McCain Needs To Re-Tool His Message Soon — The Current Trajectory Is A Path To Defeat
Posted by WLS:
While the race seems to have stabilized in the 4-6 point range — with about 8-10% undecided — Obama is within 2-3 points of locking down the election. Frankly, I think that continues to reflect a problem that is significant for Obama — with all the wind at his back, he’s still having trouble cracking through 50%. The longer he is stuck in the high 40’s, the more of a possibility it is that late-deciding voters are going to go with the “safer” pick of the candidate they know best.
I rarely agree with Lawrence O’Donnell anymore but he made an insightful and accurate comment last night when he said the 8-10% of the electorate that remains undecided are low-information/low-interest voters. They don’t watch the news and they don’t follow the campaigns.
They’re not undecided this late in the game because they are genuinely torn between the two candidates. They are undecided because they aren’t interested in politics and they aren’t really paying much attention even now. The debates might be the first part of the campaign that gets their attention. They are the kind of voters that have to be called and reminded to go to the polls, and they respond with comments like “The election is today? Well, I need to go vote.”
So, how can McCain break through to these voters with a message that isn’t necessarily resonating even with those voters paying attention? I think the events of the last two weeks dictate a complete change in message for him — one that he’s much more comfortable delivering. He should simply take on the entire political class/establishment in Washington and the K Street Lobby that works both sides of the aisle depending on which party is in power. He needs to call out the current state of politics in Washington as a matter of corruption — without regard to who he offends.
I read somewhere in the last couple days — but didn’t have time to post on it — an entry from a recent poll (maybe the WSJ poll) that said by a margin of something like 50-30%, voters believe it is more important to clean out the corruption in Washington than it is to reverse Bush Administration policies with which they disagree.
In my mind this really punctures the myth that it is Bush Derangement Syndrome that is behind the “Right Track/Wrong Track” number that has revealed itself in poll after poll, and is the real reason behind way the GOP got waxed in 2006 and is poised to be whacked again in 2008 in Congress.
The collapse of the financial system under what was clearly a rigged process of government intervention in lending, coupled with the impression that the bailout bill was simply a way to take Wall Street “Fat Cats” off the hook for their bad decisions, encapsulates this feeling in the electorate. Congress ruins the financial services industry – which they gladly go along with when they are earning big fees on the bad loans they are making — and when it all collapses Congress comes to the taxpayer with the bill to pay for the cleanup.
McCain can’t be skittish about the language he uses. He’s got to abandon the fake collegiality of Senate-speak and call out elected politicians in both parties for their corruption — criminal and otherwise.
He needs to hammer home the point that he has objected for his entire time in both the House and Senate to the system of trading votes on special interest projects for campaign contributions from those special interests.
He needs to point out that every elected official in Washington understands that the best way to avoid a serious challenge to your elected office is to have a fat campaign account, and the quickest way to fatten up that campaign account is to vote favors for groups that can quickly start a flow of money your way.
McCain needs to convert this election to a choice between him and Obama. He must make the case that Obama is a product of and loyal to one of the most corrupt political machines in the United States. McCain needs to run against the system — one that has benefited his own party in the past –while identifying Obama as the quintessential product of the system.
It can’t be a message based on “us v. them” populism — that’s a Democrat message. It has to be a message based on attacking a broken and corrupt system in which McCain’s own party is as much to blame as Obama’s party.
He needs to name names, and when all is said and done understand that he can’t go back to the Senate if he loses. It would be his last act of a gallant warrior on behalf of his country.
Its not desperation, just a calculation that he’s not going to beat “hopey and changey” on the issue of how much a box of cereal costs and why the deductibles on health care plans continue to rise.
But the core of voters’ anger is not that things are more expensive than they were eight years ago. The core of voters’ anger is that Congress is part of the reason why that is so, but Congress is not interested in making life better for the citizen taxpayers.
You’re right that if in fact the election is going to be decided by the uninvolved/uninformed, McCain has to come up with something that resonates with those people.
But you’re assuming that voters who don’t pay attention care or even know about the ‘corruption in Washington’ and thus, your suggestion is the opposite of ‘preaching to the choir’, you’re advocating that McCain preach to the uninterested.
Since these voters aren’t hanging around right and left wing blogs, they’re not pestering their Congressional offices with complaints and requests, they’re probably hanging up on pollsters calling to ask their opinion, and they probably just don’t care that much about the ‘issues’ (if they did, by definition, they’d be more watchful of what was going on) I argue that they’ll decide to vote based on what you elitists would call superficial issues.
Thus, the key to McCain winning? He has to be the candidate these late deciding voters most want over for dinner.
steve sturm (369bc6) — 10/1/2008 @ 11:30 amYou are hoping for behavior that just isn’t in his DNA. This is the same guy, who, viscerally gets the appeal of Sarah Palin, yet directs his staff to “scrub” her into a wooden, generic, unsure, machine.
You are absolutely correct about the necessity of JSM tacking into attack mode, damn the collateral damage. It just ain’t gonna happen.
I would, however, dearly love to watch him make the announcement that he will not return to the Senate, win or lose.
Ed (385e88) — 10/1/2008 @ 11:33 amI have heard that he is unhappy with the staff work on the Palin campaign. He can show it by letting her wing it instead of the defensive crouch they have had her in for three weeks.
I wonder if Biden might get a question on this topic, just as part of the corruption theme. She could do her share by pointing out that an army of lawyers in Alaska has come up with zero. Why weren’t they in Delaware?
Mike K (155601) — 10/1/2008 @ 11:37 amSince McCain started to tip his toe in the water regarding this theme in his convention speech, he might as well go all in – after all, he’s the “gambler” in this election. Go in with all guns blazing, or don’t go in at all.
Dmac (e639cc) — 10/1/2008 @ 11:48 amMcCain needs to hammer the danger of putting this entire government in the hands of the Democrats. You are not electing Barack Obama, you are electing Barney Franks, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid too.
That is the scary part.
And for God’s sake, drop the hammer on Franks and Dodd and Obama for taking money and favors from Fannie and Freddie.
Joe (dcebbd) — 10/1/2008 @ 12:45 pmDrop the hammer on Dodds, Franks and Obama for their graft, contributions and connections to Fannie and Freddie. Jeez Louise.
Joe (dcebbd) — 10/1/2008 @ 12:46 pmInteresting thought … so now that Obama in fact is polling over 50%, is this still the way to go?
AngelSong (3913c6) — 10/1/2008 @ 3:36 pmWLS- I posted this earlier today as an aside on another thread, but here I think it is appropriate.
I heard on Beck’s show earlier today that a lawyer who does research for him has found a class-action lawsuit for “red-lining” filed against CitiBank, in Chicago, in 1994, with one Barack H. Obama as the lawyer submitting the case. Wouldn’t that be nice, documenting he was part of the problem on ground level as a community organizer, documenting his ties to Freddie and Fanny executives, documenting how much he received from lobbyists.
McCain needs to realize some dems and the MSM liked him only to the extent they could use him to undermine a Repub president, they would never want him to be Pres rather than a Dem.
And we know this isn’t political showmanship in some game. This is about the possibility of a president who shouldn’t even have a low level security rating for associating with domestic terrorists.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 10/1/2008 @ 5:33 pmObama is touching on 50% in a couple polls, but Gallup has him falling back today.
And, don’t forget that he always underperformed his polling in tight races with Hillary.
So, I think that polls showing him at 50% are probably more accurately in the 45-47% range. That’s why I think he’s still 2-3% from locking it down.
WLS (26b1e5) — 10/1/2008 @ 5:36 pmAmen, WLS.
Obama attacks, even spuriously, and McCain/Palin mince words so as not to offend anyone.
Everyone like SArah because she spoke out. They both need to do it, or we’re in for a really rough 4 years. Jimmy Carter in Ray-Bans.
Patricia (ee5c9d) — 10/1/2008 @ 7:14 pmMcCain/Palin mince words so as not to offend anyone
The natural outgrowth of that reaching across the aisle mentality. It weakens a candidate while running and makes them appear afraid to commit and make a solid stand.
Another part of the same outgrowth seems to be assuming the best about your opponent and giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Trying to please everyone all the time… hm…that reminds of an old saying.
Dana (973491) — 10/1/2008 @ 7:19 pmThe first question that needs to be asked is:
Where is the Republican enthusiasm for McCain?
The second question that needs to be asked is:
What other endorsement of McCain is there aside from “He’s not a Democrat” or “He’s not Obama”?
Michael Ejercito (a757fd) — 10/1/2008 @ 7:38 pmYes, let’s get back the Gov. Palin who was willing to say that she didn’t care what the Washington crowd thought, if in Washington her priority would be to serve the people who voted to put her there.
McCain needs to follow her lead. If McPalin loses, and we’re still recognizable as a country in 4 years, look for a Jindahl-Palin ticket. On second thought, even if McPalin wins, let’s look for a Jindahl-Palin ticket.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 10/1/2008 @ 8:11 pmPeople need to calm down about the polls. McCain screwed up, trying to lead on an issue where the public didn’t want leadership. He associated himself very strongly with this bailout, and it is hurting him. He can’t change what he’s done, but he should every day say something nice about Obama–he voted for this shitty bill too! The bill is political poison. Remind people that Barry was right there with him, and Barry can have a little bit of the crap splashed on him.
And McCain needs to get back on offense. It’s hard to get through the filter, but the only positive message should be that, when I’m in charge, the money-changers will be thrown out of the temple. The negative message: he’s a fraud–he’s not qualified, he’s lying about his plans, we don’t know anything about him, he’s lying about his past, etc.
Thomas (7c68f8) — 10/1/2008 @ 8:56 pmI’ll second the recommendation that McCain needs to go “all in”, and start carrying the fight to the corrupt pols throughout DC. The country has been pretty well pissed at what goes on in Dc since the days of “The Hammer”.
He has been running against the Establishment ever since he got slimed by the D’s in the Keating Affair – now it’s payback time.
Reaching across the aisle is a Bush-family disease and needs to be avoided at all costs during a campaign, and used very sparingly when governing (all you get for that reach is a bloody stump).
If Gov. Palin doesn’t wipe the floor with Joe Biden, and leave him lying bleeding on the stage, this is over because it means that John McCain doesn’t have the stomach to win.
AOracle (ec995e) — 10/1/2008 @ 10:12 pmConcur
Thomas (b5d255) — 10/2/2008 @ 8:29 amEverything leads back to the money. It’s all there. Put up or shut up, John McCain.
Gary Ogletree (f4c098) — 10/2/2008 @ 9:04 am