Patterico's Pontifications

2/15/2008

Can Hillary Clinton Hold on in Texas?

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 4:39 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

Patterico has asked me to guest blog this weekend so not only are you stuck with me but you are stuck with my Texas posts.

It’s been widely reported that Hillary Clinton has made Texas and Ohio her firewall states that she hopes can stop the Obama campaign. Aside from the irony of an (adopted) Arkansan having to rely on Texans for help, the real question is whether Texas Democrats will come through for Hillary.

Former President Bill Clinton is doing his best to help, including a Saturday speech in Austin – the home of many affluent and elite Texas Democrats. He also has stops planned in Amarillo and Lubbock. The polls show Hillary Clinton has a clear lead but Obama appears to be gaining momentum.

Today, Austin Mayor (and Democrat) Will Wynn endorsed Barack Obama. Not only does the Mayor have a great name for a politician but he may be bad news for Hillary Clinton. A Democrat who can’t hold Austin will have a problem taking Texas.

Can Hillary Clinton hold on in Texas? I don’t think so.

— DRJ

62 Responses to “Can Hillary Clinton Hold on in Texas?”

  1. Patterico has asked me to guest blog this weekend so not only are you stuck with me but you are stuck with my Texas posts.

    Nothing personal, DRJ, but this is bad timing. I blame Patterico. Today was the funeral of LAPD Officer Randy Simmons, which has turned out to be an all day affair, with more than 10,000 people,including those traveling from other countries, to honor him.

    tired (be28eb)

  2. Tired,

    I’m not sure I understand your point but if Patterico wants to add to his thoughts on Officer Simmons (in addition to this post), I’m sure he’ll do it when he thinks the time is right and in the manner he thinks is most appropriate.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  3. The polls show Hillary Clinton has a clear lead but Obama appears to be gaining momentum.

    You can pretty much cut and paste that sentence into the lead paragraph for every Democratic primary thus far.

    The TX primary is still a couple of weeks away and Clinton is now backed into a corner. If Obama starts gaining again, she’ll go ruthlessly negative and the downstream consequences of that (i.e., Obama’s supporters staying away during the general election) be damned; this year is her one and only chance.

    ras (fc54bb)

  4. DRJ,
    Glad to see you back. Who, in your opinion, is hurt most by the Sunny Lucas insurgent candidacy? Hillary or Obama? I believe Sunny is running as an R, but do Texas rules allow crossover primary votes, and will the radical flag discovered at her campaign headquarters have any negative impact?
    http://rachellucas.com/?p=630

    driver (faae10)

  5. DRJ! Welcome back.

    Am so sick of hearing about both these clowns. Oh and of hearing about Obama too.

    no one you know (1ebbb1)

  6. Hm, whadidIdo? End of my post didn’t make it – again. Meant to add: I hope Hillary just gets the nom ASAP so the smackdown can begin in earnest.

    no one you know (1ebbb1)

  7. Wait until Hillary wins or nearly wins the caucuses in Hawaii next week — Obama’s other home state.

    Remember, you heard it here first.

    WLS (68fd1f)

  8. Can Hillary Clinton hold on in Texas?

    Well, if she can’t, I hear the Alamo is a great place for a last stand.

    JayC (38bb32)

  9. WLS,

    “Nearly wins” means lose, as in “The NE Patriots nearly won the Superbowl.”

    The diff between her winning and losing HI, in terms of momentum and perception, is large. A moral victory will still be spun as a loss and will still, in fact, be a loss.

    ras (fc54bb)

  10. DRJ: Sorry you took offense. That’s why I said it wasn’t personal. But since you did anyway, stuff it. This is a blog that focuses on the LAT, LA news, and law enforcement. I would expect notice of Officer Simmons funeral because it was a huge event and I would expect it to be noticed today — not when Patterico returns from his three day taxpayer paid vacation. Nice to be able to suck off the gov. teat. If you don’t like the fact that I bring it up here as opposed to another thread, again tough.

    tired (be28eb)

  11. tired,

    Huh? What offense did DRJ take? Would it make you feel more important if he did?

    Anyway, the blog writers can write about what they choose to write about. It’s their call, not yours, and if it worries you, start your own blog, or raise the topic on an open thread.

    Oh, and get a girlfriend; you really need a girlfriend.

    ras (fc54bb)

  12. Tired,

    I have never thought of this as an LA/law enforcement blog and Officer Simmons’ funeral was not covered in the Texas newspapers I read so I wasn’t aware of it. However, now that I understand your point, it makes sense. I’ll try to cover his funeral later this evening.

    As for the contempt you hold for Patterico’s government job, that’s your problem.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  13. Yay! DRJ is back!!!

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  14. Driver #4,

    I don’t know Rachel and Sunny personally but I’ve lived in Texas long enough to know a political trick when I see it. I’ll let you in on a secret: Sunny isn’t really running for President. It’s a PR move to increase her name identification.

    Sunny really wants to run for Texas Governor in 2 years. You heard it here first.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  15. Tired, How do you figure he’s getting 3 days vacation?

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  16. I think Tired is a grumpy old man.

    Over the hill? What hill? I don’t remember any hill!

    Psyberian (d18acc)

  17. Hello, DRJ. Nice to see you back here.

    Here is an article by Michael Barone that cites recent polls showing the wicked witch has a good chance in TX.

    Stu707 (adbb5a)

  18. tired,

    You were rude to another commenter the other day and you’re being rude to people in this thread. Cut it out, now. One warning and then you’re gone. Don’t like that? Stuff it.

    Oh, one more thing: you want to see something covered on a blog? Then start a blog and cover it.

    Patterico (8cb890)

  19. I think she is done in Texas. I think it will be within 10% but Obama will prevail. I would almost expect her to drop soon after that in the hopes that she could take a stab at it in 2012 if McCain were to win.
    No VP spot for her and the Clinton machine would go into hibernation until after Nov. She would give the happy happy joy joy appearance during the campaign but the real behind the scenes power moves they could help with will not be offered.

    An Obama-McCain matchup has lots of interesting dynamics for the political junkies. Do seniors gravitate to McCain? How well does the GOP do with Hispanics relative to Bush’s numbers in 2004? Does the bias of some in both parties manifest itself in enough numbers to offset what would be a record turnout for black voters? Does the hard core right sabotage a McCain campaign and learn the hard way undoing 8 years of very liberal policies is not easily accomplished?

    voiceofreason2 (605d76)

  20. She needs at least 20% in Texas… If Hillary ends up with anything less than 60% is BOTH states, and she’s screwed…

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  21. I’m glad to see you posting this weekend, DRJ. You’re perspectives are good to mull over and I personally enjoy a Texas birdseye view of things.

    Re Hillary and Texas… if at the end of the day it indeed comes down to the ‘likability factor’, it doesn’t really matter what state she’s in.

    Dana (f0e533)

  22. Hello Scott, Dana, Stu, and NoOneYouKnow. Good to see you all, too.

    Stu #17 – That’s an interesting Barone article but it sounds like he doesn’t know what will happen, either.

    WLS – Do you really think Hillary will win Hawaii?

    DRJ (3eda28)

  23. Hey tired:

    You want to show you care about Officer Simmons?

    Send me a donation of $100 or more at patterico AT gmail DOT com. I’ll send it all to Off. Simmons’ family.

    You do that, and I’ll do a post about Officer Simmons. What’s more, I’ll try to cover an angle heretofore uncovered by Big Media.

    Or you can hoard your $100. Your choice, pal.

    Patterico (0868a7)

  24. My view:

    Hillary wins Texas.

    But loses Ohio.

    Patterico (72a7f1)

  25. I also think Texas and Ohio will split but my instinct says Hillary will do better in Ohio, not Texas.

    EDIT: Of course, the only Texas-Ohio predictions I’ve ever been right about were in football, so take this with a grain of salt.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  26. Peggy Noonan had an interesting take on Hillary entitled ‘Confidence or Derangement’ addressing the possibility of her not being able to close the deal and not facing that possibility:

    “Her (Hillary’s)response to what from the outside looks like catastrophe? A glassy-eyed insistence that all is well. “I’m tested, I’m ready, let’s make it happen!” she yelled into a mic on a stage in Texas on the night of her latest defeat. This is meant to look like confidence. Whether or not you wish her well probably determines whether you see it as game face, stubbornness or evidence of mild derangement.

    http://online.wsj.com/public/article/declarations.html

    Dana (f0e533)

  27. A Democrat who can’t hold Austin will have a problem taking Texas.

    Basis?

    Paul S. (289d5e)

  28. Paul S.,

    The Texas Democratic primary/caucus system is complicated and basically gives preference to Democrats that vote in urban areas like Dallas, Houston, and Austin. Also, Austin (Travis County) is one of the few Democratic cities in Texas, and Texas has few Democratic voters relative to the overall population (800,000 in the 2004 primary) — although far more are expected to turn out in this election.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  29. Paul,

    Austin is widely regarded at the most liberal of Texas’s cities…

    If a dem can’t take Austin, they have trouble…

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  30. Paul S.,

    Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have agreed to debate next Thursday at the LBJ School in Austin. It’s my recollection that only 500 tickets are available via a Democratic lottery, and I don’t think any tickets are being made available to the general public. Thus, the people at the event will be the Democratic faithful. It will be interesting to see which candidate they favor.

    EDIT: I may be wrong about the tickets. One of the published reports indicates there may be some general public tickets available.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  31. DRJ: I’m thinking of voting in the Democratic Primary. For Hillary, because I think she’d be easier for McCain to beat in November, and the less bad option if the Dems win (which means I’m capable of seeing an upside to a president who starts office on Day #1 with 48.9% of the American public despising her and eager to oppose her down to her nomination for postmaster in Dawson County, Texas).

    My question is this: Can my soul be redeemed if I do this?

    Beldar (3df1f4)

  32. HOWDY & WELCOME BACK DRJ……”Can Hillary Clinton hold on in Texas? I don’t think so.” I agree, obama has been cutting into every group of hillary voters, including women. lets face it, hilly is an awful speaker on the campaign trail and shes got no BUZZ at all. add in that even dem partisans have grown weary of clinton drama and i say its pretty much over. its McCain VS Obama in ’08.

    james conrad (7cd809)

  33. another thing that maybe working against hilly? the clintons have led the democrat party since 1991, 17 yrs is a pretty long run. during this time how many loyal dems have fallen on their sword for the sake of the clintons? i bet ALOT. additionally, the clintons have led thru fear so there’s very little love left for them.basically, i think the party has finally had enough of the clintons and just wants them to go away from the national stage. if hilly loses texas the clinton machine is DEAD and it will have been the dem voters who did the deed.

    james conrad (7cd809)

  34. Patterico: They were rude to me the other day and today — first. And if you are so biased you can’t acknowledge it, you can stuff it.

    And as to your solicitation of a donation, I already did give to the trust fund that was set up. Why on earth would I or anyone else need you as a middleman? Or, are you attempting to supplement your gov. retirement? And, once again, stuff it.

    tired (be28eb)

  35. My question is this: Can my soul be redeemed if I do this?

    That is a very difficult question, Beldar. For about two thousand years a bitter debate has been raging about the Jews’ collective sin for rejecting the Messiah. What will we be incurring if we reject the Obamessiah? Sigh. We can only trust in the infinite Mercy of a Benevolent Providence.

    nk (616f8b)

  36. “Can Hillary Clinton Hold on in Texas?”

    Don’t be silly. Of course not. Hey did you guys know that Dr. J is not only a doctor, but a woman? It’s amazing how far America has come in the last 5 years.

    A woman doctor. Amazing!

    Kevin (3efe14)

  37. As a Dallas resident, we have been insulated from the constant barrage of political ads – due to the state generally not being competitive in presidential elections. Unfortunately, the peace was broken with the constant Obama TV ads. Obama is running a very appealing and persausive health care ad.

    For majority of the electorate who at best have only a superficial understanding of economics, this and similar ads will be all that is needed to vote for Obama.

    I will be crossing the line to vote for Hillary. I may be slightly resigned to a Democrat in the white house. the rationale for voting for hillary, is with her high negatives, she will hopefully be less able to enact and or expand the socilist ideals both hillary and obama wish the US will become.

    For those progressives out there – Please provide any data which shows the social/economic status of the populace improved with the implemtation of socilism or even with leftist policies.

    Joe - Dallas (d29492)

  38. “Can Hillary Clinton Hold on in Texas?”

    If she gets a new broomstick she may have a chance. Her old one is getting a little shabby from all the miles she’s been putting on it.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  39. tired,

    That’s the answer I expected.

    Buh-bye.

    Patterico (5ac6dc)

  40. You were the one who was rude, as I recall. I contemplated giving you a warning then.

    Why do I need to be a middleman? Because if I don’t have proof you donated, I don’t believe it.

    Won’t miss you one bit.

    Patterico (5d466a)

  41. Here is the thread where tired said “JD: You’re an idiot.” with no provocation whatsoever. JD had merely said I predicted your response in my post.

    So you lied about who was rude. It was you.

    Why wouldn’t you lie about giving Officer Simmons’s family money?

    Patterico (28851b)

  42. Hey did you guys know that Dr. J is not only a doctor, but a woman?

    She’s also an NBA Hall of Famer. :)

    Paul (bcc0a7)

  43. well dang, normally i am all for a bit of drama on the blogs but this time i gotta go along rico, insulting DRJ is over the line, WAY OVER.

    james conrad (7cd809)

  44. Beldar #31,

    I was thinking about voting for Obama for the same reason so you don’t have to redeem yourself with me.

    My thinking is that Obama will be easier for McCain to beat because his extreme positions will come back to haunt him in the general election, whereas Hillary can continue to claim the moderate mantle. Obama will also look young next to McCain – a plus in some people’s eyes but given his weakness at debating, I don’t think it will serve him well. (I think it will be a reprise of Dan Quayle and Lloyd Benson.) Hillary will make McCain look like a big bad man and there are a lot of female voters that will respond to that.

    But who knows? After reading about the Texas Democratic primary rules, I’m not sure it will matter much who I vote for because I’m in West Texas. A Texas county adjacent to mine had one Democratic vote in the last Presidential election and I even know the guy who cast that vote. I’m sure it was a vote on principle but talk about a wasted vote. Your Houston vote will count more than that but you may also have to follow up in the Democratic caucus in June … and if you do that then your soul may not be redeemable. (Just kidding!)

    DRJ (3eda28)

  45. Are you sure about this, Patrick? It’s not my goal to run your commenters off every time I post. Quite the opposite.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  46. DRJ,
    Really glad to have your Texas perspective this weekend.

    Vermont Neighbor (c6313b)

  47. Hey, Neighbor!

    DRJ (3eda28)

  48. DRJ,

    Don’t feel bad. You’re doing us a service by helping to weed out the shmucks… :)

    Post again, and maybe we can get Andie to get tossed. :)

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  49. DRJ,

    Austin (Travis County) is one of the few Democratic cities in Texas, and Texas has few Democratic voters relative to the overall population (800,000 in the 2004 primary) — although far more are expected to turn out in this election.

    That’s all true. But this is a primary election, not a general election. In a general election, I’d agree that if a Democrat couldn’t take Austin, he’d have little hope of taking anything else in Texas either. But in a primary, all the candidates are Democrats.

    The Democratic electorate in Austin does not mirror the Democratic electorate elsewhere in Texas. The “typical” Democrat in Austin is a latte liberal, white, middle income and uber educated. That’s an Obama voter.

    Even if Clinton carries the rest of Texas, I would expect Obama to carry Travis County, home to Austin. Or, to put it another way, even if Clinton loses Austin, that doesn’t mean she’ll lose the state.

    We’ll know soon.

    Paul S. (289d5e)

  50. Yikes! I thought people were just joking around, so I jumped in. For the record, I didn’t mean it when I called DRJ a woman!

    😉

    Kevin (3efe14)

  51. Scott Jacobs, supra:

    Austin is widely regarded at the most liberal of Texas’s cities…

    If a dem can’t take Austin, they have trouble…

    Scott, your observation is applicable to a general election, not a primary. In the Democratic primary, all the candidates are Democrats. One of them will win the state, whether they carry Austin or not.

    Paul S. (289d5e)

  52. LMAO Kevin.

    Careful, or Andie will come and decide that you hate your mom because of that joke!

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  53. Kevin #50,

    Unless you know something we don’t know, DRJ is a woman. But she says “DRJ” are her initials (my thought had been that it stood for Doctor Juris since she is also a lawyer).

    As for tired, DRJ, you didn’t run him off. Patterico did. And he should continue to do that to anyone who addresses you that way.

    nk (6ef207)

  54. NK is right about my gender and initials, but enough about me. You want me to get a big ego or something?

    Paul S. – You make a good point that Austin Democrats are not representative of all Texas Democrats. I assume Hillary is counting on the border Democrats (who are largely Hispanic) and on East Texas Democrats, and that may be more than enough. But Dallas and Houston Democrats are (I think) mostly black voters and they will probably turn out for Obama. If the DMN’s article I linked to is accurate, Democratic operatives expect a record turnout in those areas and it also seems that the urban votes may count more in the Democratic scheme than rural votes will.

    So I think that makes Austin very important. Perhaps even the tie-breaker.

    DRJ (3eda28)

  55. DRJ,

    I’m happy to get rid of that guy. There was enough there to get rid of him even absent his inappropriate comments to you. Such as his comments about me and my job, and his implication that I would steal money from a dead officer’s family.

    tired is scum.

    That’s why, as others have noted, to the extent that you were responsible, you’ve done us all a favor. I banned tired with great joy. In fact, I was *hoping* he would respond exactly as he did, so I *could* ban him (while still being able to say I gave him a chance to reform).

    Patterico (fd0ebf)

  56. DRJ at 54 —

    Oh, I agree that Obama may do well here. He may even carry our state. I was merely responding to your suggestion that if a Democrat doesn’t carry Austin, he can’t carry Texas. In a primary election, I don’t think that’s necessarily true.

    To turn to related point, here’s one other Texas demographic Hillary may have to fear: Republicans. With our party’s nominating contest effectively over, Texas Republicans may get into mischief on March 4. If they cross over in any appreciable number, I doubt that bodes well for Mrs. Clinton.

    I myself still haven’t decided whether to vote in the Texas Democratic primary. (I’ve never done it before, and I think it would feel weird.) But if I do, I’ll vote for Obama. A chance to stick it to the Clintons is tempting.

    Paul S. (289d5e)

  57. … but enough about me. You want me to get a big ego or something?

    A bigger salary, at least. Patterico offered to quadruple it last time if you would stay.

    nk (6ef207)

  58. Would a bigger ego get you to stay? :)

    Scott Jacobs (a1de9d)

  59. Thanks, Paul S, and I agree with you. I was focused on this election and not the average Texas Democratic primary, with which I have very little experience because I haven’t voted for a Democrat since Ann Richards ran for Governor against Claytie. Now I’m thinking along the same lines you are. It’s a weird feeling, isn’t it?

    DRJ (3eda28)

  60. Mc Cain will be next President because Hilary supporters will favor MCCain over Osama republicans have voted for him and want him in because they know he will get Hilarys votes

    alabamajack (c36902)

  61. It’s been great fun yesterday and parts of the day before, watching “duh meedja” backtrack from their former ObamaUberAlles pronouncements. I went to three rallies: one with Bill Clinton and two with Hillary. Let me tell you about the first one, Bill Clinton:

    I got a robocall at 10AM Tuesday the 26th, telling me to be at Mountain View College at 11AM to hear Bill Clinton speak. (Presumably everyone got the same robocall at the same time) This took everyone flatfooted–I had a Dr’s appointment at 11:30 AM but I called up and advanced it to 2PM

    I headed over to Mountain View College at 10:30–got there at quarter to, and found at least 1,000 people, already there!. I better add, it was an outdoors rally and the temperature was somewhere between 30 and 35 degrees. Everybody waiter for Clinton–shivering and freezing–for AN HOUR AND A HALF until he finally showed up.

    People kept pouring into the rally area and they soon had to open up two more areas to hold the crowd. Cameras were on a podium facing the speaker, 15 or so feet back, continually filming the crowd, each other, whatever. The crowd was interesting–they kept coming and coming. I began to understand then, that the media block on any move by Hillary Clinton, would have a hard time keeping up with this!

    Well, Clinton finally showed up and gave his talk. You could have heard a pin drop–in fact the only noise was the occasional cameraman changing cartridges in his Steadicam, and that sure didn’t bother anyone.

    He didn’t talk for long–only a half hour–and then at the end of the talk for Hillary, he grinned and said, “…let’s have some fun,” and proceeded to tell a bunch of jokes, some funny, some not. At that time some people began to leave; Bill looked at them and said, “I guess it’s a good thing that I was President for 8 years, instead of trying to be a comedian…” and we all clapped in agreement.

    Point being: The unofficial headcount at this impromptu rally–at which the same robocall had caught everyone as flatfooted as me–was, two thousand people showed up–and that’s a conservative estimate. Now–what did the “meedja” make of this rally? Remember–all those cameras running?

    SIX SECONDS. That’s right–“Meedja” gave that huge, impromptu rally for Hillary Clinton, SIX SECONDS of airtime that night. There was a tight shot of the podium where Bill Clinton was standing, and they showed about 25 people. I know–they didn’t show me, and I was in the third row center. I had barely enough time to register all that, when the six-second shot cut off.

    The media dishonesty was stunning. The fix was so clearly in, that all the people at the rally formed an impromptu online group to protest it. No WONDER Hillary looked like she was losing to Barack–and now, no wonder that most people don’t take “duh Meedja’s” pronouncements with any more seriousness than they would, Scooby-do’s. Result–

    Now, Duh M’s paying a tad more attention to Hillary’s campaign, because the same thing happened in two more rallies since then–the one in Ft Worth yesterday (Saturday) and the one in Fair Park Colosseum, later that day. This time, D-M actually showed some of the people there. And, gave the rallies a whole 15 seconds of airtime, and actually gave a line or two of Hillary’s speech! Why?

    All I can figure is, that the disgust toward D-M (which reached fever pitch with the media’s treatment of the Bill Clinton rally) must’ve reached even Rupert Murdoch’s ears. Clearly he told his henchpeople to give the Clintons more than six seconds’ airtime, and to show more than 25 people, when two thousand actually showed up.

    So now Duh Meedja’s falling all over themselves, allowing as to how they ‘occasionally get it wrong’ and how in fact, occasionally ‘even the polls get it wrong’. Now, Barack Obama’s ‘huge lead in Texas’ has evaporated to something closer to the truth–Hillary Clinton still maintains a considerable lead in both Texas AND Ohio.

    And now the sneering, dishonest-to-the-core political hacks have backed off their cries for Hillary to “step out and let the clearly more popular Obama have Texas”. If she had done so–then indeed she would not have had the judgment to be America’s president. Hillary, is walking away with Texas, leaving the pundits with a whole lot of rotten egg on their faces.

    And nobody deserves it more than that biased bunch.

    Val Fitzgerald (d671ab)

  62. The only thing–and this does bother me–we all voted in the early voting, by paperless touch-screen. No choice–had to use them. Because of their lack of any credibility whatsoever, those machines haven’t been allowed in the general elections–but in the primaries, I guess anything goes.

    So that tells me the answer to my puzzlement– WHY, suddenly, the emphasis on the primaries? Hillary might yet be short-stopped–but that’s crooked election officials, and that’s a whole different thing than crooked media.

    Besides, the now-instantly-verifiable, entry-and-exit polling will give those machines quite the run for their money…

    Val Fitzgerald (d671ab)


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