Patterico's Pontifications

8/4/2008

Checking In On The Daily Tracking Polls: McLovin McCain +1

Filed under: General — WLS @ 10:25 am



[Posted By WLS]

Yep — just a little more than a week after Obama’s European Coronation tour had him briefly at +9 in the Gallup tracking poll — he’s +3 today  – but Obama is now -1 in the Rassmusen poll.

Frankly, it doesn’t represent too much of a change in the last 4 days, but what it does show is general  ineffectiveness of Obama’s counter-attack against McCain’s two ads mocking him.

One could say that the fact that Obama has bounced back a little in the Gallup poll shows that McCain’s two ads, and the blowback against them, have hurt McCain.  That might be true to some extent, but consider the fact that Obama got nothing by laudatory coverage for his foreign tour, which ran his numbers up, only to watch the increase disappear as soon as the GOP took aim at him upon his return.

McCain, on the other hand, has been pilloried by the press for 5 days over the Hilton/Spears ad.  Naturally you are going to see a little softening in his numbers.

But the real risk to the Obama campaign now is that the narrative set by those two ads begins to take hold with the electorate.  Some key numbers from the newest presidential daily_presidential_tracking_poll :

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the [favorable] numbers are … 61% among unaffiliated voters.

So you have McCain leading 52-37 among independents, but MORE significantly, he has a lead in favorabiity ratings among independents of 61-47.

The cratering of that “favorability” rating is why Obama is running behind the generic ballot advantage of +10 that Dems enjoy — even though I think that is down somewhat over the summer thanks to Reid and Pelosi’s antics.

13 Responses to “Checking In On The Daily Tracking Polls: McLovin McCain +1”

  1. he has a lead in favorabiity ratings among independents of 61-47.

    Either I’m missing something or the math on this is wrong.

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  2. Drum — that’s not a head to head matchup number. They can both be viewed “favorably” — the pollster isn’t asking the subject to pick one or the other.

    WLS (4ab682)

  3. The tide is turning.

    Icy Truth (ca1185)

  4. Oh, okay. *whew*

    Thought I was having a Senior Moment…

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  5. Obama has had a consistent 4-5% edge in the RCP poll average for some weeks. Now he’s at 2.7%. The change is small, but coming on the heels of a global Obamagasm tour it ought to be viewed as disastrous.

    At this point, Obama is losing. If he has any real professionals in his campaign, they should be telling him this.

    Glen Wishard (02562c)

  6. yup, no doubt about it, obama’s numbers are down and likely to fall farther if he doesnt wake up. while a huge chunk of his base (white women 40 and over) does NOT support him, he’s frittering away resources in MSM identified “battleground” states like virginia and north carolina. the only battle thats likely to take place in these states is how many points JMAC wins by.

    Methinks obama believes his own press clippings and if he doesnt wake the F up, this might be over before summer.

    james conrad (b2891a)

  7. Oh, Obama’s army of deluded foot soldiers will make sure the ballot boxes are stuffed Chicago Style nationwide.

    PCD (5c49b0)

  8. Have you noticed when the talking heads are brought in to discuss the horrible polling trends for BHO, the Dem commentators are more and more pointing out that these polls are “just a snapshot of that day”? Not once, and I follow this closely, not once did a Dem talking head point this out unprompted when BHO was enjoying his earlier leads.

    Goalposts forever move, folks.

    The political pros ALL know that it is all about the trendline. They also know that Dems overpoll because the number of GOP voters who actually vote typically is several points higher than the number of GOP voters the polls typically apportion as “likely voters.”

    HRC ain’t dead yet. Popcorn futures are rising.

    Ed (59b337)

  9. PashaG give some good advise, da?

    More advise I give for free:

    Obama is man that takes himself very serious, but ideas are not so much.

    New ad idea: “Seriously?!”

    or “How french fry oil will power Amtrak”

    (Consider that Amtrak does not stop at McDonalds and figure distribution and collection costs)

    PashaG (3de24f)

  10. (Consider that Amtrak does not stop at McDonalds and figure distribution and collection costs)

    Simple. If it costs anything to move the oil from the McDonald’s, we’ll just pass a law that says that Amtrak has to stop at every McDonald’s along its route.

    Billions of dollars to reroute the tracks? So what, just think of all the millions of dollars we’d be saving!

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  11. I have no problem with McCain running those ads, but I’d like to see his campaign change directions now and start emphasizing what he’s actually FOR, rather than how ridiculous Obama looks these days. The point has been made about Mr. Empty Suit – now tell everyone why they should cast their vote for you, and not just against the Oh – Man.

    Dmac (82935d)

  12. Dmac –

    I think the incompetence of the McCain campaign is exaggerated. But it’s definitely not a great campaign, and the fact that McCain is running even with Obama in his sleep ought to give the Obama people night sweats.

    Glen Wishard (02562c)

  13. Dmac,

    Of course I agree.

    But, sauce for cooking Obama goose in turn will be sauce for McCain. (Maybe McFreedom Fries sauce.)

    If BioFuels are no answer, what is? ….

    This is how Nuclear energy is to be demanded. Plus we note that fuel cell cars run by government need energy. Then we note that Federal land (I think military posts like Fort Drum) make good place for reactors of new modular design–atoms from warheads reused for energy instead of dollars for oil reused by Iran for warheads.

    Da?

    PashaG (3de24f)


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