Patterico's Pontifications

9/15/2008

Sullivan Has A Comically “Rose-Tinted Glasses” View of a Comment on Polling From The Democrat Leaning Website 538.Com

Filed under: General — WLS @ 7:41 am



[Posted by WLS]

Apparently, Randy Andy’s willingness to lift comments completely out of context knows no boundaries — he even does it when he’s quoting from Dem. leaning websites.  

Here’s a quick blurb he took out of an analysis of the latest polling over at 538.Com:

We may be seeing a natural peaking in McCain’s post-convention numbers:

“Overall, the landscape has not changed very much since the Republican convention – we’re just collecting different evidence about where the bounce might or might not be in different states. Arguably, however, there are a few signs that McCain is beginning to come off his peaks. Between the four national tracking polls, McCain now leads by an average of just 0.25 points, his smallest margin since the convention.”

True, this was in the very last paragraph of the posting by Nate Silver at 538.com.  Below the jump is the “other” news about polling that Silver included but Andy left out:

Two new polls from Minnesota suggest a tight race in the Land o’ Lakes. TheStar Tribune’s poll, which had shown a double-digit lead for Barack Obama in May, now shows a dead heat at 45-45. Although the results of these two polls are not directly comparable, since the Star Tribune has switched over from a registered voter to a likely voter model, it is hard to interpret this as anything other than unambiguously good news for John McCain. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA, which has always posited a tight race in Minnesota, gives Barack Obama a narrow 2-point lead, unchanged from last month.

In both Minnesota and Colorado, recent polling has run slightly ahead of where our model thinks it should be for the party that held their respective convention in the state. Although I’m not necessarily persuaded that there should be some sort of localized bounce from the conventions – these events are staged for the national TV audience, and not for the locals – it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating polls from these states. Minnesota now rates as a fringe swing state, and arguably is more fertile territory for John McCain than Wisconsin.

Over in Iowa, Ann Sezler’s poll for the Des Moines Register has Barack Obama with a comfortable lead of 12 points. Selzer polls have had a pronounced Democratic lean this year, and so the results need to be interpreted in that context (Obama led by 17 points in their poll in February) — if Selzer polled all 50 states, we’d likely wind up with a very blue map. Of course, Selzer polls are also the highest-rated in our database, and nailed the Iowa caucuses this year. In any event, Iowa is a state where both campaigns might consider removing resources from.

Finally, in New Jersey, a Research 2000 poll for the Bergen County Record has Obama ahead by 9 points. The McCain campaign is not really invested in New Jersey, and although other polling has had it tightening some, it is unlikely to be a decisive state.
 

But hey — at least McCain is peaking.

40 Responses to “Sullivan Has A Comically “Rose-Tinted Glasses” View of a Comment on Polling From The Democrat Leaning Website 538.Com”

  1. We’re reaching “critical mass.” MSM’s Lefty bias is so much on display that everyday more and more voters see it for exactly what it is: fundamental dishonesty in service to the Democrat Party’s political agenda.

    Credibility is like youth and beauty, once lost, it can’t be recovered. The print media is on its last legs, and network news isn’t likely to retain many viewers when they can see full well the contempt for their intelligence behind MSM’s deceitful manipulations.

    Ropelight (921f6e)

  2. Eh, it’s Andrew Sullivan, the most prominent Trig Truther out there. What’d you expect, more posts about the “Palin effect” that he was doing after the Dem convention, where he was hinting that Palin was hurting McCain, which is now the most laughable assertion on the planet. Well, second to “Andrew of the Milkyload is a level headed and reasonable person worth reading”.

    RW (2937d1)

  3. Sully sounding a little… clingy.

    Karl (f07e38)

  4. A man hears what he wants to hear
    and disregards the rest.

    Amphipolis (fdbc48)

  5. The larger point on McCain turning blue states to swing states is frequently lost. Obama doesn’t have to spend much money in a safely blue state. If McCain puts a few blue’s into swing territory, Obama has to spend resources he can ill afford to waste at this point in the game.

    WLS has been dead on with his financial assessments. The consequences at this point are truly about to come home.

    BSKB (0ded4f)

  6. Re. Sarah Palin: I cannot but recall what Mary McCarthy said of Lillian Hellman: “Every word is a lie — including ‘and’ and ‘the.’ “

    David Ehrenstein (70d3a5)

  7. There’s an elephant in the living room that no one is talking about: The Bradley Effect.

    Partly that’s because there’s no way to quantify it, almost by definition, and partly because no one knows how strongly it will come into play.

    But there’s no doubt that it’s happening at least some. And I think that’s one of the reasons the Democrats are beginning to panic: if the polls say “dead even” then the reality in a lot of places will be “McCain up by several points”.

    Steven Den Beste (99cfa1)

  8. I’ve been reading about that phenomenon for awhile now, and it’s a legitimate factor that the MSM is loathe to discuss – surprise.

    Dmac (e639cc)

  9. Andrew Sullivan is still on the lies, lies, and damn lies argument which is rather funny given he was one of the most shameful liars out there when the Palin pick was first announced. Andrew had no problem peddling Baby Trig paternity lies as “just asking questions.” Sullivan and the MSM’s overreaction actually helped McCain Palin tremendously. Thanks guys! Perhaps Excitable Andrew should pay attention to what Mickey Kaus is saying.

    Obviously the turn of events is the economy and energy issues. I would encourage McCain-Palin to focus on this and to also engage those advisors on economic issues they intend to rely on (Steve Forbes, Mitt Romney, etc.). It is not like Barack Obama or Plugs Biden are economists. I see Obama has Rick Rubin out there shilling for him. McCain should have his experts out there too.

    Joe (dcebbd)

  10. The funny thing is, I honestly feel that a Michael Steele could get an accurate poll minus any Bradley. Either way, more evidence that The One’s 57 state (Heinz Map!) strategy is another ego driven blunder.

    rhodeymark (6797b5)

  11. A man hears what he wants to hear
    and disregards the rest.

    I love that song… :)

    Scott Jacobs (a1c284)

  12. The so-called “Bradley effect” does not exist. People do not vote differently based on race.

    However, there is a REAL Bradley effect that could hurt Obama. Bill Bradley didn’t lose the gubernatorial race in CA for racial reasons. He lost because he endorsed a draconian gun control measure on the ballot. Obama may very well lose for this reason alone.

    Ken (ee3101)

  13. The so-called “Bradley effect” does not exist. People do not vote differently based on race.

    No, but they answer questions from pollsters differently, out of fear of being thought racist.

    How many people say they would vote for Sen. Obama when they in fact have no intention to do so, regardless as to WHY they won’t vote for him?

    Generally, I think it is very safe to assume a percentage point or two.

    Scott Jacobs (a1c284)

  14. For those who try to go there, Silver’s excellent site is actually fivethirtyeight.com (not 538.com).

    –JRM

    JRM (355c21)

  15. #11 Tom Bradley, not Bill Bradley.

    Perfect Sense (9d1b08)

  16. The sliver of a poll lead McPalin holds is melting melting…melting away like the wicked witch of the East (or is it the west?) It’s gone by the end of the time the debates hit and I’ll bet money on that (based on the RCP cumulative).

    Sorry guys, you didn’t really think Palin was going to make that big a difference did you? She’s simply the lipstick on the dishonorable lying pig that is John McCain. What a sad sad fall from grace.

    Peter (e70d1c)

  17. People do not vote differently based on race.

    Yeah, they do. Look at the primaries that Obama won: in the red states where lots of blacks reside. Hillary won TX, PA, CA, NY and a host of others, Obama carried NC, SC, GA and several other states that he’ll never carry in November. Excepting Iowa, he got his nomination based on winning the states where blacks vote plus the superdelegates. Period.

    RW (2937d1)

  18. Two of my friends do polling for one of the “big” polling companies. They both tell me “undecideds” are huge in comparison to previous elections. Undecided or Bradley effect?????

    Doug (2b8849)

  19. Intrade.com shows McCain leveling out in the last two days, but the exponential average has yet to catch up with the OHLC markers that put him at ~51. Obama’s fallen and leveling at ~47.

    htom (412a17)

  20. Where is mainstream bias when you need it ? This hilarious letter to the editor repeats the old canard we’ve all heard. “I’m a life-long Republican but I blah, blah, blah.” They call all the talk shows and we know the routine. What this guy didn’t count on was the newspaper’s careful identification of him.

    As a Republican and strong McCain supporter in 2000, I was disappointed and saddened in 2004 when McCain permanently traded in his maverick credentials and sold out his principles to support George W. Bush

    BUT !!!

    Tarsa is chairman of the Lebanon County Democratic Committee.

    Boy do I wish for the old days of “Who, What, When, Where, Why.” That letters editor should get a journalism award for sticking to the tried and true ways of old.

    Mike K (6d4fc3)

  21. She’s simply the lipstick on the dishonorable lying pig that is John McCain.

    It must be hard for you to face the end of your dreams, but there you are – and your hateful statement only confirms your sense of desperation. Let’s see, first we have an animal reference, coupled with the always popular claim of lying (w/o any evidence, as usual) – and I see you just put in the latest talking point from the Obama campaign in using the word “dishonorable.”
    Yep, no question about it; you’re in full – blown panic mode. Don’t let the door hit your backside on the way out, Sweetheart.

    Dmac (e639cc)

  22. Sorry guys, you didn’t really think Palin was going to make that big a difference did you? She’s simply the lipstick on the dishonorable lying pig that is John McCain. What a sad sad fall from grace.

    Peter, can you at least not plagierise Barack Obama. Jeez Louise.

    Joe (dcebbd)

  23. Peter — yeah, melting like that “sliver” of a 10 point lead that Obama once had.

    Seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it?

    Admit it — you were always nervous about the fact that Obama never seemed to be able to crack 48%, weren’t you?

    WLS (26b1e5)

  24. The big loser in all of this:

    George Takai’s wedding. Mentioned by Instapundit but not the Daily Dish. The Death of Gay Culture. Indeed! Hey! http://www.pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/archives2/024363.php

    Then again, it did involve science fiction and Star Trek. Why didn’t the Corner focus on it. I am gobsmacked by their bigotry.

    Joe (dcebbd)

  25. It’s the Officer Barbrady effect: Andy sees polling, picks out what he likes, and to everyhting else says “move along, now, nothing to see here!”

    thirtypundit (fca78c)

  26. Someone promise me that they will videotape David E’s reaction to McCain being declared the winner…

    The anguished cries of the pathetic, pointless, marginal and moronic brings me so much joy… :)

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  27. #23 WLS
    Admit it — you were always nervous about the fact that Obama never seemed to be able to crack 48%, weren’t you?

    He hit 50% after the convention. Get the facts straight, kiddo.

    Peter (e70d1c)

  28. The Astroturfing by the Democrats is getting exposed. Ace is on the case .

    Mike K (2cf494)

  29. McCain responds back on lying accusations: http://thepage.time.com/mccain-camp-memo-on-obama-camp-attacks/

    And can someone from the left tell Andrew Sullivan he has no, nada, zero, credibility left when it comes to accusing people of lying. Not with his whoppers. Sullivan has become Paul Krugman of the blogosphere.

    Joe (8102a5)

  30. He hit 50% after the convention.

    Didn’t stay there long now, did he… :)

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  31. “However, there is a REAL Bradley effect that could hurt Obama. Bill Bradley didn’t lose the gubernatorial race in CA for racial reasons. He lost because he endorsed a draconian gun control measure on the ballot. Obama may very well lose for this reason alone.”

    I AGREE.

    Obama is an EXTREMIST on many issues.
    – FOR GAY MARRIAGE (will work to overturn DOMA)
    – FOR TAXPAYER FUNDED ABORTIONS
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/09/obama_and_biden_support_taxpay.asp

    And his minions attacking a Christian hockey Mom will sure PO the flyover families of America.

    The media gets blindsided by this because they dont want voters to care about it. Then Howard Dean and Olbie disdainfully mourn how God, guns, etc, cost them an election.

    You know, lib-tards, its not hard: People wont cote for you if you hate them and everything they believe in. Family values voters and gun owners and Christians and investors and just plain Patriots really have no use for a Democrat party that is controlled by hateful spiteful leftists who despise all of the above.

    Freedoms Truth (cfa2f1)

  32. What a sad sad fall from grace.

    For those who think bashing honorable people like John McCain and Sarah Palin … yes, it is.

    Obama could have uplifted the campaign this year and taken his chances for winning or losing honorably, or he could lose as an ugly hateful turd channelling the pent-up bile of the BDS left.

    Obama chose the latter. How sad.
    He’s at the Dukakis in a tank stage:
    http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/09/obamas-dukakis-in-tank-moment.html

    Freedoms Truth (cfa2f1)

  33. Sullivan Lies, Hope Dies

    http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/30641

    While Senator McCain has never requested a single earmark, Senator Obama has requested nearly a billion dollars worth during his short time in office. Though Senator Biden has been in the Senate for 36 years, he has only disclosed his earmarks for one year.

    Senator Obama has also attacked Governor Palin over the “Bridge to Nowhere,” despite the fact that he actually voted for the bridge, and his own party in Alaska credited her for ending the project.

    Kindergarten Sex Ed: The fact is that this legislation stated expressly that children in grades kindergarten through 12 were to be taught about sexually transmitted diseases. If Senator Obama believes that it is not appropriate to teach kindergarteners about sexually transmitted diseases, he should have joined with the minority who voted against the bill. Instead, he supported it.

    http://thepage.time.com/mccain-camp-memo-on-obama-camp-attacks/

    Joe (8102a5)

  34. They wouldn’t have gotten caught if he was still organizing things…

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  35. Why do we even acknowledge that tis man exists?

    lweber (d671ab)

  36. I’m melting…I’m melting…..said, the wicked witch.

    McCain loses another .3 and lead diminishes to 1.3 %.

    Peter (e70d1c)

  37. 1.0 %

    Peter (e70d1c)

  38. Oops..my bad. It’s actually tie now at 45.7%.

    That lead is shrinking even faster than I thought it would.

    Source: RCP

    Peter (e70d1c)


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