Patterico's Pontifications

5/29/2008

Reality Check for Obamania — Electoral Vote Projection From May 28, 2004

Filed under: General — WLS @ 12:19 pm



Posted by WLS:

 politico.com

This is an electoral projection of the Kerry-Bush race about 5 1/2 months before the 2004 election, right about where we are now. 

If my memory is correct, Kerry did not win 327-211.

Among the states projected for Kerry based on late spring polling, but actually went for Bush in the general election:

Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Nevada.

Bush won Missouri by +7

Bush won Florida by +5

Bush won Nevada by +2.5 

Bush won Ohio by +2

Also of interest, in May 2004, the following states were listed as “Barely Bush”, meaning the margin was less than 3%:

Georgia, S.Carolina, Tenn, Arkansas, W.Va.

Bush won those states handily in the election:

Georgia — +17

S.Carolina — +18

Tenn —  +14

W.Va — +13

Arkansas — +10 

48 Responses to “Reality Check for Obamania — Electoral Vote Projection From May 28, 2004”

  1. a lot has changed in four years. comparisons to 2004 don’t mean a damn thing.

    assistant devil's advocate (ff7f04)

  2. They why is McCain polling better against Obama than Bush polled against Kerry?

    You want to revisit Dukakis’ early summer lead over Bush 41?

    Carter’s lead over Ford?

    How many pianos do you need to fall on your head before you realize the country is fundamentally more conservative than the standard bearers of the Democrat party?

    WLS (68fd1f)

  3. Bush fatigue, understandable in many ways, and a cozy media will definitely be a factor though. That could push things toward the Dems. Voting booth moment of truth can indeed happen and go either way with either a “Ehhh I think McCain is probably a safe bet” or a “Uggh I’m sick of the Republicans” happening in a number of cases.

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  4. They why is McCain polling better against Obama than Bush polled against Kerry?

    You want to revisit Dukakis’ early summer lead over Bush 41?

    Carter’s lead over Ford?

    How many pianos do you need to fall on your head before you realize the country is fundamentally more conservative than the standard bearers of the Democrat party?

    Can you just wait until the Democratic campaign is over?

    You watch, once it’s Obama vs. McCain, officially, and all of Hillary’s spotlight moves over to McCain, the polls will change drastically. McCain is already crumbling under the paltry amount of attention he’s received thus far. His campaign just announced that he is opposed to granting retroactive telecom immunity. How is an old ass man like John McCain going to generate competetive conservative turnout when he’s compromising his party’s negotiation standing on ‘key’ issues like telecom immunity?

    Levi (76ef55)

  5. JK — if that was true, you would see it now. You see signs of it in the Senate race polling, but you don’t see it with McCain.

    McCain is his own “brand”. The Dems can call him “McBush” all the want but it isn’t going to stick. He’s got a long policy record that, for better or worse, distinguishes him in many ways from the current administration.

    The Country has not elected a dyed-in-the-wool liberal like Obama since …. when? Not Truman, Kennedy or Johnson, and certainly not Clinton. Carter might be the closest but he ran as a cipher and could carry states in the south.

    WLS (68fd1f)

  6. #2
    How many pianos do you need to fall on your head before you realize the country is fundamentally more conservative than the standard bearers of the Democrat party?
    That’s exactly going to be mcCain’s problem this fall; the conservatives. Not with recent incidents of endorsements and endorsement rejections and endorsement withdrawals. That doesnt bode well for him with this key base. But we shall see how he handles it.

    love2008 (5189d2)

  7. The second aspect of this is the number of voters that aren’t paying attention too closely. The number of people who will wait until very close to election time to pay any attention is easily enough to reduce the accuracy of polling this far out.

    If you poll people on the stated goals of Democrats, you tend to regularly find people are fine with that. Health care for everyone? Ok. Livable retirement for everyone? Ok. Clean air? Ok. Color blind society? Ok.

    The break comes when you pay attention to the details. And in particular add “Should the government provide…” to the question.

    That’s precisely the thing that ‘not paying too much attention’ has one gloss over.

    Al (b624ac)

  8. WLS – yeah I agree that McCain is his own man when it comes to a lot of issues other than foreign policy, but do you think that that has the potential to be the area where people might be convinced of “they’re one and the same” and people’s desire to “get out of Iraq” could win the day, regardless of how questionable Obama’s details in accomplishing that are?

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  9. Its been Obama v. McCain since the polls closed in Oregon. Hillary only made news when she raised the specter of the R.Kennedy assassination.

    WLS (68fd1f)

  10. Comrade Obama will find a way. Unless the public gets wind of who Comrade Obama really is, and what he really intends to do, then …

    bill-tb (26027c)

  11. The second aspect of this is the number of voters that aren’t paying attention too closely. The number of people who will wait until very close to election time to pay any attention is easily enough to reduce the accuracy of polling this far out.

    I know it’s probably comforting to use the same models you’ve always used to predict your success, but this is a model-busting election year. I mean hello, the Democratic nomination came down to being between a black guy and a woman. Meanwhile, the Republicans have nominated John McCain’s old ass, whose arguably been more damaged politically and image-wise than anyone else in the past eight years and who draws much ire from the most hardcore (and influential) parts of the party. All of this on the heels of the worst presidency many Americans ever thought they’d see.

    The sooner you guys come to grips with the fact that you’re about to be sent on a very long, much deserved exile in the woods, the better.

    Levi (76ef55)

  12. Comrade Obama will find a way. Unless the public gets wind of who Comrade Obama really is, and what he really intends to do, then …

    Stanley Kurtz nails another piece of the puzzle onto the wall, not sure who is paying attention at this point.

    These things may add up at the end.

    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDZiMjkwMDczZWI5ODdjOWYxZTIzZGIyNzEyMjE0ODI=

    cfbleachers (4040c7)

  13. Comrade Obama will find a way. Unless the public gets wind of who Comrade Obama really is, and what he really intends to do, then …

    This is a ridiculous way of pretending to discuss politics. You make him sound like a cartoon villain. Tune in next week kids, when we find out ‘what he really intends to do!’

    Levi (76ef55)

  14. “The break comes when you pay attention to the details. And in particular add “Should the government provide…” to the question.”
    I don’t think a lot people ask themselves that philosophical add-on there.

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  15. I know it’s probably comforting to use the same models you’ve always used to predict your success, but this is a model-busting election year.

    You do understand that…

    No, you know what, never mind. You’ve drank so much of the Hopey-Changey flavored kool-aid, no ammount of fact will persuade you…

    As much as I loath McCain, I look forward to your anguished wails when Obama either doesn’t get the nod, or loses the general election…

    Scott Jacobs (fa5e57)

  16. “when Obama either doesn’t get the nod, or loses the general election…”
    I think it’s pretty much a lock that BHO has the nod at this point. I think the superdelegates are probably more willing to take the chance on the general than have a “stolen nomination” pinned on them.

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  17. Levi, wanna bet? How much are you willing to lay down?

    Pablo (99243e)

  18. “I know it’s probably comforting to use the same models you’ve always used to predict your success, but this is a model-busting election year.”

    Yeah Levi, like we’ve never heard that one before. It’s only a cold sore, I’m from the government and I’m here to help you, etc., etc.

    The American people overwhelmingly did not want Jimmy Carter to serve a second term in office, which is exactly what Barack Obama represents, but with melanin.

    daleyrocks (d9ec17)

  19. which is exactly what Barack Obama represents, but with melanin.

    and minus the drawl…

    Scott Jacobs (fa5e57)

  20. and his version of Rosalyn is quite the joy as well.

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  21. I mean hello, the Democratic nomination came down to being between a black guy and a woman.

    McCain should just quit. Identity politics being king and all.

    In fact, Republicans should just quit altogether. Levi cannot tolerate any difference of opinion.

    JD (75f5c3)

  22. From a previous thread I wanted (somewhat off topic but related in a general way) to repost this mea culpa of mine:
    And I forgot to direct my apology to Patterico himself. I sincerely regret polluting the comments with profane rants. I highly respect your work as an attorney and as a blogger and I do not wish to demean the quality of the opinion and dialog on your site by engaging in gutter level taunts and insults. Whatever my opinion of the views and personality of those with whom I disagree, I have forgotten the importance of taking the high road and remaining civil. In the anarchic swirl of views and opinions on the internet, it is very easy to hide behind a pseudonym and a keyboard and rail against imagined adversaries. The level to which I allowed myself to sink is embarrassing and uncalled for and not becoming of an intelligent forum of opinion. And so, to the readers and posters who have had to trudge through the muck of my profanity, and especially to Patterico, I again offer my sincere apologies.

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  23. Pablo – I am a very, very, right wing dude. I detest the Democrat politics. I hate GOP politics. I’ll hold my nose and vote McCain even though 1) he can’t win in CA, and 2) I can’t stand Mr. Straight Talk.

    But to your question…I’ll put up to $500 on the election. The Dems are going to have a monster election. 2008 will be the GOP’s 1972.

    To use a Boortz term – the “government schools” have taught three generations that they don’t need to think. Oprah has taught two generations that feeling is all. History has taught that the common man simply wants change from time to time. Hello Atlee, good bye Churchill.

    Ed (6b8782)

  24. gas has crested $4/gallon, how many more even dollar amounts could it go through before the election? when the economy is in the toilet, do voters typically lean repub or demo? does the average dogpatch voter feel that he or she is getting fair value for this expensive war? how many of these voters have noticed what’s happened to the price of cooking oil and dairy products? what will the job market be like in the first week of november? at his advanced age, can mccain avoid standard incidents of aging such as heart attacks, strokes and gradually impaired cognition until then? what will he look and sound like in a televised debate with obama? how many mccain votes will bob barr, just nominated by the libertarians, suck away? what about the impact of unprecedented natural conditions, heatwaves, droughts, storms, here or in foodgrowing areas, that might be attributed to human activity?

    assistant devil's advocate (ff7f04)

  25. Levi: All of this on the heels of the worst presidency many Americans ever thought they’d see.

    You must be younger than 30.

    aunursa (1b5bad)

  26. “To use a Boortz term – the “government schools” have taught three generations that they don’t need to think.”
    You’d be surprised how much this line of thinking has infected even some private schools as well. The main goal in a lot of the elite private schools is to have the students compete for spots in what U.S. News declares the top colleges. High grades are a dime a dozen and a lot of parents pressure teachers to just give their kids the high grades they believe tuition dollars entitle them to. I knew a kid who went to his interview at Princeton and the admissions officer showed him a huge stack of the “4.0 – 1600″ crowd, shrugged and asked “So what’s so great about you?”
    On the election – do you really think it’s going to be that big of a blowout and if so will it be due to staunch conservative refusal to vote for McCain?

    Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  27. Levi,

    I mean hello, the Democratic nomination came down to being between a black guy and a woman.

    1. What makes you think Obama is black?

    2. What makes you think Hillary is a woman?

    And cut the Valley Girl talk–it makes you look dumber than you already are.

    MarkJ (42fe5b)

  28. Levi #12:

    This is a ridiculous way of pretending to discuss politics.

    Wow, the pot calling the kettle black!

    Thanks for the best laugh I’ve had this week.

    Kenny (76922b)

  29. For conservatives uneasy with McCain and with independents, the question really is four years of McCain and a Democratic Congress versus eight years of Obama with a Democratic Congress.

    That was frightening just typing “versus eight years of Obama with a Democratic Congress.”

    Many issues to be sure, but Obama foreign policy(?), Obama (no knowledge of tax policy and one of these community organizers badgering banks to lend to un-creditor-worthy minority borrowers) handling the economy (?), Obama appointing federal judges (?), Obama healthcare (?), Obama kowtowing to the plaintiffs’-attorney lobby (?), the list goes on.

    I’m with Dick Morris: wait until October or so, and then unleash the Jeremiah Wright ads. They’re the best conservative “get out the vote” tactic that McCain has.

    SAM (c36902)

  30. Aunursa: I’m 34, and I would argue that the current president is worse than any I can remember: Reagan, Bush (Sr), and Clinton, all did a better job.

    aphrael (e0cdc9)

  31. Ed,

    But to your question…I’ll put up to $500 on the election. The Dems are going to have a monster election. 2008 will be the GOP’s 1972.

    You realize that Nixon was reelected in a landslide in ’72, right?

    If you insist, I’ll take your money.

    Pablo (99243e)

  32. aphrael – which made you alive for but too young to be cognizant of the colossal job Carter did, I assume?

    Jack Klompus (b796b4)

  33. Jack Klompus: I have *no memory whatsoever* of the Carter years except, oddly, for the murder of John Lennon.

    aphrael (e0cdc9)

  34. I got caught up in the spam filter…I think it happens when I try to link for some reason. Anyway, Stanley Kurtz at NRO has another article that really points out some interesting things about Obama and ACORN.

    cfbleachers (4040c7)

  35. aphrael: Those type of events do tend to make their mark. I remember at the age of 8 how the coverage of the People’s Temple suicide cult in Guyana freaked me cold.

    Jack Klompus (b796b4)

  36. I was a kid in New Jersey at the time, about the age of 7. The radio kept going on and on about the death of “the former Beatle”, and, having never heard of the Beatles, I was puzzled how a beetle could become a man.

    aphrael (e0cdc9)

  37. Haha that’s funny – reverse Kafka.
    South or North Jersey?

    Jack Klompus (b796b4)

  38. East Windsor turnpike exit.

    My mom moved to Texas in 81, then to California in 83, and I’ve been here since. :)

    aphrael (e0cdc9)

  39. Cool! Left Philly for Texas two years ago but still live and die by the Phillies. =)

    Jack Klompus (b796b4)

  40. to the tune of God Bless America…
    ———————————
    God damn America,

    Land that I loathe!

    Stand behind her, and despise her,

    Fight the Right with Barak Obama!

    Gen-o-ci-dal,

    Hom-i-ci-dal,

    Su-i-ci-dal,

    And the Bomb!

    God damn America!

    My racist home,

    God damn America!

    Wright’s will be done…

    (Paid for by Obaminists for Obama 2008)

    ———————————————————

    heh

    Brad (c716c1)

  41. Somebody throw Brad a biscuit while he wags his proud little tail.

    Leviticus (22eefa)

  42. Left Wing Polls cannot be trusted

    Dennis D (ae900a)

  43. I’m afraid Ed is correct. But the moral flaccidity and failures of public education are only part of it. The 25 or so years of prosperity that began with Reagan has dulled a generation not only to the reality of another Carter, but to the notion of consequences at all. Half the country lives in a dream. And the dream within the dream, i.e.,Obama, must be indulged. There is no stopping it. Can’t you feel it? The cost the rest of us, all of us, pay will be terrible. But that’s the way of it, sadly.

    rrpjr (fb0748)

  44. If we had a fair and unbiased media McCain would lead by 30 pts in polls.

    Dennis D (ae900a)

  45. The real ” sleeper” state will be New Jersey where Kerry won 1.9 Million and Bush won 1.6 Million votes. I think McCain fits much better into the NJ ” Tom Kean” type mold that is successful for NJ GOP. New Jersey has been assaulted with tax hikes from Corzine like I have never seen before.

    Dennis D (ae900a)

  46. Are you anti-big government? Do you think you know better than the government?
    Well, the government of the US of A is a government of, by and for the people; “We the People” are the government. If you despise the People of the US of A and are anti-We the People, then you are nothing short of elitist.

    Bill (3e3957)

  47. That made sense to you, Bill? Because the Constitution of the United States as originally constructed was “anti-big government”. Do you hate the Constitution, Bill?

    SPQR (26be8b)


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