Patterico's Pontifications

3/7/2008

Gore-Obama ’08 — the GOP Nightmare Scenario

Filed under: 2008 Election,Politics — WLS @ 8:11 pm

[Posted by WLS]

This is the nightmare scenario that wakes me up at night. And its so easy to see it develop.

Hillary wins big in Penn and PR, while Obama continues to sweep up some smaller states. Neither is close to the majority number, but Hillary refuses to give in.

More and more polling begins to suggest — as Pew does today — that Obama will lose a significant number of blue collar “Archie Bunker” democrats that are currently supporting Hillary, but will vote for McCain before Obama. This will give McCain states like Ohio, Michigan, and Penn.

Superdelegate/party leaders will know that they cannot alienate African-American voters by stealing the nomination away from Obama that he seems to have won, so voting for Hillary when she is behind in vote total and elected delegates is not an option.

Above and beyond that, they really just don’t want a rerun of the Billary Show in the WH.

Obama cannot put together an electoral map in November that produces a winning number.

Solution — go to Obama and ask him to take the No. 2 slot with Al Gore as the nominee. Obama then releases his delegates to vote for Gore after the Superdelegates place his name in nomination.

Gore then wins the nomination on the first ballot, and the Billary vampire is slain.

The African-American voter is satisfied because Obama is satisfied to be No. 2 behind Gore while he waits his turn.

Gore holds on to the “Archie Bunker” democrats that are backing Hillary right now.

Gore rolls to a 52-48 win over McCain with 350 electoral votes, winning states like Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, NewHampshire, and maybe even Florida, while holding on to everything he and Kerry won before.

– Posted by WLS

40 Responses to “Gore-Obama ’08 — the GOP Nightmare Scenario”

  1. It’s two, two, two messiahs in one!

    (shudder)

    mojo (8258c5)

  2. Let’s hope the Chicago powers get greedy and put the kibosh on your nightmare scenario.

    DRJ (a431ca)

  3. I get weird dreams like this when I take Rozerum, but they usually involve talking furniture and past girlfriends.

    If you think Black voters would get pissed off at Hillary taking the nomination with superdelegates, and yet would sit still for Obama being forced to the #2 spot to someone who didn’t even enter the primaries, you are definitely dreaming.

    Seriously, Blacks would not stand for this. They’d stay home. And that would take out almost 20% of the Democrat vote.

    Steverino (2c9e20)

  4. I’m betting that Al Gores’ finances won’t stand that kind of scrutiny right now, and he knows it. Not happening. There will be no Al Gore on the ticket.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  5. How would Gore/Obama win Virginia?

    Bush/Cheney won Virginia 52.5% to 44.4% in 2000.

    Timothy Watson (7da0bf)

  6. It is the internal split within the Democratic Party. What’s so wrong about that? The 2006 election was about Republicans disgusted with Republican corruption, Republican excess-spending (earmarks), and other Republican excesses. Contrary to the Pelosi-Reid Democrats, it was NEVER about the Iraq war. Let the Democratic Party (who opposed de-segregation) further split itself apart with its “dictatorship of the proletariat” dreams.

    509th Bob (056d31)

  7. Gore may not have invented the Internet, but he invented Global Warming and I think a lot of more scientifically astute voters are going to hold him responsible for the snakeoil he’s produced.

    /2 cents

    Darleen (187edc)

  8. Timothy @ 5: Kerry lost it 53.7-45.5.

    But Dems have carried the state-wide races in Virginia the last 2 election cycles. The Northern Virginia suburbs are more and more like major metropolitan areas, and their population is beginning to exceed that of the more rural south and west.

    Remember, California was solidly Republican state until immigration and increased liberal populations in San Fran and LA outgrew the more conservative regions of the state. The same is happening in Virginia. The GOP might hold it in 2008, but its going to slip away soon.

    WLS (68fd1f)

  9. Gore is a horrible candidate. There is no reason why a VP from the Clinton administration should have lost in 2000. The country was at peace, the economy was good in the late 90s, people seemed content. Yeah, he won the popular vote, but it shouldn’t have even been that close. He couldn’t even win his home state.

    Mark1971 (c92bfa)

  10. I’m not worried about this one; I just don’t see Gore finding his way in, even if he decided he wanted to play Messiah on two fronts.

    Gore has made so much money in the private sector preaching his Global Warming bull that no one in their right mind would want to turn back to politics and turn off the money faucet. Yet we know Gore isn’t in his right mind when it comes to the Presidency, given his denial in 2000, so it is possible that he might want back in. He just hasn’t been built up enough for it to work in this election cycle. There is no way Hillary would let the party deny her something and put Mr. Lockbox in her place. Even if Gore and Obama teamed up, the Clintons would burn down the house.

    So, while I don’t find the idea of Candidate Obama enticing to run against, this particular variation isn’t likely.

    NeoconNews.com (2a37f8)

  11. @WLS

    I disagree, there’s been a long history going back to 1977 in the case of the party of the Governor of Virginia being the opposite of the party of the President (see Allen, Gilmore, Warner, Kaine). Not to mention the mess that Gilmore (R) left the state. Spending grew more under a Republican than his Democratic successor. Not to mention that of the 39 elected Governors of Virginia, only 5 have been Republicans.

    The only reason that Webb beat Allen was the infamous “macaca” moment that was repeated every five minutes on the news and in the newspapers.

    If you look at the Representatives for Virginia, in the 103rd Congress (1993-95) there were 4 Republicans and 7 Democrats. Currently there are 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.

    And the reason that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has been doing so badly in the General Assembly (Virginia’s legislative body) is the outright incompetence of people like Speaker Howell and RPV Chairman John Hager.

    Timothy Watson (7da0bf)

  12. I was predicting something like this just this afternoon. A brokered Democratic convention, no clear winner on the first three ballots, then Gore submitts himself as the compromise candidate.

    I just didn’t extend the nightmare to including Obama as his veep.

    That being said, while I can see Gore getting the nomination as a compromise candidate in an attempt to save the Democratic Party, I don’t see him winning in November…he’s burned too many bridges with the American public. Among other things, we hate sore losers.

    gahrie (56a0a8)

  13. I disagree. Imagine just how angry the black community would be if Gore came in without even campaigning to be the number one guy…

    Maybe if he offered to be VP again but I just can’t see the Gore-Obama ticket scenario working out.

    voiceofreason2 (08fb4b)

  14. Obama is young, yes, but also very ambitious and he and the people around him are driven by their belief in their own wondrous destiny. No way he agrees to serve as Gore’s VP unless one of two things happens: (1) Gore agrees to serve a single term before handing the party over to Obama or (2) Obama becomes in essence a co-President, even more powerful than Cheney, which I can’t imagine Gore agreeing to. I am not going to lie awake at night worrying about this scenario.

    JVW (85f15c)

  15. Forget Gore because bringing him in is obvious insanity even for the insane, but which probably only makes bringing Gore in more likely for the Progs because they seem to be even more insane than the usual variety – since, you know, they have “hope”.

    J. Peden (925e5c)

  16. your “nightmare” reveals you as insufficiently imaginative:

    here’s the racial entitlement locomotive, barreling full-tilt down the track. five months away, but moving in the opposite direction on the same track, is the gender entitlement switch engine. can anyone prevent this awful collision? i give you….

    president oprah winfrey. justices stevens and ginsburg retire during her inaugural address, and she nominates dr. phil and star jones to replace them. the tenor of oral arguments and written opinions in our highest court takes a sharp turn!

    assistant devil's advocate (00cdfd)

  17. WLS:

    Remember, California was solidly Republican state until immigration and increased liberal populations in San Fran and LA outgrew the more conservative regions of the state.

    Huh? What does that mean?

    Since 1900, California has voted for the ultimately winning presidential nominee — Republican or Democratic — in 20 out of 25 elections.

    Of the five times that the state bucked the mood of the country, twice were for Republicans (Nixon in 1960 — recall Nixon was a Californian — and Ford in 1976) and twice were for Democrats (Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004). And the fifth vote was in 1912, when the state voted for Teddy Roosevelt… who ran as a (socialist) Progressive Party candidate, not a Republican, that year.

    Let’s forget the last two, since that’s probably when you mean immigration rising up and biting Republicans in the rump. But when you say California was “solidly Republican” before then, how do you explain the CA vote for Teddy Roosevelt over not just Democrat Woodrow Wilson, but also over the incumbent Republican president, William H. Taft?

    Not to mention four votes for FDR (all of his elections), the vote for Truman over Dewey in 1948, for Johnson over Goldwater in 1964, and the heavy votes for Clinton over Bush-41 in 1992 and for Clinton over Dole in 1996.

    In fact, you have to go all the way back to the election of 1884 to find the last time (before favorite-son Nixon in 1960) that California voted for the Republican (James Blaine) in a year that the Democrat, Grover Cleveland, won the election. But of course, in the election just preceding that one, CA voted for the Democrat (Winfield Scott Hancock) when the Republican (James Garfield) won!

    There is simply no way to sustain the claim that California used to be a “solidly Republican” state. A much better description is that California was always a bellwether state until 2000, when it became a Democratic state. But I don’t think that was because of immigration so much as the rise of “Silicon Valley” (the Santa Clara Valley) and all the liberal millionaires there and in Hollywood pouring money into the coffers of the California Democratic Party.

    That and the complete moral and political collapse of the Republican Party of California, which has not been able to recruit a popular candidate for statewide office since Gov. Pete Wilson’s reelection campaign of 1994.

    (Remember, Arnold Schwarzenegger ran against the GOP’s preferred candidate, Tom McClintock, in the replacement portion of the recall ballot for Gray Davis; McClintock came in a distant third.)

    Dafydd

    Dafydd ab Hugh (db2ea4)

  18. Thanks for the pre-Halloween thrill, ada (#17). Also see Steve Sailer‘s helpful suggestions for Hillary! on how to use Florida and Michigan to squeeze out a win in Denver.

    AMac (ea5371)

  19. Gore – why do people also claim that he couldn’t even win his home state – He won his home “state” of of Washington DC – Gore had little or no connection with Tenn for decades.

    Joe - Dallas (d29492)

  20. SPQR:

    I’m betting that Al Gores’ finances won’t stand that kind of scrutiny right now, and he knows it. Not happening. There will be no Al Gore on the ticket.

    Agreed.

    I’ll take your Capricorn Investment Group example and add Current Media to the mix. The article suggests that this could be an IPO bust waiting to happen.

    Paul (d4926e)

  21. Gore – why do people also claim that he couldn’t even win his home state – He won his home “state” of of Washington DC – Gore had little or no connection with Tenn for decades.

    He represented Tennessee in the House and the Senate for years, as his father did before him.

    Paul (d4926e)

  22. Neither candidate this close numerically to the nomination is going to take his name out of contention for the number one spot before the first ballot.

    It may be Al Gore’s dream that idealism and selflessness will prevail for the good of the party, and annoint him. It may be the dream of many of the Hollywood money folks that this will happen. But the candidates egos are too big to yield to someone in who hasn’t been bloodied and tested in the primaries.

    Maybe after the 20th or 30th ballot, but not at the start.

    Corky Boyd (a8cc75)

  23. Not to mention that the only ones who still take Gore’s movie seriously are idiots and school children – who are forced to.

    rhodeymark (923596)

  24. If McCain keeps making campaign spots like the one with Churchill and TR, and manages not to step on a landmine lovingly placed by his good friends in the media, it may not matter who the Dems run.

    On the other hand, the inconvenient facts about any candidate, such as Gore’s financial windfall from Globaloney, are almost irrelevant when you consider the demonstrated power the media has to make us believe whatever they think the Dems need us to believe about anything at any given time.

    sherlock (b4bbcc)

  25. Don’t see it happening, ever. Two big egos wouldn’t stand for it.

    My guess:

    Some perfectly timed revelation out of the Tony Rezko trial will bring Obama down just prior to the convention. Hillary will win the nomination and then go on to complain how the republicans treated Obama, just like her husband. The rest of the campaign will be to vote for Hillary because the mean racist republicians must be punished.

    Never hear the part about it being Hillarys fingers all over the perfectly timed revelation.

    Gerald A (e0bd60)

  26. The rest of the campaign will be to vote for Hillary because the mean racist republicians must be punished.

    Never hear the part about it being Hillarys fingers all over the perfectly timed revelation.

    You are not giving the black voters enough credit for political savvy. If Hillary wins the nomination I think you see a large number of black voters sitting out.
    Heck, combined with all the self-professed conservatives who feel they just can’t support McCain that may just bring the karma and balance to a rather strange election!

    voiceofreason2 (8db16c)

  27. I would actually leave the country if this occurred.

    gabriel (180095)

  28. daffyd–

    California was Republican until the Republicans chased out the Hispanic vote, which had been favoring them somewhat.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  29. A worse nightmare: Gore/Obama vs McCain/Thompson goes down to the wire. McCain gets a 100,000 vote national majority, but Gore leads the electoral vote, and will win if his 2100 vote majority in Illinois stands up.

    Unfortunately there are many reported irregularities in Chicago, including one African-American precinct with more votes than registered voters and a Republican precinct where the police took a ballot box that has gone missing….

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  30. You are not giving the black voters enough credit for political savvy. If Hillary wins the nomination I think you see a large number of black voters sitting out.

    I see the Hillary and Daley machines, with the help of a few friends in the MSM, of blaming it all on the republicans. Will she get away with it is the question. Considering the Clinton’s track record, I wouldn’t bet against it.

    Gerald A (e0bd60)

  31. “CHANGE? Hardly. Just new shiny faces to shine the light into to keep ‘em from noticing the grimy truth of it all. What’s new about more government programs that I get to pay for? Fuck Obama. And fuck Michelle O., Hillary, John McCain and George W. Bush for playing along with it. Everyone of them is pandering to the class warfare, the free ride, the easy ticket, the expanded and distant responsible Parent Government Educator Moralizer GOD. At my expense.”

    *****************

    ” Never underestimate the influence of a wife who bitch-slaps her husband in public. Early in Obama’s campaign, Michelle Obama could not restrain herself from belittling the senator. “I have some difficulty reconciling the two images I have of Barack Obama. There’s Barack Obama the phenomenon…. …And then there’s the Barack Obama that lives with me in my house, and that guy’s a little less impressive,” she told a fundraiser in February 2007.

    “For some reason this guy still can’t manage to put the butter up when he makes toast, secure the bread so that it doesn’t get stale, and his five-year-old is still better at making the bed than he is.” New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd reported at the time, “She added that the TV version of Barack Obama sounded really interesting and that she’d like to meet him sometime.” Her handlers have convinced her to be more tactful since then.

    If the women around him have no respect for him, why should I?”

    From here

    TC (1cf350)

  32. Dafyyd @ #18…
    Don’t forget that one of the reasons TR carried the state in ’12, is Hiram Johnson. Johnson rode a Progressive wave into the Governor’s chair in Sacramento, and a Senate seat in DC. This state was a hotbed of Progressivism (Norman Thomas usually did well here too), and other kook/nut-case theories about just about everything. Was, and still is!

    Another Drew (8018ee)

  33. “The African-American voter is satisfied because Obama is satisfied to be No. 2 behind Gore while he waits his turn.”

    I’m Republican. I’m black. I want to respectfully say, you’ve lost your mind if you think this — but I fear that you are serious when you write that.

    There is so much wrong with that sentence, that it was difficult for me to read the rest of the op/ed piece. Soft bigotry (and I hope it’s as painful for you to read my accusation towards you, as it was painful to me to read your sentence) isn’t partisan.

    Let’s remove it from the party, if we really want to gather more Americans into the Republican fold for the good of America.

    Anita (d6ed4b)

  34. I absolutely agree that the sentiment is dead wrong. You guys have heard the rumbling out there – nothing will stop the outpouring of resentment if BO leads in pledged delegates and is derailed. I’ll see Anita’s point and raise it – not just African-Americans, but all the weeping, sighing progressives, young and old who have drunk the kool-aid and seen the Messiah. This Cult of Personality runs deep and wide as the River Jordan.

    rhodeymark (923596)

  35. My prediction__Train wreck. There is no way to stop it at this point. Not that it troubles or keeps me awake at night.

    Agree with the comment on Gore’s finances not standing up to minimal scrutiny, not to mention the thought of having to defend his AGW nonsense. Although that might not be as problematic with McCain as his opponent.

    Understand Anita’s disgust with the premise regarding BHO and the #2 spot. I don’t think WLS was expressing his/her opinion so much as characterizing the Dem-Lib-MSM explanation for such an outcome, however. YMMV.

    As for blaming the Republicans for whatever transpires in Denver, you can make book on it. The Dem’s are already blaming their latest Florida debacle on Rep’s. It’s as if they were just bystanders and didn’t have a say, let alone a vote, in moving up their primary. And when presented with evidence of their complicity (FL roll-call vote data on the issue), expect them to say they were fed fauly intelligence or something similar. It was a “vote of choice, not necessity.” I can hear it now.

    Get your popcorn.

    Chris (8270f7)

  36. Gore could truly unite the party should Hillary and Obama tear each other to shreds between now and July. As you suggest, Gore/Obama would be absolutely unbeatable and would secure the White House in Democratic hands for 16 years.

    I for one truly hope your nightmare becomes a reality.

    James (bb8057)

  37. Gore running?

    This would be a marvelous chance to expose his hoax about climate worship.

    Even Mccain has bought into this sillyness. Which makes him a supporter of the left’s causes.(again)

    Don L (1f59a9)

  38. Gore-Obama, unbeatable? OK. The second (and third) coming. Can’t wait.

    Chris (8270f7)

  39. I have been predicting a Gore ’08 run since Super Tuesday… glad to see the press has finally opened their eyes to the very real possibility.

    indigo196 (3c98ec)


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