Patterico's Pontifications

7/31/2008

Oops He Did It Again — Updated/Updated Again

Filed under: General — WLS @ 11:30 am

[Posted by WLS]

3 Day Gallup Tracking Poll:

7/27 — Obama +9

7/28 — Obama +8

7/29 — Obama +6

7/30 — Obama +4

7/31 — Obama +1

UPDATED:   8/1 — 44-44

Math is hard, but since this is based on a 3 day rolling “average”, the fact that he was up + 6 two days ago when the polling period was Sat-Sun-Mon, but is up only +1 today when the polling period was Mon-Tues-Wed, means there was a 5 point shift in the average when Tues-Wed replaced Sat-Sun.

I don’t know what that means, but it sounds bad.

The Gallup non-tracking poll from Monday showing McCain +4 no longer looks like an outlier.

Its interesting to consider the analysis from Gallup’s pollster than came with that non-tracking poll showing McCain +4:

This difference between registered and likely voters indicates that now McCain voters are disproportionately represented among the estimate of those most likely to vote if the election were held today. This difference (in which Republicans gain among likely voters compared to registered voters) appears for the first time in USA Today/Gallup polls this year. In earlier 2008 polls, more Democrats than Republicans were engaged in the campaign and considered likely voters. This is generally a rare occurrence given that Republicans have historically been more likely to qualify as likely voters under Gallup’s model (a fact that has been borne out in the real world as Republicans are able to win elections despite facing deficits in party identification or pre-election standing among all national adults).

The similarity between the likely voter and registered voter numbers in previous polls this year may be because there has been atypical interest in the election and enthusiasm among Democrats — likely due to the exciting nomination campaign between Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The current shift in likely voters could be a result of a short-term energizing of the GOP base as a reaction to the Obama foreign trip or some other cause. (Data from the current poll do suggest that Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to feel that the news media are too positive about Obama and too negative about McCain.) The degree to which this current shift toward the GOP candidate among likely voters remains in place remains to be seen. In general, most poll consumers agree that the likely voter model is most predictive in the final poll before an election; analysis based on likely voter models this early in the campaign should be considered to be a snapshot in time and suggestive of possible turnout scenarios and their implications.

The registered voter number, which would be equivalent to all eligible voters turning out, generally produces more stable estimates. This is the number that Gallup’s Daily tracking poll has reported to date.

The likely voter model gives a sense of what voter preferences might look like if those most likely to vote — based on their current interest in the election along with their past voting behavior — voted. The likely voter group measures hypothetical turnout “if the election were held today” with the understanding that conditions will change between now and the election, and knowing that well-designed and executed opinion polls can only measure the current state of affairs and not project many months into the future.

Update:  Quinnipiac has new polling out today on Ohio, Florida, and Penn.

Florida:  Obama 46-44 (June – Obama 47-43, down 2)

Ohio:  Obama 46-44 (June – Obama 48-42, down 4)

Penn:  Obama 49-42 (June – Obama 52-40, down 5)

I’ve always thought the Quinnipiac poll was a Dem leaning poll, sort of like the Field Poll in Calif.  So, the fact that they show the margins in these battleground states shrinking at the same time the national tracking polls show Obama losing nearly all his margin over McCain, suggests that Obama’s campaign since he became the presumptive nominee has gone the wrong direction.  He’s had two bounces — following Hillary’s capituation, and following his trip abroad.  Both disappeared in short order.  He’s like the sinlge guy in a bar late at night who always goes home alone — he just can’t close the deal.

49 Responses to “Oops He Did It Again — Updated/Updated Again”

  1. Polls, polls, polls! I’m surprised they’re not being done every hour on the hour.

    The bottom line? No matter what the polls say, McCain is down Scraping bottom in point of fact.

    David Ehrenstein (21c975)

  2. One can only hope that this may be indicative of true buyer’s remorse on the part of some voter’s dispositions – the more they see (and hear) from the Messiah, the less they like. Watch shortly for Obama’s camp to insinuate that the pollster’s numbers are really indicative of the latent racism in the country.

    Dmac (416471)

  3. There’s nothing latent about the racism of this country. But you don’t have to be a racist to dislike Obama. In fact, you don’t even have to be white.

    David Ehrenstein (21c975)

  4. Dmac — yep, they’ll blame it all on racism. Let’s see, blacks vote overwhelmingly for Barack 91% to 1% for McCain; while whites vote for McCain 70% to 30% for Barack. Yep, the MSM will claim that Barack is a victim of White racism! And there will be wailing and knashing of teeth. I wrote about Barack being toast back in May. If interested check out: http://jraymondwright.blogspot.com/2008/07/butter-up-barack-hes-toast-written-in.html

    and really, it has only gotten worse for the Obamessiah since May, what with the 20+ something flip-flops and other assorted gaffes.

    J. Raymond Wright (d83ab3)

  5. The difference between registered and likely voters isn’t a factor of over-representing McCain’s support. It’s simply because Obama is strongest among demographics that are least likely to vote: the poor and the young. Naturally, when it comes down to folks going to the polling booth and pulling the lever, Obama’s support won’t be as great.

    Steverino (1dda08)

  6. Steverino — very true, and I would only add that Obama was thought at one time to be able to translate the unique enthusiasm for his campaign into an atypical turnout, where young voters and poor voters would vote in disproporionately large numbers compared to their historical averages — averages that are well established over many many election cycles.

    I think this is where the GOP effort to paint him as just another ordinary politician willing to say anything and nothing in search of a vote has taken its toll. You only need to read some of the left-wing blogs to get a feel for how significantly the lack of enthusiams for him has begun to sink in once he started to position himself more in the center.

    The question is whether his move to the center will attract him enough votes to make up for what he loses when the left-wing brigades and the young voters that powered his rise return to vote at their historical averages — and I think Hillary showed the answer to be a resounding “No”.

    WLS (26b1e5)

  7. Looks like we’re facing another 2000 roller coaster ride :(

    Oiram (983921)

  8. “The current shift in likely voters could be a result of a short-term energizing of the GOP base as a reaction to the Obama foreign trip or some other cause.”

    The GOP voters have seen the kleptocratic incompetence of Pelosi and Reid, we have seen their tax hikes, their awful attempt to blame CEOs for everything, their putting pork and wasteful spending on everything, Boxers horrible energy bill, and the attempts at amnesty for illegals … and we know all these things will be law if Obama is President and Pelosi and Reid are running the Congress.

    The GOP voters have been dispirited by Republican folly and a center-right nominee who’s not with us on all issues, but we are SCARED STRAIGHT (ticket voting) by the prospects of left-liberal Democrats running the whole show. We know it will be an utter disaster. Even Obamedia bias is just a foretaste of how awful things will be, as Obama will have media enablers to move the country to the left. That is, we will become an overtaxed nanny-statist Euro-socialized neutered non-sovereign suck up to the UN and the globalist left.

    Spare us, O Lord, Spare us, from a rerun of the Carter years under the kleptocratic Socialist Barack Obama!

    Travis Monitor (8d33ce)

  9. I think this is where the GOP effort to paint him as just another ordinary politician willing to say anything and nothing in search of a vote has taken its toll.

    How meanspirited of the GOP! To take away the dreamy fairy-tale of the transformative Obamessiah and reveal him to be an inexperienced dolt of a politician and hard-core leftist whose main talents are reading teleprompters with conviction. Oh, and pay no attention to that Axelrod behind the curtain.

    Travis Monitor (8d33ce)

  10. a center-right nominee

    John McCain? Center-right?

    Only when compared to Obama…

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  11. If the trend continues, expect to see Obama at -93 on election day.

    Cicero (8db983)

  12. McCain needs to lay low and let Obama destroy himself. In the long run, Obama is the McCain campaign’s greatest asset and McCain is its worst.

    huey (917cf7)

  13. McCain has been reliably to the right on most issues – it’s the temporary brain farts that he experiences that tend to paint him to the left at times. Immigration and taxes being among those unfortunate leftward drifts.

    Dmac (416471)

  14. “Math is hard”
    Only because of sexist Barbie dolls. I denounce your anti-Title IX expansionist views!

    Minister Jack X Klompus el Shabazz (cf3660)

  15. Yes, Drumwaster, when compared to Obama….and the rest of the Senate. Where does a score of 80 put McCain? Center-right.

    http://www.acuratings.org/2007senate.htm

    I challenge you to name a better pork buster than McCain.

    Roy Mustang (989b48)

  16. Immigration and taxes being among those unfortunate leftward drifts.

    Unfortunately, those are the two Domestic Biggies, especially here in the IE…

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  17. I wonder, Roy, whether you remember the weeks following Bush’s first election, and the political machinations going on with a 50-50 split in the Senate.

    The Democrats were feeling out one or two Republicans to try and get them to switch to the Democrats, so that the Dems wouldn’t have to share power under a setup where a party line vote was one they would lose after Cheney’s Inauguration.

    The one that the Democrats were going after most insistently was the senior Senator from Arizona, currently the presumptive GOP candidate for President.

    But Jim Jeffords (from Vermont, who had just been re-elected as a Republican) beat him to the punch by changing to “Independent, caucusing with the Democrats”, it became a 51-49 Senate again, and the American people put a stop to that two years later, by putting the GOP firmly in control, 55-44-1.

    It also didn’t help that John Kerry was seriously looking at McCain for his running mate four years ago.

    And the “it’s my turn dammit!” approach he has shown in the runup to this nomination has caused me to state that he has not earned, and is not likely to earn, my vote.

    Not that I’m voting for Obama, but my vote here in California is likely to be wasted anyway.

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  18. The fact that the race is basically dead even when this is a dem year speaks volumes about the weakness of obama as a national candidate. I really doubt its going to get better for obama as november approaches, the voting public will tune in and they will expect definitive answers to serious issues from the candidates. Obama’s celeb status wont save him come october.

    james conrad (b2891a)

  19. David Ehrenstein wrote: There’s nothing latent about the racism of this country.

    Yeah, Dave. You’da thunk by now, all those strange fruit trees would have stopped growing all over. Ain’ nothin’ changed since Juneteenth.

    But seriously, Dave — is there another black person that has come as close to leading a white-majority country as Obama has thusfar? None spring to mind.

    L.N. Smithee (b048eb)

  20. You’re wasting your time arguing with a fool, L.N. – and he’s the clown prince of court jesters. Not a serious bone in his body, but watch what happens when you attempt to engage him – he’ll call you what some progressive and tolerant folks took to calling Condi over the past 8 years.

    Dmac (416471)

  21. LN Smithee — do you mean in a practical reality sense, or in an existential sense?

    If the former, I would say Obama has gotten the furtherest down the road, no question.

    If the latter, I think Colin Powell would have won in 2000 had he decided to enter the race.

    WLS (26b1e5)

  22. Here in Nevada, Obama supporters are organized and motivated. In the past 10 days, I have received three phone calls urging me to vote for Obama – about 100 days before the election.

    Perfect Sense (9d1b08)

  23. But seriously, Dave — is there another black person that has come as close to leading a white-majority country as Obama has thusfar? None spring to mind.

    Does Nelson Mandela count?

    Drumwaster (5ccf59)

  24. 20. WLS,

    I was pretty bummed that Colin Powell didn’t enter the race, as I wasn’t interested in any other candidates in the Republican party. I wasn’t as conservative back then, but was appalled by the behavior of the democrats, the media, and the general public’s own knowledge of how elections work.

    G (722480)

  25. Drumwaster:

    Does Nelson Mandela count?

    I said “white-majority.”

    WLS:

    LN Smithee — do you mean in a practical reality sense, or in an existential sense?

    If the former, I would say Obama has gotten the furtherest down the road, no question.

    If the latter, I think Colin Powell would have won in 2000 had he decided to enter the race.

    Practical reality. And I don’t think Powell could have won because I don’t think he could declare loyalty to the platform of either party.

    L.N. Smithee (b048eb)

  26. Powell would have denied McCain a platform to run on in 2000, and Bush would have probably not gained the traction he gained against McCain if he had been running against Powell. Powell would have been the nominee, and he would have buried Gore.

    WLS (26b1e5)

  27. I just got an intercom buzz downstairs, from someone wanting to talk to me from the Democratic Nat’l Comm. – I live in Chicago, so it can’t be for my vote. Must be for a monetary donation – ha.

    Dmac (416471)

  28. is there another black person that has come as close to leading a white-majority country as Obama has thusfar? None spring to mind.

    Is that a trick question? The Obamessiah is just as white as he is black.

    Abu Al-Poopypants (037445)

  29. #7 Perhaps more McGovern I than Jimmuh Carter II?

    What of the talk of an Obama-Powell ticket? Of course we know blacks are incapable of being racist. Funny how some incandescently wise and talented blacks such as David Dinkins could win a mayoralty even with minority of blacks voting in NYC. Or is it liberals are color-blind? I think I’m joking about Dinkins and latte libs. Excepting good people of color like LN Smithee, I think Obama could be supremely incompetent and corrupt and the far left and many blacks would still embrace his Lightworkerness. If JC Watts, Rice and Powell think Obama is fine for America, seems to me they are looking at a POTUS for African-Americans first and foremost. How many of us here harbor any guilt for long ago slavery?

    madmax333 (0c6cfc)

  30. For those of you who are Powell fans, perhaps you would like to tell me why he sat on the information about who really leaked Valerie Plame’s name to the press? He knew it was Armitage and he remained quiet and let the administration twist in the wind and Scooter Libby take the fall. Not exactly admirable in my book.

    So far the MSM has been trying to shove Obama down our throats. We can only assume it is because they understand that he is as socialistic as they are. But Obama’s arrogance, refusal to debate McCain in town hall style meetings (especially at Fort Hood) and his pandering to the Eurowennie crowd is beginning to make some shake their heads.

    The youth will come out because they are so in the tank for Obama they can’t see through the fog.
    But if Obama doesn’t try to hold his arrogance down, and keeps making statemtents like he has the last couple of day, he will lose, and lost big. Americans don’t want to elect a King of the World, they want a president they think will work for them. We had enough of kings in 1776. That philosophy has not changed.

    retire05 (d993c9)

  31. Obama-Powell?

    Isn’t Adam Clayton Powell dead?

    Another Drew (8018ee)

  32. Is that a trick question? The Obamessiah is just as white as he is black.

    Technically, he’s more white than black… But leave us not concern ourselves with such details…

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  33. How many of us here harbor any guilt for long ago slavery?

    Not even the tiniest little bit.

    Mainly because I wasn’t around then, and I had nothing to do with it…

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  34. #29-#30

    So long ago- wasn’t adam clayton powell the NY pol of Bimini fame? and a corrupt dirtbag or am I merely being racist?

    It has been said that Obama’s kid-abandoning/polygamist daddy dearest was mainly Arab. Obama is 1/16 Black, 7/16 Arab and 1/2 Honky mf’er. Some say he’s be the first arab potus. There are many feel good stories out there about McCain and his 2nd wife, but what you’ll hear is the nasty innuendoes and character assassination. Meanwhile, the transparent crap in the Lightworker’s autobiographies is glossed over and his association with a motley crew of criminal and/or racist scumwads is ignored for the most part or makes him more viable to the far left asshats.

    madmax333 (0c6cfc)

  35. Abu Al-Poopypants (oh brother) wrote: Is that a trick question? The Obamessiah is just as white as he is black.

    Kinda sorta, but you know how things are and have been for awhile — one drop makes you not. And heaven help the black man who tries to “pass” from folks who view that as betrayal (oh, hello, David E.!)

    One thing’s for sure; Obama doesn’t talk about the black side of his family much. Yesterday he said he was distantly related to Wild Bill Hickok and challenged McCain to a showdown (“I’m a quick draw!”)

    No, I’m NOT making that up.

    L.N. Smithee (b048eb)

  36. Maybe Obama is starting to look “creepy”. You know, like the clown at a children’s birthday party who hangs around too long after the cake and ice cream.

    C. Norris (0dcbd8)

  37. WLS wrote: Powell would have denied McCain a platform to run on in 2000, and Bush would have probably not gained the traction he gained against McCain if he had been running against Powell. Powell would have been the nominee, and he would have buried Gore.

    I don’t agree. The totality of Powell’s record indicates to me that he is amorphous politically. Regardless of his projection of extraordinary character, I can’t imagine him failing to seriously tick off the base of either party.

    L.N. Smithee (b048eb)

  38. Do you honestly think I’ve tried to “pass,” L.N. ? Haven’t I made it clear in here that I’m no “Julie Laverne” in “Showboat”?

    David Ehrenstein (21c975)

  39. As for Obama’s rise to the Democfratic party’s candidate, I don’t believe social progress can be measured through conventional politics. The hard work, the work that really counts, is always done far from any political party.

    David Ehrenstein (21c975)

  40. Obviously, Obama’s tires are deflating, fast.

    Patricia (f56a97)

  41. That’s good, Patricia. There are so many Obama metaphors it’s hard to keep track of them, but the enduring ones seem to be transportation-themed: buses and tires.

    DRJ (e4b6ac)

  42. Short answer, he along with Armitage were members of the Azeri oil concern; that depends on friendly relations with Iran,and Iraq. Scowcroft and Baker were also on board with that enterprise. They were also among the most staunch defenders of the Wahhabi Saudi regime in the cabinet; and in the greater public sphere.

    narciso (c36902)

  43. That’s true, DRJ, he’s setting himself up! It’s going to be a long and fun campaign season.

    Patricia (f56a97)

  44. After November, maybe Obama can transition to film. Oprah can give him a meaningful role, like “Imitation of Life” or something. Of course, L.N. Smithee can produce!

    Vermont Neighbor (31ccb6)

  45. And today McCain and Obama are tied. If McCain takes a consistent lead and Obama is running short of cash, Obama may find time in his schedule for those town hall debates he turned down earlier. My guess is that McCain would agree to the town hall debates, no matter what.

    MartyH (52fae7)

  46. Now a tie — 44-44

    WLS (4ab682)

  47. Actually Obama is neither black nor white.

    Racists!

    Patricia (f56a97)


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