem primary in PA was held on April 22. Several polls out on Sunday, April 20, had Hillary winning by anywhere from 5-7. Rasmussen had her up by 5, Survey USA had her up by 6, Quinnipiac had her up 7, Strategic Vision had her up 7, etc.

    She ended up winning by 9.25%.

    Murtha now goes on the record calling Western PA a bunch of redneck racists, and Obama does the old flip-flop on whether he’s rooting for the Phillies or the Rays. You might think Philly sports fans wouldn’t care enough about that to switch their votes — and you’d be wrong.

    Clinton had previously beaten Obama in Ohio, 54-44 — and that was before his Rev. Wright problems appeared.

    Bush lost PA in 2004 by 51.4 to 48.6 — 2.8%. There are a TON of veterans in PA, and Dems have won that state traditionally by carrying Eastern PA around Philly by wide margins.

    But Arlen Specter is much closer to McCain than he ever was to Bush, and Specter is going to turn out his machine in the Philly suburbs.

    McCain winning PA completely changes the electoral map. If McCain wins PA, OH, and FL, he has lots of room for error in other places.

    WLS (26b1e5)

  38. PCD, I hadn’t seen that. But it does not surprise me.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  39. There is a professor on TV right now saying Bill Ayres is a responsible educator.

    The days of Reagan’s idiotic ‘trickle-down’ economic system are over.

    Comment by truthnjustice

    I fear you are correct. I see a situation similar to Japan in the 90s if Obama is elected. Ten years of zero growth.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  40. Ten years of zero growth.

    Double that. Since when has a socialist system been about growth? All it seeks is to keep the host alive as the blood is drawn off and re-distributed. The main difference between socialism and communism from an economic perspective is that 6 paid week vacation thing.

    allan (bdaa19)


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