Patterico's Pontifications

4/22/2008

Predictions

Filed under: 2008 Election — Patterico @ 7:59 am



(1) Your predictions for today’s election?

(2) What are the proper criteria for either camp to declare victory?

(3) Shouldn’t the definition of “winning” be getting more votes and/or delegates than the other candidate?

(4) Kettle corn? Cheesy popcorn? Or traditional popcorn?

So many choices.

33 Responses to “Predictions”

  1. 1- Hillary

    2- While Hillary is expected to win by a large margin, anything that has her getting more than Obama is, frankly, a win for her.

    3- Yes. To say otherwise is to admit you can’t ACTUALLY win.

    4- Kettle. Definately kettle…

    Scott Jacobs (fa5e57)

  2. Hillary by 5%. That’s just enough to justify staying in, but not enough to overtake Obama without a few more good debates, which he will avoid like the plague, and then she will make fun of him for.

    We won’t find out how many delegates that is until later (because of the way they’re divided up), but at this point, it isn’t so much about delegates as about showing that she’s the better candidate.

    Daryl Herbert (4ecd4c)

  3. (1) Your predictions for today’s election?

    Massive amounts of whining and complaining from the left no matter what happens. I have high confidence in this prediction.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  4. Lots of junk while watching hockey, so I’ll miss the interviews of the candidates.
    Now, it they went after each other with hockey sticks, that could be interesting.

    Another Drew (f9dd2c)

  5. I went to a hockey game and a Democratic Primary broke out! Wokka wokka!

    ras (fc54bb)

  6. #4 Another Drew:

    Now, it they went after each other with hockey sticks,

    Oh, now that would be fun!

    Otherwise, I’m normally a traditional salt & butter guy, but cheesy sounds good today.

    EW1(SG) (84e813)

  7. 1. Hillary by 8%
    2. It doesn’t matter because the party machine will choose Obama over Clinton no matter if she blows out all remaining states.
    3. I think the and/or is the tricky part along with which votes count and which don’t.
    4. Good old fashioned white popcorn slathered with butter and salt

    dianne (a2c92a)

  8. 51-49 for hillary. both camps will declare victory. 100 more days of awful backbiting. a brokered convention selecting an experienced compromise candidate, maybe one with a nobel peace prize.

    assistant devil's advocate (fe4e8f)

  9. I’m tired of popcorn. I like Planter’s Fancy Mix with a double shot of a good bourbon or Irish whiskey over ice and water.

    And, oh yeah, Hillary will take Pennsylvania. Decisively. The sheen has worn off Barrack Pretty-In-Pink Obama.

    nk (35ac33)

  10. Hash brownies with some premium vanilla ice cream. The hash to acknowledge Obama’s drug use and it’s appeal to younger voters and the brownies to mark Hillary’s historic gaffe regarding nonworking mothers. The ice cream to cut the chocolate, plus I like the ebony and ivory contrast of the snack with respect to the primary. You definitely need drugs or some other substance to contemplate one of these fools possibly being elected president.

    Works for me.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  11. 1)Hillary
    2)If you are going to declare victory, you should probably win.
    3)Duh
    4)Cracker Jacks, because I am a bitter TWP

    The end result of any liberal plan on immigration (75f5c3)

  12. 1)Hillary
    2)If you are going to declare victory, you should probably win.
    3)Duh
    4)Cracker Jacks, because I am a bitter TWP

    Oops

    JD TWP (75f5c3)

  13. That was just a hypothethical menu, of course, I would never suggest violating the law, solicit others to violate the law or anything of that nature.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  14. 1. Too close to call.

    She retains the old line Democrats…he has the cultists. The cultists dominate the media. The cultists are much better at organizing, marching, protesting. It’s what they do.

    2. Too early to tell, too late to matter.

    If she wins Pennsylvania, she still must win Indiana, Kentucky…pretty much everything except North Carolina (a predicted loss) to mount the argument that the base is split down the middle.

    Unless and until she pulls off the late comeback and sustains it through those other states, her argument will fizzle.

    It won’t matter, because at the end of the day, if he is ahead, he wins. If he ties, he wins. If he is slightly behind, he wins. They won’t take it away from him, they would get pilloried in the “in the bag for Obama” media, they would significantly dilute the black vote and they would fracture the party. Not going to happen. Neither is the “deux ex machina” of an Al Gore nomination. That won’t be seen as a “compromise” by the African American base or the far left.

    3.Too logical to apply to a party that lost its ability to think logically after McGovern.

    When the Democrats go left, lefter, leftist…throw logic out the window. It doesn’t matter what the law is, what the rules are, what the sane decision would be…these are cultists you are talking about. Kos Kidz and Move.On aren’t about following rules and logic, they are about breaking rules and destroying logic.

    This is a tantrum waiting to happen. In fact, this entire democratic primary has been a battle of the best tantrum thrower.

    4. Watching the new “Annie Oakley” vs. the black “Earl Anthony”…doesn’t call for popcorn. There’s only one movie treat that qualifies.

    Goobers.

    cfbleachers (4040c7)

  15. #1) Hillary by 12 percentage points

    #2) Hillary really needs to win by 15, because her campaign is $1 million in debt and isn’t going to have enough cash run an effective air & ground game in the remaining states unless she gets a win big enough to excite her donors & supporters.

    #3) When you’re 168 delegates behind with the national campaign 85% over, not necessarily. If the Dodgers score 1 run more than the Reds in the bottom of the 8th inning in a game they are five runs behind, does it matter that they technically “won” the inning?

    Sean P (e57269)

  16. My prediction: this is going to be fun for Republicans to watch, regardless of the outcome. The most fun keeps both of these clowns in the race until the convention.

    Bar Sinister (3c44d0)

  17. 1) Hillary, by a margin wide enough to keep her claiming she can win and small enough to keep anyone else from believing her
    2)Both camps will claim victory, based on the premise that at least one person for voted for them.
    3)The focus in this primary is not so much winning as whining
    4)What NK is having, but I’ll let him have my Planters as an extra.

    End of the day: the party hacks will decide that the black vote with the MTV vote and the Code Pink vote is more important than the normal people vote. They will therefore nominate Obama with Fergie as his VP.

    kishnevi (202292)

  18. They will therefore nominate Obama with Fergie as his VP.

    I just threw up a little in my mouth…

    Scott Jacobs (fa5e57)

  19. Scott, Obama or reflux … its so hard to tell the difference.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  20. 1. Hillary by 8
    2. Hillary – 1 vote more than Obama
    Obama – within 9 % of Hillary
    3. No, not in a presidential primary election, for reasons of momentum, and demographics, expectations are an important part of the equation.
    4. Kettle

    headhunt23 (9e1243)

  21. Fergie the hawt singer, or the English Fergie? I could tolerate the singer …

    JD (5f0e11)

  22. 1, the Lying Hildebeast by a stuffed ballot box.
    2, Whom ever makes up the biggest lie that you can Monica.
    3, Winning is crushing your opponent into utter defenselessness. Neither will win. Let the Battle Royal continue. I want to see the Hildebeast come off the top rope and a Hurricanrana on O-Bomb-a.
    4. Sea Salt & Vinegar potato chips (not kettle chips) with a ice cold diet creme soda.

    PCD (5c49b0)

  23. Sean P – The winner of the race is not like the Price is Right, ie. closest to the prize without going over, it is for the candidate that achieves a specific number. Neither one will or can have that number prior to the Superdelegates voting. Obama claiming to have an insurmountable lead is a lie. He still needs the Superdelegates to pass the threshold, and without MI or FL, he might fall short even then.

    JD (75f5c3)

  24. (1) Your predictions for today’s election?

    Regardless of outcome, Republicans and stand-up comics win big.

    (2) What are the proper criteria for either camp to declare victory?

    Not being a Democrat.

    (3) Shouldn’t the definition of “winning” be getting more votes and/or delegates than the other candidate?

    Obviously, given my choices above, no.

    (4) Kettle corn? Cheesy popcorn? Or traditional popcorn?

    I guess I need to try kettle corn sometime. Definitely not cheesy popcorn — don’t like it.

    McGehee (25adee)

  25. Hillary by 12 points.

    Pennsylvania is bordered by Ohio and New Jersey. Hillary won Ohio by 10 points and New Jersey by 10 points. Pennsylvania is older, whiter, and more female than either of those states.

    Obamania doesn’t fly in Mon Valley.

    2) If Hillary does outperform her Ohio/NJ winning numbers, then she can claim victory. Anything in the single digits is a very real victory for Obama because it will mean big turnouts in the urban cores of Philly and Pitt, along with large numbers of students.

    3) Right now “winning” is about cutting into your opponents constituencies and drawing away slices of the voting populace that you have lost previously.

    4) Traditional. The rest is fakery.

    WLS (68fd1f)

  26. (4) Cheesy Poofs !!

    MOG (f57a20)

  27. 1) Hillary by 7%
    2) Hillary by 5%, Obama if he’s ahead.
    3) Changing the rules again?!
    4) Microwaved + melted butter, if we were to watch. We won’t, we’ll watch something on tape.

    htom (412a17)

  28. I don’t know about 1, 2 and 3 but I’ll take extra butter on 4.

    DRJ (a431ca)

  29. I’m Calling it Hillary by 9 points.

    I think the media has dropped the ball. they are all blathering about the super delegates (a very undemocratic Democrat idea!) but the subject of the 3 million voters from Florida and Michigan has been dropped since they decided against a re-vote!

    Talk about disenfranchised!

    I’m going to skip the popcorn and go with Extra Hot Nacho Cheese dip. I think the Cheesiness, the corniness and the fiery spices are more fitting for the occasion.
    >:-)

    MaaddMaaxx (5d8bb9)

  30. What are the proper criteria for either camp to declare victory?

    When the other says that they “won’t be kicked around any more.”

    Face it, both Obama and Clinton are losers.

    Neo (cba5df)

  31. Traditional when watching a movie. Kettle corn at a pic-nic. You save cheesy for games of D&D.

    Alan Kellogg (1f872f)

  32. Real popcorn….made in a real pot…with real kernels, and real melted butter, fresh salt…

    Nothing better…

    As for the rest, I’ll just enjoy the show…the Democrat Party is a joke right now…

    reff (59b2ad)


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