Patterico's Pontifications

9/12/2008

NY Times Blog: Ignore Post-Convention Polling

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 3:00 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

In a recent post entitled Bouncing the Bounce, the New York Times’ Political Blog The Caucus declares it’s time to “take a deep breath” because we are “saturated with public opinion polls.” It’s far better to ignore all those “fluid” post-convention polls and wait a while to evaluate how people feel about the candidates. In other words, The Caucus thinks we should ignore current polling:

“The opinions may change and change again, with the passage of time. Or they may not. But what the polls that will be taken in the weeks ahead will be helpful in telling us, which the current polls do not, is what kind of real, meaningful and sustained impact the conventions have had on this election, if any at all.”

That’s interesting, especially since The Caucus willingly reported a CBS poll that showed Obama led McCain by 6 points following Obama’s European tour.

Anyone want to speculate what makes a post-convention bounce meaningless while a European tour bounce [or non-bounce] is so worthwhile?

— DRJ

16 Responses to “NY Times Blog: Ignore Post-Convention Polling”

  1. Anyone want to speculate what makes a post-convention bounce meaningless while a European tour bounce is so worthwhile?

    What “bounce?”

    The blog said the CBS/NYT poll showed the Obama tour induced zero change:

    The poll found 45 percent of voters supporting Mr. Obama and 39 percent backing Mr. McCain, unchanged from the New York Times/CBS News poll conducted last month.

    steve (509564)

  2. Wow, DRJ, I’m going to have to think for awhile … hmmm ….

    SPQR (26be8b)

  3. “Anyone want to speculate what makes a post-convention bounce meaningless while a European tour bounce is so worthwhile?”

    Ummm, because of Teh Narrative™?

    N. O'Brain (9056e2)

  4. DJR, I like your zinger at the end, and no, I’m not going to speculate on why one poll is important and others are not. I don’t have to speculate–I know.

    Fritz (452a8e)

  5. Anyone want to speculate what makes a post-convention bounce meaningless while a European tour bounce is so worthwhile?

    Because the Euros are better than we are?

    Patricia (ee5c9d)

  6. Thanks Steve. I’ll change it to include a European Tour non-bounce.

    DRJ (7568a2)

  7. No newspaper blog is going to neglect the poll its own organization underwrites. Their 8/6 update noted post-tour numbers were unchanged. Dalia Sussman’s essay of post-convention polling caveats should be critiqued independently.

    steve (509564)

  8. The only polls that count in the NYT’s M.O. are those conducted purely via cellphones. Yeah, that’s the ticket!

    Dmac (e639cc)

  9. Well, everyone knows the only poll that counts is the one on November 4th. But it’s funny how The Times used to tout polls when Obama was leading them.

    Steverino (1dda08)

  10. But it’s funny how The Times used to tout polls when Obama was leading them.

    “Tout” the poll? It was a freakin’ press release.

    Obama’s overseas trip last month did not enhance U.S. voter perceptions of his effectiveness as a commander in chief, CBS News said.

    steve (199b01)

  11. “Well, everyone knows the only poll that counts is the one on November 4th. But it’s funny how The Times used to tout polls when Obama was leading them.

    Comment by Steverino — 9/12/2008 @ 8:34 pm”

    No, no, Steve-o, you’ve forgotten “teh narrative!” The only poll that counts is the one in the Supreme Court sometime in December!

    Dan S (ca8a95)

  12. Bounce is what donkeys do after Nov 4th

    EricPWJohnson (c00a5d)

  13. “Anyone want to speculate what makes a post-convention bounce meaningless while a European tour bounce [or non-bounce] is so worthwhile?”

    Too Funny

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/110554/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leading-McCain-Points.aspx

    No new posts regarding polls?

    15 minutes up S.P.?

    Oiram (983921)

  14. Wow, I really have to dig to come up with a poll post. I want to stay on topic you know.

    Anyone checked the polls lately?

    How’s McCain’s bounce doing?

    Is it the Economy? Or are Americans finally waking up to the Palin hangover?

    Oiram (983921)

  15. I think the polls will very volatile for the next several weeks because of the financial crisis and the debates. I doubt either side will be able to point to a trend because of the volatility. A bad debate performance would, of course, make a huge difference.

    Mike K (6d4fc3)

  16. Oiram,

    The point of the post (and I know, because I wrote it) was that the New York Times only finds polls important when they show Obama leading. Apparently you agree.

    DRJ (8b9d41)


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