Patterico's Pontifications


Ain’t It A Beautiful Day? When You Can Visit A Political Website and Find A Passage As Reassuring As This:

Filed under: 2008 Election,Current Events,General,Politics — WLS @ 2:56 pm

[Posted by WLS] 

From Politico’s top dudes, Harris, Vande Hei, and Allen:

Obama’s failure to win Ohio and Texas and lock down the nomination — combined with Clinton’s newly defensible decision to press on despite a deficit in delegates — virtually guarantees Democrats a draining contest that will give Republicans a months-long head-start on the general election.

It will heighten racial, ethnic, gender, and class divisions already on stark display, raise awkward questions about the legitimacy of the nominating process, and inflict potentially lasting wounds on the eventual winner.

And forget about any chance that this looming brawl will be quieted by claims from Obama and commentators that Clinton has no reasonable path to victory.

Yes, Obama’s math is impressive — more delegates, more popular vote support, more states won. But Clinton aides argue reasonably that a race this close can be altered by a virtually limitless number of tactical maneuvers, unexpected events, or shifts in public perception.

For now, Clinton’s victories validated a last-ditch strategy that aides acknowledge rests overwhelmingly on persuading Democrats that the most credible black presidential contender in American history — despite his lead — is too untested to be awarded the nomination.
Simply put, there is now no way Clinton can win without inviting not only disappointment but a powerful sense of grievance among the Democratic party’s most loyal constituency, Obama’s fellow African-Americans.

The preparedness argument will be coupled, her advisers say, with two additional objectives that also are custom-made to produce months of chaos and ill will.

The first is an in-the-trenches fight to persuade unelected super-delegates to nominate Clinton as the stronger general election candidate even though Obama almost certainly will be leading among regular delegates.

The second is an effort to seat delegations from Florida and Michigan — where Clinton won — even though both pledged not to campaign there and Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. Democratic rules currently do not recognize those states because they acted unilaterally to schedule their primaries.

But if Clinton wins Pennsylvania — where she is for the moment the favorite — there is no reason to suppose that the nominating contest will be any more settled than it is today.

It will no longer be possible for Democratic National Committee chairmen and other party leaders to avert their gaze from the stand-off, as they have for all practical purposes been doing for several months.

Some Clinton aides Tuesday night indicated the campaign might be open to a re-vote in these states, as the best chance to get these delegations seated and backing her. 

Ahhhh — the sound of a coalition party in action.

22 Responses to “Ain’t It A Beautiful Day? When You Can Visit A Political Website and Find A Passage As Reassuring As This:”

  1. The enemy of my enemy is….

    BlacquesJacquesShellacques (324683)

  2. Well, does Hillary support affirmative action or doesn’t she? If she does, why is she trying to keep the black man down?

    nk (7b0075)

  3. Well, does Hillary support affirmative action or doesn’t she? If she does, why is she trying to keep the black man down?

    Hillary’s learning that affirmative action is great as long as you’re talking about someone else’s job. However, her hard-earned wrinkles will not allow for “the black man” to abscond with her destiny to become POTUS.

    rockindoug (6e7bf5)

  4. The Democrats (the party and its bloggers) need to back the strongest candidate in terms of ability. Why does the media cherrypick when it’s okay to identify someone as a black man. In other stories, this is frequently a cry of racism. Really, consistency is needed.

    Vermont Neighbor (c6313b)

  5. The fictional Lt. Col. Bill Kilgore (as immortalized by Robert Duvall) said it best: “I love the smell of napalm in the morning.”

    Beldar (433d17)

  6. Don’t forget that all the funddraising will continue to be sucked up for the primary battles, leaving less time to raise funds for the general election.

    But there is a negative in all this for the GOP. Media attention will be focused on the Democrats all spring and summer. McCain may try to make himself heard (and get at a token report from the MSM every night) but for all the good it will do him, he could be home whittling chairs. The media, and therefore the public, will be entertained, by Barak v. Hillary all summer long.

    kishnevi (2b3e28)

  7. Yeah, this is the downside of identity politics. With only one President, you can only appease one of your constituencies. And then the rest ask “what have you done for me today?”

    I predict the blacks will get thrown under the bus by the superdelegates. They never vote Republican no matter how they’re treated, wheres Hispanics not sufficiently pandered to are likely to go with McCain. From what I know of the system the superdelegates are mostly insiders who care more about electability than anything else, as they’re the ones hoping for jobs in January. They’re more likely to risk stay-at-home blacks than McCain-voting Democrats.

    Eric (09e4ab)

  8. i am not so sure about this senario, it could happen but its just as likely theres another way this goes down. the dem primary battle continues but instead of helping JMAC, it pushes him off the front page as the press follows an “exciting” contest. the victor comes out of the convention with a united party, a full head of steam and ALL the media BUZZ. the dems fussing is an old story and sometimes it hurts them, sometimes not. thing is, its absolutely a 2 edged sword here that could wind up hurting JMAC

    james conrad (7cd809)

  9. Obama losing the Presidency will be emblematic of the white power structure and the matriarchy, both black and white, dedicated to putting the black man down and keeping him down.

    nk (7b0075)

  10. Maybe this is a repeat of Mondale-Hart or, as WKRN calls it, 1984 on steroids but that assumes the Democrats can’t find a way to unite before, during or after their convention.

    I worry this may be more like the 1980 GOP race. Although the GOP primary was not as close as Clinton-Obama, there are similarities. Ronald Reagan was the presumptive nominee and he initially “stayed above the fray” and did not campaign much. Reagan and the pundits were shocked when he lost Iowa and other state primaries to George H.W. Bush.

    There was also significant ill-will between Reagan and Bush, e.g., Bush famously called Reagan’s economic plans “voodoo economics.” Nevertheless, at least for public consumption, they resolved their differences at the convention and won the general election.

    DRJ (d8934e)

  11. This is an absolute windfall for McCain and for anyone who despises identity politics. All we need do is file away for future use the attacks that are made against a woman or a minority. When called to account, we simply point to the offender we tape in the coming weeks.

    Rule number one in combat is that when your enemy is self-destructing, you stay out of the way and let them be. It’s how Reagan (and decades of patriots) killed the USSR. McCain won’t have to spend dollar one as significant wounds are inflicted upon his eventual opponent.

    I, like Ann Coulter, still don’t see how McCain wins. But the fracturing of the Dems is the best possible legal and non-tragic scenario imaginable.

    Ed (8166cd)

  12. BlacquesJacquesShellacques –

    The enemy of my enemy is… my enemy’s enemy, no more, no less. Rule 29.

    Cool name, BTW.

    Robin Munn (cc08f2)

  13. Yes, the dream contest: After tearing the heart of of half the Democrat party, the Hillary-Dodd ticket faces off against McCain-Powell or McCain-Rice.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  14. Or, see the Humphrey campaign of 1968 after the Chicago convention. I know McCarthy supporters who STILL get angry at the memory.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  15. McCain-Powell or McCain-Rice

    Didn’t you mean McCain–Steele, if not McCain–Keyes?

    Andrew J. Lazarus (c59296)

  16. Before Obama!mania took over, I thought Hillary was supposed to balance her ticket with someone a little less radical and slightly to the center. Or is it now key to cater to the groupies? I think she’s floating the possibility to stir the pot, but if not O… who…

    Vermont Neighbor (c6313b)

  17. Keyes? I CERTAINLY don’t mean Keyes! He lost his last election by what, 120%? To Obama.

    The man is not electable to anything.

    Besides, I kind of want someone with Presidential qualifications, and Keyes is so out there he didn’t make the debate cut, when Ron Paul did.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  18. RE: DRJ #10 correcto mundo, remembers the 1980 race well and hilly is already floating obama as #2 on the ticket. just because the dem race is competitive doesnt mean it ends up like chicago 1968, it could just as well be like reagan/bush in ’80.

    james conrad (7cd809)

  19. Or it might be like Reagan/Ford ’76 or Kennedy/Carter ’80 which left weak candidates wounded in their own party. Both lost, although Carter probably would have lost anyway.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  20. I could see McCain reaching out to Powell, but Rice wouldn’t even consider it, imo. I like McCain/Steele a LOT, but it just so happens that Johnny Mac and J.C. Watts have worked together in the past and I understand there is genuine friendship between the two. This website provides some info and advocacy. Draft JC

    rhodeymark (923596)

  21. How delicious. I seem to recall the Democratic mantra in 2000 – “Every Vote Counts” or some crap like that. Now they want to disenfranchise twelve states? Doesn’t sound very, umm, democratic.

    Proud Floridian (0f90ce)

  22. Rhodeymark,

    JMac and JC? Sounds good to me.

    DRJ (a431ca)

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