Patterico's Pontifications

10/1/2008

Today’s Entry For Most Dishonest Analysis of Polling Results

Filed under: General — WLS @ 5:44 pm



Posted by WLS:

The prize today goes to the writers for the Gallup organization who made this notation about the poll numbers put out today on their daily tracking poll:

“The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of registered voters finds Barack Obama at 48%, and John McCain at 44%, marking a slight narrowing of the race from the eight percentage point margin Obama held earlier this week.”

Got that?  A lead that shrinks from 8 points to 4 points in only 2 days — Obama led 50-42 on Monday — reflects only a “slight narrowing” of the race. 

50% reduction  = slight.

Well, put another way, since about 130 million people (I didnt’ say “citizens”) are likely to vote, Gallup’s numbers reflect a shift of about 2.6 million people from Obama’s column into McCain’s column in the last 48 hours.

26 Responses to “Today’s Entry For Most Dishonest Analysis of Polling Results”

  1. Wherein earlier in the week Barack Obama was ahead, an equal number of voters in that lead have now realized that McCain/Palin are the superior candidates and will support them in the forthcoming election.

    Or –

    Despite the public’s confusion over the economic crisis, the facts regarding the Fannie/Freddie fiasco have come to light and literally millions of voters have now switched to McCain/Palin.

    Can you imagine the hissy-fit?

    Apogee (366e8b)

  2. Maybe the staffers moonlight for the LA Times.

    You’re still having server problems. This is the first time I’ve been able to log on since morning.

    Mike K (155601)

  3. The latest CNN/Time polls in five crucial battleground states suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains over rival Sen. John McCain.

    Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

    Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

    Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

    Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

    Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

    How about them apples! Been out for several days and couldn’t be happier to see the great news.

    Oh, and it looks like the messiah has broken the 50% barrier in a few.

    How sweet it is!

    jharp (2282bb)

  4. Shocking the American public has not been completely fooled by those responsible for the meltdown of Freddie and Fannie. Rep. Frank, for instance. A video is available of him stating plainly circa 2005, there is no problem with the operation at Freddie and Fannie. It is also noticed Sen. Dodd is the banking committee chairman in the Senate. For the past two years he has been charged with oversite. What he got was large loans from Countrywide. Wright was right about chickens coming home to roost, just the wrong chickens and the wrong roost.

    Zelsdorf Ragshaft III (e18128)

  5. Yep, jharp. Those numbers are factual. Problem is the only people polled were Democrats. You are just blowing smoke.

    Zelsdorf Ragshaft III (e18128)

  6. More significant re Gallup’s analysis is that their poll moved from well beyond marrgin of error to within margin of error.

    Karl (1b4668)

  7. And another thing that could possibly skew the results: in states with a few major cities and substantial rural areas, oversampling in the cities could also add to the pro-Doolittle bias.

    Because Republicans living in major cities may actually be more moderate or left-of-center, and as a result, inflate Doolittle’s numbers.

    Dr. K (15994c)

  8. Try this one Mr.Zelsdorf Ragshaft III

    Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads GOP rival John McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll. The nine-point spread marks an increase of four percentage points in Obama’s lead from a CBS News/New York Times survey taken last week. Obama also leads by nine points among likely voters, 50 percent to 41 percent.

    jharp (2282bb)

  9. Or take a look at the intrade.com numbers.

    Ain’t looking so good, huh?

    Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 64.0 64.1

    John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 35.2 35.7

    jharp (2282bb)

  10. When the Democrats enact 50% tax increases, the MSM will describe it as only a “slight” tax increase.

    Perfect Sense (9d1b08)

  11. You tube pulls video “burning down the house” over music copyright infringement.

    I think it was more an infringement over ideas.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/09/you_tube_pulls_a_popular_antid.html

    ML (14488c)

  12. If those polls were accurate, jharo, Kerry would be the current president.

    But your gloating is cute. It’s pretty clear you’ll be one of those crying actual tears if Obama loses. Better hope you’re right!

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  13. #3 wrote: Been out for several days and couldn’t be happier to see the great news.

    Its “great news” that a man who wants Doctors to do nothing while babies die is leading an election poll?
    You must have loved Hitler’s “family planning” policies.

    Perfect Sense (9d1b08)

  14. Its “great news” that a man who wants Doctors to do nothing while babies die is leading an election poll?

    Comment by Perfect Sense — 10/1/2008 @ 7:15 pm

    Is that all you’ve got? 100% utter nonsense?

    Guy’s like you deserve to be parted with your money and I’d have no problem watching the GOP take it from you. The problem is the educated half of America gets dragged down with you.

    jharp (2282bb)

  15. Those numbers are factual. Problem is the only people polled were Democrats. You are just blowing smoke.

    This is true.

    However, the poll numbers might be an accurate reflection of what the results will be on
    Election Day.

    Here is a quote from a Usenet article (archived by Google groups).

    “The Democrats nominated an ESPECIALLY bad candidate in Kerry. Even
    Democrats I talked to expressed NO enthusiasm for him. “He isn’t a
    Republican”
    or “He isn’t Bush” isn’t much of an endorsement. I’ve
    NEVER talked to anyone who wasn’t a Democrat activist on usenet who
    actually LIKED Kerry.”

    Change a few words and this could describe the 2008 election pretty accurately.

    Where is the enthusiasm among Republicans for Senator John McCain?

    Michael Ejercito (a757fd)

  16. Most polls have a 95% confidence interval of +/- 3%, meaning +/- an interval of 6% between two candidates (figure for a poll with 1000 respondents). So a 4% move can be reasonably characterized as slight, regardless of how quickly it occurs, or what numbers of voters you multiply it by.

    DWPittelli (7c499f)

  17. Been out for several days and couldn’t be happier to see the great news.

    Possible reasons for that absence:

    – working on an international deal for your conglomerate that distributes Chinese black market dolls;

    – working on your 20 – acre lawn, replete with mansion and Olympic – size swimming pool;

    – counting your ginormous asset values, which of course have only increased over the past few years (despite your claims of the economy being sh-t during that time)

    – waxing your knob.

    Dmac (e639cc)

  18. Dmac, you forgot: Hiding under a pillow to avoid the many lessons on the reality of economics.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  19. Possible reasons for that absence:

    – working on an international deal

    Comment by Dmac — 10/1/2008 @ 7:42 pm

    You got it. Several million dollars worth.

    jharp (2282bb)

  20. #14 wrote: Guy’s like you deserve to be parted with your money and I’d have no problem watching the GOP take it from you.

    Catch up with the news jharp. Its Democrats who want to seize (I mean increase the taxes) American’s assets, not Republicans. Think of all the money Democrats will spend on “Odes to Obama’s Earmarks” for children’s choirs.

    Perfect Sense (9d1b08)

  21. “Catch up with the news jharp. Its Democrats who want to seize American’s assets”

    Complete utter nonsense.

    It is the GOP that HAS seized American’s assets over the past 8 years.

    $5 trillion dollars worth.

    jharp (2282bb)

  22. Libs obviously scared. Rarely do they come out and pot in droves so quickly.

    Bfidler (e6db0a)

  23. post not pot

    Bfidler (e6db0a)

  24. jharp’s conspiracy theories are starting to resemble Cynthia McKinney’s.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  25. Comment by SPQR — 10/1/2008 @ 8:29 pm

    Racist!

    AOracle (ec995e)

  26. By jharp. The problem is the educated half of America gets dragged down with you.

    Way too easy and not worth the time to address. Here’s a concept for you jharp.

    Jay Curtis (8f6541)


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