Daily Polling Update
Posted by WLS:
A few new numbers out today, as well as the results of polls released over the last week.
Polling of Registered Voters:
Gallup 3 Day Tracking — 2691 RV: Obama +2 (46-44)
AP Ipsos — 833 RV: Obama +6 (48-42)
CNN — 941 RV: Obama +7 (51-44)
Pew Res. — 1241 RV: Obama +5 (47-42)
Polling of Likely Voters:
Rasmussen 3 Day Tracking — 3000 LV: Obama +1 (47-46)
Zogby — 1011 LV: McCain +1 (42-41)
USA Today/Gallup – 791 LV: McCain +4 (49-45)
Registered voters who admit a history of not voting, or who say they are not paying close attention to the race, generally get screened out when the pollster looks for likely voters.
Obama’s advantage among RV diminishes greatly when only LV are considered. This is pretty normal based on historical results that show GOP candidates poll better among likely voters than registered voters.
Obama’s only chance to reverse this historical trend is if he can really drive turnout among that group of registered voters who don’t normally follow through and vote on election day.
If he does, he will win. If not, historical trends will prevail and McCain will win.
True. The best he can manage is “within the margin of error”, and that isn’t going to make the grade.
Comment by Drumwaster — 8/6/2008 @ 10:38 am
While this is very interesting, and shows that Mccain has a lot of strength in a year where the GOP really shouldn’t (And it seems like the GOP picked a strong horse). But there’s more to it than these polls imply.
Mccain is having to fight hard to get several swing states that went to Bush and are now leaning towards Obama. That means his campaign spending, and the results in the polls, are much more restrictive, and a lot less optimistic than Obama’s spending needs.
Mccain has very few new battleground states that the Dems won in 2004, but Obama is leading in a lot of Bush 2004 states. Or, in other words, a lot of Mccain’s likely voter lead is wasted in states he’s going to win anyway with a much lower lead, and Obama’s support is spread around the swing states a lot better.
I will be surprised if Mccain wins. But the debates may turn things radically, and will probably have a huge decicive impact (which is why Obama’s so scared of debates). But by today’s numbers, Mccain would lose in the electoral college while winning “Gore-Style”.
Comment by Juan — 8/6/2008 @ 10:46 am
I wonder if there is a way to accurately poll for the ‘Bradley Effect?’ That may be our real hope in November.
Comment by ManlyDad — 8/6/2008 @ 10:49 am
George Clooney plans to lure his big bucks friends to a meet-and-touch with the Chosen One in, of all places, Switzerland. God help the voters. Arrogance.
Juan, I hope you’re wrong on your November pick.
Comment by Vermont Neighbor — 8/6/2008 @ 10:58 am
The debates. The Debates. THE DEBATES !
That will determine the election unless some disaster happens, like McCain melanoma recurring.
Comment by Mike K — 8/6/2008 @ 11:03 am
The likely voter thing ignores the fact that African-Americans often have light turnouts, but will ALL vote this time. The pressure to get out and vote, at least once, for Obama will be overwhelming in the black community. (This may be a problem as McCain may have trouble getting poll watchers into those precincts.)
So, expect ridiculous turnouts in Obama’s core supporters.
Comment by Kevin Murphy — 8/6/2008 @ 11:13 am
The debates. The Debates. THE DEBATES !
That will determine the election unless some disaster happens, like McCain melanoma recurring.
Comment by Mike K — 8/6/2008 @ 11:03 am
I agree, the debates will have a big impact. Remember what a dorky donkey Gore made of himself during all three? Loved Ann Coulter’s description of the Three Gores during those debates. LOL
Comment by no one you know — 8/6/2008 @ 11:20 am
The likely voter thing ignores the fact that African-Americans often have light turnouts, but will ALL vote this time.
I think that hasn’t been true in recent elections. In 2000 I think black turnout exceeded white.
Comment by Gerald A — 8/6/2008 @ 11:22 am
no one you know – Bringing up Mann Coulter shows the depth of your racism.
Comment by JD — 8/6/2008 @ 11:27 am
Is the “black vote” such that there are areas that will now be in play? Or, are blue areas just going to get bluer?
Comment by JD — 8/6/2008 @ 11:28 am
Comment by JD — 8/6/2008 @ 11:27 am
What does Manfred Mann have to do with this? Oh yes, I remember now…All Hail Obama!
Leave Ann alone !!eleventy!! [Aside from several over the top jokes from her which were not kewl, I do like her. Sue me]
Comment by no one you know — 8/6/2008 @ 11:34 am
She makes me laugh from time to time, but her tone is so strident and she is so over the top that she has become a caricature of herself.
Comment by JD — 8/6/2008 @ 11:36 am
She makes me laugh from time to time, but her tone is so strident and she is so over the top that she has become a caricature of herself.
Comment by JD — 8/6/2008 @ 11:36 am
I can see how her increasing delight in skewering Dems so well (well, most of the time anyway) can look like that even to the most committed of conservatives. I do think she’s funny though. First exposure to her was in a bookstore when I ran across a copy of Slander.
It was so funny I was laughing out loud in the bookstore (rare for me), repeatedly, to my huge embarrassment. After the 5th or so time despite my usual cheap practice of waiting for paperback or library copy I just bought the hardback so I could laugh at home. Still my favorite book of hers, though I like them all.
Comment by no one you know — 8/6/2008 @ 11:42 am
She makes me laugh too, but generally more in the “I cannot believe she just said that” kind of way. I went and saw her give a talk here locally some time ago (I go see all sorts, the moonbat twatwaffles are a blast) and then shook hands with her afterwards. She needs to eat a sandwish or 10.
Comment by JD — 8/6/2008 @ 11:53 am
#9…
Good question, and I think the answer is not one that is encouraging to the Obama camp.
For the most part, Black votes are concentrated in states that already fall into the Blue column (large Urban areas on the Coasts’and in the industrial NE and MW).
Net effect: New England/Mid-Atlantic, & the Mid-West stay Blue (with exceptions for the usual suspects, of course).
In the South, any increased Black turn-out has the likely prospect of driving an increased White (dare I say “Red Neck”) turn-out that will nullify any increased vote for “The One”.
Net effect there: The South stays Red!
Also, most of the polling at this point-in-time is only useful for spotting trends. The great majority of the electorate is not going to “tune-in” until the Conventions. Following the close of the GOP meet in Minneapolis, the polls will start to take on some earnestness, and the internals will be dissected with a very fine scalpel. That is when the pro’s will start earning their money in devining tea-leaves/chicken-bones/cloud-formations.
The Fall will be an interesting time – both domestic, and foreign (unfortunately).
Comment by Another Drew — 8/6/2008 @ 12:00 pm
She makes me laugh too, but generally more in the “I cannot believe she just said that” kind of way.
I think that’s an element for everyone else too. Whatever her faults, she does have guts. She says in the preface of one of her books that she was always grateful to her editors for calling her and begging her not to use a certain line in a column, because that’s how she knew which line would be the most popular with conservatives and upset liberals the most.
I agree she’s gotten more “Ann-ish” as she goes on and if she makes one more joke about widows I may just cross her off my funny list. Still, a sandwich or 10 would do her good in the meantime.
Comment by no one you know — 8/6/2008 @ 12:03 pm
Drew #14 – you are correct for he most part. However, Philadelphia and Cleveland may well decide things in BHO’s favor. Columbus, OH is another big problem for McCain.
I don’t know how much money poll watching costs, but if I were McCain, I would put a ton of resources into this. I would also have federal judges primed to hear emergency petitions, especially in Cuyahoga County.
Oh…I forgot to include St. Louis, MO.
I have seen nothing of this issue (voter fraud) in the MSM nor the conservative media. I get how the Dems will hit back HARD at any hint of such a racist enterprise as to call special attention to historically A-A communities. Too damn bad, I say. Each area I identified has a long and inglorious history of such.
Y’all, attention must be paid.
Comment by Ed — 8/6/2008 @ 2:03 pm
Comment by Vermont Neighbor — 8/6/2008 @ 2:21 pm
McCain will win. Unless there is a floor fight at the convention Obama will get a bump from all of the sycophantic adulation. But then the debates . . . the debates.
Comment by Icy Truth — 8/6/2008 @ 7:46 pm