Patterico's Pontifications

10/8/2008

Because Elections Are A “Zero-Sum” Enterprise, Having A Six Point Lead is a Precarious Place To Be

Filed under: 2008 Election — WLS @ 6:40 pm



Posted by WLS:

Beldar has an interesting take over at Hugh Hewitt’s Townhall blog site on last night’s debate and the secondary headlines that are coming out of the debate analysis coverage.

His point echoes one made yesterday by Jim Geraghty at his Campaign Spot at National Review Online, revealing the return of his super inside source in GOP politics known to his readers only as “Obi Wan Kenobi.”

The upshot of both is that while Obama is certainly ahead and has every advantage over Mccain right now, the fact remains that his lead is much smaller than it should be if he were truly the transformative and undeniable political force that the left wing and MSM have made him out to be for 9 months. The lead he enjoys is fragile, as he has twice bumped up around 50% only to fall back into the mid-40s each time. Voters in that range continue to move towards him and then away from him.

Elections are zero-sum contests. Obama’s current lead of around 6 points in the average of polling reflects an advantage of only 3 voters out of 100. The movement of any one voter away from one candidate towards the other creates a two point shift in the result.

Granted, McCain has never gone above 45% with any consistency but what is the rationale for the McCain campaign? It really comes done to the fact that he is the nominee of one of the major parties. Even with that, the base of his party has never embraced him during his entire career, and the only thing he has done to excite them since he became the presumptive nominee was to name Palin as his VP.

So who has the greater burden?

I think the truth of this election cycle is that McCain can’t “win.” He doesn’t have the agenda or policy prescriptions demanded by the public. The only way he gets sworn in as President is to avoid losing.

Obama, on the other hand, must “win” — he must overcome the reluctance of a narrow slice of the electorate to see him as their President.

As Beldar points out, Obama had Hillary up against the wall and over a barrel (to mix metaphors) in the primary season when he could bank his delegate lead without fear of slippage, yet over the last 3 months of the primary season he lost one big contest after another and simply ran out the clock on her to secure the nomination. In addition to losing those contests, he significantly underperformed his polling in several of those contests.

As someone who as a young man was regularly in the company of his friends while closing down drinking establishments into the early morning hours, Obama reminds me of the guy who always had trouble “closing the deal.” Those voters who exist in Obama’s polling between 45% and 51% are happy to tell pollsters now that they’re willing to dance with him while the lights are on and the music is playing. It remains to be seen whether they are willing to “gather up their things and head for the door with him” after last call.

Geraghty quotes Obi Wan making this interesting comment about the tenuous nature of Obama’s lead:

Fourth — for me this was the the kind of insight that makes him as a Jedi Master — “Media bias may be McCain’s biggest asset in this race. First, [for the past eight years] they built McCain up into the Maverick hero [every time he disagreed with Bush] and that insulates him from the too-close-to-Bush charge. Then they can’t leave Palin alone and she keeps hitting out of the park just as they build her audience up. And now they’ve decided the election is over and given Obama an eight point lead. So if he starts to fade at any point in the next month that seems like a crash and cause a panic.”

“I guarantee you, right now there is some realist in the Obama camp who is petrified of any falloff in the polls.”

If Obama were ahead 20 points and 3 voters in 100 changed their mind between now and election day, Obama would still lead by 14 points and nobody would care. But, since he’s ahead only 6 points — after all that has happened in his favor — if only 3 voters change their mind he’s in a dead heat with a guy who was given up for dead several times already.

34 Responses to “Because Elections Are A “Zero-Sum” Enterprise, Having A Six Point Lead is a Precarious Place To Be”

  1. Not only could Obama not quite close the deal against Hillary in the primaries, he didn’t dare give her a fair shake at the Democratic Convention.

    The roll call was only for a short list of states before Nancy Pelosi said this asked for acclamation. The live feed of that was hilarious. She asked for yeses, and got a sizable Aye. But then she says “Allthoseagainst-wham-motion carries.”

    That just wasn’t serious.

    Al (b624ac)

  2. I wonder how the polling was in the Nixon McGovern race 1 month out. Seems like that would be an analogous situation.

    Patricia (ee5c9d)

  3. I want to buy into this argument, but I’m just not seeing any life from McCain.

    I did expect this “election is over” line from the media, and I’m not convinced the polls are telling us the whole truth, but is the public convinced it’s a done deal.

    We could use one really good October surprise. I was thinking we might see a salvo from the SS Clinton, but perhaps they have packed it in as well.

    the bhead (a31060)

  4. McCain is going against three major tides, 1) the degration of the republican brand from iraq to bush in general, 2) a media that is giving the messiah tremendous good coverage 3) the sudden october suprise of the credit crunch – three factors anyone would have difficulty over coming.

    I do recall my change of mind in the 76 election – my first election as a young 20 year old. For the 4-5 months before the election, I was definitely voting for carter. The last couple of days before the election was the first time i had any doubts, it wasnt until I walked into the precinct building that I finally decide to vote for ford. – I am not sure that enough people will have the same change of heart “in time”.

    The status quo may be bad, but another carter administration will be much worse.

    Joe - Dallas (d7c430)

  5. The Obama people know the Bradley effect is real and is worth about 4 points in the polls. It is not racism that he has to deal with (although I suspect there is some in places like Pennsylvania coal towns), but the unwillingness of people to tell pollsters the truth and be perceived as racist. If he is within 4 points on election day he loses that state. Of course, there is still time for something big to effect the race. So far it has all been bad news for McCain with the financial meltdown. He needs to tie that to the Democrats and he needs to compare Obama to Hoover in his tax and trade policies. He did that once in the debate and I’d like to see more of that.

    As far as Ayres is concerned, the tag for Ayres is not terrorist but a radical on education with Obama as a partner. Every time education comes up, McCain should be talking about the Chicago Annenberg Challenge.

    Mike K (d8deba)

  6. WLS,

    “Obama’s current lead of around 6 points in the average of polling reflects an advantage of only 3 voters out of 100. The movement of any one voter away from one candidate towards the other creates a two point shift in the result.”

    Interested in your reasoning here.

    I studied statistics and polling and have never heard of anything like what you claim.

    Albeit it was over 25 years ago that I studied it.

    Is this some sort of new math or what>

    I think you are wrong and thanks in advance for any explanation.

    jharp (2282bb)

  7. Joe, I was screaming at the TV during the debate when Ford blew the question about Poland. Had he not done that, even with the Nixon pardon, I think he would have won.

    Mike K (d8deba)

  8. Joe, that’s not a bad analogy, when you consider that Ford closed on Carter tremendously during the last few weeks, so much that it was quite close after the final tallies were in. This, despite the Nixonian follies that he was up against, an almost impossible burden – and the fact that Ford was a lot more colorless than McCain. I’ll take those odds.

    Dmac (cc81d9)

  9. I think McCain’s chances are remote. It’s going to require a real gaffe for Obama to lose, in my opinion.

    It’s still important to vote – there are other issues and candidates to vote for – but I don’t see a rescue from this position with this trend line. Barring some sort of Buchanan-esque error, Obama’s going to win.

    –JRM

    JRM (355c21)

  10. Every time education comes up, McCain should be talking about the Chicago Annenberg Challenge.

    There’s even video of Ayers in Venezuela in 2006 touting education as revolution.

    *Sigh.* Doesn’t his campaign read the internet?

    Somebody email them the link, for crying out loud. Ayers in Venezuela

    Patricia (ee5c9d)

  11. This chart shows a large number of US presidential elections are very close.

    Two times in history a republican has won the election while losing the popular vote.
    1876 & 2000.

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781450.html

    ML (14488c)


  12. “…if only 3 voters change their mind he’s in a dead heat with a guy who was given up for dead several times already.”

    Yeah, unless the change-of-mind goes the other way, in which case Obama is ahead by 12%. Look, this is drivel. Obama wins for the same reason rolling a 7 is more probable than rolling a 12: there are more ways to do it. McCain did have one last chance at a game-changer or at least at making it close, and that was to place himself at the head of a popular uprising against the hated bailout for Wall Street criminals. But he’s dumb and he blew it. Now it won’t be close. Game over.

    Quince (722939)

  13. Were McCain willing to take on Baracky, directly, in the debates, I would have a better more optimistic outlook on the election. Until he does so, and he only has one more chance, he is toast.

    JD (f7900a)

  14. “The upshot of both is that while Obama is certainly ahead and has every advantage over Mccain right now, the fact remains that his lead is much smaller than it should be”

    Very funny. His lead is smaller than it should be. What should it be? You’re talking about people who voted for George Bush after he lied us into a war. Don’t you remember the headlines “how could 58,000,000 people be so stupid”. It was a national embarrassment just as it is today that the election is even close. And 25% still think George Bush has done a good job.

    “I think the truth of this election cycle is that McCain can’t “win.” He doesn’t have the agenda or policy prescriptions demanded by the public. The only way he gets sworn in as President is to avoid losing.

    Obama, on the other hand, must “win” — he must overcome the reluctance of a narrow slice of the electorate to see him as their President.”

    Wrong on all counts. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.

    Do the math. And if you’d like I’d be happy to do it for you.

    jharp (2282bb)

  15. “…if only 3 voters change their mind he’s in a dead heat with a guy who was given up for dead several times already.”

    Yeah, unless the change-of-mind goes the other way, in which case Obama is ahead by 12%. Look, this is drivel.

    Comment by Quince — 10/8/2008 @ 7:45 pm

    And here all of this time I thought the samples usually approximated 1,000 voters.

    I think WLS is using the Karl Rove math.

    jharp (2282bb)

  16. Gallup is +11% Obama.

    Just thought you should know.

    Oh and Patricia, don’t know if you got the memo from the McCain campaign, but they “no longer care about Ayers.”

    Go figure.

    Peter (e70d1c)

  17. Hey, wls. You always talk about how Obama may get into trouble for opting out of public funding. And how he is out spending himself. You were so concerned for obama that he was going to run out of money. So, what sayest thou now? Is he in trouble now?

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  18. Patterico, what do you know about the lawsuit filed by an attorney named Berg back east concerning Obama’s citizenship? What, if any laws were in effect that would ban Obama, born of an foreign national and an U.S. citizen out of wedlock in Kenya?

    Zelsdorf Ragshaft III (e18128)

  19. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

    Look at the RCP average form today. It is 5.1 points. For the polls that include only likely voters only it is just under 4 points.

    Mark1971 (888585)

  20. I think McCain may still have a chance at a come back. He just needs to find a platform and stay on it. Just like Hillary, he has run a reactionary campaign. Jumping on every move Obama makes and trying to turn it against him. He built his entire campain on the hope that Obama was going to make a major gaffe. But so far, it hasn’t happened. He should have spent that time crafting his message and theme. Not jumping from “Experience” to “Change” to “Country first”. He forgot that this present Republican regime has no credibility with people. He did not see how that was going to weigh him down. Finally, he took a big risk by picking Palin. While it brought some life into his campaign. It served to be a liability and distraction. His entire “Maverick” label turned to be his greatest undoing.
    But there are still 27 days left. Anything can happen. Or he can just hope that white America has not really gotten over its xenophobia. But that could be another gamble.

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  21. The dynamics of this race do favor this, but until McCain shows up to this fight it aint gonna happen.

    Mac has to go on the attack.

    Joe (8102a5)

  22. Internal polls from my sister the Democrat show its a dead heat

    Watch where Obama actually travels and his major media buys

    nothing is going to happen significantly until 2 weeks before the election

    EricPWJohnson (ca64bf)

  23. McCain has spent too long in the Senate with its fake civility, he doesn’t remember how to take off the gloves. Biden’s problem is he can’t remember what exactly he wanted to say, but he already has his mouth in gear before engaging his brain.

    Soronel Haetir (644722)

  24. Why are newspapers so virulently pro-Obama? Their Democratic staffs know this is their last chance–the last election before virtually all newspapers in America go out of business.

    Official Internet Data Office (b87509)

  25. I am not saying that McCain will win but I think you can gain an insight into his mentality from a certain quote from the debate. McCain criticized Obama for “telegraphing his punches”, which offers a little insight into the way McCain stratigizes. Perhaps he feels that a late blow against Obama would be more sustainable. Who knows, maybe Rezko is gonna give Fitzgerald (Republican who will lose his job if Obama wins)a nugget. You never know.

    Bfidler (e8f3cb)

  26. Lovey — we’ll know more about Obama’s finances next week. When the press reports that he’s outspending McCain 3-1 that is misleading because we know that McCain’s campaign war chest is the combination of his spending and the RNC spending. McCain is limited to $84 million, so Obama with $200+ million is going to outspend him by a mile.

    McCain’s real advantage should have been in Sept. when he had a cash-on-hand advantage of $100+ million. Unfortunately, the credit crunch took over the narrative in mid-Sept., and it didn’t matter what the advertising was about, one issue dominated the news. That turned poll numbers to his advantage in states where McCain was not spending money and still leading, and when McCain was forced to spend money in places like North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, it had to come from somewhere — so the stopped spending in Michigan.

    What I suspect Obama is going to do is send a lot more money than he actually has raised — lots of expenses can get paid on a net-30 or net-60 day basis. He can spend money in October that he doesn’t raise until after the election.

    Otherwise the books don’t balance between when he reported as having cash-on-hand on Sept 1 and the rate of spending — about $3 million a day on advertising alone. That’s $90 million in September alone, and he started the month with only $77 million.

    wls (c1b09d)

  27. The New Yorker has a long (but interesting) piece about the difficulty of convincing some battleground voters to go with Obama. Rove has a column that is similar to WLS’s observations.

    voiceofreason2 (d0e791)

  28. 3 points-

    McCain has to win. Media will not allow Obama to shoot himself in the foot. Even a major gaffe will go unreported.

    Obama only has to win the Electoral college. That means battleground states. This scares me.

    I think all of the polls are inaccurate, even the ones with proper sampling procedures. This is due to; conservative fatigue- it’s not worth the potential argument to be against The One since liberals operate on emotion and not logic, Hispanic racism- Most Hispanics (of Mexican heritage anyway) will not vote for Obama no matter what they tell a pollster.

    BB (14b830)

  29. #28
    Give up that racism talk. America has moved on. We have advanced beyond identity politics. It’s a new day! The choice this year is clear: Change or More of the same. Not color and race.

    love2008 (1b037c)

  30. You’re talking about people who voted for George Bush after he lied us into a war.

    Never happened. Not in the real world, at least.

    Rob Crawford (6c262f)

  31. Comment by love2008 — 10/9/2008 @ 7:45 am

    This commenter obviously does not live in, or interact with, a majority-Hispanic/Mexican community, and listen to the very disparaging remarks they make about others (Blacks/Orientals/Russians/etc.).

    You can wish racism away, that doesn’t make it so.
    Racism/Bigotry exists throughout the world; always has, always will!

    Another Drew (930ac9)

  32. This is my favorite empty-headed bit:

    “..The choice this year is clear: Change or More of the same…”

    Notice that “change” is not defined, other than “not-GW Bush.”

    Pat Buchanan becoming President would be a change, too.

    It reminds me of the SF writer Orson Scott Card’s bit, lampooning a revivalist preacher:

    OSC: Do you believe?

    Crowd: I believe!

    OSC: How dare you answer that question! If someone asks you, “Will you buy?”, don’t you ask what and for how much? And if you are so careful with your pocketbook, why are you so free and easy with what you think?

    So when someone asks you “Do you believe?” why not ask “In what?”

    So getting back to trolls riding unicorns on rainbows…

    What kind of change? And what will it cost? Personally, I don’t think Senator Obama knows. He just wants to ride the unicorn on the rainbow and be worshipped by trolls. The real world of politics outside Chicago is very different. And those adoring crowds will turn soon enough, when Senator Obama cannot provide all the goodies he has promised.

    But it’ll be GW Bush’s fault, for a while.

    The principle of “least bad” may be in play. Change is not always good. At least, when that change isn’t defined…or is claimed, and then shifted around as “political realities” emerge.

    Eric Blair (2708f4)

  33. Granted, McCain has never gone above 45% with any consistency but what is the rationale for the McCain campaign? It really comes done to the fact that he is the nominee of one of the major parties. Even with that, the base of his party has never embraced him during his entire career, and the only thing he has done to excite them since he became the presumptive nominee was to name Palin as his VP.

    If I recall, John Kerry had a similar problem in 2004.

    Michael Ejercito (a757fd)

  34. It isn’t a zero-sum game, the turnout on each side is extremely important. You don’t win if 80% would vote for you but 10% actually do.

    Sam (c71bb1)


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