Patterico's Pontifications

9/7/2008

Remember that Obama 50-State Strategy (57?) — NYT Says You Can Forget About All That

Filed under: General — WLS @ 12:18 am



[Posted by WLS]

From Sunday’s NYT:

Mr. Obama’s campaign … is banking on holding all the states Senator John Kerry won in 2004 and picking up the additional electoral votes it needs by flipping some combination of Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio or Virginia into the Democratic column.

The article notes that he has pulled back his advertising in Georgia, and he previously went off the air in North Carolina, Alaska, Montana, and South Dakota — all states that the Dems claimed they were going to compete in.

The fact is that just because some of those states have elected conservative Dems in statewide races does not mean they would favor a ultra-liberal Dem for President. The time and money the Obama campaign spent in those states is WASTED. It’s an electoral vote, not a popular vote.

This also is consistent with money worries.

— WLS

36 Responses to “Remember that Obama 50-State Strategy (57?) — NYT Says You Can Forget About All That”

  1. Interesting that Florida isn’t on that list.

    Icy Truth (aea3ff)

  2. The article mentions that the campaign in some instances is transferring money to state committees for them to spend on GOTV efforts. They claim there were 600,000 registered African-American voters in Fla who did not vote in 2004, and their goal is to turn Fla just with increased turnout alone.

    WLS (969303)

  3. That’s a heckuva gamble to take in one of the three states (Ohio and Michigan being the other two) that will most likely decide the election.

    Icy Truth (9cedd0)

  4. What are the most likely states for McCain to flip his way? PA? (Joe Biden’s from Scranton, you know.)

    Michigan? (Kwame Brown scandal)

    WI? NJ? NH?

    MartyH (52fae7)

  5. This does not include resources to defend their turf. It seems Michigan and Minnesota will be in play and I’d bet anything the Dems did not count on this.

    What will be very interesting is to see how the DNC chooses to utilize its resources. Do they throw money at certain congressional races at the expense of BHO’s needs? I say yes.

    Ed (f35a20)

  6. MartyH —

    I say New Hampshire, which is no big deal except that it would counter an Obama win in New Mexico.

    Icy Truth (9cedd0)

  7. Let Obama win Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. McCain will trade those four states for Mchigan and New Hampshire, and he will still win.

    Icy Truth (9cedd0)

  8. “Michigan”. Gad! Time to stop huffing paint.

    Icy Truth (9cedd0)

  9. He hasn’t totally given up on NC. I have been seeing many Barry commercials here in Raleigh over the past couple days, including the one about McCain being against abortion on demand.

    William Teach (5d9f94)

  10. So Obama is thinking of Indiana or New Mexico, which Bush won? Hey genius, it might have been a good idea to choose Richardson or Bayh, and not loser Biden. Looks like your first real important decision was a loser.

    Check out http://www.270towin.com to change states and see how the total goes.

    I think Sarah, will keep New Mex and Colorado, especially since Obama didn’t pick Richardson.

    Using 2004 as the Blue/Red template I think Obama already has Iowa locked. My worry is he’ll pick up Virginia too. If Obama picks up only those McCain HAS TO WIN NH.

    Scary scenario? Start at 2004, but change just Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, New Hampshire from blue to red. The result is an electoral tie 269 a piece.

    liontooth (0edfdb)

  11. Every time I see a Baracky ad here in suburban Indianapolis, I chuckle. I wish Baracky and hodean would keep working on the 50 state strategy.

    JD (5f0e11)

  12. For a candidate who has issues with his base (hillary voters)the idea of spending money in states like georgia was way on out there from the get go.

    james conrad (6bb6e6)

  13. The Messiah is pulling out of some states to compete in battleground states…I wonder how the “guns and bible” crowds will receive him and Joe when he stops in their towns?

    Guess that he’s getting a lesson in “Chicago politics don’t work on the National Level”, isn’t he…and I wonder if there will be any more revelations about Barry and his “associates”?

    fmfnavydoc (ba43d6)

  14. The time and money the Obama campaign spent in those states is WASTED.

    Senator Obama says his big “executive experience” is running for president and managing his campaign.

    So it’s important to point out that he has badly mishandled the financial side of his campaign. He’s gotten tons of money, yes–but he’s also blown it with arrogant, profligate spending.

    If he had taken public financing, he would have as much money as Senator McCain. But he broke that promise–that’s why he’s so desperate for cash now.

    Who is a big enough chump to give him any more money at this point?

    Daryl Herbert (4ecd4c)

  15. WLS, WLS you keep on playing the same ole song on that trusty violin of yours.

    Here’s what no one is talking about that is going to win this race for Obama and McCain has yet to address in any viable manner and the Palin pick doesn’t impact at all, and I’ll let you righty guys in on it…

    On second thought, nevermind, it’ll be more fun to watch the reactions when the Repubs realize the McCain campaign people put their bets in the wrong place and their horse was dead a long long long time ago.

    How quickly we forget that Obama beat Hillary (HILLARY CLINTON. Please consider this for a second.) by running a brilliant campaign, now even more energized than ever, because if there was a danger of anything being taken for granted before that danger is now gone thanks to the polarizing effect of McPalin.

    I’ll give you a hint:

    Nah, I won’t. Time to hold the cards close.

    You guys have no idea what’s coming…

    Peter (e70d1c)

  16. Pretty much had this called on June 25th, when Obama had his biggest lead of the year.

    Karl (1b4668)

  17. MartyH — 9/7/2008 @ 12:54 am

    Seems to me NH and WI are the two most likely to be able to flip.

    Bush won NH(4) in 2000 (7000 votes) and lost it in 2004 (9000). Obama not being from the NE might have significance in discounting Kerry’s win there. RCP shows in very tight.

    WI(11) went Blue both in 2000 and 2004. In 2000 Bush lost by 4500 votes out of 2.5M. In 2004 the loss was by 9k out of almost 3M. RCP doesn’t have much current, and Obama has been in the + there for all periods; currently early August it was +5. This might be harder because it is Obama’s neck of the woods.

    I don’t know about MI(18) or PA(23) as being in play — it’s often close but they seem to be stable in the numbers and R’s can only make it very tight but never enough. Could that change by enough? If I were McCain I’d do enough to keep it tight and if numbers elsewhere look very reliable sometime in maybe take a shot at one or both.

    Minnesota (10) might be another, but again it might be preferable to take a shot at Oregon (7), which Bush lost twice but by much slimmer margins vis-a-via % and totals and it is more Palin’s backyard. Both, however, are Obama +5 to +7 though the numbers are older.

    If McCain took OR, NH and WI, Obama would need to make up 22, if he flipped any from 2004.

    Dusty (545d04)

  18. Indiana??? Indiana hasn’t gone for a democrat since LBJ and is regularly the first state to be called for the GOP by the networks. Choosing Evan Bayh as VP might have put Indiana in play, but no way now.

    Kometfan (30d377)

  19. ‘ “…and I wonder if there will be any more revelations about Barry and his “associates”?’

    While I wouldn’t say count on it at this point, I earlier linked to a source detailing the prosecution’s request for a delay in the Rezko sentencing – it’s now going to happen in the last week of October. Local political observers have speculated that the only reason for Fitz to do that type of action is in advance of a major plea deal. The deal could possibly involve revelations on one or all of the following players: Governor Blogeivich, Mayor Daley – and The Messiah. Fitz already put the former GOP governor away (George Ryan), and he’s going after more big – game in this prosection.

    Dmac (e639cc)

  20. I think MI is in play, in a big way. WI and PA too. Team O are sweating hope, and change right now.

    Chris (6b9f67)

  21. Tiny Peter wrote (in #15): Here’s what no one is talking about that is going to win this race for Obama . . . and the Palin pick doesn’t impact at all

    Later in the same post, writing on the same topic (or in this case non-topic), Little Sausage wrote: if there was a danger of anything being taken for granted before that danger is now gone thanks to the polarizing effect of McPalin.

    So, in regards to this thing that you think you know, Palin either has ‘no impact at all’ or has a “polarizing effect” (read: negative impact). Well, which is it, Microscopic Meat? Given your total inconsistency, it’s doubtful that you actually no anything . . . although, ironically, in truth we have no doubt.

    Icy Truth (74e75e)

  22. Petey may be delusional, thinking in reality that he’s Mulder – the truth is out there!

    Dmac (e639cc)

  23. Actually, Obama could run a 57 state strategy if those states were the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.

    Bob K (573e6b)

  24. # 22 Creaky Roof:

    Palin either has ‘no impact at all’ or has a “polarizing effect” (read: negative impact).

    Both baby, both.

    McPalin and the RNC is one sick clusterf*ck of a lumbering treasure trove of DSM IV dysfunction and pathology.

    Olé !!

    *Evil Laugh*

    Peter (e70d1c)

  25. I am suprised too that Florida is not on the list. I think he has a chance in Florida. We are tired of Republican politics. And the Palin – what a disgusting fiqure – an embarrasement

    Darrell Burks (4d202a)

  26. Darrell, I don’t know anyone in Florida who would be “disgusted” by a woman running for office. But if that disgusts you, then we’ll take your word for it that uppity women bother you.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  27. [Darrell Burks — 9/7/2008 @ 7:58 pm]

    You think he has a chance? Do you bother with following the polling in your state?

    You sound like the typical cocooned ‘Mark Shields’ lefty who says “I don’t know of anyone who says they would vote for McCain.

    Dusty (545d04)

  28. Obama doesn’t need all those battleground states, he has all 7 of the extras in his pocket!

    Teflon Dad (b9958c)

  29. I’ll give you a hint:

    Nah, I won’t. Time to hold the cards close.

    You guys have no idea what’s coming…

    I love the smell of stonewalling. It smells like…victory. Be sure to let us know when the next insane DKos smear about Palin’s pregnancy crops up. After all, we “have no idea what’s coming up.”

    Sean M. (cd8a9b)

  30. McCain and Palin’s secret weapon: Russell Brand on the MTV Video Music Awards.

    Oh yeah, we Americans really like it when a sex-addicted Limey with worse hair than Amy Winehouse insults a whole host of Americans while, at the same time, telling us all to vote for The Anointed One:

    http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/music/article4703539.ece

    I’ll bet David Axelrod is right now muttering into his coffee cup, “With friends like these….”

    MarkJ (7fa185)

  31. Sarah Palin’s accent means she should campaign in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Bring her husband – both states are full of snow machine/mobile enthusiasts.

    Cleanthes (878214)

  32. I think he has a chance in Florida. We are tired of Republican politics.

    Which of course is why we elected Charlie Crist, right?

    PA (5f7608)

  33. I’m kinda surprised he hasn’t pulled out of Delaware yet. It has as many electoral votes as Alaska, so its not really that important. And with Biden there, after the VP debates, he is sure to lose that too.

    Cromagnum (a62957)

  34. Along with his historic fund raising, Obama has set all records for spending, including millions in places he never had a serious chance to win (outside a national landslide, in which case he needn’t have worried). With declining poll numbers, it becomes more difficult to maintain the needed level of donations, so it only makes sense he kill off the efforts in most red states.

    Due to the cash on hand for both campaigns and parties, McCain is likely to have near equity in available money for the final push. If Obama wants to keep the money edge, he must divert many days from campaigning to raising funds. Can he avoid attending the gala fundraiser in Switzerland hosted by Clooney and the Hollywood elite?

    It all seems insignificant at this point. At the rate Obama is melting down right now, there won’t be anything left to elect.

    Adjoran (0ccad5)

  35. Do you know what kind of media shitstorm he will face if he travels overseas to raise funds? And that’ll be just for the fact that he did it, and the question of why he can’t raise enough money here.

    And THEN there will be the question of legality as to where the funds are coming from. And even if that’s all on the up-and-up … he’s not going, not with only 56 days left he’s not.

    Icy Truth (1af1be)


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