Patterico's Pontifications

5/4/2008

Is Obama in Trouble? (Updated)

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 1:11 pm

[Guest post by DRJ]

First Jeremiah Wright, then William Ayers, and lingering in the background is Tony Rezko. Barack Obama has some skeletons in his closet and when you add in recent polls, Tom Elia at The New Editor wonders if Obama is in bigger trouble than anyone thinks:

“The latest CBS News/New York Times poll contains an interesting tidbit (pdf file) about a potential Obama-McCain match-up, particularly considering the tilt of the poll.

According to the poll, “McCain now holds a three-point lead over Obama among women; last month, women gave Obama a 13-point margin.”

As a point of comparison, the CNN exit poll after the 2004 presidential election showed Democrat John Kerry winning the women’s vote by a three-point margin.

November’s a long way off, but if that six-point swing among female voters holds up for McCain, it’s a big, big development if Obama is the Dems’ nominee.”

Elia also notes that Gallup has McCain over Obama by 6 points.

We all know polls can be wrong which is why I have another test: A worried politician often puts his children on display to bolster the campaign. Chelsea Clinton went public on behalf of her mother after Obama became a factor in Iowa. Now it looks like Obama’s girls are more involved, and that suggests to me Obama is feeling the heat.

UPDATE: Don Surber says Obama is so deep in trouble he’s “Kerry Deep.”

— DRJ

9 Responses to “Is Obama in Trouble? (Updated)”

  1. I think the “super delegates” are too afraid of a black backlash if Hillary wins with their help. They would rather take a loss than risk the support of blacks that seem to ignore all the other reasons why they might waver; bad schools, teachers unions, illegal immigrants and the rest.

    Mike K (a08d8e)

  2. I am personally offended by the vociferous black supporters of Obama threatening the DNC if Obama isn’t nominated. Last time I checked this was a Democracy, and the DNC wasn’t controlled by mob rule. Such threats should be ignored. Bullying by a special interest or minority is a sign of a troubled candidate. The guidelines where super delegates are concerned appear to be few . They can use any criteria to decide which candidate to support….they aren’t just a “confirmation” vote. That said, several have stated that “electability” would be at the top of the list….for good reason…..because winning the White House is what this whole process has been about. My hope is that the super delegates don’t take their eyes off the prize, which is choosing the person that is most likely to beat McCain. That is their over-riding responsibility, hurt feelings and voter disappointment must take a back seat.

    Hako (4bd92b)

  3. ODE TO OBAMA (Second Ed.)
    by Publius II

    There once was a man named Obama
    His life began with drama
    An African Muslim father
    And a wild white mama

    Obama’s white grandparents
    They gave him a charmed life
    Raised on the beaches of Hawaii
    Far from ghetto strife

    He went to private schools
    Fourteen thousand dollars a year
    Working-class white folks
    They were nowhere near

    He attended Columbia
    Then Harvard Law
    A very soft and liberal upbringing
    Something Americans eventually saw

    He then went to Chicago
    Nation of Islam, Farrakhan, Black Panthers and Jackson
    The only friends he made
    All from the extreme left-wing faction

    He joined a radical church
    His Pastor downright insane
    Blacks and whites, he said
    Think with different parts of their brain

    His church praised a man named Cone
    With hateful opinions he was filled
    He said white people were “the devil”
    And Gods who love whites must be killed

    Obama first ran for State Senate
    With permission from Chicago’s Marxist King
    A domestic terrorist named Ayers
    Obama kissed his ring

    He wrote a book called “Dreams From My Father”
    From start to finish a racist rant
    After people finally read it
    They later said: “Obama, no we can’t”

    He wrote how he rejected his mother’s race
    And that Malcolm X was a hero
    People had a clear warning
    Obama was a dangerous zero

    He was then elected to the U.S. Senate
    Obama’s ego grew very bold
    He barely served a year
    I will run for President was the story he told

    He spent millions to stage rallies
    The crowds would yell and cheer
    But then it all fizzled after he said
    Typical white folks cling to religion, guns and beer

    His wife said America was mean
    She was never really proud
    Her Black Separatist thesis at Princeton
    Became a campaign cloud

    People said he was a Muslim
    His supporters scoffed and jeered
    Then his Black Liberation Church was exposed
    And Obama’s ugly head was reared

    He tried to recover in a speech on race
    The radical left-wing media offered raves
    But he said white folks had an “untrained ear”
    And abolitionists in Pennsylvania turned over in their graves

    He claimed to be a uniter
    He would bring people together all at once
    But after his speech in Philadelphia
    He proved to be a demographic dunce

    He tried once more to persuade whites
    But his bowling was a mess
    He rolled a 37
    Like a 5-year-old girl in a sundress

    He then played basketball
    He drove the ball to the rack
    But when all was said and done
    He looked like an old man having a heart attack

    He wouldn’t cover his heart
    As the National Anthem played
    It’s a meaningless gesture he said
    But Americans felt betrayed

    He wouldn’t wear a flag pin
    It was against his One World view
    It doesn’t matter he said
    And the American people stewed

    He first called terrorist Ayers his friend
    Then said this man he didn’t really know
    More deceit and cover-ups
    Obama’s lies began to grow

    Farrakhan, Jackson and Sharpton
    Three of Obama’s greatest fans
    He tried hiding them in the closet
    So not to further offend the white man

    Then came his anti-American Pastor
    Obama’s mentor for 20 years
    He preened, shucked and jived
    White people rose up and sneered

    NBC and the New York Times
    They tried each day to save Obama’s campaign
    But real Americans said “FU”
    And Obama spiraled down the drain

    The radical left-wing Democrats
    A Presidential race lost once again
    Is it really a surprise
    They’ve lost 7 of the last 10?

    Publius II (4de1af)

  4. Following these polls will give you whiplash after a while. The latest CBSNYT poll (the same group whose previous poll is discussed at length in this post) has Obama with double-digit leads over both Clinton and McCain.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml

    Phil (6d9f2f)

  5. Funny thing when you look at the internals of that poll, Phil, showing Obama has a lead over McCain (from the bottom of the very last page):

    Total Respondents 671
    Total Republicans 194 / 195 (unweighted/weighted)
    Total Democrats 269 / 261 (unweighted/weighted)
    Total Independents 208 / 214 (unweighted/weighted)

    Obama’s “leading” McCain because the sample favors Democrats by a 4-3 margin over Republicans. It’s a worthless poll.

    Shad (36f787)

  6. “Obama’s “leading” McCain because the sample favors Democrats by a 4-3 margin over Republicans.”

    Looks like they weighed it.I don’t think democrats and republicans have a national parity though.

    stef (df613b)

  7. They are good parents. If only I did not already have a mommy and daddy (passed away but I had him for a long time) I would vote for them to be mine.

    nk (1e7806)

  8. The interesting part of that poll is this:

    Independents back Obama in a head to head against McCain, but in a Clinton-McCain contest independents support McCain by five points.

    And that’s not tainted by the D/R balance in the overall poll.

    aphrael (db0b5a)

  9. aphrael, I’m not sure it matters that much. What really matters is Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and a handful of other states. That’s where the money will go, and that’s how the election will turn.

    And Hillary is much better there, because she’s a much better candidate than Obama.

    Jem (4cdfb7)


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