Patterico's Pontifications

9/3/2008

Looks Like We’re Back — Just In Time For The Daily Poll Post

Filed under: General — WLS @ 6:49 pm



Posted by WLS:

Obama named Biden as his VP pick on Sat., 8/23.

The first day that polling would have picked up on the electorate’s reaction would have been 8/24. The Dem Convention ran from 8/25 to 8/28. So, if you pick up the rolling averages at Gallup and Rasmussen, starting with the three day period ending 8/23 – before Biden was picked – and then going through until today, you will have a pretty good read on the “bounce” that Obama got from the Convention festivities. After today we will begin seeing some impact of the GOP Convention.

Polling after jump

Gallup (Obama listed first)

21st – 23rd: 45 – 45    E (last 3 days of polling before Biden announced)
22nd- 24th: 45 – 45    E (Biden announced)
23rd – 25th: 46 – 44    +2 (first day after Biden announcement included)
24th – 26th: 45 – 44    +1 (first 2 days of Biden, and Day 1 of convention)
25th – 27th: 48 – 42    +6 (first 2 days of DNC)
26th – 28th: 49 – 41    +8 (first 3 days of DNC, but not Obama’s speech)
27th – 29th: 49 – 41    +8 (final 3 days of DNC)
28th – 30th: 48 – 42    +6
29th – 31st: 49 – 43    +7 (first 3 days after Obama’s speech)
30th – 1st : 50 – 42     +8
31st – 2nd : 49 – 43     +6

 The Gallup poll of registered voters had Obama entering the VP/Convention cycle pretty much tied, with 10% undecided or going with a third party candidate. During the heart of the convention he bumped up to an 8 point lead, which reflected a 4 point gain by him and a 4 point loss by McCain – with 10% still undecided.

Since the end of the convention, his lead has shrunk slightly, going +6 to +7 to +8 to +6. This fluctuation might just be static since these are very small changes, but Obama has basically remained the same at 49-50%, while McCain has increased from 41 to 43. So, all things considered, it looks like Obama got a 6-7 point bounce out of his selection and the Convention, with McCain losing 2 points from 45 to 43, and Obama gaining 4-5 points.

But since this is generally a “zero sum” game – meaning a point lost by Obama is a point gained by McCain – a 1% change by those polled shows up as a 2% gain. So we are really talking about 3 voters out of 50 for Obama being his margin.

Rasmussen:

21st – 23rd: 46 – 43    +3   (last 3 days of polling before Biden announced)
22nd – 24th: 46 – 42   +4   (Biden announced)
23rd – 25th: 44 – 44    E     (first day after Biden announcement included)
24th – 26th: 44 – 44    E     (first 2 days of Biden, and Day 1 of convention)
25th – 27th: 45 – 44    +1   (first 2 days of Dem Convention)
26th – 28th: 46 – 43    +3    (first 3 days of DNC, but not Obama’s speech)
27th – 29th: 47 – 43    +4    (final 3 days of Dem Convention)
28th – 30th: 47 – 44    +3
29th – 31st: 47 – 44    +3    (first 3 days after Obama’s speech)
30th – 1st : 48 – 43     +5
31st – 2nd : 48 – 43    +5

The Rasmussen poll of likely voters actually showed a negative reaction to Biden – a loss of 3-4 points, with McCain going up 1-2 and Obama going down 2. That’s probably Hillary women voters reacting negatively to Hillary not being selected. After 3 days of the convention he had regained those points, and now final polling before the Palin and McCain speeches, he’s up to +5. That looks like a 4-5 point bounce, with all of it being undecideds moving towards Obama since McCain has held steady at 43-44 all through the Dem convention. But Rasmussen basically tracks with Gallup in showing 10% undecided or going with 3rd party candidates.

I’m a little skeptical of the numbers from Sunday and Monday since those were part of the end of summer 3 day weekend, and polling is difficult on holiday weekends. I think numbers from today, tomorrow, and Friday will be the best indicator of where each camp starts from for the fall campaign. Those numbers will be out on Saturday morning.

2 Responses to “Looks Like We’re Back — Just In Time For The Daily Poll Post”

  1. Well, I guess I was wrong about his bounce!

    Let’s see what happens after Sarah’s speech.

    Patricia (ee5c9d)

  2. I think it will take a week or so for this to settle down. The base loves her, people that don’t follow this are still evaluating her.

    10-14 days ago Mccain was down by a few points in Colorado and New Mexico. I’m looking to see what the bounce is there. They have to at least win CO in November.

    liontooth (0edfdb)


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